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Old 30.10.2020, 15:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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How do you keep the non-obese, healthy folks without prior conditions under 40 away from the rest of folks?
65+ ordered to stay at home unless for essential activities. Which is what we should be doing.

It won't be perfect, but nothing is. It'd be a lot better than nothing.

Could anyone tell me why not? I'm not saying that should be the only restriction - e.g. we might have to shut bars and gyms even if we did do this.

It'd save lives whilst building some herd effect.
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  #15662  
Old 30.10.2020, 15:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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At risk ordered to stay at home. Which is what we should be doing. It won't be perfect, but nothing is. It'd be a lot better than nothing.
This. But again that point was discussed 100 pages ago and then again three million tines before that.
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  #15663  
Old 30.10.2020, 15:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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And some others (always the same three or four) constantly groan at or red rep everyone whose opinion they don't agree with. Talk about childish.
That’s a different issue but is equally as childish.
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  #15664  
Old 30.10.2020, 15:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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.......

There's always the odd young person that dies from something random, whether it's pneumonia or meningitis or dengue or heart attack or a stroke. I had meningitis once with life-threateningly high fever and spent weeks in the hospital and home care. It happens. It's the massive exception, not the rule. Reporting things as above is beyond unethical as the pretty much only universally accepted fact in this whole mess is that non-obese, healthy folks without prior conditions under 40 have a higher chance of dying in a car crash than dying from this.
Do you agree it's increasingly likely as you get older (after 40) to have prior conditions as we all get something eventually, as you yourself have above. I don't care about your age, but were you diagnosed before 40 yourself with meningitis? If so, you don't even meet your own "without prior conditions" test at any age any longer.

Secondly "a higher chance" is just a comparative not an absolute so not necessarily a fact in itself. A fact usually requires no qualification, and is undeniably true. Perhaps you meant to provide a logical predicate argument?

Thirdly, as you yourself document, you benefited from intense, personal, durative care in hospital and at home with support for meningitis based on need and not capacity constraints. Exactly such care is coming under pressure and shorter supply as beds fill up and staff become fatigued/exposed.

Additionally you had full treatments available, whereas some folks have been denied full treatment or even access to hospitals based on their age/co-morbidities such as covered in the recent WSJ article on Sweden's elderly population denied access to hospital and non-palliative (interventionist)
care. (By treatment I don't mean a vaccine).

Finally, given the increasing diagnosis count, the numbers exceed the definition of "exceptional". It happens sure, as does influenza. However comparing a condition without full treatment to conditions with full recovery options is logically flawed IMHO.

I congratulate you however on having had the opportunity to get the full spectrum of care you needed, where you needed it (at home or in hospital) for as long as you needed it (weeks) with effective treatments available (as evidenced by your complete recovery). I'm very happy for you personally as someone diagnosed with a life-threatening condition at 47, still requiring care. (previously never unwell)

Your meningitis treatment experience and outcome was sadly not being provided to all with COVID-19 of a life-threatening nature in 2020, according to the WSJ report. A UK report of last week seemed to indicate saving the NHS rather than patients became the priority there during the first outbreak.

To your continued good health!
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  #15665  
Old 30.10.2020, 16:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks for the feedback, perhaps that is childish. It's also not nice either to be on the receiving end of it either. Emojis are just the way of another way of communicating, and I accept I use them more than most! On the other side, you shouldn't read too much into them, or should you? I dunno
I don’t really read that much into them and use them myself on occasion but I do think there’s a time and a place for them and tongue poking, big grin etc just detracts from the point being made in my opinion.

It makes it look like people are treating it all a a big joke when in reality it is very far from being that.

By the way I’m not singling you out here, it was just your post that I replied to. As I said you are not the only person who does it.
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  #15666  
Old 30.10.2020, 16:17
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Re: Coronavirus

Are there some admission criteria between the cantons for the case one canton has no more capacity? Is that a decision of the receiving hospital/canton?

Asking from a canton with 1 bed left ...
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  #15667  
Old 30.10.2020, 16:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wasn't there someone on here yesterday saying that the Imperial College study was PROOF of the Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty projection of 100,000 new cases in the UK per day by October?

Well not according to the University of Cambridge! 55,000 cases per day doubling every 17 days. That's the darn problem with science, no one is ever in agreement

Now about that misinformation...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...cond-wave.html
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Oh come on, yesterday was ridiculous. An unwarranted, personal attack from someone who is supposed to be a moderator on this forum. I think I should be entitled to enjoy this small vindication.
What vindication?

I fully understand that you don't read what you post and as a result, continually shove your own foot in your mouth. But I had a tiny hope that just maybe you'd be able to read a Daily Mail article, unreferenced though it is.

aSITUS has made the points I wanted to make but I'll underscore the key point: look at the confidence intervals. I'm fairly certain you're not a statistician or any type of scientist and have no real clue about confidence intervals, let alone the probability on which they're based (this is obvious from your response to aSITUS: "even with allowance for confidence interval there is no overlap" and "in real terms a range of 60,000+" -- non-overlapping CIs @95% do NOT indicate mutual exclusivity!), so to make it easy for you, yes, there is uncertainty about the projections (that's why they're called "projections") and in fact they could be woefully underestimating the numbers. The upper limits of the projections are NOT the upper ends of the confidence intervals.

