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Old 26.10.2020, 18:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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There is no such evidence. You are confusing incremental growth and growth rate we've provided a few links earlier to studies confirming this. Your alarmism and sense of superiority doesn't change the fact that you're wrong. Again. Drop it, it makes you look not only wrong, but also arrogant and stubborn. Bad combo
As I had stated multiple times, the studies that I linked to suggest that the virus is or has been mutating to have more spikes, which in turn would mean that it's more contagious and easier to contract. This in turn could translate to more deaths. We've seen with the recent increase in the number of cases how that increase eventually parallels with a rise in number of deaths. Also, as I had stated, the virus having more spikes could translate to more easily causing a higher viral load, which in turn could make it more deadly.

The fact that you interpret information as "alarmism" is your problem, not mine.

This article dated September 29, 2020:
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-sec...rt-of-the-year

"That spike is what the coronavirus uses to invade our cells, so it's possible a tweak there could make it easier for the virus to infect our bodies.

Indeed, a June study found that the D614G strain is three to six times better at infecting human cells in the lab than its predecessor. Other preliminary research has also suggested that the mutation enhances the virus's ability to invade cells.
"

And here is the definition of lethal:

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  #15062  
Old 26.10.2020, 18:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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I would agree with this. The main requirement for this to work though would be for people to not meet other people (or at least to a very much reduced extend). And this is where I so far see no evidence, very different from spring when everybody was scared. Today I see laziness, ignorance and fatigue.
This is the problem. If people are meeting others in their homes without caution, there is only so much more that new rules can do on a population level.

Although clearly government action is still important its increasingly a matter of personal responsibility to protect you and your family, at least for those without kids.
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  #15063  
Old 26.10.2020, 18:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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I would agree with this. The main requirement for this to work though would be for people to not meet other people (or at least to a very much reduced extend). And this is where I so far see no evidence, very different from spring when everybody was scared. Today I see laziness, ignorance and fatigue.

That is a problem with all double strikes. I can very much imagine that it was the same during second wave of spanish flu epidemics. First people ignored it and by the time they realized how problematic it was it already penetrated too deep / went into the trenches.
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  #15064  
Old 26.10.2020, 19:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is the problem. If people are meeting others in their homes without caution, there is only so much more that new rules can do on a population level.

Although clearly government action is still important its increasingly a matter of personal responsibility to protect you and your family, at least for those without kids.
Yes, although the term "Eigenverantwortung" for this is so often used when people actually just want to demand that everything stays open. It needs to mean that I decline meetings with friends, I do not go to the office although there might be soft pressure to show up, I look after my kids socializing in a more confined circle etc.
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  #15065  
Old 26.10.2020, 19:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is the problem. If people are meeting others in their homes without caution, there is only so much more that new rules can do on a population level.

Although clearly government action is still important its increasingly a matter of personal responsibility to protect you and your family, at least for those without kids.
Like this one.... not!

"Agreements had been made among the guests of the wedding celebration. It was agreed that the guests would not be tested in order to avoid any quarantine, said Balmer"

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/coro...a-nicht-testen
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  #15066  
Old 26.10.2020, 19:52
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Re: Coronavirus

I think that's the problem and why the government (unfortunately) needs to be more firm in terms of defining restrictions. Otherwise, too many people will just adjust their behavior according to their own, personal perceived risk rather than in terms of how their behavior could come to affect society in general and the spread of the virus. (e.g. the family who recently wanted me to babysit their children the day after they returned from vacationing at a resort).

The fact that there are so many apathetic, careless and/or self-centered people out there necessitates firm restrictions. It's an unfortunate reality.

We've also seen here how one member's employer will not allow him to work from home despite the government now strongly advising it. Clearly, some employers won't follow that advice unless they are forced to.
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  #15067  
Old 26.10.2020, 20:17
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Re: Coronavirus

Like I have been saying countless times, if masks help with viral load etc then why is there no real world enforcement!!!!! Even now I see plenty of people wearing the mask on their mouth only!

Apart from babies, everyone should have masks on, when using public transport.
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  #15068  
Old 26.10.2020, 20:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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which in turn would mean that it's more contagious and easier to contract. This in turn could translate to more deaths.
You are making exactly the same mistake again and are becoming a classic troll. Please educate yourself on the difference between INCREMENTAL increase and RATE increase. Both could be confusing for people with poor number skills, but are foundational in any serious discussion. Unfortunately, you are now not contributing to the discussion, you are only showing remarkable ignorance and arrogance at the same time.

And the below is truly remarkable - you have "evidence" about a potential future event?

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What I said is that there is already some evidence emerging that it is mutating to become more lethal." .
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  #15069  
Old 26.10.2020, 20:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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For those who are totally against a lockdown, what do you propose?

It is obvious that we cannot count on the public to be disciplined and stop activities that will spread the virus. At this rate, hospitals are already overflowing and it will only get much much worse if everything remains as is.

