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  #15421  
Old 29.10.2020, 08:47
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Re: Coronavirus

More fact-free posting I see.
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Quoting an Imperial College estimate is probably not the best of ideas tbh...But let's go all the way back and remind ourselves of what they predicted for number of UK deaths would be in the first wave of the pandemic WITH intervention... 250,000!!!!
The projection of 260,000 assumed just 2 measures. Quarantining of families where someone had symptoms plus social distancing of over 70s. As you (bloody well should) know, the actual measures taken went a long way past that.

Their scenario 2 assumed a full lockdown and projected 20,000 deaths (mid value with a fair range of possibilities). As HMG were so late in bringing lockdown in, the current number is rather higher.

I owuld also remind you that Edinburgh University reviewed the projections and methodology and confirmed them.

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P.S. WHO advice is now to avoid lockdowns!! France, hold my beer
Yet another lie. Their actual advice was to stop using lockdowns as your primary control method

As for Sweden....well your elephant is to explain why they are so massively worse than Denmark, Norway and Finland.
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  #15422  
Old 29.10.2020, 08:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sweden have managed the pandemic better by preserving their freedoms?
Why do you keep going on about Sweden? Why can't you realize that SWITZERLAND has been far more lenient since the Summer than Sweden has? We are a far different country socially & geographically than Sweden, and now we are paying the price...ICU units will be full in 10 days.

OK... now on to a different subject. One of my closest friends owns a bar and restaurant & she is in favor of a controlled lockdown. Her business is suffering dramatically due to the shortened hours, limited seating and general reduction of customers due to the fact that many are staying home right now. If the government declares a lockdown, her staff will still be paid and they can shut down other expenses and hope to recover. At this rate, they and many others will be bankrupt come 2021.
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  #15423  
Old 29.10.2020, 08:51
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Re: Coronavirus

Macron's speech from last night, subtitled:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_D_TWQIkyI
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  #15424  
Old 29.10.2020, 08:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why do you keep going on about Sweden? Why can't you realize that SWITZERLAND has been far more lenient since the Summer than Sweden has? We are a far different country socially & geographically than Sweden, and now we are paying the price...ICU units will be full in 10 days.

OK... now on to a different subject. One of my closest friends owns a bar and restaurant & she is in favor of a controlled lockdown. Her business is suffering dramatically due to the shortened hours, limited seating and general reduction of customers due to the fact that many are staying home right now. If the government declares a lockdown, her staff will still be paid and they can shut down other expenses and hope to recover. At this rate, they and many others will be bankrupt come 2021.
I totally see the points on restaurants and bars, they can stay open, but hardly have a path to stay alive. But on personnel cost, I suppose the employer can send personnel onto Kurzarbeit (so they get 80%) regardless of lockdown or not, right?
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Old 29.10.2020, 08:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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OK... now on to a different subject. One of my closest friends owns a bar and restaurant & she is in favor of a controlled lockdown. Her business is suffering dramatically due to the shortened hours, limited seating and general reduction of customers due to the fact that many are staying home right now. If the government declares a lockdown, her staff will still be paid and they can shut down other expenses and hope to recover. At this rate, they and many others will be bankrupt come 2021.
Ah yes. Of course they would. Because "the government" would pay. Rightly so of course, but let's do a little simple maths here: lockdown=more unemployment/bankruptcy/loss of jobs=increased strains on government/social systems while at the same time having fewer people paying significant or any taxes because out of work. And that's just in the near term.

Since you all seem to be getting more aggressive by the second about this mask discussion, you should instead just once think about above which has been told here time and time again, literally from day one when brilliant suggestions of "just printing more money" were made. 9 months later it apparently still isn't clear how an economy works. March/April cost this country some 30 billion $ or more. Where the hell do you all think that money is or will be coming from?
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  #15426  
Old 29.10.2020, 08:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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More fact-free posting I see.
The projection of 260,000 assumed just 2 measures. Quarantining of families where someone had symptoms plus social distancing of over 70s. As you (bloody well should) know, the actual measures taken went a long way past that.

Their scenario 2 assumed a full lockdown and projected 20,000 deaths (mid value with a fair range of possibilities). As HMG were so late in bringing lockdown in, the current number is rather higher.

I owuld also remind you that Edinburgh University reviewed the projections and methodology and confirmed them.

