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  #18881  
Old 01.01.2021, 20:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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I guess there's a decent chance shops reopen but pubs and restaurants stay shut. That'd be relatively sensible.
I'd say close bars/places whose primary purpose is selling drinks, and re-open restaurants with prudent restrictions, ie spacing.


Regardless, the new covid is here and will start to run riot 'til the spring, as all respiratory viruses do.
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  #18882  
Old 01.01.2021, 21:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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I guess there's a decent chance shops reopen but pubs and restaurants stay shut. That'd be relatively sensible.
Ah, true. You are in the land of no shops.
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  #18883  
Old 01.01.2021, 21:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Im not sure that an increase of "0.4 to 0.7" is a sensible way to express it. It should be given as a % of the previous R.
Absolutely. Does this refer to an unmitigated natural R, or to where we are now with measures?
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  #18884  
Old 01.01.2021, 21:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you think the current semi-lockdown in Switzerland/ZH that is until 22nd January will get extended?

Am I correct in understanding that the decision might be made on the 6th of January?

Judging by previous "rubber-banding" of Swiss authorities in handling of Covid here is my prediction: The lockdown will be softened and we will be going full steam into the "third wave" in the spring of 2021 which will be the worst wave of all and make Switzerland 2021 European champion in Covid deaths per capita.
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  #18885  
Old 01.01.2021, 21:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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I guess there's a decent chance shops reopen but pubs and restaurants stay shut. That'd be relatively sensible.
Which shops are closed? As far as I know Aargau is the only canton where non essential shops are closed.
Otherwise there are just the opening hour restrictions in most cantons.

I’d be happy if cafés and restaurants were to reopen but pubs and clubs stay shut.
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  #18886  
Old 01.01.2021, 22:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Judging by previous "rubber-banding" of Swiss authorities in handling of Covid here is my prediction: The lockdown will be softened and we will be going full steam into the "third wave" in the spring of 2021 which will be the worst wave of all and make Switzerland 2021 European champion in Covid deaths per capita.
Not if we vaccinate all vulnerable by then. But there will be tens of thousands of cases per day with this new variant, because we will be nowhere near vaccinating 2/3 of the population (or 4/5 as they say is needed for the new variant).
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  #18887  
Old 01.01.2021, 22:03
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Not if we vaccinate all vulnerable by then. But there will be tens of thousands of cases per day with this new variant, because we will be nowhere near vaccinating 2/3 of the population (or 4/5 as they say is needed for the new variant).
How many are vulnerable? Depending on definition, there are up to 3 million if you include all above 65, all with hypertension, diabetes, overweight.
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  #18888  
Old 01.01.2021, 22:06
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Not if we vaccinate all vulnerable by then.
There's not enough vaccines being produced, hence the UK (sensible) 1 dose.
I'm surprised no-one else has announced this as a policy, now the UK has broke the ice.
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  #18889  
Old 01.01.2021, 22:07
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There's not enough vaccines being produced, hence the UK (sensible) 1 dose.
I'm surprised no-one else has announced this as a policy, now the UK has broke the ice.
Same discussion now in Germany
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  #18890  
Old 01.01.2021, 22:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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How many are vulnerable? Depending on definition, there are up to 3 million if you include all above 65, all with hypertension, diabetes, overweight.
There is order, set by the government, with decreasing risk:

first 75+, then with severe pre-conditions , then 65+, then with mild pre-conditions, then everyone else.

By vaccinating all 75+ (they are about 400-500k) we will already be able bring the death toll around 10-fold down. But the hospitals will remain stretched because hospitalization and oxygen are needed across all ages, unfortunately.

The graph below indicates quite clearly who must be vaccinated first:

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epid...?detTime=total
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Last edited by LifeStrain; 01.01.2021 at 22:32.
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  #18891  
Old 01.01.2021, 23:15
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Re: Coronavirus

Just finished watching "Outbreak" a 1995 virus film starring Dustin Hoffman. Those computers looked so different back then
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  #18892  
Old 01.01.2021, 23:18
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Just finished watching "Outbreak" a 1995 virus film starring Dustin Hoffman. Those computers looked so different back then
And look at what lockdown meant there!
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  #18893  
Old 01.01.2021, 23:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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How many are vulnerable? Depending on definition, there are up to 3 million if you include all above 65, all with hypertension, diabetes, overweight.
A sensible initial cutoff would be to ignore milder things like hypertension and diabetes in the under 50s. That's mean vaccinating.

