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  #16381  
Old 10.11.2020, 15:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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I just saw that there was a press conference earlier today.

Were there any announcements in terms of new restrictions?
Of course not ...

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/coronavir...gen-ld.1542664
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  #16382  
Old 10.11.2020, 15:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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I just saw that there was a press conference earlier today.

Were there any announcements in terms of new restrictions?
No, even one of the speakers said something like cautious optimism concerning the number of new cases.

Considering the sginificative difference among cantons in number of cases, I don't expect federal ordinances but cantonal ones.
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  #16383  
Old 10.11.2020, 15:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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...and Italy closes the border to shopping and tourism from CH. Only cross-border workers allowed. https://www.thelocal.ch/20201110/how...nton-of-ticino

Vietato fare la spesa in Italia http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/do...-governo/15638
Already since last Friday.

But that's a unilateral decision by Italy.

Tom
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  #16384  
Old 10.11.2020, 15:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Now they need to close the border to frontalieri, and not just normal people.
So totally ignoring the truth that any given person coming from Italy is significatly LESS likely to be infected than a Swiss resident.

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...and Italy closes the border to shopping and tourism from CH. Only cross-border workers allowed. https://www.thelocal.ch/20201110/how...nton-of-ticino
Probably the ultimate proof of just how badly the BR have screwed this up here.
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  #16385  
Old 10.11.2020, 15:47
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Re: Coronavirus

And to the surprise of no-one except maybe the likes of V__, the death rates spike again. Roughly 300 more than the usual upper limit already in the week ending 1 November, sadly I would be pretty sure the March/April peak will have been easily passed since.

https://interaktiv.tagesanzeiger.ch/...n-coronavirus/ (requires registration)
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Old 10.11.2020, 15:53
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Re: Coronavirus

Thanks.

I read yesterday that Geneva has the highest rate of new infections in all of Europe. I don't know what the hell the Swiss gov't is waiting for, exactly. I live in the canton of Zurich, in a very high-risk area (according to the stats in the link that Roegner had posted), and yet people here are practically behaving as though there isn't even a pandemic. Not wearing masks outside the stores as they're supposed to... Still eating in crowded restaurants, etc. I'm just feeling increasingly appalled by the Swiss government's response to this.
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  #16387  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Make that +France !
Indeed.

It seems to be a bit too marked a difference for it to be coincidental that the worst affected cantons in Switzerland are the ones bordering France.( with Fribourg being the exception to that)
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  #16388  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Indeed.

It seems to be a bit too marked a difference for it to be coincidental that the worst affected cantons in Switzerland are the ones bordering France.( with Fribourg being the exception to that)
and Basel-stadt and Basel-land.
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  #16389  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:06
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Re: Coronavirus

What really really pi$$es me off is the way they love to talk like there is something extra special about Switzerland in this. Phrases like "Switzerland is therefore pursuing several vaccine candidates to see which would be most suitable for this country." or "More data and analyses are needed for these to be authorised in Switzerland". The only think special about Switzerland at the moment as far as Covid is concerned is just how badly we're doing - only Belgium are currently worse.

Honestly somethimes I think you need to sit these people in front of a world map just to help them get things in proportion. If the EU pass it (and I have more trust in their medical authorities anyway), it is fine for Switzerland as well.

The UK - who are otherwise very good at screwing things up - still hope to have some vaccine this year, at least to offer to healthcare workers (realistically I suspect January). The BAG are talking about mid 2021.
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  #16390  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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and Basel-stadt and Basel-land.
Last time I looked they also shared a border with France.
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  #16391  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not wearing masks outside the stores as they're supposed to
supposed to? where it has been said?
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  #16392  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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supposed to? where it has been said?
BAG/Bundesrat.

