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  #16481  
Old 12.11.2020, 12:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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10,198 a week ago today. Almost certainly past the peak now, and all without a lockdown.
I agree - but the risk is that people relax now and another rise begins. Although a lockdown is clearly not the right path atm, we have to remain vigilant for a turn around in cases.

Positivity seems to be staying around 25-30%. It'd be nice to see that begin to fall.
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  #16482  
Old 12.11.2020, 12:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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10,198 a week ago today. Almost certainly past the peak now, and all without a lockdown.
...but still one of the highest current infection rates in the world. and a rapidly increasing death toll coupled with overloaded health care personnel that could have been prevented by decisive earlier action.
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  #16483  
Old 12.11.2020, 12:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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10,198 a week ago today. Almost certainly past the peak now, and all without a lockdown.
Depends on where you are and how you define lockdown. Gva has lockdown. Most in the French speaking part have partial lockdown. Main difference is mandatory schooling open for in person classes. Certain commerces are open/closed depending on canton.
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  #16484  
Old 12.11.2020, 13:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Alcohol in Systembolaget much cheaper
Still much more than here, CHF 20 for a bottle of wine that I can buy here for CHF 5.

Tom
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  #16485  
Old 12.11.2020, 13:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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...but still one of the highest current infection rates in the world.
And as we know, infection rates on their own mean little. Stop spinning the same alarmist record, it's overused and untrue, move on.
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  #16486  
Old 12.11.2020, 13:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Still much more than here, CHF 20 for a bottle of wine that I can buy here for CHF 5.

Tom
probably CHF 5 with discount
in Sweden there is no discount on alcohol. ever
however, my favorite Chateauneuf-du-Pape Mont-Redon 2015 costs ~ 28 CHF in Sweden and 34 CHF in CH and its 2016 in CH
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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10,198 a week ago today. Almost certainly past the peak now, and all without a lockdown.

There's a lockdown where it matters: Genève, Valais, Jura.



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Faced with the worsening Covid-19 situation, canton Geneva will enter a state of semi-confinement from 7pm on Monday. Bars, restaurants and non-essential shops will be closed; schools will remain open.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/geneva-...kdown/46134304
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  #16488  
Old 12.11.2020, 13:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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And as we know, infection rates on their own mean little. Stop spinning the same alarmist record, it's overused and untrue, move on.
Why did you cut off the rest of the quote that talks about death toll? You talk about the infection rates meaning little on their own then left out the bit were they talk about death toll...which I imagine adds the context you were looking for.

edit: edit added after quoted
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  #16489  
Old 12.11.2020, 13:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why did you cut off the rest of the quote that talks about death toll?
Because it's not true either. The most recent data for excess deaths in CH that I managed to find is around 2%. Btw, did you all notice how excess deaths seems to be no longer even communicated? Makes one wonder why?
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  #16490  
Old 12.11.2020, 13:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because it's not true either. The most recent data for excess deaths in CH is around 2%. Btw, did you all notice how excess deaths seems to be no longer even communicated? Makes one wonder why?
So leave it in the quote and talk about how that isn't true either with data to back it up
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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So leave it in the quote and talk about how that isn't true either with data to back it up
No, I wanted to distinguish between a quantitative statement (infection rate) and the purely subjective qualitative comments ("rapidly increasing death toll coupled with overloaded health care personnel") which could be true in ones mind depending on mindset as they are subjective.
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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  #16493  
Old 12.11.2020, 13:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is insightful, thanks! So, no excess deaths <65 years and an increase from 1200 to 1500 for the >65 years. This is pretty steep as it suggest a 25% increase in excess deaths for that age group.

Which all gives further credence to the oft-repeated statement: let the <65 roam, work, live normally and ask the >65 to stay at home. Simples.
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because it's not true either. The most recent data for excess deaths in CH that I managed to find is around 2%. Btw, did you all notice how excess deaths seems to be no longer even communicated? Makes one wonder why?
Didn't look very hard, did you. Easily available, I even posted it in this thread a couple of days ago. BTW this is calculated 2 weeks in arrears so ghe big jumps over the last 2 weeks aren't even included yet.

In any event, deaths are no good as a planning tool as there is a 4 to 5 week lag after infection. You HAVE to use infections and try to work out the R from that.
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, I wanted to distinguish between a quantitative statement (infection rate) and the purely subjective qualitative comments ("rapidly increasing death toll coupled with overloaded health care personnel") which could be true in ones mind depending on mindset as they are subjective.
How is talking about an increasing death toll (1 to over 60 per day in about a month) purely subjective? Would you prefer one talk about the death rate instead?
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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You HAVE to use infections and try to work out the R from that.
Well, they are declining, so you're making another wrong point. Not your day is it?
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well, they are declining, so you're making another wrong point. Not your day is it?
It's too early to draw conclusions. The r-rate is still too high. The government needs to take more measures.

It's not over yet.
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Old 12.11.2020, 13:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's too early to draw conclusions. The r-rate is still too high. The government needs to take more measures.

It's not over yet.
Of course it's not over yet, nobody said that. But the current measures seem to be working quite well, so no need for alarmism and panic, this was my point.
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Old 12.11.2020, 14:09
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Which all gives further credence to the oft-repeated statement: let the <65 roam, work, live normally and ask the >65 to stay at home. Simples.
Which conveniently ignores the fact that that approach doesn't work. Sweden tried and failed miserably.

Also ignores the issue of long covid which very definitely is a problem for under 65s.
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Old 12.11.2020, 14:20
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Of course it's not over yet, nobody said that. But the current measures seem to be working quite well, so no need for alarmism and panic, this was my point.
You've been trying very hard to hint just that. But ignore the truth that with an R still close to 1 the infections and thus increased deaths remain far too high.

The improvements in the infection rate come most strongly from cantons that introduced heavier lockdown measures btw.

Edit..from the BAG presser right now:

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Wegen der zeitlichen Verzögerung und der Dunkelziffer könnte es sich bei den Fallzahlen aber um eine Untertreibung der tatsächlichen Situation handeln
...acknowledging a probable underestimate.

Edit 2, R estimated at 0.86, still above target of below 0.80
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