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Old 01.12.2020, 19:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sure but you are assuming that the mathematical relationship between the number of diagnosed cases and the number of people with antibodies is the same in November as in the period before when there is no evidence to support this assumption.

Clearly, there will be more people with antibodies at the end of November versus the end of October but it is just a guess as to how many.
You are such a physicist Marton! Purity to the last.

The chemist in me wants to make a series of hand waving assumptions based on observations and come to a reasonable estimate (I'm using deaths plus a fudge factor to account for lag rather than cases btw).
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  #17382  
Old 01.12.2020, 19:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Clearly, there will be more people with antibodies at the end of November versus the end of October but it is just a guess as to how many.
You can take antibody tests with a huge pinch of salt. 10 Days ago I had a Swiss Quality Roche antibody test that said positive, the same as in June. A friend who works at a Lab offered to do the Abbott test 3 days later, result Negative. I will get another Roche test in December in France as they quantify the result. I was ill 10 months ago so 3 days is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
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  #17383  
Old 01.12.2020, 19:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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This "curfew" makes me laugh - as if the virus is Cinderella and only becomes ugly/contagious after the stroke of 1 AM.
Well Cindy was warned to be back by 1 AM, or her pussy would turn into pumpkin. She finally showed up at 4AM moaning about some guy; Peter, Peter, ...

Sorry but this thread needs some smiles ...
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  #17384  
Old 02.12.2020, 10:19
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Re: Coronavirus

Covid19 - The End Game begins:

The UK becomes the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine
against Covid19, following regulatory approval immunisations are expected to start within
days in Britain.

BBC News - Covid Pfizer vaccine approved for use next week in the UK





Last edited by John William; 02.12.2020 at 12:52.
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  #17385  
Old 02.12.2020, 11:51
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Re: Coronavirus

Using Covid seropositivity to state immunity prevalence in population is naive and inaccurate. You can try to guestimate how many people have been already infected and have natural immunity by using seropositivity as a starting point only. For example, if Switzerland has 5% seropositive population you can guesstimate that the real number of people with natural immunity is 5 to 10 times greater.
Thus we would not need that many doses of vaccine to achieve complete remission of pandemic (until the next season when it inevitably comes back).
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Old 02.12.2020, 11:54
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Re: Coronavirus

Does every guest -also when one is alone- in a restaurant ( COOP ) have to fill out this form BAG for contact tracing? Or only one person of a guest “group“?

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Old 02.12.2020, 11:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Using Covid seropositivity to state immunity prevalence in population is naive and inaccurate. You can try to guestimate how many people have been already infected and have natural immunity by using seropositivity as a starting point only. For example, if Switzerland has 5% seropositive population you can guesstimate that the real number of people with natural immunity is 5 to 10 times greater.
Thus we would not need that many doses of vaccine to achieve complete remission of pandemic (until the next season when it inevitably comes back).
What?
So people without antibodies are naturally immune
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  #17388  
Old 02.12.2020, 12:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Does every guest -also when one is alone- in a restaurant ( COOP ) have to fill out this form BAG for contact tracing? Or only one person of a guest “group“?
Thinking it through I would say at least one person from each family (ie living together) group should scan. No downside to everyone in a group scanning. You get to share in the experience.
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  #17389  
Old 02.12.2020, 12:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Using Covid seropositivity to state immunity prevalence in population is naive and inaccurate. You can try to guestimate how many people have been already infected and have natural immunity by using seropositivity as a starting point only. For example, if Switzerland has 5% seropositive population you can guesstimate that the real number of people with natural immunity is 5 to 10 times greater.
Thus we would not need that many doses of vaccine to achieve complete remission of pandemic (until the next season when it inevitably comes back).
So you claim 25-50% are somehow naturally immune?
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  #17390  
Old 02.12.2020, 12:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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What would be really helpful would be a breakdown of Coronavirus cases within the cantons with particularly high cases.
Surely each Gemeinde must be getting figures of local cases? Maybe the information is out there and someone can point me in the right direction?
Canton Zurich has it: https://www.zh.ch/de/gesundheit/coro...kanton-zuerich
Scroll down till you see the map.
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  #17391  
Old 02.12.2020, 12:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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The UK becomes the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine
against Covid19, following regulatory approval immunisations are expected to start within
days in Britain.