For those who say "but Sweden"... do you realize that Switzerland has been far more lenient than Sweden since the Summer?
Right back at you! How long should we go into lockdown for? A week? A month? 3 months? Until May next year? And then what? Wait for the numbers to rise again and then return to lockdown? Hope that a vaccine proves effective?

I propose that governments stop just focusing on the virus in their response and look at the bigger picture. Instead of just displaying graphs with the Covid infection rate, or hospitalisations or deaths, how about they display a few graphs with the health problems created by lockdown? Or showing the effect of lockdown on the economy and the implications of that?

This shouldn't be about saving Covid lives, it should be about saving lives PERIOD. This means having competent people in charge who are able to balance the risks. This is why Sweden is leading the world in their response.

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"4.45 p.m.: Ticino government makes it mandatory to wear a mask outdoors
In Ticino, it is mandatory to wear a mask outdoors from Tuesday if the minimum distance to other people cannot be maintained. With these and other measures, the Ticino government tightened the measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus on Monday afternoon"

https://www.bluewin.ch/de/news/schwe...he-453797.html
If this totally idiotic proposal finds its way to the rest of Switzerland, it will really be the time to stop going along with this charade because it makes people suckered in by Covid propaganda feel more comfortable and outright not comply with it. I simply won't do it!
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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You are making exactly the same mistake again and are becoming a classic troll. Please educate yourself on the difference between INCREMENTAL increase and RATE increase. Both could be confusing for people with poor number skills, but are foundational in any serious discussion. Unfortunately, you are now not contributing to the discussion, you are only showing remarkable ignorance and arrogance at the same time.

And the below is truly remarkable - you have "evidence" about a potential future event?
As I said earlier, you really have a knack for completely misinterpreting things and then accusing me of being wrong because of it. Where exactly did I say that I have evidence for a potential future event? What I said is that there is some evidence that the virus is mutating to become more infectious, and I have posted plenty of links those studies, which you have chosen to completely ignore.

And how is that you know that the virus mutating to be more contagious could not translate to an "incremental increase" or a "rate increase?" This is the first time I have even heard you use those terms in our discussions here. It is interesting, though, that you're trying to accuse me of having "poor number skills" when, first of all, you know nothing about my "number skills," and again, this is the first time you have even mentioned those terms.

Also, you had been repeatedly saying that I was wrong to use the word "lethal." I posted the definition(s) of the word "lethal" above. So how exactly was I using the word "lethal" wrongly, exactly, in reference to the virus potentially mutating to be more contagious? You have completely ignored my last comment to you and instead have resorted to an ad hominem attack regarding my "number skills" when again, you know nothing about me.

You are increasingly impossible to deal with and proving to be nothing more than a waste of my time because you completely ignore my comments back to you, in which I defend myself, and then completely misinterpret me in order to try to defend yourself. It's exhausting.
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:34
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Re: Coronavirus

Look, this winter is going to be shitty enough. Don't waste your energy in debating mute points with one another when obviously there is no room for agreement.
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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If this totally idiotic proposal finds its way to the rest of Switzerland, it will really be the time to stop going along with this charade because it makes people suckered in by Covid propaganda feel more comfortable and outright not comply with it. I simply won't do it!

then just stay at home, or make sure you can socially distance when out- simple enough.
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:37
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Re: Coronavirus

In case someone else is interested in something else than conversing in circles, I found this article very interesting

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ndemic/616548/
Part of it bellow
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By now many people have heard about R0—the basic reproductive number of a pathogen, a measure of its contagiousness on average. But unless you’ve been reading scientific journals, you’re less likely to have encountered k, the measure of its dispersion. The definition of k is a mouthful, but it’s simply a way of asking whether a virus spreads in a steady manner or in big bursts, whereby one person infects many, all at once. After nine months of collecting epidemiological data, we know that this is an overdispersed pathogen, meaning that it tends to spread in clusters, but this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemic—or our preventive practices.

Read: Herd immunity is not a strategy

The now-famed R0 (pronounced as “r-naught”) is an average measure of a pathogen’s contagiousness, or the mean number of susceptible people expected to become infected after being exposed to a person with the disease. If one ill person infects three others on average, the R0 is three. This parameter has been widely touted as a key factor in understanding how the pandemic operates. News media have produced multiple explainers and visualizations for it. Movies praised for their scientific accuracy on pandemics are lauded for having characters explain the “all-important” R0. Dashboards track its real-time evolution, often referred to as R or Rt, in response to our interventions. (If people are masking and isolating or immunity is rising, a disease can’t spread the same way anymore, hence the difference between R0 and R.)

