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Old 06.11.2020, 15:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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That would still leave you with R=3 after two months. That's not even the usefulness of a drop in the bucket.
But given we are fighting around the 1 level that makes a significant difference. One month would turn an R of 1.1 to 1 - in reality probably the effect would be greater as the people in "harms way" - teachers, doctors and idiots basically, would have been infected to a much greater extent.

I see it just as an aid to the (hopefully) naturally falling R by social distancing - I don't think we will or need to reach absolute herd immunity. But I also don't think we can manage to get through the winter with no significant infection.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 06.11.2020 at 15:24.
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  #16162  
Old 06.11.2020, 15:07
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Not sure I can agree with that. Unless the positivity is increasing its suggesting the peak is imminent (within the next week or so)...
If you look back over the last few weeks you will see there is no steady increase, rather you get a jump followed by a few days of relative stability. Hence the need to look at the 7 day curve....which is still pointing upwards.
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Old 06.11.2020, 15:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you look back over the last few weeks you will see there is no steady increase, rather you get a jump followed by a few days of relative stability. Hence the need to look at the 7 day curve....which is still pointing upwards.
Its up, but very clearly flattening. If I'm right pretty soon the 7 day average should start to fall - lets see.
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Old 06.11.2020, 15:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Its up, but very clearly flattening. If I'm right pretty soon the 7 day average should start to fall - lets see.
I hope you are right. But I remember that week in September when all looked like it was coming down, and then just exploded.
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Old 06.11.2020, 15:50
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Re: Coronavirus

Not looking forward to Corona winter!

Question, is this the official second wave? What if this is just a continuation of the first one that was briefly interrupted? Maybe the real deal 2nd wave will come later?
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Old 06.11.2020, 15:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not looking forward to Corona winter!

Question, is this the official second wave? What if this is just a continuation of the first one that was briefly interrupted? Maybe the real deal 2nd wave will come later?
Oh my, you need some distraction!! You should ask one of those yelling old ladies out on a date
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Old 06.11.2020, 16:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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I hope you are right. But I remember that week in September when all looked like it was coming down, and then just exploded.
Looking at the deaths - its pretty clear it was indeed coming down before the explosion!
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  #16168  
Old 06.11.2020, 16:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh my, you need some distraction!! You should ask one of those yelling old ladies out on a date
I would, but they don't hang out on street corners any more due to Corona I have to be patient and hope for the best
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Old 06.11.2020, 16:07
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Re: Coronavirus

Old biddie and OH are mightily happy we live in the country, with ski resorts and miles and miles of x country skiing right on our door step- so we can spend this second lockdown outside having fun.
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Old 06.11.2020, 16:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Old biddie and OH are mightily happy we live in the country, with ski resorts and miles and miles of x country skiing right on our door step- so we can spend this second lockdown outside having fun.

Just don't go off-piste and break any bones
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Old 06.11.2020, 17:05
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Just don't go off-piste and break any bones
Kinda hard not to go off piste when you're enjoying your cross-country skiing...
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  #16172  
Old 06.11.2020, 17:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not looking forward to Corona winter!

Question, is this the official second wave? What if this is just a continuation of the first one that was briefly interrupted? Maybe the real deal 2nd wave will come later?

I have broken so many in my time- they are all really strong now- and 2 knee replacement- so they can't break
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  #16173  
Old 06.11.2020, 18:02
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Re: Coronavirus

So today is "Flu Jab Day" as recommended by BAG where Swiss chemists' were supposed to be administering jabs to all and sundry at CHF30 a prick.

Rushed down to our village Apotheke anticipating an orderly, socially distanced queue.

The place was empty and they explained at length that they had not been sent a single vaccine dose. On the bright side, they did have a waiting list for early December shots - but with only one dose still available.

Meanwhile back in Blighty the NHS are vaccinating my aging siblings with no supply problems and free of charge.

Are we in Switzerland - or what??
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  #16174  
Old 06.11.2020, 18:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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So today is "Flu Jab Day" as recommended by BAG where Swiss chemists' were supposed to be administering jabs to all and sundry at CHF30 a prick.