BBC News - Covid Pfizer vaccine approved for use next week in the UK




I hope everything will go well
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  #17392  
Old 02.12.2020, 12:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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What?
So people without antibodies are naturally immune
Yes, if they had Covid infection they would be naturally immune even without detectable ant-bodies. Minority of people develop detectable anti-bodies to Covid. Only those who have severe symptoms could be expected to develop high anti-body titer. Since we know that sever symptoms observed in a small subset of cases we can extrapolate that those with detectable antibodies represent less than 10% of actual infection cases.
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  #17393  
Old 02.12.2020, 12:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Does every guest -also when one is alone- in a restaurant ( COOP ) have to fill out this form BAG for contact tracing? Or only one person of a guest “group“?

Attachment 140818
It says at least one person from each group has to do it so if you are alone then you do it, if you are with others just one person has to do it but more can if they wish.
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  #17394  
Old 02.12.2020, 12:49
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Re: Coronavirus

Todays published numbers are 4786 out of 26 k tests

230 hospitalisations
115 death

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/de/overview
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Old 02.12.2020, 13:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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I hope everything will go well
Me too - will give us some good insight before we receive it here in Switzerland...
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  #17396  
Old 02.12.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, if they had Covid infection they would be naturally immune even without detectable ant-bodies. Minority of people develop detectable anti-bodies to Covid. Only those who have severe symptoms could be expected to develop high anti-body titer. Since we know that sever symptoms observed in a small subset of cases we can extrapolate that those with detectable antibodies represent less than 10% of actual infection cases.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...vered-patients

A study published yesterday in JAMA Internal Medicine of 175 patients who recovered from mild COVID-19 reveals wide variation in the levels of antibodies against the novel coronavirus, ranging from very high levels in 2 patients to undetectable levels in 10—but no significant difference in illness duration.

Researchers from Fudan University in Shanghai, China, measured antibody levels in COVID-19 patients released from Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center after being hospitalized from Jan 24 to Feb 26.

Of the 175 patients, 165 (94%) had significantly higher levels of COVID-19 antibodies than 13 uninfected controls in the convalescent phase of infection. Antibody levels were medium-low in 29 patients (17%), medium-high in 69 patients (39%), and high in 25 patients (14%).
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Old 02.12.2020, 13:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Todays published numbers are 4786 out of 26 k tests

230 hospitalisations
115 death

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/de/overview
Underwhelming
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  #17398  
Old 02.12.2020, 14:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...vered-patients

A study published yesterday in JAMA Internal Medicine of 175 patients who recovered from mild COVID-19 reveals wide variation in the levels of antibodies against the novel coronavirus, ranging from very high levels in 2 patients to undetectable levels in 10—but no significant difference in illness duration.

Researchers from Fudan University in Shanghai, China, measured antibody levels in COVID-19 patients released from Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center after being hospitalized from Jan 24 to Feb 26.

Of the 175 patients, 165 (94%) had significantly higher levels of COVID-19 antibodies than 13 uninfected controls in the convalescent phase of infection. Antibody levels were medium-low in 29 patients (17%), medium-high in 69 patients (39%), and high in 25 patients (14%).
Please stop confusing people with facts, it makes it difficult for them to continue to spread misinformation.
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Old 02.12.2020, 14:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Please stop confusing people with facts, it makes it difficult for them to continue to spread misinformation.
I apologize.
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Old 02.12.2020, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

I think the idea of a high level of pre-existing natural immunity seems far-fetched.

In a Washington state choir practice, of the 60 members present, 53 covid cases were resultant.

Not what you would expect if 25-50% of people were naturally immune.
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