Unfortunately, averages aren’t always useful for understanding the distribution of a phenomenon, especially if it has widely varying behavior. If Amazon’s CEO, Jeff Bezos, walks into a bar with 100 regular people in it, the average wealth in that bar suddenly exceeds $1 billion. If I also walk into that bar, not much will change. Clearly, the average is not that useful a number to understand the distribution of wealth in that bar, or how to change it. Sometimes, the mean is not the message. Meanwhile, if the bar has a person infected with COVID-19, and if it is also poorly ventilated and loud, causing people to speak loudly at close range, almost everyone in the room could potentially be infected—a pattern that’s been observed many times since the pandemic begin, and that is similarly not captured by R. That’s where the dispersion comes in.

There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Look, this winter is going to be shitty enough. Don't waste your energy in debating mute points with one another when obviously there is no room for agreement.
Nice :-)

The thread has turned into a bit of “my link is better than your link” or “you never read my link” or “your expert isn’t as clever as my expert”

It’s all a bit same same now since about page 4
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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As I said earlier, you really have a knack for completely misinterpreting things and then accusing me of being wrong because of it. Where exactly did I say that I have evidence for a potential future event? What I said is that there is some evidence that the virus is mutating to become more infectious, and I have posted plenty of links those studies, which you have chosen to completely ignore.

And how is that you know that the virus mutating to be more contagious could not translate to an "incremental increase" or a "rate increase?" This is the first time I have even heard you use those terms in our discussions here. It is interesting, though, that you're trying to accuse me of having "poor number skills" when, first of all, you know nothing about my "number skills," and again, this is the first time you have even mentioned those terms.

Also, you had been repeatedly saying that I was wrong to use the word "lethal." I posted the definition(s) of the word "lethal" above. So how exactly was I using the word "lethal" wrongly, exactly, in reference to the virus potentially mutating to be more contagious? You have completely ignored my last comment to you and instead have resorted to an ad hominem attack regarding my "number skills" when again, you know nothing about me.


You are increasingly impossible to deal with and proving to be nothing more than a waste of my time because you completely ignore my comments back to you, in which I defend myself, and then completely misinterpret me in order to try to defend yourself. It's exhausting.
Lethality is a synonym for case fatality rate (deaths per infected person). It is nominally unaffected by changes in the transmissiblity. https://www.wikilectures.eu/w/Lethality_Rate.

You are mistaking lethality for mortality, which is death rate per head of population. Ebola has a high lethality but low mortality (because few people get it).

Its an understandable mistake, and certainly not worthy of an ad hominem attack, but you are definitely wrong.
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  #15076  
Old 26.10.2020, 21:49
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Re: Coronavirus

The canton forecast (upper right corner) for the 30/10 looks very grim

https://icumonitoring.ch/
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Lethality is a synonym for case fatality rate (deaths per infected person). It is nominally unaffected by changes in the transmissiblity. https://www.wikilectures.eu/w/Lethality_Rate.

You are mistaking lethality for mortality, which is death rate per head of population. Ebola has a high lethality but low mortality (because few people get it).
I never used the word "lethality." I used the word "lethal." I had already posted the definition for the word lethal here earlier but rather than acknowledging that, you are trying to accuse me of using the word wrongly when in truth you were misinterpreting me due to your own interpretation of the word lethal and what I intended with my own use of that word.
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Nice :-)

The thread has turned into a bit of “my link is better than your link” or “you never read my link” or “your expert isn’t as clever as my expert”

It’s all a bit same same now since about page 4
I agree. It's redundant and annoying, and I apologize for my own role in it. I have been repeatedly misinterpreted here and am exhausted by trying to defend myself against repeated misinterpretations and the resulting accusations.

It's a waste of time and energy, and again I apologize for "feeding the monster" so to speak.
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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And how is that you know that the virus mutating to be more contagious could not translate to an "incremental increase" or a "rate increase?"
You are wrong. Let me try to explain again. Of course that the virus will trigger more incremental deaths. However, more incremental deaths does not necessarily mean that the death rate is increasing. Or in other words, incremental deaths are increasing. Death rate is not. At least not for now and we all hope it won't in the future.


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This is the first time I have even heard you use those terms in our discussions here.
No, it's literally my first response to your wrong statement a few pages back. Maybe try to pay more attention to what people actually write before you respond. Here's a refresher:

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You are confusing the incremental deaths increase with a death rate, which are two very different things. The death rate is not growing anywhere near the rate of infections, as I and a few others posted links to serious studies earlier. But then again, alarmism doesn't need facts

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Where exactly did I say that I have evidence for a potential future event?
Here. You say there's "evidence" that the virus will "become" something in the future.
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Why are you NOT able to understand the difference between what I wrote and saying that the virus IS more lethal? What I said is that there is already some evidence emerging that it is mutating to become more lethal."

Notice the word "become" in there.
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Old 26.10.2020, 21:57
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Re: Coronavirus

Maybe time to stop nit-picking here and stop personal attacks and/or picking on semantics??
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