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  #14521  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Come on. People were dying in the Northeastern US because the virus was there long before people even knew and could wear a mask. This picture is about density and luck of not having been hit early.
Jep. Coincidence, not more, not less.
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  #14522  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Jep. Coincidence, not more, not less.
OK. Ignore US. Look at Switzerland.

Ticino was hit early. Now the cases are piling up in Geneva, Lausanne and Zurich (places with good mask wearing but poor social distancing). In the UK, London and the heavily populated Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds belt is struggling.

Again, I repeat. I am not trying to argue that masks are not efficacious. Just that one shouldn't expect them to overcome a lack of social distancing. I think you should be wearing one, but basically presuming that its efficacy is limited. Its a matter of focus.
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Old 22.10.2020, 12:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Estimates for todays number? Due anytime now

6402 I'm going with.
Way off. 5256 cases from 26537 test. 106 hospitalisations.
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  #14524  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well Connecticut doesn't have a massive city and besides, density doesn't explain why or how Chicago or DC are doing quite alright.

Nor that e.g. Tokyo had no problems or Rome or many other fairly major cities.

I've said it before - it's safe to agree there's no obvious correlation between anything and anything and since no one has a plan, no one is actually analyzing anything properly either. No matter what parameters you look for, you will find "proof" for one thing and "proof" for the opposite just as much.

No one knows anything.
Connecticut has the fourth highest state population density in the US.
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li...lation_density

Top 10 states + DC based on deaths/capita with their population density rank in parenthesis:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

NJ (1)
NY (7)
MS (3)
Connecticut (4)
Louisiana (23)
Rhode Island (2)
Mississippi (32)
DC (0) (not a state but it is dense)
Arizona (33)
Illinois (12)

So 6 of the highest population density states had the most deaths/capita.
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Old 22.10.2020, 12:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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OK. Ignore US. Look at Switzerland.

Ticino was hit early. Now the cases are piling up in Geneva, Lausanne and Zurich. In the UK, London and the heavily populated Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds belt is struggling.

Again, I repeat. I am not trying to argue that masks are not efficacious. Just that one shouldn't expect them to overcome a lack of social distancing. I think you should be wearing one, but basically presuming that its efficacy is limited.
Like studies have shown, masks reduce infections maybe by 20-30%. One component of many to make this work. So agree.

Your thoughts about party preferences though are still beyond me. What is currently happening in Schwyz suggests that voting for SVP does not exactly make you immune
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  #14526  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Like studies have shown, masks reduce infections maybe by 20-30%.
That's is a percentage I can believe, very different to the rantings on FB that we will all die if we don't wear a mask
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  #14527  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Like studies have shown, masks reduce infections maybe by 20-30%. One component of many to make this work. So agree.
That’s in line with my thinking.

Masks do have some benefits but need to be used in conjunction with other measures, masks alone are not going to have much effect.
The usefulness of masks also relies on people using them correctly and not many people actually do that.

Having said that there is zero evidence that masks have a negative effect and every little helps so I will continue to diligently wear mine.
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  #14528  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Like studies have shown, masks reduce infections maybe by 20-30%.
I doubt in reality it's even that high. We are still yet to see randomised controlled trial proving that they work amongst the general population. Apparently there's a study like this being carried out in Denmark (no mandatory masks) and the results should be due out soon.
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  #14529  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:50
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Re: Coronavirus

Any predictions for the next BAG conference in an hour?
I'm thinking a localised lockdown in some Kantons.
A further "recommendation" for home office.
A ban of activities with more than 5 people out of the home or something along the likes.

The result will be me in the office on Monday unless they say that there is a law against working in the office...
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  #14530  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Like studies have shown, masks reduce infections maybe by 20-30%.
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I doubt in reality it's even that high.
Do you? Well, there's a surprise. I suppose you have some special knowledge of this that you're not prepared to share with us?
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Old 22.10.2020, 12:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Any predictions for the next BAG conference in an hour?
I'm thinking a localised lockdown in some Kantons.
A further "recommendation" for home office.
A ban of activities with more than 5 people out of the home or something along the likes.

