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Old 17.10.2020, 10:41
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Re: Coronavirus

Here is a heart-warming story: A 13yr old Jirka who sewn masks for his class and got mocked for it, just had a meeting with the State Secretary of Work and Social Affairs who officially thanked him and who bought his masks from him. He also met the leadership of Czech Army, got his masks traded for the official army ones. Big popularity for this young generous artist. Him worrying about the safety of his class got a lot positive response of thousands of people online.

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/k...09_domaci_chtl

Jirko, jsi nejlepší! <3

Otherwise - difficult times back home, over 10 000 cases yesterday. The next 3wks are going to be critical. They are thinking of liberating hands of medical specialists and stocking hospitals with students from tech and engineering universitites to service/control the respiratory machines, retraining veterinarians to supply more people to shifts. Asian doctors may help, too. I have them all in my mind 24/7.
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Last edited by MusicChick; 17.10.2020 at 10:56.
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  #14042  
Old 17.10.2020, 10:41
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Re: Coronavirus

Another proof FMF was right few weeks ago when he said the virus has weaken.

We have 10 times more newly infected people than April yet there are less deaths.

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  #14043  
Old 17.10.2020, 11:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another proof FMF was right few weeks ago when he said the virus has weaken.

We have 10 times more newly infected people than April yet there are less deaths.

I don't think it's as simple as the virus has weakened ...
Back in Mar/Apr doctors didn't really know how to treat people, thousands of people probably died who would live now all other things considered.
People are now taking more precautions which lessens the load too ..

But yes we probably now face a much reduced threat.. Of death at least.

Let's just get on with it, live a bit.
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Old 17.10.2020, 11:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another proof FMF was right few weeks ago when he said the virus has weaken.

We have 10 times more newly infected people than April yet there are less deaths.

Viruses don't generally weaken over that few generations, it takes years.

And there is research suggesting the opposite:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...more-dangerous

There are actually three causes of the decreasing death rate:

- better treatment (particularly shows in reduced number of deaths vs hospital cases)
- less severe cases being identified through more testing (also matches reduced number of hospital cases vs overall cases)
- high risk populations already dead, and the rest now better protected (even hospital cases are now proportionally higher in lower risk populations vs higher risk)
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  #14045  
Old 17.10.2020, 11:17
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Re: Coronavirus

And perhaps, along with knowing more about how to treat, people receive treatment earlier.
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Old 17.10.2020, 11:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another proof FMF was right few weeks ago when he said the virus has weaken.

We have 10 times more newly infected people than April yet there are less deaths.

That isn’t proof of anything.

Firstly we know that there are more younger people being infected now and they are less likely to suffer from serious consequences as a result being infected, that doesn’t mean the virus has weakened. Secondly more people are being tested so more infections are being identified now. And finally we know more about how the virus behaves and what treatments are effective.
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Old 17.10.2020, 11:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Secondly more people are being tested so more infections are being identified now. And finally we know more about how the virus behaves and what treatments are effective.
Are you claiming treatment is given to people who are not ill?
I cant believe this is true, so identifying infections has nothing to do do with a lower death rate. None of those people would have died or even gone to the Dr.
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Old 17.10.2020, 11:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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There are actually three causes of the decreasing death rate:

- better treatment (particularly shows in reduced number of deaths vs hospital cases)
- less severe cases being identified through more testing (also matches reduced number of hospital cases vs overall cases)
- high risk populations already dead, and the rest now better protected (even hospital cases are now proportionally higher in lower risk populations vs higher risk)
additionally, reduced viral load due to pervasive mask use
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Old 17.10.2020, 11:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another proof FMF was right few weeks ago when he said the virus has weaken.

We have 10 times more newly infected people than April yet there are less deaths.

Tbf, I don’t think we know how many people were infected in March and April as there weren’t as many tests being carried out. Death and hospitalisation rates clearly lower now though so people should really not be panicking.
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Old 17.10.2020, 11:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you claiming treatment is given to people who are not ill?
I cant believe this is true, so identifying infections has nothing to do do with a lower death rate. None of those people would have died or even gone to the Dr.
Problems with the reading comprehension again? Belgianmum made two separate and unlinked statements.

The others that have answered this have it right. All research at the moment indicates there is no significant change in lethality per se. A combination of changes in age profile of those affected and better treatments are helping. There is no evolutionary imperative that would drive a weakening in this virus - it's only drive is to not kill it's host before it has had a chance to multiply and spread.