As for Sweden....well your elephant is to expalin why they are so massively worse than Denmark, Norway and Finland.
What about the University of Oxford and their projections? These just seem to be conveniently ignored! All these estimates and models are just that, little credence should be given to one over the other when they are so contradictory.

p.s. please stop accusing me of lying, the paper I'm referring to is found below and the estimate of 250,000 deaths is quite clear

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.


https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...9-Report-9.pdf

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Why do you keep going on about Sweden? Why can't you realize that SWITZERLAND has been far more lenient since the Summer than Sweden has? We are a far different country socially & geographically than Sweden, and now we are paying the price...ICU units will be full in 10 days.
I'm glad you've mentioned that, the majority on these pages were singing SWITZERLAND'S praises until fairly recently, saying what a great job she's done of handling the pandemic. Now the measures announced don't go far enough for many people, everyone is lining up to stick in the boot! Perhaps the members of this forum should hold their nerve under pressure as well as Switzerland is currently doing!
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  #15427  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you think the success of Swiss pandemic control depends on Tony's posts then we are truly _ _ _ _ _ d

I don't agree with a lot of his points, specially on masks, but he does bring a bit of balance to the discussion. No matter how absurd his posts might be, just counter them with better knowledgeable posts. Let better ideas win on merit and not on big tech style selective censorship.
Trouble is, it is part of a drip drip drip of misinformation and outright lies from the Alt-right elements on here that cumulatively influences people and ultimately results in the sort of nut jobs that demonstrate because it's all a plot to let Bill Gates inject microchips into all of us. Yes, we need to counter it. But the posting of continuous falsehoods has at some point to be stopped.
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  #15428  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ah yes. Of course they would. Because "the government" would pay. Rightly so of course, but let's do a little simple maths here: lockdown=more unemployment/bankruptcy/loss of jobs=increased strains on government/social systems while at the same time having fewer people paying significant or any taxes because out of work. And that's just in the near term.

Since you all seem to be getting more aggressive by the second about this mask discussion, you should instead just once think about above which has been told here time and time again, literally from day one when brilliant suggestions of "just printing more money" were made. 9 months later it apparently still isn't clear how an economy works. March/April cost this country some 30 billion $ or more. Where the hell do you all think that money is or will be coming from?
Is this you, Ueli?

I see your point absolutely. There are economists, however, who argue that a limited sharp lock-down is economically better than a long and painful muddling through with scared consumers. That is of course assuming the lock-down works.

I have sympathy for the Swiss approach in principle. I am afraid though measures were taken way too late and the health system will be extremely stressed in the next month.
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Old 29.10.2020, 09:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ah yes. Of course they would. Because "the government" would pay. Rightly so of course, but let's do a little simple maths here: lockdown=more unemployment/bankruptcy/loss of jobs=increased strains on government/social systems while at the same time having fewer people paying significant or any taxes because out of work. And that's just in the near term.

Since you all seem to be getting more aggressive by the second about this mask discussion, you should instead just once think about above which has been told here time and time again, literally from day one when brilliant suggestions of "just printing more money" were made. 9 months later it apparently still isn't clear how an economy works. March/April cost this country some 30 billion $ or more. Where the hell do you all think that money is or will be coming from?
The population just gave the government a go ahead to spend billions of dollars on fighter jets in the middle of a pandemic. Yet, it's the lockdown that will increase taxes ...
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  #15430  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is this you, Ueli?

I see your point absolutely. There are economists, however, who argue that a limited sharp lock-down is economically better than a long and painful muddling through with scared consumers. That is of course assuming the lock-down works.

I have sympathy for the Swiss approach in principle. I am afraid though measures were taken way too late and the health system will be extremely stressed in the next month.
This may have been true in July, however by going into a second lockdown Europe has just guaranteed a long and painful double-dip recession. Check out what the markets do today if you don't believe me.
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  #15431  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why do you keep going on about Sweden?
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I'm glad you've mentioned that,
but you're not going to answer the question?

Catching up, I see this post from last night

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TonyClifton, it's time you shut up. I'm all for free speech and alternative opinions, but I do not believe that advocacy of proven bullshit has any place on our forum. Your endless stream of posts that fly in the face of all empirical evidence has to stop. Take it elsewhere, if you must, but frankly, the only place I can imagine such crap would be tolerated is some conspiracy theorists' forum.

...

So stop with the lies and the misinformation. I've had more than enough of it and I'm pretty sure most of the others on EF have too. This is a time to pull together and do whatever we can to help those around us, not a time to try to undermine efforts to contain this pandemic.

Let me be clear: this advice applies equally to other members of EF who engage in similar posting activity with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic.
I can only agree. There must come a point where we start to view continued posting of obvious misinformation or bullshit, particularly stuff that's already been debunked, as nothing more than trolling, as we did for some folks a month or three ago.

I'd much prefer us not to be pushed to do so, as the extra effort it puts on to mods is significant and it means that we risk being accused of censorship, again. But we will if we have to.
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  #15432  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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p.s. please stop accusing me of lying, the paper I'm referring to is found below and the estimate of 250,000 deaths is quite clear

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.!
OK, either lying or you simply have as many problems with the old reading comprehension as FMF.

