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Old 27.09.2020, 19:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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As of today it seems the virus has mutated to be more contagious but slightly less deadly. There's no way of knowing whether it will mutate the other way.
Do you know any studies on that or is this your perception from looking at the much increased case numbers yet no real increase in deaths? Asking out of genuine interest as I have not seen any scientific opinion on that.
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  #13122  
Old 27.09.2020, 20:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you know any studies on that or is this your perception from looking at the much increased case numbers yet no real increase in deaths? Asking out of genuine interest as I have not seen any scientific opinion on that.
I read an article recently on the sequencing of the mutations so far. It's kind of nerdy which is why I didn't share originally. I'll see if I can find it again.

Edit-
This is a long article, sorry. It isn't the article I read, but it is a balanced piece covering a particular mutation (D614G) that has caught the interest of virologists. Some virologists think this mutation has caused the virus to be more contagious but somehow less deadly. Others disagree. Virologist David Montefiori published his findings in a peer-reviewed journal in July (info in the article).
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

Last edited by 3Wishes; 27.09.2020 at 20:31.
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  #13123  
Old 27.09.2020, 21:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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You want the reaction time as short as possible. Hospitalisatons are delayed by one week, deaths another 1-2 weeks. If the numbers were available the focus would probably be on infections as that would reduce the delay by one week or so.

Look back to March/April and consider the difference two or three weeks can make.
I get the time lag but as we understand more about this virus, we become more adept in treatment (steroids, proning... and forget ventilators unless it is the last resort!).

I am not sure why the NHS, as RufusB mentioned, is overwhelmed at the moment. Maybe there are systemic issues in UK health care system that need to be addressed? That said, the US healthcare system needs an overhaul and then some. Most who have succumbed to COVID (outside of those in nursing homes or elder care facilities) have pre-existing comorbidities and many are unaware as they lack access to healthcare or frankly, are in denial about their condition.

Not easy but I worry about the long term effects on people in isolation who are scared to get treatment/screening. And those who have lost their jobs; others who already struggle with anxiety? I won't even venture into the economic costs here.

It is not just those who are vulnerable; it is also about those who have become vulnerable. That is my worry/concern. At what point do the efforts to contain this virus exceed those who could be affected versus those who become afflicted?

Last edited by terrifisch; 27.09.2020 at 21:43.
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  #13124  
Old 27.09.2020, 23:20
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Re: Coronavirus

Here's a story featured in the Swiss press, who are far more optimistic than the UK media who seem intent on scaring Britain senseless and dancing with joy at every new bankruptcy.

The epidemiologist Marcel Salathé, professor at the ETH Lausanne and member of the federal coronavirus task force, sees clear progress in the fight against the coronavirus.

Just a month ago, the epidemiologist Marcel Salathé strongly criticized the crisis management of the Confederation and the cantons.

Now the member of the federal government's Corona Science Task Force sees a silver lining on the horizon.

As early as the beginning of 2021, Switzerland could be so far that Covid-19 is no longer worse than flu.

Whether it will be necessary to wear a mask at work in the coming winter remains to be seen. He does not share the opinion of people who feared that there would be a new wave of contagion in winter. On the contrary: he is assuming that the situation will soon improve, Salathé told the NZZ am Sontag.

The epidemiologist currently also sees the development of vaccines as very promising. The moment a vaccine is available or a drug is working and hospitalizations are under control, the situation will change completely. Then Covid-19 would become a flu-like disease.


Selected and translated clips from
https://www.20min.ch/story/covid-19-...e-916701903551
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  #13125  
Old 28.09.2020, 01:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not easy but I worry about the long term effects on people in isolation who are scared to get treatment/screening. And those who have lost their jobs; others who already struggle with anxiety? I won't even venture into the economic costs here.

It is not just those who are vulnerable; it is also about those who have become vulnerable. That is my worry/concern. At what point do the efforts to contain this virus exceed those who could be affected versus those who become afflicted?
There's a very fine balance between the needs and care of people with pre-existing conditions within your post which I'm seeing replicated right across social and main stream media. How is society supposed to choose between the people with pre-existing anxiety and those with pre-existing physical ailments? One does not, and should not trump the other.

There's a significant sector of society which is rarely mentioned in the media (social or otherwise) yet appears on the vulnerable lists of the UK and Switzerland, and it's pregnant women.
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  #13126  
Old 28.09.2020, 07:00
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Re: Coronavirus

Two observational studies have shown a correlation in viral load and disease severity. In one study:

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The authors concluded that the downward trend in viral load may indicate that the pandemic is becoming less severe, implementation of physical distancing and lockdowns may have decreased overall exposure to the coronavirus, and analyzing viral loads over time may be a good way to assess pandemic progress.
And the other:

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Researchers analyzed data from 373 COVID-19 patients in an emergency department in the northern city of Negrar to assess a possible association between the severity of coronavirus signs and symptoms with viral load as the pandemic transitioned from high to low transmission.

