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Old 26.10.2020, 14:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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The good news is normally diseases mutate to become less rather than more lethal. As you mention the disease needs a host to survive.

Given this, it is not in the diseases interest to kill the host or indeed make them so ill they stay in bed and do not pass the disease to others.
The virus attacks the respiratory system.

Also, yes, there is already some evidence emerging that the COVID virus is mutating to become more lethal and more contagious (and let's face it, more infections translates to more deaths). Essentially, it appears to be growing more 'spikes' which causes it to more easily latch on and be transmitted.
Study Finds the Coronavirus Mutated to Become More Contagious.
https://www.prevention.com/health/a3...tagious-study/
Mutated coronavirus shows significant boost in infectivity
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...-mutation.html

The Spanish Flu virus mutated parallel with a second wave and that's what eventually made it so much more lethal. In the first wave, people were dying after a week or two of having contracted it. But in the second wave, the virus was killing people much, much more quickly due to it having mutated. And the Spanish Flu virus was an H1N1 virus, which is actually considered less lethal than coronaviruses.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/
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  #15022  
Old 26.10.2020, 14:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Lockdown should only be a last roll of the dice to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed.
Going off Berset's comments today, seeing as he's the Health Minister and has spent the weekend visiting hospitals to see what the situation really is, I wouldn't be surprised if that dice is rolled on Wednesday. However, a couple of cantons might be excluded from this, particularly Schaffhausen.
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Old 26.10.2020, 14:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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The virus attacks the respiratory system.

Also, yes, there is already some evidence emerging that the COVID virus is mutating to become more lethal and more contagious (and let's face it, more infections translates to more deaths). Essentially, it appears to be growing more 'spikes' which causes it to more easily latch on and be transmitted.
Study Finds the Coronavirus Mutated to Become More Contagious.
https://www.prevention.com/health/a3...tagious-study/
Mutated coronavirus shows significant boost in infectivity
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...-mutation.html

The Spanish Flu virus mutated parallel with a second wave and that's what eventually made it so much more lethal. In the first wave, people were dying after a week or two of having contracted it. But in the second wave, the virus was killing people much, much more quickly due to it having mutated. And the Spanish Flu virus was an H1N1 virus, which is actually considered less lethal than coronaviruses.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/
Please share. Seems highly unlikely in view of a plummeting death rate.
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  #15024  
Old 26.10.2020, 14:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Cases would just rise again after the lockdown. Its really not the answer unless you are going for an extermination policy (and we are way, way to late for that). Lockdown should only be a last roll of the dice to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed.

We have 4 months of winter coming up. We need to find the right balance to keep things under control longer term or it'll be repeated lockdowns.
The whole point is to not give the virus an opportunity to find new hosts, or at least to dramatically decrease that ability. And if we continue to see ICU beds filled up at the rate that they are now, I think we're not going to have much choice.

So while perhaps it may not be a permanent fix, it would at least help get those numbers down to 1. Help make the spread easier to control, and 2. Help prevent hospitals from becoming increasingly overwhelmed.
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Old 26.10.2020, 14:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Please share. Seems highly unlikely in view of a plummeting death rate.
I did "share." I had included two links just below my statement, in regard to the virus mutating. So please look again.

Also, there are other factors involved in regard to why the death rates were lower in the summer, including higher vitamin D levels and our ability to treat the disease better and more access to ventilators. We're in a more dangerous situation now due to people's vitamin D levels dropping in the autumn and winter and the fact that virus behaves differently in colder and less humid weather (more contagious due to the way its outer shell or "envelope" behaves in colder temps). This could translate into higher viral loads.

Anyways, the lower death rates in the summer are clearly not translating into less hospital beds being taken up right now. And the truth is, we have no idea what death rates will be a month or two from now, and particularly if we continue to run out of ICU beds as we are beginning to now.
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Old 26.10.2020, 14:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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The virus attacks the respiratory system.

Also, yes, there is already some evidence emerging that the COVID virus is mutating to become more lethal and more contagious (and let's face it, more infections translates to more deaths). Essentially, it appears to be growing more 'spikes' which causes it to more easily latch on and be transmitted.
Study Finds the Coronavirus Mutated to Become More Contagious.
https://www.prevention.com/health/a3...tagious-study/
Mutated coronavirus shows significant boost in infectivity
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...-mutation.html

The Spanish Flu virus mutated parallel with a second wave and that's what eventually made it so much more lethal. In the first wave, people were dying after a week or two of having contracted it. But in the second wave, the virus was killing people much, much more quickly due to it having mutated. And the Spanish Flu virus was an H1N1 virus, which is actually considered less lethal than coronaviruses.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/
More infectious does not mean more lethal! You're misinterpreting the links you provide.
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  #15027  
Old 26.10.2020, 14:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Also, yes, there is already some evidence emerging that the COVID virus is mutating to become more lethal and more contagious (and let's face it, more infections translates to more deaths).
You are confusing the incremental deaths increase with a death rate, which are two very different things. The death rate is not growing anywhere near the rate of infections, as I and a few others posted links to serious studies earlier. But then again, alarmism doesn't need facts
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Old 26.10.2020, 14:30
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Re: Coronavirus

Anyone has info what is the median/average age of the hospitalizations currently happening?
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  #15029  
Old 26.10.2020, 14:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Anyone has info what is the median/average age of the hospitalizations currently happening?
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Old 26.10.2020, 14:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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The good news is normally diseases mutate to become less rather than more lethal. As you mention the disease needs a host to survive.