Rushed down to our village Apotheke anticipating an orderly, socially distanced queue.

The place was empty and they explained at length that they had not been sent a single vaccine dose. On the bright side, they did have a waiting list for early December shots - but with only one dose still available.

Meanwhile back in Blighty the NHS are vaccinating my aging siblings with no supply problems and free of charge.

Are we in Switzerland - or what??
We are in Switzerland, so what. I feel for you, you guys in your age bracket should be a priority. But there are other priorities at the moment, too, people who really get exposed everyday and can't do otherwise - health care staff, teachers, police, firemen, day care people, etc. Except I can't get mine, either. Out of stock.

Last edited by MusicChick; 06.11.2020 at 18:31.
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Old 06.11.2020, 18:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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So today is "Flu Jab Day" as recommended by BAG where Swiss chemists' were supposed to be administering jabs to all and sundry at CHF30 a prick.

Rushed down to our village Apotheke anticipating an orderly, socially distanced queue.

The place was empty and they explained at length that they had not been sent a single vaccine dose. On the bright side, they did have a waiting list for early December shots - but with only one dose still available.

Meanwhile back in Blighty the NHS are vaccinating my aging siblings with no supply problems and free of charge.

Are we in Switzerland - or what??
I called the pharmacy two days ago. Same result. Told me to call again end of the month. Haven't called my GP though, they might have some.

Amazing that they did not even take the campaign for down. Not very impressed with the Swiss way of handling this.
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Old 06.11.2020, 19:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Its up, but very clearly flattening. If I'm right pretty soon the 7 day average should start to fall - lets see.
Fri 28 Aug 7 day inc = 2,014
Fri 4 Sep 7 day inc = 2,186
Fri 11 Sep 7 day inc = 2,707
Fri 18 Sep 7 day inc = 3,044
Fri 25 Sep 7 day inc = 2,581
**1 Oct - Events allowed again**
Fri 2 Oct 7 day inc = 2,520
Fri 9 Oct 7 day inc = 5,984
Fri 16 Oct 7 day inc = 14,054
Fri 23 Oct 7 day inc = 29,231
Fri 30 Oct 7 day inc = 50,598
Fri 6 Nov 7 day inc = 57,662

These are the total new cases for the previous 7 days up to, and including the date given.
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  #16177  
Old 06.11.2020, 19:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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.. as the people in "harms way" - teachers, doctors and idiots basically, would have been infected to a much greater extent..
Interesting wording..
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  #16178  
Old 06.11.2020, 20:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Kinda hard not to go off piste when you're enjoying your cross-country skiing...
Will soon be piste
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Old 06.11.2020, 20:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fri 28 Aug 7 day inc = 2,014
Fri 4 Sep 7 day inc = 2,186
Fri 11 Sep 7 day inc = 2,707
Fri 18 Sep 7 day inc = 3,044
Fri 25 Sep 7 day inc = 2,581
**1 Oct - Events allowed again**
Fri 2 Oct 7 day inc = 2,520
Fri 9 Oct 7 day inc = 5,984
Fri 16 Oct 7 day inc = 14,054
Fri 23 Oct 7 day inc = 29,231
Fri 30 Oct 7 day inc = 50,598
Fri 6 Nov 7 day inc = 57,662

These are the total new cases for the previous 7 days up to, and including the date given.
From 9 to 16 Oct 135% increase, from 16 to 23 Oct 108% increase, from 23 to 30 Oct 73% increase, from 30 Oct to 6 Nov 14% increase.........the increase may be zero by Nov 13

Of course, even if the increase is zero that means an stabilization around 60K new cases per week. But at least the situation is getting under control. It's ugly, but at least is not getting worse.
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Old 06.11.2020, 20:16
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Re: Coronavirus

This is the most obscene insult to the dead in Malta.
The chief of the health dept had to confirm the hazmat suits are not required at funerals after a cofin was brought into a church with the coffin bearers dressed in hazmat suits! The fear is out of control


https://lovinmalta.com/news/no-need-...auci-confirms/
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