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  #16701  
Old 17.11.2020, 21:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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How so? It functioned for CZ as per MC.
It's 7 day average is falling a bit quicker than CH but nothing drastic. As I said, something like 0.8 vs 0.6.

Whereas if you put those measures into place when R is 1.3 or 1.5I think you'd see much more of a difference. I think here if the decrease starts to slow or trough (with cases remaining significant) then that's the time for a bit of intervention.
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  #16702  
Old 17.11.2020, 21:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's 7 day average is falling a bit quicker than CH but nothing drastic. As I said, something like 0.8 vs 0.6.

Whereas if you put those measures into place when R is 1.3 or 1.5I think you'd see much more of a difference. I think here if the decrease starts to slow or trough (with cases remaining significant) then that's the time for a bit of intervention.
R 0.8 vs 0.6 would actually mean the rise/drop is twice as fast.

How R influences time to double/halve:



https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status...67433142558725
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Old 17.11.2020, 22:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Scientists claim that corona virus was around in Italy from September 2019 onwards.

Source
Somehow that doesn't really surprise me. I had a feeling that it was probably already in other parts of the world prior to the outbreak in Wuhan. They just weren't testing for it specifically back then. I just read that the test for COVID-19 wasn't even developed until last January.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
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Old 18.11.2020, 03:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Somehow that doesn't really surprise me. I had a feeling that it was probably already in other parts of the world prior to the outbreak in Wuhan. They just weren't testing for it specifically back then. I just read that the test for COVID-19 wasn't even developed until last January.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
this is extremely unlikely. the kind of endemic prevalence that this result suggests would be easily visible elsewhere.

a much more likely explanation is almost certainly the true cause of this result. it could be many things, but one possibility is that the inaccurate serologic testing they used is positive to one of the viruses that are cross-reactive with the covid-19 test, as been demonstrated elsewhere.
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  #16705  
Old 18.11.2020, 04:38
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Re: Coronavirus

The owner of https://corona-data.ch/ has re-worked his site and lost some of the clear graphs by canton, which I think is a pity.

The "Excess Mortality Data", on the other hand, (scroll down), is very well set out.
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Old 18.11.2020, 09:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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The owner of https://corona-data.ch/ has re-worked his site and lost some of the clear graphs by canton, which I think is a pity.

The "Excess Mortality Data", on the other hand, (scroll down), is very well set out.
I don’t like it at all now, I can’t even log on from my tablet anymore.
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Old 18.11.2020, 09:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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The owner of https://corona-data.ch/ has re-worked his site and lost some of the clear graphs by canton, which I think is a pity.

The "Excess Mortality Data", on the other hand, (scroll down), is very well set out.
Sweden is below it's excess mortality since August until now and Switzerland is essentially flattish since the same time with a few ups and downs, but on average for the period it looks mainly flat. All good signs!
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Old 18.11.2020, 09:58
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Re: Coronavirus

Soon we won't have to keep on referring back to Sweden as Switzerland has now taken up the torch!

Interesting piece from yesterday's Telegraph on the Swiss approach, one thing they fail to mention though is that numbers are now FALLING. Makes one proud to call Switzerland home!!!

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Switzerland dubbed 'the new Sweden' as government resists lockdown despite soaring caseload

For many in the country, life continues more or less as normal as the government seeks to prioritise the economy

Business is brisk in the shops of the Alpine town of Davos.

Apart from the ubiquitous sight of masks - available crystal-encrusted in this luxury Swiss ski resort – there are almost no signs of a global pandemic.

In Vögele Shoes store, biotech executive Aled Williams, 50, is busy buying his daughter a pair of snow boots.
“Everyone is very respectful here,” he said. “Distances are maintained, hand sanitizers are everywhere and businesses are open. It’s a great vibe.”

This landlocked country is home to the five European regions hit hardest by the coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization, but Switzerland has chosen not to implement a second national lockdown, so for many, life goes on more or less as normal.

Switzerland’s light-touch approach has been likened to that of Sweden, which refused to enter lockdown earlier this year alongside most other European nations and became one of the worst-affected areas in Europe.
Swiss officials reject the comparison, pointing out that they did have a lockdown in spring. Switzerland was among the first countries to reopen bars and restaurants, however.
Mr Williams, who lives in Zug and works in Basel, said he dined with his family in Totalp, a restaurant on the edge of a ski piste, on the weekend.
“It was busy but they managed it very professionally,” he said. “The tables are separated by screens. Diners log in to an app and register before being served. It works like clockwork, as you would expect in Switzerland.”

“We need to look at the collateral damage to the economy and keep business open and shield the vulnerable,” he added.
“Switzerland is unique in many ways and a nationwide lockdown is not the solution.”

His view is a popular one, despite stricter measures being urged by the head of the Swiss National Covid-19 Science Task Force.

Martin Ackermann has recommended closing bars and restaurants, limiting interactions to two households, and enforcing home office and distance learning.

He said the country would soon run out of intensive care beds based on current infection rates.

Switzerland is experiencing a major spike in infections, with more than 30,000 cases in the last seven days and almost 500 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

Finance minister Ueli Maurer has warned a second lockdown would be “disastrous”, however.
Last week he accused the taskforce of “short-sightedness and moralising”, branding its scientists as “know-it-alls”.
“We have to live, we have to be able to earn money, to be able to shop,” he said. The government’s message remains clear – business is king.
Instead it is urging “self-responsibility” and that people follow the existing rules.
Currently, masks are compulsory outdoors and in public indoor spaces, hospitality venues must close at 11pm, a maximum of 10 people can gather indoors, and no more than four people can share a table in a restaurant unless they live together.

