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  #16681  
Old 17.11.2020, 15:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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There is a lag between infections, hospitalizations and deaths. So when restrictions are imposed, the infection curve is the first to peak and go down, followed by the hospitalizations curve, then the deaths curve.

Indeed, last time on April there was a 2-3 week delay between peak cases and peak deaths.
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  #16682  
Old 17.11.2020, 15:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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If they are made here, can Switzerland pull a German maneuver and declare them as vital goods that can't be exported?
Much better, it will make up for all the times, Nationalbank had to devaluate the Swiss Frank.
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  #16683  
Old 17.11.2020, 15:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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This article makes me so sad ... Covidiots denying and expressing anger until the very end:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1724026.html
News report based on the comments of a single person.

Great headline though!
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  #16684  
Old 17.11.2020, 15:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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There is a lag between infections, hospitalizations and deaths. So when restrictions are imposed, the infection curve is the first to peak and go down, followed by the hospitalizations curve, then the deaths curve.
Yes, I understand that.

The point is that for hospitals to function, the hospitalization curve needs to come down quite quick. Even if we are at "only" 4000 cases per day, they will continue to result in new hospitalizations, and spare capacity is very limited. This is why a slow reduction in incremental hospitalizations is not enough as in absolute terms the pressure is building up.
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Old 17.11.2020, 15:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Much better, it will make up for all the times, Nationalbank had to devaluate the Swiss Frank.
CHF was only devalued once, in 1936.
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  #16686  
Old 17.11.2020, 15:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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CHF was only devalued once, in 1936.
What about all the printing to keep the CHF below 1.20 to the euro?
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  #16687  
Old 17.11.2020, 15:46
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Re: Coronavirus

Speaking of hospitalizations, some (tentative) good news from Geneva. Hospitalizations may have peaked there: at noon today there were 606 Covid patients at the Geneva University Hospital and clinics in Geneva (down from 642 yesterday). Still a very high number.



Source: https://www.hug.ch/coronavirus-malad...uation-aux-hug
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Old 17.11.2020, 16:58
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Re: Coronavirus

The death figures for the week to 8 November have just been released. 1,702 deaths, 566 (50%) more than expected and the worst week in the 10 years of weekly records. The 15 November figures are going to be even worse when they are released in a week or so.

https://interaktiv.tagesanzeiger.ch/...n-coronavirus/ (requires registration...I guess it can be seen elsewhere)

According to SF, the number of Covid hospitalisations is unchanged over the week (judging from the caveat the BAG include with this number it seems they have trouble getting the data within a decent time so recent numbers appear to be very unreliable). As mentioned before, there are still intensive beds available - but only beacuse the number of non-covid intensive patients has deceased dramatically - from a normal 650 or so to a current 320-odd.

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/coro...n-wegen-corona
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Last edited by baboon; 17.11.2020 at 17:47.
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  #16689  
Old 17.11.2020, 17:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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The death figures for the week to 8 November have just been released. 1,702 deaths, 566 (50%) more than expected and the worst week in the 10 years of weekly records.
Are you trying to say that only the week to the 8th of Nov had 1702 deaths? This is impossible. Switzerland never had a day of over 200 deaths, a whole week of sustained >200 is something we never had
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  #16690  
Old 17.11.2020, 17:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you trying to say that only the week to the 8th of Nov had 1702 deaths? This is impossible. Switzerland never had a day of over 200 deaths, a whole week of sustained >200 is something we never had
That is total deaths, I guess. If normal is around 1200, that is an additional 70 per day. Seems consistent with the reported Covid deaths, approximately.
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  #16691  
Old 17.11.2020, 17:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you trying to say that only the week to the 8th of Nov had 1702 deaths? This is impossible. Switzerland never had a day of over 200 deaths, a whole week of sustained >200 is something we never had
I believe that is the total number of deaths for the week not just COVID related deaths. I imagine the extra 566 could be attributed to COVID which would probably fit with the numbers announced at that time.
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  #16692  
Old 17.11.2020, 17:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you trying to say that only the week to the 8th of Nov had 1702 deaths? This is impossible. Switzerland never had a day of over 200 deaths, a whole week of sustained >200 is something we never had
That's exactly what the link says - in fact that is over 65s only, under 65s are not included in that. I'd have thought the context would make it clear that was all deaths.

