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  #141  
Old 28.01.2020, 10:03
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Their economy is growing 10% this year, with or without coronavirus
That's just from mask sales.
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  #142  
Old 28.01.2020, 10:09
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Odd non-sequitur, but not quite correct. "Real GDP growth in 2019 was 6.1%, according to official numbers.", according to Forbes. The IMF recently reviewed up their forecast for 2020, from 5.8% to 6%, which was "acknowledged" by the China Morning Post (based in HK, but owned by Alibaba).
Their well informed non political state owned newspapers will proof you wrong
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  #143  
Old 28.01.2020, 10:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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The two people in Zürich have been cleared from suspicion of having the virus, Germany however has confirmed their first patient.

And I still believe as I do from the start that China is not telling the truth about the numbers or even comes close to telling the truth. We're stil at the beginning of it all and an end is nowhere in sight.
Will be interesting to really see the significance if we do begin to get more accurate numbers.

Currently the mortality rate is sat at about 2.5% which isn't too serious - "bird flu" was about 60%, "swine flu" much lower at about 0.2% and by way of comparison, SARS at about 11%.
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  #144  
Old 28.01.2020, 10:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Odd non-sequitur, but not quite correct. "Real GDP growth in 2019 was 6.1%, according to official numbers.", according to Forbes. The IMF recently reviewed up their forecast for 2020, from 5.8% to 6%, which was "acknowledged" by the China Morning Post (based in HK, but owned by Alibaba).
4% off or not, we are their markets. So...maybe people will change their spending habits. Or not.
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  #145  
Old 28.01.2020, 10:51
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It's significant that China has the largest experiment centre in the world for infectious diseases in Wuhan. And one can imagine what their experiments on animals are like and the conditions they live in. Of course the treatment of animals is disgusting in China so regard this virus as their own cause.
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  #146  
Old 28.01.2020, 11:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well heres some points to consider

"China’s attempts to curb the disease’s spread — essentially cordoning off the major cities in the province of Hubei, including its capital, Wuhan, a city of 11 million people — are a “public health experiment, the scale of which has not been done before,” said Dr. William Schaffner"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/w...ina-hubei.html
I wonder why flus coming from Asia always cause a world-wide outcry and panic while we simply kind of live with the yearly flue around here?

Apparently up to 20'000 people die from the flu yearly in Germany only. Worldwide it's 250'000 - 500'000 people. (That's vague, to me that means they don't seriously count them). source in German
2015 exceptionally many people died from the flu in Switzerland: 2500 people. In one flu-season! admin.ch (German only, strangely enough)

If a flu starts in China, it's their fault. If it (and somehow as it's a yearly thing, there is no if about it) starts in Europe it's simply "this year's flu". Not okay, imo.

No European city has ever been blocked off/quarantined due to a flu in my life-time, as far as I know. So maybe we should appreciate that the Chinese seem much more alert/considered than "us"? Would that be a view point worth taking?
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  #147  
Old 28.01.2020, 11:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Breaking news!!! In Zürich the number of sufferers has increased dramatically. From one case to two ! ( unconfirmed )
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The headline will read, "Coronavirus cases surge over last 24 hours in Zurich"
Lies, damned lies, and statistics...
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  #148  
Old 28.01.2020, 11:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder why flus coming from Asia always cause a world-wide outcry and panic while we simply kind of live with the yearly flue around here?
This, like SARS, is not flu. It doesn't respond to the anti-virals like Tamiflu. Flu variations are generally able to be identified and a vaccine produced within a few months, so any epidemic will eventually be contained, whereas the coronavirus in its several forms doesn't have any effective vaccines.

I don't think the panic is because it's from China, more that conditions (e.g. animal welfare and market hygiene) in China may be more conducive to new viruses making the leap into humans. It's the unknown factors of a new virus that make the medical world sit up and take notice like this.

Most deaths attributed by flu tend to be of those already ill, so they're not all really "caused", more accelerated, by the virus. So the figures don't accurately reflect the relative risk, and of course with the new virus we have no idea about how bad it may be, hence all the caution being exhibited.
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  #149  
Old 28.01.2020, 11:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder why flus coming from Asia always cause a world-wide outcry and panic while we simply kind of live with the yearly flue around here?

Apparently up to 20'000 people die from the flu yearly in Germany only. Worldwide it's 250'000 - 500'000 people. (That's vague, to me that means they don't seriously count them). source in German
2015 exceptionally many people died from the flu in Switzerland: 2500 people. In one flu-season! admin.ch (German only, strangely enough)

If a flu starts in China, it's their fault. If it (and somehow as it's a yearly thing, there is no if about it) starts in Europe it's simply "this year's flu". Not okay, imo.

No European city has ever been blocked off/quarantined due to a flu in my life-time, as far as I know. So maybe we should appreciate that the Chinese seem much more alert/considered than "us"? Would that be a view point worth taking?
Seasonal flu has around a 0.1% mortality rate (up to 1% in the over 65s) - if you get it, even if you are old or infirm, you'll likely be fine.