- 60 plus
- 50 plus with mild condition
- Any adults with severe conditions

Something like that
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  #18894  
Old 02.01.2021, 00:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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I’d be happy if cafés and restaurants were to reopen but pubs and clubs stay shut.
I've read that restaurants are one of the biggest ways that the virus spreads easily, so I'm not sure it's a good idea to reopen them... and especially not until we have some idea of what's going to happen with this new variant of the virus. Even with social distancing in the restaurants, people are still sharing bathrooms, etc. and people will have to have their masks off to eat. I guess the virus can linger in the air for up to 8 minutes.
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  #18895  
Old 02.01.2021, 00:37
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I've read that restaurants are one of the biggest ways that the virus spreads easily, so I'm not sure it's a good idea to reopen them... and especially not until we have some idea of what's going to happen with this new variant of the virus. Even with social distancing in the restaurants, people are still sharing bathrooms, etc. and people will have to have their masks off to eat. I guess the virus can linger in the air for up to 8 minutes.
I am morally preparing for the spring-like complete shutdown until May or so with this new strain hitting us soon.
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Old 02.01.2021, 00:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am morally preparing for the spring-like complete shutdown until May or so with this new strain hitting us soon.
Yeah, and I suspect that the Swiss authorities will wait until that strain has spread throughout much of the population to try to do anything about it. They don't seem too keen on preventative measures. They'd apparently rather wait and just try to put a "Band Aid" on a situation that has already become much, much worse.
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Old 02.01.2021, 00:53
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Yeah, and I suspect that the Swiss authorities will wait until that strain has spread throughout much of the population to try to do anything about it. They don't seem too keen on preventative measures. They'd apparently rather wait and just try to put a "Band Aid" on a situation that has already become much, much worse.
I believe they are the secret herd immunity concept admirers here. Their decision to allow big gatherings in October just as things were slowly getting out of control in September made me think so.
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Old 02.01.2021, 01:44
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I am morally preparing for the spring-like complete shutdown until May or so with this new strain hitting us soon.
I really hope it's not that long. When they've done the over 60s and those with severe conditions it should be a "on your head be it" arrangement.
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  #18899  
Old 02.01.2021, 02:03
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I really hope it's not that long. When they've done the over 60s and those with severe conditions it should be a "on your head be it" arrangement.
Which is highly irresponsible, no one knows for sure what long term consequences of Covid are, it certainly does some very unusual things, for example:

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2020/12/...nds-new-study/

I would not want myself or anyone who means something to me to be infected with it in any case, not today, not tomorrow.
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Old 02.01.2021, 03:22
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Which is highly irresponsible, no one knows for sure what long term consequences of Covid are, it certainly does some very unusual things, for example:

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2020/12/...nds-new-study/

I would not want myself or anyone who means something to me to be infected with it in any case, not today, not tomorrow.
Let's remember that civil liberties and personal responsibility is a thing. Lockdowns are the exception not the rule.

Yes when people are dying in significant numbers that's a reason to restrict liberty. Talking about vague and uncommon side effects isn't. Influenza can also cause post-viral fatigue syndrome.

Anyone under c. 30 has more to fear from influenza than Covid - "the risk of complications for healthy children is higher for flu compared to COVID-19." CDC.

"based on mid-range assumptions, it appears that those under 25 have a significantly lower risk of dying from COVID-19 vs. the flu, while those over 35 are at significantly greater risk. Those over 75, in particular, are at the greatest risk of dying from COVID-19."

At 32 I'm probably roughly at the point where the diseases have comparable risk. When the risk of passing the disease onto old and vulnerable people is gone we younger people must be set free.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 02.01.2021 at 03:50.
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