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  #14701  
Old 23.10.2020, 16:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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From quickly reading the SRF ticker, my impression is that BAG will have to recommend quite tough measures to Bundesrat to be taken asap. They seem to have lost control completely. I don't have the feeling that people are really reducing contacts.
Task Force seems to see an imminent collapse of health care system so something will have to be done sooner than later
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  #14702  
Old 23.10.2020, 16:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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From quickly reading the SRF ticker, my impression is that BAG will have to recommend quite tough measures to Bundesrat to be taken asap....
They have.

Clearly stated that the current measures are insufficient and have recommended a drastic intervention. Contact tracing is no longer working and Switzerland will run out of intensive beds in 2 to 3 weeks.
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  #14703  
Old 23.10.2020, 16:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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We may find out on Wednesday. The COVID task force sounded annoyed with the canton of ZRH and their lack of action, Federal council may act for them
Maybe sooner. With the pressure now put on them the BR may well be forced to act this weekend.
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  #14704  
Old 23.10.2020, 16:32
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Re: Coronavirus

So if we go into lockdown mode again, I assume that means that most stores will close except for pharmacies and grocery stores, like last time?

(Sorry, I guess I'm just trying to get an idea of what to expect, though maybe none of us really know? ).
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Old 23.10.2020, 16:44
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Re: Coronavirus

The comment on the estimate on actual non-reported cases is also disturbing. I would assume we are close to spring levels now, where this was estimated to be factor 10. That would give you 66k infections per day. That is the entire city of Lugano or almost the entire city of St. Gallen. Per day. F------ hell.
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  #14706  
Old 23.10.2020, 16:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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The comment on the estimate on actual non-reported cases is also disturbing. I would assume we are close to spring levels now, where this was estimated to be factor 10. That would give you 66k infections per day. That is the entire city of Lugano or almost the entire city of St. Gallen. Per day. F------ hell.
As of today's pressy earlier, 342 ICU beds available in the entire country. Wife was telling me nursing staff is already at the cusp of burnout, another lock down - well, it will take a very concerted and comprehensive effort to manage a situation that has potential to spiral out of control
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  #14707  
Old 23.10.2020, 16:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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So if we go into lockdown mode again, I assume that means that most stores will close except for pharmacies and grocery stores, like last time?

(Sorry, I guess I'm just trying to get an idea of what to expect, though maybe none of us really know? ).
Please no. That's just penalizing people who follow the rules. Why shut shops when gyms and pubs are still open? Surely we close them first?

If we do it too strict cases will go down very quickly, we reopen and then they'll zoom up again. A managed slow decline increases our herd effect and doesn't result in awful yoyoing.
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Old 23.10.2020, 17:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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The comment on the estimate on actual non-reported cases is also disturbing. I would assume we are close to spring levels now, where this was estimated to be factor 10. That would give you 66k infections per day. That is the entire city of Lugano or almost the entire city of St. Gallen. Per day. F------ hell.
The factor isn't what it was in spring, reasonably sure 10 is too high now. If it was 10 the death % would have to be very low - not much more than 0.1%.

My best guess for real daily cases would be

9 (7 day rolling average of deaths)

x 300 (assuming 1/300 dies. This is roughly right. Maybe you could go down to 200 or 250 if you are being more pessimistic)

x 10 (accounting for increase in cases over last three weeks - making a finger in the air assumption that's time to death)

Equals 27,000.
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  #14709  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:04
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Re: Coronavirus

They really do need to do something major to try to get this under control. It's already out of control, and they really shouldn't wait until it's completely out of control to do something, in the first place.

Name:  new cases - oct 23 2020.jpg
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I think it's already been made clear that some people aren't going to follow social distancing, work from home recommendations, etc., so they really need to be more firm in terms of new restrictions.

What really scares me, too, is that last Spring, we saw things get bad but most people had better vitamin D back then (we had a nice, sunny April) but now with people's vitamin D levels declining and regular flu season just beginning, I really fear what the death rates might becomes if the current trends continue.
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  #14710  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Please no. That's just penalizing people who follow the rules. Why shut shops when gyms and pubs are still open? Surely we close them first?

If we do it too strict cases will go down very quickly, we reopen and then they'll zoom up again. A managed slow decline increases our herd effect and doesn't result in awful yoyoing.
Gyms and pubs are keeping people healthy and happy . In no particular order.