As patient viral loads declined over the course of the pandemic, the percentage of patients admitted to the ICU declined substantially from March (6.7%) to April (1.1%), and May (0.0%).

"As the epidemiological context changed from high to low transmission setting, people were presumably exposed to a lower viral load, which has been previously associated to less severe clinical manifestations," the authors wrote.
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  #13127  
Old 28.09.2020, 07:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Two observational studies have shown a correlation in viral load and disease severity. In one study:



And the other:
Really interesting.
Would mean that viral load is more important than strain of the virus - all those soft measures; social distancing, masks, hygiene are actually working - good news all round, also for the vaccine and treatments.
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  #13128  
Old 28.09.2020, 12:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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I get the time lag but as we understand more about this virus, we become more adept in treatment (steroids, proning... and forget ventilators unless it is the last resort!).

I am not sure why the NHS, as RufusB mentioned, is overwhelmed at the moment. Maybe there are systemic issues in UK health care system that need to be addressed? That said, the US healthcare system needs an overhaul and then some. Most who have succumbed to COVID (outside of those in nursing homes or elder care facilities) have pre-existing comorbidities and many are unaware as they lack access to healthcare or frankly, are in denial about their condition.

Not easy but I worry about the long term effects on people in isolation who are scared to get treatment/screening. And those who have lost their jobs; others who already struggle with anxiety? I won't even venture into the economic costs here.

It is not just those who are vulnerable; it is also about those who have become vulnerable. That is my worry/concern. At what point do the efforts to contain this virus exceed those who could be affected versus those who become afflicted?
Sure but the pandemic is here and it is a major emergency that people are right to worry about.
You write about people in isolation who are scared to get treatment/screening. But without isolation would they still be scared to get treatment/screening, I suspect they would.
How many of the stress effects would remain even with no lockdowns?
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  #13129  
Old 28.09.2020, 13:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Now the member of the federal government's Corona Science Task Force sees a silver lining on the horizon.

As early as the beginning of 2021, Switzerland could be so far that Covid-19 is no longer worse than flu.

Selected and translated clips from
https://www.20min.ch/story/covid-19-...e-916701903551
Selected indeed, or maybe selective. I searched out and read the French version of the story and realised that what he actually said was
Quote:
«Dès qu’un vaccin sera disponible ou qu’un médicament sera efficace et que les hospitalisations seront sous contrôle, la situation changera complètement», assure le professeur à l’École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EFFL). La maladie à coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) sera alors au même niveau qu’une grippe saisonnière, selon lui.
My translation:
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As soon as a vaccine becomes available or an effective treatment is found, and that hospitalisation rates are stabilised, the situation will change completely.... and Covid-19 will then be on a par with seasonal flu.
So not quite the same meaning as you inferred.
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  #13130  
Old 28.09.2020, 13:56
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Re: Coronavirus

I don't know a lot about vaccines, but I found this article interesting (sorry, clickbait headline).

Half a million sharks may need to die for vaccine

Originally I saw a different article but it didn't explain why such a measure could be necessary. Learn something new every day.
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  #13131  
Old 28.09.2020, 17:15
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Re: Coronavirus

Some promising results of early tests of different nasal sprays to combat COVID-19; if the full tests are OK then once or twice a week usage is claimed to be enough.
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Old 28.09.2020, 17:50
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Re: Coronavirus

A note for clarity:

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I searched out and read the French version of the story and realised that what he actually said was

My translation:
Quote:
As soon as a vaccine becomes available or an effective treatment is found, and that hospitalisation rates are stabilised, the situation will change completely.... and Covid-19 will then be on a par with seasonal flu.
So not quite the same meaning as you inferred.
By which I meant that the article you quoted mentioned his optimism about things being "flu-like" by early 2021, appearing to separate this from the bit about vaccines or treatments, whereas I read it that it's entirely dependent thereon. Poor journalism, for sure.
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Old 28.09.2020, 17:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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Some promising results of early tests of different nasal sprays to combat COVID-19; if the full tests are OK then once or twice a week usage is claimed to be enough.
Very early days yet, assuming you're referring to this one

Not even at phase 2 entry into humans testing yet, so don't expect anything for some months or even years (in the normal flow of things) yet.
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  #13134  
Old 28.09.2020, 20:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am not sure why the NHS, as RufusB mentioned, is overwhelmed at the moment. Maybe there are systemic issues in UK health care system that need to be addressed?
The NHS is not overwhelmed at the moment, but a rather scaremongering report in the Guardian a few weeks ago claimed that it would be if there were a second wave this winter - and that it would have been if it had had to deal with the first wave alongside winter flu... Its analysis excluded capacity of the Nightingale hospitals and the private sector. As the Nightingale hospitals were severely underused, if at all, the first time round, it's difficult to assess how overstretched the NHS would be. But of course there are systemic issues too.

