Coronavirus - Page 865

komsomolez · #**17281** 29.11.2020, 20:30

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	AstraZeneca vaccine had only 131 positives in the unvaccinated group and 30 positives in the vaccines group. Im guessing the number of positives in the half-Dose sample was so low that it's of very Limited significance.

Really? Whoa. Is there a proper study out?

HickvonFrick · #**17282** 29.11.2020, 20:53

	Quote:	komsomolez
	Really? Whoa. Is there a proper study out?

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-ce...zd1222hlr.html Also see https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconv...erature-150697

There were nearly four times as many participants in the "full dose" (8895) as in the "half dose" (2741). That's a total of 11,636 who received the vaccine.

Of those 11,636 only 30 tested positive.

Thus, were the two dosage regimens equally effective you'd have expected about 6 positives in the half-Dose group. But we got only 1/3 of the expected amount (90% vs 70% average). Thus, I think there were only 2 positives in the half dose group (of the 2741).

2 vs 6 - if my maths are right.

That's hardly hugely significant. If a single additional person tested positive it'd change the reported effectiveness by 5% of this dose. I don't think any assumptions can be made about the relative effects of the dosage regimens without a bigger study.

Tbh I also want to know more details about the Location of the half-Dose participants vs the full dose ones. Obviously if they were in a less risky country that could explain the differences. I understand this was an "accidental" sub-sample. As such, I assume location of the participants wasn't set to be equal. Timing of when the dose was received also could make a difference.

I honestly think they should be expecting serious questions by the authorities if they want to make something of this dosage regimen.

spalebärg · #**17283** 29.11.2020, 22:43

	Quote:	rainer_d
	... politicians just need to believe that it works.

Let them take the jab first.

TonyClifton · #**17284** 30.11.2020, 08:51

A couple of international reports on the Swiss response to the second wave, first in the Telegraph:

	Quote:
	Switzerland Switzerland has gone its own way in a number of ways in regards to the pandemic; most recently refusing to enter a second national lockdown. It did implement one in spring, but was also one of the first countries in Europe to lift it. Switzerland’s strategy was to intervene early with generous support for the economy in hopes of cushioning the blow that was to come. Alongside Germany, it was one of the first countries to introduce a short-time working scheme to protect jobs, with 30 per cent of Swiss workers having their wages propped up by the state. Additionally, the landlocked country’s pledge to fully underwrite bank loans to smaller firms provided crucial funding and was eventually copied by UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Then, in April, along with Austria, Switzerland was the first to reopen bars and restaurants and get society back to a state of near-normalcy. While it got away relatively unscathered in the spring and summer, the second wave hit hard in autumn. Switzerland has, of late, experienced a substantial spike in Covid-19 infections. In the seven days leading up to November 20, its Federal Office of Public Health reported 615 deaths, making it the most deadly week of the pandemic. Still, the government is refusing to shut down. Finance minister Ueli Maurer has warned a second lockdown would be “disastrous”, and accused the Covid-19 taskforce of “short-sightedness and moralising”, branding its scientists as “know-it-alls”. “We have to live, we have to be able to earn money, to be able to shop,” he said last week. Instead, officials are urging “self-responsibility” and that people simply follow the existing rules. Currently, masks are compulsory outdoors and in public indoor spaces, hospitality venues must close at 11pm, a maximum of 10 people can gather indoors, and no more than four people can share a table in a restaurant unless they live together. Writing from Davos, The Telegraph’s Alexandra Williams describes: “Apart from the ubiquitous sight of masks - available crystal-encrusted in this luxury Swiss ski resort – there are almost no signs of a global pandemic.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/n...-restrictions/

Another one from Focus magazine in Germany (which is in German only unfortunately). It strikes a more cautious tone however the headline translates as "The miraculous Corona Turnaround in Switzerland" i.e. WITHOUT LOCKDOWN!

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._12711271.html

marton · #**17285** 30.11.2020, 09:05

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	A couple of international reports on the Swiss response to the second wave, first in the Telegraph:

From your Telegraph link, the reason for success is clear "masks are compulsory outdoors and in public indoor spaces".

#**17286** 30.11.2020, 09:10

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Another one from Focus magazine in Germany (which is in German only unfortunately). It strikes a more cautious tone however the headline translates as "The miraculous Corona Turnaround in Switzerland" i.e. WITHOUT LOCKDOWN!