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Outside establishments and facilities, such as shops, venues, restaurants and bars, or at farmers’ and Christmas markets.
In busy pedestrian zones and wherever the required distance cannot be maintained in public spaces.
https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home...es-bundes.html

Last edited by baboon; 10.11.2020 at 16:25. Reason: Just realised it's also available in English!
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  #16393  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Excellent article and sums it up quite well, there is no doubt in my mind that we will be in a very bad situation come December:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/10...tm_name=iossmf

"But keeping businesses open and holding the purse strings tight may not only be bad health policy but also bad economics. As the fear of contagion starts to creep in, the Swiss are reducing their social life anyway, mobility data shows—leaving restaurants open but without clients. There is no trade-off between health and the economy, the Swiss are learning. Exploding case numbers have not prevented a steep rise in business insolvencies.

In this crisis, one may have to pause life and parts of the economy for a while in order to bounce back stronger and healthier later. In an open letter, 50 economics professors have pleaded with the Swiss government to finally introduce a soft lockdown. The government still dithers. "
This doesn't make much (heck ... any) sense to me. As acknowledged, the Swiss public appear to have sensibly embraced a voluntary "light-lockdown", and cases seem to have reasonably clearly peaked already.

So why do we need intervention which imposes what has already been taken up voluntarily?

There's a separate point about stimulus which deserves consideration - but I'm not sure I can see the rationale for a lockdown.
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  #16394  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:20
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Re: Coronavirus

missed the new sheriff in the town while was in Sweden
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Old 10.11.2020, 16:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Last time I looked they also shared a border with France.
Well thats my point! They have low numbers (comparatively)
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  #16396  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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This doesn't make much (heck ... any) sense to me. As acknowledged, the Swiss public appear to have sensibly embraced a voluntary "light-lockdown", and cases seem to have reasonably clearly peaked already.

So why do we need intervention which imposes what has already been taken up voluntarily?
Because it hasn't? Cases MAY have peaked but certainly are not going down in any serious way. And given just how high our case rate is, that simply isn't good enough.

Just had a look at testing - only some 16,000 tests registered yesterday compared to about 30,000 last Monday (checking to the BAG graph not the daily statement). Now I really do not believe the case number.
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Old 10.11.2020, 16:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks.

I read yesterday that Geneva has the highest rate of new infections in all of Europe. I don't know what the hell the Swiss gov't is waiting for, exactly. I live in the canton of Zurich, in a very high-risk area (according to the stats in the link that Roegner had posted), and yet people here are practically behaving as though there isn't even a pandemic. Not wearing masks outside the stores as they're supposed to... Still eating in crowded restaurants, etc. I'm just feeling increasingly appalled by the Swiss government's response to this.
Presumably to see if cases are dropping without the need for further intervention. Which they seem to be.
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Old 10.11.2020, 16:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because it hasn't? Cases MAY have peaked but certainly are not going down in any serious way. And given just how high our case rate is, that simply isn't good enough.
In the last 3 days the 7 day average has dropped by 10%. That's a decent start for a such a short time period. If that continues we will get to more normal numbers in a few weeks.

The only useful time for lockdown would be before the peak (I had sympathies at the time for a light touch lockdown). The horse has bolted. Why do it now when R is below 1?

If people start going out again, and R is rising - fair enough.
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Old 10.11.2020, 16:32
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Re: Coronavirus

2 weeks ago I had some flu symptoms.
Called up the ZH Ärtz-Hotline, and here's the gist of the call:
ME: I have some flu symptoms, slight fever, headache, some cough, and tiredness/weakness. Today is the 2nd day.
Hotline: Do you have difficulty breathing? ME: No
Hotline: How old are you? ME: 40
Hotline: Did you have contact with anyone Covid+? ME: I'm not sure
Hotline: Well, your symptoms are minor. Stay at home, wait until all symptoms are gone, and 2 days later you can go out.
ME: Do I need to go for a Covid test? Hotline: No need.
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Old 10.11.2020, 16:39
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Re: Coronavirus

This piece in the Telegraph says that in the UK the number of cases of Coronavirus was under control before the latest lockdown was imposed. Early days yet but this seems also to be the same case here in Switzerland. Unlike the UK though the Swiss haven't repeated the same mistake as in the spring by going into an unnecessary lockdown!