Last edited by chrissie7; 28.09.2020 at 20:31. Reason: added last sentence
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  #13135  
Old 28.09.2020, 21:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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The NHS is not overwhelmed at the moment, but a rather scaremongering report in the Guardian a few weeks ago claimed that it would be if there were a second wave this winter - and that it would have been if it had had to deal with the first wave alongside winter flu... Its analysis excluded capacity of the Nightingale hospitals and the private sector. As the Nightingale hospitals were severely underused, if at all, the first time round, it's difficult to assess how overstretched the NHS would be. But of course there are systemic issues too.
Yes, the main factor in several countries was systemic

Doctors working in ICU's were not informed how to transfer patients to those reserve facilities and there was no solid process to make the transfer.
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Old 28.09.2020, 21:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Two observational studies have shown a correlation in viral load and disease severity. In one study:



And the other:
Hm. Couldn't that be the same phenomenon that caused the other study to look into virus mutation (spreading faster but less deadly)? So many papers, so much still to be proven.
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  #13137  
Old 28.09.2020, 22:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Here's a story featured in the Swiss press, who are far more optimistic than the UK media who seem intent on scaring Britain senseless and dancing with joy at every new bankruptcy.

The epidemiologist Marcel Salathé, professor at the ETH Lausanne and member of the federal coronavirus task force, sees clear progress in the fight against the coronavirus.

Just a month ago, the epidemiologist Marcel Salathé strongly criticized the crisis management of the Confederation and the cantons.

Now the member of the federal government's Corona Science Task Force sees a silver lining on the horizon.

As early as the beginning of 2021, Switzerland could be so far that Covid-19 is no longer worse than flu.

Whether it will be necessary to wear a mask at work in the coming winter remains to be seen. He does not share the opinion of people who feared that there would be a new wave of contagion in winter. On the contrary: he is assuming that the situation will soon improve, Salathé told the NZZ am Sontag.

The epidemiologist currently also sees the development of vaccines as very promising. The moment a vaccine is available or a drug is working and hospitalizations are under control, the situation will change completely. Then Covid-19 would become a flu-like disease.


Selected and translated clips from
https://www.20min.ch/story/covid-19-...e-916701903551
But notice the use of the word "assuming" in there. He also seems to be assuming that a successful vaccine will be developed soon and that it will be quickly and easily made available to the overwhelming majority of people across the planet.

Trust me, I hope he's right. But I don't think anyone really knows what the situation is going to be like a few months from now or a year from now. And I think it's a bit absurd to base one's beliefs or expectations on hope alone. So yes, we can hope that there won't be a bad "second wave" this winter, as predicted, and we can hope that a successful vaccine will soon be made available, but only time will tell.

Salathé may also have a bit of a personal bias in trying to project an optimistic outcome, being that he is a member of the government's coronavirus task force. Perhaps he just wants it to seem as though they have everything under control.

But as I said, only time will tell. I think this pandemic has been a steep learning curve for our species overall.
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Old 28.09.2020, 23:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Very early days yet, assuming you're referring to this one

Not even at phase 2 entry into humans testing yet, so don't expect anything for some months or even years (in the normal flow of things) yet.
Sure but so far as I understand the approval path for things like nasal sprays and gargle cleansers is much quicker and less rigorous than for medicines and vaccines.
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Old 29.09.2020, 07:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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But notice the use of the word "assuming" in there. He also seems to be assuming that a successful vaccine will be developed soon and that it will be quickly and easily made available to the overwhelming majority of people across the planet.

Trust me, I hope he's right. But I don't think anyone really knows what the situation is going to be like a few months from now or a year from now. And I think it's a bit absurd to base one's beliefs or expectations on hope alone. So yes, we can hope that there won't be a bad "second wave" this winter, as predicted, and we can hope that a successful vaccine will soon be made available, but only time will tell.

Salathé may also have a bit of a personal bias in trying to project an optimistic outcome, being that he is a member of the government's coronavirus task force. Perhaps he just wants it to seem as though they have everything under control.

But as I said, only time will tell. I think this pandemic has been a steep learning curve for our species overall.
Yes, let's take a bit of potential light at the end of the tunnel and paint it dark.

This is how the UK media are playing it at the moment. The London Times carried 15 different items on Covit/Corona items yesterday all scaring the sh!t out of readers.

I had a phone call from a desperate friend in tears in a car park in Yorkshire as Lidl were sold out of toilet paper - again. She is scared stiff that her daughter at collage will come home with the news that a class mate has tested positive and her whole family will have to quarantine.

There will be deep mental scars from various governments' handling and mishandling of this pandemic - and taking a negative attitude will not help...
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Old 29.09.2020, 08:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, let's take a bit of potential light at the end of the tunnel and paint it dark.

This is how the UK media are playing it at the moment. The London Times carried 15 different items on Covit/Corona items yesterday all scaring the sh!t out of readers.

I had a phone call from a desperate friend in tears in a car park in Yorkshire as Lidl were sold out of toilet paper - again. She is scared stiff that her daughter at collage will come home with the news that a class mate has tested positive and her whole family will have to quarantine.

There will be deep mental scars from various governments' handling and mishandling of this pandemic - and taking a negative attitude will not help...
Totally agreed. I won't vote Conservative again as long as this team are in place.
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