Given this, it is not in the diseases interest to kill the host or indeed make them so ill they stay in bed and do not pass the disease to others.

Diseases to not mutate to become less lethal. A disease might evolve in less harmful form.

Dieses mutate all the time a very little tiny bit and sometimes a bit more. Every time the viral gets replicated by our cell there is a chance a change is introduced. Some of those mutation make them less harmful some make them more harmful. Selective pressure will give a slight advantage to some of those mutation. Depending on the type of pressure and its effect this means the diseases will evolve into a more harmful or more benign version.

The selective pressure from us humans is that when we feel symptoms we isolate our selves or seek treatment. If there are no symptoms or if they are harmless we let them pass which gives the more beging form an advantage and the possibility that it might becomes the dominant form. Problems are key hole events were a larger population with many variants are eradicated but only a few with a certain mutation survive. Those survivor have now two advantages: no more competition and a great chance to survive the next such event.

Important: W/o an selective pressure of any kind there is no chance a more benign form becomes the dominant one. If we let the diseases just roam the most infectious will win (does not say if is more harmful or not). No one can say how long it takes until the diseases evolves such that a more harmless form becomes dominant in the population. It can take many, many years. In the end evolution is a process with no aim and no goal which is relies on chance.
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  #15031  
Old 26.10.2020, 14:53
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Re: Coronavirus

Some 100s of pages back I posted a link to my cousin's husband in the UK who
came home after 5½ months in hospital fighting Cov-19.

Last night he was featured on ITV news:


https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-25/...s-on-the-brink
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  #15032  
Old 26.10.2020, 14:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, I said that more infections means more deaths.
No, you said it's more lethal. This is not true.

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Also, yes, there is already some evidence emerging that the COVID virus is mutating to become more lethal and more contagious
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  #15033  
Old 26.10.2020, 14:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, you said it's more lethal. This is not true.
I think he took "more lethal" to mean "more dangerous" which is understandable even if it is not correct.
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Old 26.10.2020, 14:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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More infectious does not mean more lethal! You're misinterpreting the links you provide.
No, I said that more infections means more deaths, which is what we're just beginning to see happen now. So in that regard, the virus being more infectious does (or would) translate into more deaths, and it could become more lethal if the virus mutates to be both more infectious and to allow for an increased viral load.

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  #15035  
Old 26.10.2020, 15:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, I said that more infections means more deaths, which is what we're just beginning to see happen now. So in that regard, the virus being more infectious does (or would) translate into more deaths, and it could become more lethal if the virus mutates to be both more infectious and to allow for an increased viral load.

Attachment 140514
You've gone down to "could become more lethal" I see. I agree in theory your point about viral load could be true - but needs to be shown and could be quite marginal.
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  #15036  
Old 26.10.2020, 15:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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You've gone down to "could become more lethal" I see. I agree in theory your point about viral load could be true - but needs to be shown and could be quite marginal.
Read below to see what I had written in regard to the virus mutating.

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The virus attacks the respiratory system.

Also, yes, there is already some evidence emerging that the COVID virus is mutating to become more lethal and more contagious (and let's face it, more infections translates to more deaths). Essentially, it appears to be growing more 'spikes' which causes it to more easily latch on and be transmitted.
Study Finds the Coronavirus Mutated to Become More Contagious.
https://www.prevention.com/health/a3...tagious-study/
Mutated coronavirus shows significant boost in infectivity
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...-mutation.html
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  #15037  
Old 26.10.2020, 15:21
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Re: Coronavirus


'Hospital in Valais has begun to transfer patients to other hospitals. «The situation is starting to get concerning». https://srf.ch/news/schweiz/hoechste...enten-verlegen #CoronaInfoCH'
https://twitter.com/CoronaEnglish/st...28209843957760
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  #15038  
Old 26.10.2020, 15:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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You've gone down to "could become more lethal" I see. I agree in theory your point about viral load could be true - but needs to be shown and could be quite marginal.
Just how lethal virus is now will be known in next 4-5 weeks. We might see <100 deaths the day but we might also see >1000, are you seriously suggesting to "roll the dice" and see?

Those are not simple numbers, those a people who will die a very unpleasant and lonely death. Some of them could be saved if people would reduce consumption, stop going out and properly wear PPE this winter. Is that really too much to ask for?

Is is very sad that some members of our society weight their ability to go to Restaurant / Club / Bar and not wearing PPE more then lives of other people.
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Old 26.10.2020, 15:43
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Re: Coronavirus

I think I am going to stock up on food tomorrow and hibernate this winter! Yes, some toilet rolls too. Luckily I joined this forum, so I have an outlet compared to the previous lockdown when I was a bit cut off and posting on Swissinfo only!

Team Pancake and Team Tony C should keep us occupied and warm during the long winter months! I visited the hospital recently, and they had Covid-19 entrance stations, felt so surreal.
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Old 26.10.2020, 15:51
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Re: Coronavirus

Went to see my older brother had Hôpital du Chablais last week. Surreal indeed. Welcomed by someone asking if the mask I wore was new, and then applying the gel on my hands. I then had to queue (distanced) and be 'interviewed' - give the name and room number of the person I wanted to visit- was told he had another visitor with him so would have to wait. Was then asked for my ID, which was kept by the person- and told to sit and wait. When my brother's visitor came to the desk- she was given her ID card back, and the number card she had been given was sterilised before being put back in its box. The woman then called me, and gave me the number card and said I could go up. Same process with card and ID when I left.


I asked why temperature was not taken at the entrance stations- she said it was automatically scanned as I went through the door. Sci-Fi.
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