Keep them open!!
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  #14711  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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The factor isn't what it was in spring, reasonably sure 10 is too high now. If it was 10 the death % would have to be very low - not much more than 0.1%.

My best guess for real daily cases would be

9 (7 day rolling average of deaths)

x 300 (assuming 1/300 dies. This is roughly right. Maybe you could go down to 200 or 250 if you are being more pessimistic)

x 10 (accounting for increase in cases over last three weeks - making a finger in the air assumption that's time to death)

Equals 27,000.
Well, deaths are lagging infections by 3-4 weeks. Ackermann said he did not know what the unreported factor is, but said it is surely higher than in summer where it was assessed to be 2-3. Positivity rate is as high as in spring and still seems to go up.

Whatever the real factor is, both 27k and 66k seem pretty outrageous to me.
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  #14712  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well, deaths are lagging infections by 3-4 weeks. Ackermann said he did not know what the unreported factor is, but said it is surely higher than in summer where it was assessed to be 2-3. Positivity rate is as high as in spring and still seems to go up.

Whatever the real factor is, both 27k and 66k seem pretty outrageous to me.
I've presumed 3 weeks and make the factor about 4.5.

At the worst in spring I make it more like 10-15K daily cases at the peak. So we are probably looking at significant deaths to come. If we don't get to around 50 a day I'd be pretty surprised even if there's no further increases.
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  #14713  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:20
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Re: Coronavirus

Corona what? Lets buy a caravan this weekend at the Bern expo - they are expecting 7000 visitors per day

Really?

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/coro...ist-mit-corona

Last edited by Sigh; 23.10.2020 at 17:21. Reason: Added link
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  #14714  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Gyms and pubs are keeping people healthy and happy . In no particular order.

Keep them open!!
Keep them open even if they're significantly contributing to the spread of the virus?

Man, our species has become extremely spoiled. Even the concept of minor sacrifice is something that (some) people can't fathom. There are a lot of people in the world who have to walk 10 km's just to get drinking water. People who don't have the ability to feed their babies anything other than a mixture of flour and water. People with no access to healthcare or the medication they need. And yet here we are... complaining about not being able to go to a gym or a pub?

I'm sorry, but I think that's truly pathetic.

Also, you don't need a gym to exercise. And you certainly don't need a pub to be happy.
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Old 23.10.2020, 17:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona what? Lets buy a caravan this weekend at the Bern expo - they are expecting 7000 visitors per day

Really?

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/coro...ist-mit-corona
TBH you have questionable judgement if you are buying a caravan COVID or not.
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Old 23.10.2020, 17:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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tbh you have questionable judgement if you are buying a caravan covid or not.
lol :d
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  #14717  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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As of today's pressy earlier, 342 ICU beds available in the entire country. Wife was telling me nursing staff is already at the cusp of burnout, another lock down - well, it will take a very concerted and comprehensive effort to manage a situation that has potential to spiral out of control
I expect that, similar to spring, additional capacity will be created and personnel from army etc. deployed to assist medical staff. I hope there is someone working on this.

Last edited by komsomolez; 23.10.2020 at 17:46. Reason: spelling
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  #14718  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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..you don't need a gym to exercise. And you certainly don't need a pub to be happy.
So a pub inside a gym would be a perfect solution?
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  #14719  
Old 23.10.2020, 17:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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I expect that, similar to spring, additional capacity will be created and personnel from army etc. deployed to assist medical staff. I hope there is someone working on this.
'No canton requested military help yet – 'but we know that they requests are in preparation'. says Stettbacher. #CoronaInfoCH'
https://twitter.com/CoronaEnglish/st...27127243890689
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  #14720  
Old 23.10.2020, 18:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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I know that on October 1st, gatherings of 1,000 or more people were allowed here, with permission. I kept waiting for them to cancel that, but as far as I know, they never did. I guess that's also around the time when the weather started to turn much colder (can't remember). And then I'm sure that people traveling while their kids were on break from school didn't help.
Exactly! That's your triple whammy right there - travel, gatherings and the weather getting colder.

A friend went to a concert at the weekend then into the office on Monday, but is now working from home. If that person was asymtomatic...
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