What miraculous corona turnaround? This one: "While it got away relatively unscatheed in the spring and summer, the second wave hit hard in autumn. Switzerland has, of late, experienced a substantial spike in Covid-19 infections. In the seven days leading up to November 20, its Federal Office of Public Health reported 615 deaths, making it the most deadly week of the pandemic"?

TonyClifton · #**17287** 30.11.2020, 09:18

	Quote:
	What miraculous corona turnaround? This one: "While it got away relatively unscatheed in the spring and summer, the second wave hit hard in autumn. Switzerland has, of late, experienced a substantial spike in Covid-19 infections. In the seven days leading up to November 20, its Federal Office of Public Health reported 615 deaths, making it the most deadly week of the pandemic"?

Of course we're experiencing deaths, we're in the middle of a pandemic. The point is that lockdowns don't save any lives. Germany as well as many eastern European countries now experiencing more deaths than in the first wave of the pandemic after locking down hard in the spring.

marton · #**17288** 30.11.2020, 09:24

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Of course we're experiencing deaths, we're in the middle of a pandemic. The point is that lockdowns don't save any lives. Germany as well as many eastern European countries now experiencing more deaths than in the first wave of the pandemic after locking down hard in the spring.

Covid infections in England fall by 30% over lockdown - React study
Source

V__ · #**17289** 30.11.2020, 09:47

United Kingdom: The second wave appears to have peaked before lockdown

It was only four weeks ago that Boris Johnson plunged Britain into a second lockdown. The Prime Minister, flanked by Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance, said that he could not ignore the modelling. Deaths, the Prime Minister explained, could reach ‘several thousand a day’, with a ‘peak of mortality’ worse than April. ‘Doctors and nurses would be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would get oxygen and who wouldn't, who would live and who would die,’ he warned.

Today, however, with the country about to enter a new, tougher tiered system, the latest figures raise serious questions over those claims – and consequently, the need for a second lockdown.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...efore-lockdown

Darcy1 · #**17290** 30.11.2020, 10:03

	Quote:
	What miraculous corona turnaround? This one: "While it got away relatively unscatheed in the spring and summer, the second wave hit hard in autumn. Switzerland has, of late, experienced a substantial spike in Covid-19 infections. In the seven days leading up to November 20, its Federal Office of Public Health reported 615 deaths, making it the most deadly week of the pandemic"?

I think the second wave has been handled really badly. Putting the economy ahead of peoples lives is selfish and dangerous.
We came out of lockdown too quickly in the spring,the mask rules should have been brought into force immediately rather than the slow and staggered way it was done.

No wonder there is such a casual attitude about it with people,when the Swiss government is not even taking it seriously. How many deaths are needed before they wake up and realise what's going on?

TonyClifton · #**17291** 30.11.2020, 10:14

	Quote:	V__
	United Kingdom: The second wave appears to have peaked before lockdown It was only four weeks ago that Boris Johnson plunged Britain into a second lockdown. The Prime Minister, flanked by Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance, said that he could not ignore the modelling. Deaths, the Prime Minister explained, could reach ‘several thousand a day’, with a ‘peak of mortality’ worse than April. ‘Doctors and nurses would be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would get oxygen and who wouldn't, who would live and who would die,’ he warned. Today, however, with the country about to enter a new, tougher tiered system, the latest figures raise serious questions over those claims – and consequently, the need for a second lockdown. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...efore-lockdown

This shouldn't come as a surprise now considering how Switzerland has also managed to reduce cases without the need for a lockdown. The only astonishing thing is that governments are continuing with lockdowns in spite of the evidence that they don't work and given the massive collateral damage that they cause. Even the WHO have now said they're undesirable!

There were also lots of anti lockdown protests across Europe at the weekend, many have had enough.

komsomolez · #**17292** 30.11.2020, 10:33

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This shouldn't come as a surprise now considering how Switzerland has also managed to reduce cases without the need for a lockdown. The only astonishing thing is that governments are continuing with lockdowns in spite of the evidence that they don't work and given the massive collateral damage that they cause. Even the WHO have now said they're undesirable! There were also lots of anti lockdown protests across Europe at the weekend, many have had enough.

What does lock down mean anyhow? Closing shops, restaurants, museums, gyms? Or not allowing people to go out "without good reason" etc.? I think there needs to be a somewhat more differentiated discussion of the measures.

Then, if you look at the recent Covid trends in Switzerland, you will see that most of the decline comes from the French part where the cantons took stricter measures than the German part. I am not saying that is the only reason (I think these waves have somewhat an own "rhythm"), but you can hardly ignore the fact. Or maybe you can.