So you have missed or simply not understood a vital element of the two projections.

Furthermore, the projection made by Vallance was based on no further mitigation of the virus, a condition that fortunately has not applied. Nevertheless, recorded daily infections on the day he made his infamous statement last month were 4,368. Yesterday 23,065 new infections were recorded. I look forward to your explanation how that fivefold jump in infections is a good thing, and how it negates Vallance's point.

But wibble on, nothing will change your self-centred attitude until someone close to you, or you yourself, catches and suffers from the virus. For your sake, I sincerely hope you don't have to learn that way. Honestly, I do, as I'm speaking from experience.

Last edited by Guest; 30.10.2020 at 23:33.
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  #15668  
Old 30.10.2020, 16:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are there some admission criteria between the cantons for the case one canton has no more capacity? Is that a decision of the receiving hospital/canton?

Asking from a canton with 1 bed left ...
This from Geneva, via the Tribune de Geneve and Le Temps:

- If ICU beds are scarce: "We will exclude, for example, cancer patients with a life expectancy of less than one year or people suffering from terminal degenerative neuropathy (such as Alzheimer's). Chronic patients with very pronounced heart failure, cirrhosis of the liver level 8 (on a scale of 15) or those with severe dementia would also be refused."

- If ICU capacity is saturated: "Restrictions are more strict at the next stage, where intensive care is full to bursting point. Only brief cardio-pulmonary resuscitation is still performed in specific cases. The same kind of illnesses [as above], but at earlier stages, become exclusion criteria. The beds that would become available would be closed to people over 85 years of age, or to those over 75 years of age with cirrhosis or renal or cardiac insufficiency of a certain level, or to those whose life expectancy is less than two years".
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  #15669  
Old 30.10.2020, 16:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Marton has been on my ignore list for months now so I don't see anything that he/she posts. Ironically for the reason, amongst many others of posting links to Time magzine articles and presenting them as confirmation/fact when no one takes Time magazine seriously anymore.
.
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Wasn't there someone on here yesterday saying that the Imperial College study was PROOF of the Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty projection of 100,000 new cases in the UK per day by October?

Well not according to the University of Cambridge! 55,000 cases per day doubling every 17 days. That's the darn problem with science, no one is ever in agreement

Now about that misinformation...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...cond-wave.html
No one takes Time magazine seriously anymore but the Daily Mail is a serious source .

From your Daily Mail link
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These studies use different data and methods to estimate the daily number of new infections and the doubling time in England.

'However, both this group and the REACT group are very careful to estimate the uncertainty in their numbers.
For something moving as quickly as Covid-19, there is always going to be uncertainty.
This is the scientific process.

The University of Oxford's Professor James Naismith, not involved with either study, said: 'I would emphasise that taking these studies together or individually, we can be almost certain that we will see an increase in the number of deaths per day from Covid-19 over the next few weeks and each death will represent a tragedy for the families and friends left behind.'
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  #15670  
Old 30.10.2020, 16:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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This from Geneva, via the Tribune de Geneve and Le Temps:

- If ICU beds are scarce: "We will exclude, for example, cancer patients with a life expectancy of less than one year or people suffering from terminal degenerative neuropathy (such as Alzheimer's). Chronic patients with very pronounced heart failure, cirrhosis of the liver level 8 (on a scale of 15) or those with severe dementia would also be refused."

- If ICU capacity is saturated: "Restrictions are more strict at the next stage, where intensive care is full to bursting point. Only brief cardio-pulmonary resuscitation is still performed in specific cases. The same kind of illnesses [as above], but at earlier stages, become exclusion criteria. The beds that would become available would be closed to people over 85 years of age, or to those over 75 years of age with cirrhosis or renal or cardiac insufficiency of a certain level, or to those whose life expectancy is less than two years".
Thats some sobering reading
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Old 30.10.2020, 17:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Last week a 17-year old girl died "because of the covid". People were bombarded with this news. Her sister debunked it. It turned out, that the poor girl was struggling with her hearth her whole life. She was tested covid positive, when she died.
FIL passed Tuesday. 94. Complications from dementia. Tested positive for C-19. Some fluid in the lungs, but lung capacity never deteriorated during his 2 weeks in hospital. Effectively asymptomatic.

This would be a case of an outlier on the high end of the age range.

Very interested to see which column his death will be counted in.
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Old 30.10.2020, 17:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wasn't there someone on here yesterday saying that the Imperial College study was PROOF of the Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty projection of 100,000 new cases in the UK per day by October?

Well not according to the University of Cambridge! 55,000 cases per day doubling every 17 days. That's the darn problem with science, no one is ever in agreement

Now about that misinformation...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...cond-wave.html
Wasn't that you in your totally failed attempt to rubbish the Imperial work? Trying to claim that the projections related to the lockdown case when in fact they related to a mild mitigation case?
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  #15673  
Old 30.10.2020, 17:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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FIL passed Tuesday. 94. Complications from dementia. Tested positive for C-19. Some fluid in the lungs, but lung capacity never deteriorated during his 2 weeks in hospital. Effectively asymptomatic.