I guess these words from your own quote simply passed you by or you lack the brainpower to understand what they mean...:

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In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly)
Please read again and note what they were talking about (btw "household quarantine" means all members of a household isolate when one member tests positive). It is EXACTLY as I wrote previously. No lockdown, the what-if if they (the UK) didn't take more measures than just mitigation

Their lockdown projections are contained in the part headed "Suppression".

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What about the University of Oxford and their projections? These just seem to be conveniently ignored! All these estimates and models are just that, little credence should be given to one over the other when they are so contradictory.
Moving goalposts again? You mentioned Imperial, I answered Imperial.
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Last edited by baboon; 29.10.2020 at 09:50.
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  #15433  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have a million times already Sweden is an example that shows how a light approach to Covid, without measures such a masks and lockdowns has resulted in a better result to the much more stringent measures imposed in the rest of Europe.
And yet again you refuse to answer Denmark, Norway and Finland, all of whom are doing better on the Covid front AND the economic front.
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  #15434  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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The population just gave the government a go ahead to spend billions of dollars on fighter jets in the middle of a pandemic.

Got to love the Swiss, can't make my mind if they are really smart or just simpletons.
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Old 29.10.2020, 09:35
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Re: Coronavirus

I had to finally block Tony Clifton because it was the only way to make this forum -- and particularly this thread -- bearable.

He's just wasting people's time, and I think that is what is most annoying. Most of us wouldn't willingly go into a flat earth convention and attempt to engage in rational conversations with people, because we know it would lead to nothing but frustration and wasted time and energy. And that is what this thread was starting to feel like, because of him.

So it's not about having a problem with people whose opinions differ from your own. It's about not wanting to waste your time attempting to have rational conversations with irrational people.
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  #15436  
Old 29.10.2020, 09:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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OK... now on to a different subject. One of my closest friends owns a bar and restaurant & she is in favor of a controlled lockdown. Her business is suffering dramatically due to the shortened hours, limited seating and general reduction of customers due to the fact that many are staying home right now. If the government declares a lockdown, her staff will still be paid and they can shut down other expenses and hope to recover. At this rate, they and many others will be bankrupt come 2021.
she is in favour of a bailout, not a lockdown. i'm sure if would be different is she was forced to close without compensation.
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Old 29.10.2020, 09:40
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Re: Coronavirus

Europe has failed in the corona response. The incompetence has just been appalling. It isn't even like they didn't know what to do. They should have learned from the Asian countries who had it first and then who told them what to do.

Lockdown isn't a magical process whereby the virus disappears. You lockdown to reduce cases to a minimal number whereafter you can track and trace every further case to stop spread. It isn't to bring cases down only to do nothing and let them rise up to the point where you have to lockdown again and again.

I do wonder with this poor response, whether the final death toll would just end up being the same as if they did nothing at all!
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Old 29.10.2020, 09:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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I can only agree. There must come a point where we start to view continued posting of obvious misinformation or bullshit, particularly stuff that's already been debunked, as nothing more than trolling, as we did for some folks a month or three ago.
Are you going to do the same for the ones posting "obvious misinformation or bullshit" but that happen to be on the other "side" as well? They've been proven wrong and have been posting consistently and continuously bullshit as well.
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Old 29.10.2020, 09:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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And yet again you refuse to answer Denmark, Norway and Finland, all of whom are doing better on the Covid front AND the economic front.
I've answered that so many times already, that Sweden claim they were hit harder at the beginning of the pandemic, that Sweden failed in protecting care homes.

Now Denmark has a higher infection rate than Sweden. All the countries you mentioned are doing better than the rest of Europe in spite of having no mandatory mask requirement. More inconvenient reference points!
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Old 29.10.2020, 09:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Europe has failed in the corona response. The incompetence has just been appalling. It isn't even like they didn't know what to do. They should have learned from the Asian countries who had it first and then who told them what to do.

Lockdown isn't a magical process whereby the virus disappears. You lockdown to reduce cases to a minimal number whereafter you can track and trace every further case to stop spread. It isn't to bring cases down only to do nothing and let them rise up to the point where you have to lockdown again and again.

I do wonder with this poor response, whether the final death toll would just end up being the same as if they did nothing at all!
Well elders stand a good chance of beating Covid but they stand no chance surving lockdown.

So in order to protect the elder from covid, we make sure we kill them, so they don't catch covid. So everybody can feel safe

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The hidden Covid-19 health crisis: Elderly people are dying from isolation

The unseen cost of lockdowns

The effort to shield elderly, frail and disabled residents from the coronavirus has created another wrenching health crisis: The confinement meant to protect the most vulnerable is also threatening their lives.

“The isolation is robbing them of whatever good days they have left — it accelerates the aging process,” Joshua Uy, associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, said.
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