Many of the 26 cantons have been happy to stick with these minimum requirements. Others have added a few clauses.
Lucerne, for example, has closed sex shops, Obwalden has capped public events to 30 people and Solothurn has closed shisha bars.
The French-speaking canton of Geneva is the only one to have closed all non-essential businesses until November 29, however. With more than 2,400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the past 14 days, Geneva is the worst hit region in Europe, followed by Fribourg, Vaud, Neuchâtel and Valais – all in Switzerland.

The high infection rate is likely in part due to the city’s density. Almost 30,000 people live in one square kilometre in the heart of Geneva, more than the average density in Manhattan, New York.
The canton also borders the worst hit part of France, Haute-Savoie, and is home to a large number of international organisations, including the World Health Organization
“Geneva is a very international environment meaning employees travel extensively which is certainly a factor,” said Sophie Balmat, 48, a nurse who commutes daily for work in Geneva but lives in Chamonix, France.
Genevan retailers, however, are unhappy about the restrictions, which has seen neighbouring cantons enjoy a rise in shoppers.

“We are fighting to reopen shops in Geneva,” said Sophie Dubuis, president of the Federation of Retailers in Geneva. “It’s a great injustice.”
“The clusters of infection are not coming from shoppers. Genevan shops adhere to a strict protocol and it makes no sense to board them up.”
As the numbers continue to spiral, the divisions in Switzerland are growing deeper. Socialist MP Flavia Wasserfallen said: “We will not get any further in this crisis if we point fingers at each other. We cannot drive a wedge between science and politics.

“A functioning economy is only possible with healthy people.”
In an open letter to the government earlier this month, 70 prominent economists urged the introduction of stricter measures. “Switzerland now needs a second lockdown with strong fiscal support,” it said.
“Even in purely economic terms, the overall cost will be smaller than with the current lighter measures that evidently failed to contain the virus’ spread.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...kdown-despite/
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  #16709  
Old 18.11.2020, 10:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Soon we won't have to keep on referring back to Sweden as Switzerland has now taken up the torch!

Interesting piece from yesterday's Telegraph on the Swiss approach, one thing they fail to mention though is that numbers are now FALLING. Makes one proud to call Switzerland home!!!
From your link "Geneva is the worst hit region in Europe, followed by Fribourg, Vaud, Neuchâtel and Valais – all in Switzerland."

Indeed Switzerland, like Sweden, is badly hit.
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  #16710  
Old 18.11.2020, 10:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting piece from yesterday's Telegraph on the Swiss approach, one thing they fail to mention though is that numbers are now FALLING.
Of course they fail to mention that, it doesn't fit their agenda
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  #16711  
Old 18.11.2020, 10:26
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting article on how even mild cases of COVID-19 affect healthy people combined with exercise post illness:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/w...gtype=Homepage

Be safe everyone!
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  #16712  
Old 18.11.2020, 10:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sweden is below it's excess mortality since August until now and Switzerland is essentially flattish since the same time with a few ups and downs, but on average for the period it looks mainly flat. All good signs!
It may be a nerdy observation, but the graph for CH stops on Oct 18.
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Old 18.11.2020, 10:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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It may be a nerdy observation, but the graph for CH stops on Oct 18.
...but given that the massinve increase here only came 2 weeks later quite an important nerdy observation.
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Old 18.11.2020, 10:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Indeed Switzerland, like Sweden, is badly hit.
you comparing number of deaths, right?
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Old 18.11.2020, 10:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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It may be a nerdy observation, but the graph for CH stops on Oct 18.
Better to hide the bad news.

Seven day average for deaths per million for the last seven days up to 17 Nov shows Switzerland higher than Italy, France, and the UK.

As TC posted "Switzerland has now taken up the torch! "
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Old 18.11.2020, 10:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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It may be a nerdy observation, but the graph for CH stops on Oct 18.
Oct. 25th seems to be the end of the data set. This is why I merely said "good signs", not something dramatic and prophetic (eg. baboon style)
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Old 18.11.2020, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Soon we won't have to keep on referring back to Sweden as Switzerland has now taken up the torch!
world's renegades team now doubled! hooooray!
btw
Musk was not in mask, so he catchup covid in Sweden. Shame on you, Sweden!
https://www.gp.se/ekonomi/elon-musk-...HLsg1ReqN5oyuw

Last edited by vladest; 18.11.2020 at 11:27.
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  #16718  
Old 18.11.2020, 11:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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world's renegades team now doubled! hooooray!
btw
Musk was not in mask, so he catchup covid in Sweden. Shame on you, Sweden!
https://www.gp.se/ekonomi/elon-musk-...HLsg1ReqN5oyuw

Well, the guy praised Sweden's strategy. So, kinda fun he caught the virus there.
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Old 18.11.2020, 11:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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this is extremely unlikely. the kind of endemic prevalence that this result suggests would be easily visible elsewhere.

a much more likely explanation is almost certainly the true cause of this result. it could be many things, but one possibility is that the inaccurate serologic testing they used is positive to one of the viruses that are cross-reactive with the covid-19 test, as been demonstrated elsewhere.
Well, apparently, there was at least one known case of COVID-19 in France last December:

Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

"This means the virus may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought."

According to the article, they know this due to a swab that was taken at the time (last December) later being tested for COVID and testing positive. I think it's therefore pretty safe to assume that there were also more cases of the virus here in Europe back then but that were never confirmed because swabs were never taken and then later tested.
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Old 18.11.2020, 12:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting article on how even mild cases of COVID-19 affect healthy people combined with exercise post illness:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/w...gtype=Homepage

Be safe everyone!
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