Belgianmum · #**17293** 30.11.2020, 10:41

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Of course we're experiencing deaths, we're in the middle of a pandemic. The point is that lockdowns don't save any lives. Germany as well as many eastern European countries now experiencing more deaths than in the first wave of the pandemic after locking down hard in the spring.

Wasn’t the whole point of lockdown to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed? I’d say it achieved that.
In spring nobody really knew much about the virus and full lockdowns were a knee jerk reaction to the spiralling number of cases as governments didn’t really know what else to do.
Now, with the benefit of hindsight countries are doing things differently.
There may be more deaths now than in spring and that is not unexpected but we know a lot more about what we are dealing with now and hospitals are better equipped to cope with it. The first lockdown really just served to postpone things and buy more time to prepare for the next wave.

Darcy1 · #**17294** 30.11.2020, 10:42

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This shouldn't come as a surprise now considering how Switzerland has also managed to reduce cases without the need for a lockdown. The only astonishing thing is that governments are continuing with lockdowns in spite of the evidence that they don't work and given the massive collateral damage that they cause. Even the WHO have now said they're undesirable! There were also lots of anti lockdown protests across Europe at the weekend, many have had enough.

People may have had enough,but the virus is still here!
The amount of people flouting mask rules and not sanitising their hands is probably a big factor in rising cases.
Lockdowns may have reduced success but hand washing is really important but yet more and more folk just stroll past the sanitisor before they enter the supermarket.

Belgianmum · #**17295** 30.11.2020, 10:46

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This shouldn't come as a surprise now considering how Switzerland has also managed to reduce cases without the need for a lockdown.

The hardest hit cantons all put restrictions in place and that’s where the biggest reduction in cases was.
Not total lockdowns but restrictions nevertheless.

TonyClifton · #**17296** 30.11.2020, 11:22

	Quote:	komsomolez
	What does lock down mean anyhow? Closing shops, restaurants, museums, gyms? Or not allowing people to go out "without good reason" etc.? I think there needs to be a somewhat more differentiated discussion of the measures. Then, if you look at the recent Covid trends in Switzerland, you will see that most of the decline comes from the French part where the cantons took stricter measures than the German part. I am not saying that is the only reason (I think these waves have somewhat an own "rhythm"), but you can hardly ignore the fact. Or maybe you can.

Lockdown is just the all encompassing term for Covid restrictions, it's a sliding scale though varying from orders to stay at home to shop and restaurant closures.

Regarding the higher decline of cases in the French speaking part of Switzerland it's too early to say whether the restrictions are the cause. It could be they're just further ahead on the curve than the rest of the country, simple regression to the mean.

komsomolez · #**17297** 30.11.2020, 11:27

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Lockdown is just the all encompassing term for Covid restrictions, it's a sliding scale though varying from orders to stay at home to shop and restaurant closures.

Aha. Why you use this term often so binary then? "Swiss miracle without lockdown". "Lockdowns kill more people than they save" etc.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Regarding the higher decline of cases in the French speaking part of Switzerland it's too early to say whether the restrictions are the cause. It could be they're just further ahead on the curve than the rest of the country, simple regression to the mean.

Your usual trick. We don't know for sure whether masks, measures, anything contributes. But surely "lockdowns" do more damage than good, proven many times.

TonyClifton · #**17298** 30.11.2020, 11:42

	Quote:	komsomolez
	Aha. Why you use this term often so binary then? "Swiss miracle without lockdown". "Lockdowns kill more people than they save" etc. Your usual trick. We don't know for sure whether masks, measures, anything contributes. But surely "lockdowns" do more damage then good, proven many times.

Well we do, scientific opinion on these matters was pretty much settled, a century or so of scientific research, until the world took leave of its senses in March 2020 for reasons I still can't begin to understand, and decided to copy the Chinese.

It's remarkable how neither masks nor lockdowns were mentioned in any public health document on pandemic response published prior to 2020.

Sigh · #**17299** 30.11.2020, 11:47

Numbers for fri, sat & sun (combined) are 8782 out of 54k tests.

399 hospitalisations
195 death

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/de/overview

Susie-Q · #**17300** 30.11.2020, 12:24

	Quote:	Darcy1
	Lockdowns may have reduced success but hand washing is really important but yet more and more folk just stroll past the sanitisor before they enter the supermarket.

I feel so paranoid about this as I am one of those people - I constantly use my own hand sanitizer that is in my pocket at all times.

I have sensitive hands & the free products at the stores isn't the best.