This would be a case of an outlier on the high end of the age range.

Very interested to see which column his death will be counted in.
I am sorry to hear that
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Old 30.10.2020, 17:52
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Re: Coronavirus

There is curfew in CZ at 9pm. Only emergency exits and walking your dog. I just saw a photo in the media of a person with a large stuffed animal/toy on his leash, on a dark town square.

Health stats guys published their numbers again today, R is 1.1 so there is a slight hope. They said that to feel like the infection is under control they want 0.73.
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Old 30.10.2020, 18:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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They'd only have 1 free bed without COVID-19. Surely they can make some additional capacity there? Or maybe its typical for SO ppl to get treatment in another kanton.
The matter was addressed in the second press conference this afternoon. There's little point creating extra capacity if you don't have enough qualified staff to man it. What concerns me is that back in March, Switzerland had the capacity to accept patients from France.
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  #15676  
Old 30.10.2020, 18:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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There is curfew in CZ at 9pm. Only emergency exits and walking your dog. I just saw a photo in the media of a person with a large stuffed animal/toy on his leash, on a dark town square.

Health stats guys published their numbers again today, R is 1.1 so there is a slight hope. They said that to feel like the infection is under control they want 0.73.
I once tried to walk my cats on a leash One pretended to faint & the other one bit me in the leg....
Plan B in case of lockdown, putting a leash on hubby
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  #15677  
Old 30.10.2020, 18:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are there some admission criteria between the cantons for the case one canton has no more capacity? Is that a decision of the receiving hospital/canton?

Asking from a canton with 1 bed left ...
God knows what their thinking or criteria is now. Going off this latest press conference, the mixed messages are pretty mindnumbing. Don't go out or meet friends and socialise, but we won't shut down the economy.

My thinking is that businesses would perhaps be better protected by a 2-6 week lockdown, with a clear end goal, than this gradual dwindling of their already impacted revenue.

https://twitter.com/CoronaEnglish/st...81895036297218
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Old 30.10.2020, 18:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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I once tried to walk my cats on a leash One pretended to faint & the other one bit me in the leg....
Plan B in case of lockdown, putting a leash on hubby
Yeah, I heard that some like it

Others are into stuffed animals (Hello, Kitty Tom).
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Old 30.10.2020, 18:31
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Re: Coronavirus

I think the count of people I know (or their direct family members) who've tested positive for Covid19 is currently at 14.
Of those, the oldest person is 48, the youngest 21.
As far as they know, only 1 person had any relevant pre-exisiting condition.

8 of the 12 people were particularly fit and healthy (no overweight, no underweight, no smoking, no or very little alcohol, doing sport several times a week, paying attention to their nutrition and rest, physically and mentally stable), before having been tested positive.

3 remained completely asymptomatic, throughout.
The symptoms of the remaining 9 were of mild to medium severity.
4 of these went to hospital, but were released after a few days.
The others stayed at home.

8 of the 12 made a complete recovery within a matter of a week or two or three weeks.

The remaining 4 of the 12, of which 3 out of the "particularly fit and healthy" group, plus the 1 person with a pre-existing condition, became long-haulers. That was awful! They remained in brain-fog and dragged themselves around, every task physically exhausting (or even impossible) and emotionally overwhelming, for several months, before feeling a very slow but gradual improvement.

Only once, however, did I meet a person (and it was not one of the abovedescribed) who exhibited any kind of "hysteria" or "panic" about Corona and Covid19. It remains a mystery to me how these phrases recur in the media (including but not only EF) when, in real life, it seems so very, very rare.
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Old 30.10.2020, 18:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think the count of people I know (or their direct family members) who've tested positive for Covid19 is currently at 14.
Of those, the oldest person is 48, the youngest 21.
As far as they know, only 1 person had any relevant pre-exisiting condition.

8 of the 12 people were particularly fit and healthy (no overweight, no underweight, no smoking, no or very little alcohol, doing sport several times a week, paying attention to their nutrition and rest, physically and mentally stable), before having been tested positive.

3 remained completely asymptomatic, throughout.
The symptoms of the remaining 9 were of mild to medium severity.
4 of these went to hospital, but were released after a few days.
The others stayed at home.

8 of the 12 made a complete recovery within a matter of a week or two or three weeks.

The remaining 4 of the 12, of which 3 out of the "particularly fit and healthy" group, plus the 1 person with a pre-existing condition, became long-haulers. That was awful! They remained in brain-fog and dragged themselves around, every task physically exhausting (or even impossible) and emotionally overwhelming, for several months, before feeling a very slow but gradual improvement.

Only once, however, did I meet a person (and it was not one of the abovedescribed) who exhibited any kind of "hysteria" or "panic" about Corona and Covid19. It remains a mystery to me how these phrases recur in the media (including but not only EF) when, in real life, it seems so very, very rare.
Hope they will fully recover.
Commercial break, pity they never met the EF experts who could tell them it is very minor...
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