Currently it seems this current outbreak is about 25x or so more virulent, so it is a bit more worrying. Still not really looking like some Spanish Flu pandemic, but enough to get people taking notice.
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  #150  
Old 28.01.2020, 11:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Their well informed non political state owned newspapers will proof you wrong
Unless I misunderstand your reply, you're being sarcastic, which means you didnt' understand my post. It was not estimated by a Chinese newspaper, it was estimated by the IMF. It was "acknowledged" by the paper, which means it wasn't censored. That implies the actual growth expectation is certainly not higher than 6%.
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  #151  
Old 28.01.2020, 12:38
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Unless I misunderstand your reply, you're being sarcastic, which means you didnt' understand my post. It was not estimated by a Chinese newspaper, it was estimated by the IMF. It was "acknowledged" by the paper, which means it wasn't censored. That implies the actual growth expectation is certainly not higher than 6%.
It was sarcastic, and what I ment was that no matter what this disease will do with the Chinese economy I tend to think that Chinese publications will make it sound less worse (by making the numbers a bit more positive than they actually are)
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  #152  
Old 28.01.2020, 12:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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No European city has ever been blocked off/quarantined due to a flu in my life-time, as far as I know. So maybe we should appreciate that the Chinese seem much more alert/considered than "us"? Would that be a view point worth taking?
There was an outbreak of small pox in the former Yugoslavia in the '70s that led to quarantine orders.

When I was doing my family tree, I found that the sister of one of my ancestors lost her husband and all 5 children to an outbreak of cholera in 1832. Stuff that just beggars belief nowadays, thankfully.
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  #153  
Old 28.01.2020, 12:55
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Re: Coronavirus

Word on the street says "Germany confirms first human transmission in Europe"

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A German man who tested positive for the strain of coronavirus currently sweeping China was infected by a work colleague, officials said on Tuesday, in what is believed to be the first human transmission in Europe, AFP reports.

The man had not visited China but a Chinese work colleague who was in Germany last week had started to feel sick on the flight home on 23 January, said Andreas Zapf, the head of the Bavarian state office for health and food safety.

He had attended a training session given by his Chinese colleague on 21 January at the office of a car parts supplier Webasto in Stockdorf in Bavaria and tested positive for the virus on Monday evening. Unlike the other patients, the 33-year-old had not recently travelled to China.

He remains in hospital in an isolation ward, but Zapf said he “was doing well”.
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  #154  
Old 28.01.2020, 12:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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It was sarcastic, and what I ment was that no matter what this disease will do with the Chinese economy I tend to think that Chinese publications will make it sound less worse (by making the numbers a bit more positive than they actually are)
Without saying too much, I have a connection to a public health doctor in a position of responsibilty in government. It is believed by them - and I have no reason to doubt this having lived in China for many years - that the hospitals are not testing people because until they test positive they aren't a negative statistic.

This is a VERY PRC thing to do. Reality doesn't matter so long as the numbers are still acceptable within the parameters defined by Beijing. So as Beijing acknowledges the problem, the numbers magically jump. It happened in SARS, it's happening here.

It's just Mao's steel quotas revisited.
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  #155  
Old 28.01.2020, 12:59
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Without saying too much, I have a connection to a public health doctor in a position of responsibilty in government. It is believed by them - and I have no reason to doubt this having lived in China for many years - that the hospitals are not testing people because until they test positive they aren't a negative statistic.

This is a VERY PRC thing to do. Reality doesn't matter so long as the numbers are still acceptable within the parameters defined by Beijing. So as Beijing acknowledges the problem, the numbers magically jump. It happened in SARS, it's happening here.

It's just Mao's steel quotas revisited.



As i said before, all depends on who is doing the counting
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  #156  
Old 28.01.2020, 13:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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There was an outbreak of small pox in the former Yugoslavia in the '70s that led to quarantine orders. .....
By locking down entire cities? Or by putting them in quarantine in hospitals which is what we normally do around here.
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  #157  
Old 28.01.2020, 13:33
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Re: Coronavirus

And here is me wondering why the world is losing it´s mind, Corona is nice on a hot day but it´s never been a great beer.
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  #158  
Old 28.01.2020, 13:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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By locking down entire cities? Or by putting them in quarantine in hospitals which is what we normally do around here.
Which is entirely impossible if the estimates from Sci Am are correct (10 000 cases infected, with 10-14 days of being asymptomatically contageous...). I wonder if the hospitals being put up with a speed of light I think are not for cardiac and breathing machines.

People wearing masks, btw, on public transport (from airport) here.
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  #159  
Old 28.01.2020, 14:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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And here is me wondering why the world is losing it´s mind, Corona is nice on a hot day but it´s never been a great beer.
not enough limes to go around
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Old 28.01.2020, 14:15
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Re: Coronavirus

Coronavirus

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and here is me wondering why the world is losing it´s mind, corona is nice on a hot day but it´s never been a great beer.
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