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  #16401  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:43
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In the last 3 days the 7 day average has dropped by 10%. That's a decent start for a such a short time period. If that continues we will get to more normal numbers in a few weeks.

The only useful time for lockdown would be before the peak (I had sympathies at the time for a light touch lockdown). The horse has bolted. Why do it now when R is below 1?

If people start going out again, and R is rising - fair enough.
Because in all honesty I don't believe the R is less than 1. If you suddenly test only half the numbers you did before it's not surprising you get less positives. This is the Trump school of pandemic management.
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  #16402  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because in all honesty I don't believe the R is less than 1. If you suddenly test only half the numbers you did before it's not surprising you get less positives. This is the Trump school of pandemic management.
But then positivity should rise - and its not been.

Of course - the proof in the pudding should be coming with deaths in a fortnight.
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  #16403  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:49
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But then positivity should rise - and its not been.

Of course - the proof in the pudding should be coming with deaths in a fortnight.
Agreed but more in 3 to 4 weeks.

But it's easy to see why positivity might not rise. The reduced testing is to restrict to risk groups, not according to symptoms.
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  #16404  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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2 weeks ago I had some flu symptoms.
Called up the ZH Ärtz-Hotline, and here's the gist of the call:
ME: I have some flu symptoms, slight fever, headache, some cough, and tiredness/weakness. Today is the 2nd day.
Hotline: Do you have difficulty breathing? ME: No
Hotline: How old are you? ME: 40
Hotline: Did you have contact with anyone Covid+? ME: I'm not sure
Hotline: Well, your symptoms are minor. Stay at home, wait until all symptoms are gone, and 2 days later you can go out.
ME: Do I need to go for a Covid test? Hotline: No need.
That's messed up.

If someone needs a test, maybe it's better to go directly to their family doctor. I was tested last July and that's where I went for my test (my family doctor). It would be interesting to know how I'd be treated by her office this time if I needed / wanted to be tested again. I suspect that the testing centers are busier than most family doctors offices (but no idea).
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  #16405  
Old 10.11.2020, 16:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well thats my point! They have low numbers (comparatively)
Oh yes, when I glanced at tte map I thought Basel was the red bit at the top of the border but it’s actually Jura.


But my point was that all of the cantons badly affected, with the exception of Fribourg, border France.
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  #16406  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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But then positivity should rise - and its not been.

Of course - the proof in the pudding should be coming with deaths in a fortnight.
Just thought the same, but is this really so? You say cases came down at same positivity, but less tests. Then in that logic, were I to double the testing, wouldn't I get double the cases and consequentially a higher R?

My uneducated feeling is that at positivity rates of 25%, you don't really see much and R is extremely difficult to measure.
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  #16407  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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In the last 3 days the 7 day average has dropped by 10%. That's a decent start for a such a short time period. If that continues we will get to more normal numbers in a few weeks.
I would assume that a drop in new infections now is due to the new restrictions that were announced on October 28th, which was almost exactly 2 weeks ago. I can therefore just imagine how much more those numbers would come down if even more restrictions were announced, and especially for the canton of Zurich, which is pretty heavily hit... let alone all across Switzerland.

Geneva still has the highest number of new infections in all of Europe. So it's not like we should really relax in terms of how bad the situation is.
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  #16408  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just thought the same, but is this really so? You say cases came down at same positivity, but less tests. Then in that logic, were I to double the testing, wouldn't I get double the cases and consequentially a higher R?

My uneducated feeling is that at positivity rates of 25%, you don't really see much and R is extremely difficult to measure.
I think its not as bad as all that - but you could just track hospitalisations. Which appear to be somewhat improving.
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  #16409  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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I would assume that a drop in new infections now is due to the new restrictions that were announced on October 28th, which was almost exactly 2 weeks ago. I can therefore just imagine how much more those numbers would come down if even more restrictions were announced, and especially for the canton of Zurich, which is pretty heavily hit... let alone all across Switzerland.

Geneva still has the highest number of new infections in all of Europe. So it's not like we should really relax in terms of how bad the situation is.
Turning the sign from blue to red (or was it orange to red)? Were there actually any real measures?

I think its mostly about people not wanting to be infected, noticing the high levels and acting on it.

Agree - its serious and there needs to be readiness for action at the first sign of an uptick. There would also be logic for restrictions exclusively for the French speaking bit.
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  #16410  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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2 weeks ago I had some flu symptoms.
Called up the ZH Ärtz-Hotline, and here's the gist of the call:
ME: I have some flu symptoms, slight fever, headache, some cough, and tiredness/weakness. Today is the 2nd day.
Hotline: Do you have difficulty breathing? ME: No
Hotline: How old are you? ME: 40
Hotline: Did you have contact with anyone Covid+? ME: I'm not sure
Hotline: Well, your symptoms are minor. Stay at home, wait until all symptoms are gone, and 2 days later you can go out.
ME: Do I need to go for a Covid test? Hotline: No need.
If test capacity is getting tight, I think this is a sensible approach. Two weeks ago, testing was buzzing. Not clear why tests are way down now.
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  #16411  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:12
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Re: Coronavirus