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In der Woche vom 2. bis 8. November zeigten sich in der Gruppe der Personen ab 65 Jahren erneut Todesfallzahlen deutlich über dem langjährigen Erwartungswert. Das Bundesamt für Statistik (BFS) prognostiziert im Normalfall 1136 Todesfälle für diese Zeit. Es waren nun aber 1702 Todesfälle, 566 mehr (+50%) als erwartet worden waren.
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  #16693  
Old 17.11.2020, 18:35
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Re: Coronavirus

Obesity is a huge problem https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...P4iEkfEnjch5UI
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  #16694  
Old 17.11.2020, 18:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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1 week ago - 5980
2 weeks ago - 6126

Clear now that the peak is definitely behind us. One does wonder if this would even be the case without any measures being implemented. For example Flu pandemics mostly have a similar shaped curve. Viruses just seem to do their thing
This is a good question... im looking at curves from different EU countries. They all peaked more or less at the same time. Yet, they have different covid policy. My country of birth had the same numbers as CH in September but soon imposed draconian measures:

-Masks outside (mid of October)
-Locked in Gemeinde (average size: less than 100 km2), except work (1 month)
-Bars & Restaurants closed (mid October)
-Kindergartens & Schools closed (mid October)
-Curfew (21h-5h) (mid October)

After all of this craziness, the covid numbers are today pretty much the same as in CH.
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  #16695  
Old 17.11.2020, 19:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is a good question... im looking at curves from different EU countries. They all peaked more or less at the same time. Yet, they have different covid policy. My country of birth had the same numbers as CH in September but soon imposed draconian measures:

-Masks outside (mid of October)
-Locked in Gemeinde (average size: less than 100 km2), except work (1 month)
-Bars & Restaurants closed (mid October)
-Kindergartens & Schools closed (mid October)
-Curfew (21h-5h) (mid October)

After all of this craziness, the covid numbers are today pretty much the same as in CH.
For all TonyClifton's faults - he has kinda been shown to be right about the pointlessness of lockdown - or more precisely, the pointlessness of lockdown when the cases are already sky high and people are taking evasive action of their own accord.

In my view, increased restrictions need to be early to have a significant effect. Granted lockdown now could plausibly get R down from 0.8 to say 0.6 - but is that a good use of scarce resources (cost, probably reducing compliance of society with future lockdowns)?
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  #16696  
Old 17.11.2020, 19:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Increased restrictions need to be early to have an affect.
This. Yet you do them early and you risk that mostly people will not be on board. I can see 2 wks preventative shutdowns in the future.

eta - I see you edited a tad, well - same thing. I agree that measures need to be super early. Worked for CZ the 1st time around. But to miss the timing is really easy, for all sorts of reasons.

You may be right that the 2nd wave bit the CZ hard because they were so disciplined the 1st time.

Last edited by MusicChick; 17.11.2020 at 19:58.
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  #16697  
Old 17.11.2020, 20:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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What about all the printing to keep the CHF below 1.20 to the euro?
I think you mean above.
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  #16698  
Old 17.11.2020, 20:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Obesity is a huge problem
Made me laugh.
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  #16699  
Old 17.11.2020, 20:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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For all TonyClifton's faults - he has kinda been shown to be right about the pointlessness of lockdown - or more precisely, the pointlessness of lockdown when the cases are already sky high and people are taking evasive action of their own accord.

In my view, increased restrictions need to be early to have a significant effect. Granted lockdown now could plausibly get R down from 0.8 to say 0.6 - but is that a good use of scarce resources (cost, probably reducing compliance of society with future lockdowns)?
How so? It functioned for CZ as per MC.
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  #16700  
Old 17.11.2020, 20:47
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Re: Coronavirus

Scientists claim that corona virus was around in Italy from September 2019 onwards.

Source
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