The result will be me in the office on Monday unless they say that there is a law against working in the office...
What is it with these speculations? They will inform abou the situation and (maybe) have answers to questions. This is not the Bundesrat and I don't think there will be new restrictions until it is somewhat visible whether the regulations announced on Sunday work.
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  #14532  
Old 22.10.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is it with these speculations? They will inform abou the situation and (maybe) have answers to questions. This is not the Bundesrat and I don't think there will be new restrictions until it is somewhat visible whether the regulations announced on Sunday work.
They're speculations for the sake of speculating. Seeing as the Thursdays were where the most of the information was given before the extraordinary Sunday meeting last time, I think there will be more than just information.
Also seeing as one of the measures from last Sunday is still only a recommendation, I wonder if they'll officially push it a little harder.

Sorry for interrupting, please continue the circular argument about the efficacy of masks.
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  #14533  
Old 22.10.2020, 13:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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That’s in line with my thinking.

Masks do have some benefits but need to be used in conjunction with other measures, masks alone are not going to have much effect.
The usefulness of masks also relies on people using them correctly and not many people actually do that.

Having said that there is zero evidence that masks have a negative effect and every little helps so I will continue to diligently wear mine.
Exactly - every little helps, but not in its self sufficient.
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  #14534  
Old 22.10.2020, 13:03
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Re: Coronavirus

Let us say masks help 0% in preventing actual spread of Corona, but if masks help with the *viral load* and how sick someone gets, then that alone is reason enough for me to wear a mask. Am I wrong in my thinking

* Assuming viral load plays a part in the severity of the illness
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  #14535  
Old 22.10.2020, 13:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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I doubt in reality it's even that high. We are still yet to see randomised controlled trial proving that they work amongst the general population. Apparently there's a study like this being carried out in Denmark (no mandatory masks) and the results should be due out soon.
Masks should logically have some effect if they reduce transmission of droplets. It shouldn't be zero. As FMF says 20-30% is a number that intuitively makes sense and is consistent with the data.
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  #14536  
Old 22.10.2020, 13:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Let us say masks help 0% in preventing actual spread of Corona, but if masks help with the *viral load* and how sick someone gets, then that alone is reason enough for me to wear a mask. Am I wrong in my thinking

* Assuming viral load plays a part in the severity of the illness
That wouldn't really make sense. If the viral load is reduced that should prevent some infections - as you need a sizable viral load to get infected at all. Masks should have an effect.
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  #14537  
Old 22.10.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Let us say masks help 0% in preventing actual spread of Corona, but if masks help with the *viral load* and how sick someone gets, then that alone is reason enough for me to wear a mask. Am I wrong in my thinking

* Assuming viral load plays a part in the severity of the illness
That is plausible. I think there have been studies where load and duration of virus exposure was linked to severity of illness.
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Old 22.10.2020, 13:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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That wouldn't really make sense. If the viral load is reduced that should prevent some infections - as you need a viral load to get infected. Masks should have an effect.
Reducing the viral load does have an effect. If the viral load is lower, the infection is less severe.

They are actually about to begin a trial in the UK, deliberately infecting volunteers with C19 of varying viral loads to determine the minimum required to sustain an infection.
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Old 22.10.2020, 13:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you sure?

10 least-white states in USA (2010):
Mississippi (republican)
Florida (republican)
Arizona (republican)
Georgia (republican)
Maryland (democratic)
Nevada (democratic)
Texas (republican)
New Mexico (democratic)
California (democratic)
Hawaii (democratic)

I make that 5-5. On the other hand, the two whitest states are both democratic.

Of the states with a lot of deaths in the north east, two are quite diverse (NJ and NY), two are not particularly diverse (MA and CA).

The biggest problem with your statement, is that I think you have cause and effect the wrong way around. Surely BAME people are much more likely to have bad outcomes because they live in big cities (and have jobs and possibly housing that do not permit for good social distancing), not that big cities fair badly because they have BAME people living in them.
The power of voter repression
Ten year old statistics, let us see how many states are still Republican next month
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  #14540  
Old 22.10.2020, 13:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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No one knows anything.
but everyone has strong opinion about anything
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