Geneva: Coronavirus-positive health workers asked to go back to work
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  #16412  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think its not as bad as all that - but you could just track hospitalisations. Which appear to be somewhat improving.
Of course, I am not disputing that we seem to get into calmer waters.
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  #16413  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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2 weeks ago I had some flu symptoms.
Called up the ZH Ärtz-Hotline, and here's the gist of the call:
ME: I have some flu symptoms, slight fever, headache, some cough, and tiredness/weakness. Today is the 2nd day.
Hotline: Do you have difficulty breathing? ME: No
Hotline: How old are you? ME: 40
Hotline: Did you have contact with anyone Covid+? ME: I'm not sure
Hotline: Well, your symptoms are minor. Stay at home, wait until all symptoms are gone, and 2 days later you can go out.
ME: Do I need to go for a Covid test? Hotline: No need.
Yes, exactly. We experienced the same thing at home when we were sick recently. All the above as well and told to stay home or to wait 4 days for an appointment. I have a few other friends in the same situation and have read of other cases on other forums like Reddit.

I really try not to throw out conspiracy theories - but I wonder if this was all part of their efforts to get the numbers down... Conversation around work is "Have you seen the reduced number of cases? things are getting better." My answer has been "have you seen the greatly reduced number of tests?"

Feels like Switzerland has gone the way of Trump...there's only high numbers because of high tests... let's just put our heads in the sand and it will all go away... I'm very frustrated and expected much better of Switzerland.
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  #16414  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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The only useful time for lockdown would be before the peak
An exponential curve does not peak (at least until there's no more population to infect).

The peak we're seeing is because of the measures imposed.
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  #16415  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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This piece in the Telegraph says that in the UK the number of cases of Coronavirus was under control before the latest lockdown was imposed. Early days yet but this seems also to be the same case here in Switzerland. Unlike the UK though the Swiss haven't repeated the same mistake as in the spring by going into an unnecessary lockdown!





]
The lockdown was because of the peak. Should have done it sooner and extended half term.

That article is just noise.
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  #16416  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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An exponential curve does not peak (at least until there's no more population to infect).

The peak we're seeing is because of the measures imposed.
Too simplistic methinks. You are correct only if people make absolutely no adjustment to their behaviour of their own accord following a change in situation (increasing cases). I don't think that's a reasonable assumption. Especially since there hasn't really been any significant measures imposed and the curve is now way off the exponential. I for one am "locked down" of my own accord.

I'm not saying that a (light) lockdown won't be necessary this winter - it may well be. But I don't think its the time. We will see something of a decline and then it might start to uptick again - that'll be the time. As would about a month ago. There is only so much lockdown the public will handle before adherence starts to drop. It should be used at the most opportune moment.

There's a case for doing in the French speaking half to get cases down more quickly than they are atm, but I personally wouldn't lockdown the German side now.
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  #16417  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, exactly. We experienced the same thing at home when we were sick recently. All the above as well and told to stay home or to wait 4 days for an appointment. I have a few other friends in the same situation and have read of other cases on other forums like Reddit.

I really try not to throw out conspiracy theories - but I wonder if this was all part of their efforts to get the numbers down... Conversation around work is "Have you seen the reduced number of cases? things are getting better." My answer has been "have you seen the greatly reduced number of tests?"

Feels like Switzerland has gone the way of Trump...there's only high numbers because of high tests... let's just put our heads in the sand and it will all go away... I'm very frustrated and expected much better of Switzerland.
Not saying the grass is greener anywhere else, but I did expect better as well.
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  #16418  
Old 10.11.2020, 17:39
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That's messed up.

If someone needs a test, maybe it's better to go directly to their family doctor. I was tested last July and that's where I went for my test (my family doctor). It would be interesting to know how I'd be treated by her office this time if I needed / wanted to be tested again. I suspect that the testing centers are busier than most family doctors offices (but no idea).
There's the other issue .. I was at my doctor today.. Big sign on the door, don't come in if you have any symptoms .. We are not testing.. etc.

Asked the doc about it and she said they were over-run.. Surrounded by covid everyday, they had to stop.. Advised to head to the hospital now.

Do we want our doctor offices to be covid centers.. ?
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Old 10.11.2020, 17:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's the other issue .. I was at my doctor today.. Big sign on the door, don't come in if you have any symptoms .. We are not testing.. etc.

Asked the doc about it and she said they were over-run.. Surrounded by covid everyday, they had to stop.. Advised to head to the hospital now.

Do we want our doctor offices to be covid centers.. ?
No, because getting appointments for non corona related ailments is already difficult
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  #16420  
Old 10.11.2020, 18:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's the other issue .. I was at my doctor today.. Big sign on the door, don't come in if you have any symptoms .. We are not testing.. etc.

Asked the doc about it and she said they were over-run.. Surrounded by covid everyday, they had to stop.. Advised to head to the hospital now.

Do we want our doctor offices to be covid centers.. ?
Valid point. I actually have an appt. at my doctor's office on Friday, for a flu shot, and I admit -- I'm not looking forward to going in there. I felt the same when I had to take my son to get his vitamin D checked last week.
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