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The second wave peaked before lockdown began

A range of statistics suggest the number of cases was under control before Thursday's nation-wide shutdown

There is now little doubt that the second wave of the virus crested before the lockdown began on Thursday. On Friday the Government announced that the number of new positive tests over the previous seven days was 156,742, or 2,006 fewer than in the previous seven days: the first time this autumn the weekly number had not gone up.

The same day the Office for National Statistics published its estimate, based on sampling the population, that the number of cases per day was 45,700, slightly down on the previous week, saying “incidence appears to have stabilised at around 50,000 new infections per day”.

A third source confirms the peak: the ZOE survey of King’s College London, using the Covid Symptom Study app, which estimated 42,049 new daily cases compared with 43,569 a week before. ZOE’s Professor Tim Spector noted on Friday that “while these population changes will take a while to work through, we believe they are a positive sign that we have passed the peak of this second wave”. He estimates R to be 1 for the UK as a whole, as does Alastair Grant of the University of East Anglia.

The ONS finds that case numbers are falling in the North west (they have been falling in Liverpool for nearly three weeks), and flat or rising more slowly than before in the rest of the country. The areas with strict regional lockdowns before the national lockdown are doing best.

The highest percentage of positive tests is among 17-24 year olds, but this is now the group seeing the fastest fall. The disease is rarely dangerous in the young and long-term complications are also rare. The big worry has always been the spread of the virus from the young to the elderly. That clearly has happened to some extent but it is not speeding up. In those over 70 the infection rate is still rising, but more slowly than it was in early October.

So statistics confirm what anecdote suggests: a significant autumn epidemic caused by the return of children to school and students to university, especially in northern cities, now flattening. This contrasts with the first wave, where 20 per cent of infections happened in hospitals and 45 per cent of deaths in care homes.
The number of people admitted to hospital with Covid has also started to slow. The Prime Minister says that a still rising number of deaths justifies lockdown. But the number of new cases tends to be two weeks ahead of hospitalisations and four weeks ahead of deaths, meaning that the peak in deaths should come at about the time the lockdown is due to end in early December. It will be wrong to credit lockdown for a fall in deaths until mid December.

The Government’s dashboard says the latest daily death rate, averaged over seven days (and defined as deaths within 28 days of a positive test) is 355. This is bad, but lower than expected by the four models used last Saturday to alarm us into lockdown, especially the now notorious Cambridge University/Public Health England model, which expected around 1,000 deaths a day by now, on course for a peak of 4,000 deaths a day. That forecast had twice been updated, producing much lower numbers, a fact omitted from the Downing Street briefing.
The first wave of infections also peaked before lockdown began, resulting in a peak of deaths on April 8. Voluntary social distancing had already begun to take effect. Now it is probably the regional, tiered restrictions that made the difference, although it cannot be ruled out that the wave is just running out of steam. This would happen if the virus relatively quickly depletes the population of superspreaders, people who for social or biological reasons are more likely to catch and pass on the virus.

The Government’s “reasonable worst case scenario”, still unpublished, seems to have bizarrely assumed no increase in cases until mid November, so it’s no wonder we are worse off than that. Like most respiratory viruses, Covid likes colder weather and prefers to spread indoors: it broke out in chilly abattoirs during the summer. An autumn second wave was probably inevitable, especially given the start of school and university terms. Locking down young people in March may have made it worse by ensuring there was a bigger population of susceptibles.

In 1889-90 a new respiratory virus with similar symptoms to Covid killed a million people, mainly the elderly and disproportionately men, as it spread around the world from Russia. Genetic evidence suggests it may have been a coronavirus, the one now known as OC43.

It too faded in summer but came back for a second wave in the autumn. It then largely ceased killing people, but it never went away: it is still with us as one of the causes of the common cold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ockdown-began/
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