BTW, it is now widely thought that the mutations have made the virus more infectious - something natural selection would drive.
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Old 17.10.2020, 12:10
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Re: Coronavirus

Every reputable virologist says that the virus is not weakened.
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  #14052  
Old 17.10.2020, 12:12
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Re: Coronavirus

I think we have no idea what the death rates are going to be this winter, so I'm not sure how logical it is to base our expectations on the patterns that had emerged over the summer.

Yes, there are more ventilators now (I would hope) and we do appear to be better capable of treating the virus, but there are other variables involved that could come to play a role in a dramatic increase in death rates over the next few months. There are already signs that the virus may be mutating to be even more contagious, and we already know that viruses are more contagious in the winter due to the way they behave in the cold and lack of humidity. Also, it's already been established that vitamin D levels play a significant role in determining how sick someone becomes from the virus, and most people's vitamin D levels begin to drop significantly in the autumn and winter.

Also, considering the dramatically increasing rates of new infections that we've been seeing in the past week or two, that could very well translate into a lack of available ICU beds at some point.

I don't mean to seem like a pessimist (I prefer the word "realist" ), but I don't think we should get too comfortable in our expectations.

WHO: European COVID-19 Mortality to Rise in October, November
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pan...tober-november
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  #14053  
Old 17.10.2020, 12:36
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Re: Coronavirus

I thought that increased contagion was less due to mutation and more due to behavior, perhaps a decrease in time outside, less vit D, carelessness, more people in tight spaces. And of course more testing yielding more cases. But I admit I don’t know.

This suggests that mutations are not completely understood as of yet....

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6
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Old 17.10.2020, 12:50
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Re: Coronavirus

Not sure whether this had been shared here already. Metastudy on correlation of age and Infection Fatality Rate. Super strong correlation. Study has not looked at effect of comorbidities. Finally, also puts the flu bullshit to rest.



https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...895v4.full.pdf

"Discussion

Our meta-analysis indicates that COVID-19 poses a low risk for children and younger adults but is hazardous for middle-aged adults and extremely dangerous for older adults. Table 4 contextualize these risks by comparing the age-specific IFRs from our meta-regression analysis to the annualized risks of fatal automobile accidents or other unintentional injuries in England
and in the United States. For example, an English person aged 55–64 years who gets infected with SARS-CoV-2 faces a fatality risk that is more than 200 times higher than the annual risk of dying in a fatal car accident.

This analysis also confirms that COVID-19 is far more deadly than seasonal flu. For example, during the influenza season of winter 2018–19 the U.S. population had ~63 million infections and 34 thousand fatalities, with a population IFR of 0·05% an order of magnitude lower than
COVID-19; see Supplementary Appendix L."
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Old 17.10.2020, 13:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you claiming treatment is given to people who are not ill?
I cant believe this is true, so identifying infections has nothing to do do with a lower death rate. None of those people would have died or even gone to the Dr.
How on earth did you come to that conclusion from my post?
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  #14056  
Old 17.10.2020, 13:30
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Re: Coronavirus

Some English scientists believe the immunity to reinfection by COVID-19 is no better than that conferred by the similar coronavirus that is one of the causes of the common cold.
So, say six months immunity. Of course, the virus has not been around for long enough to have a definitive answer on this.
If true, it knocks the herd immunity idea on the head.

The lesson from this is that people who survived the infection should continue to take precautions, better safe than sorry.

Source
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Old 17.10.2020, 13:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's a scientific definition
link?
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Old 17.10.2020, 13:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Some English scientists believe the immunity to reinfection by COVID-19 is no better than that conferred by the similar coronavirus that is one of the causes of the common cold.
So, say six months immunity. Of course, the virus has not been around for long enough to have a definitive answer on this.
If true, it knocks the herd immunity idea on the head.

The lesson from this is that people who survived the infection should continue to take precautions, better safe than sorry.

Source
But if true, doesn't it knock the vaccination idea on the head too?
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Old 17.10.2020, 13:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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End. Of. Story.
indeed:
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Aerosols are a different story. They form when smaller droplets evaporate faster than they fall to the ground, leaving nuclei measuring less than five micrometers in diameter.
so, aerosol is set of smaller droplets
end. of. story
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  #14060  
Old 17.10.2020, 13:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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indeed:

so, aerosol is set of smaller droplets
end. of. story
No, aerosols are what remains after smaller droplets evaporate
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