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  #18941  
Old 02.01.2021, 22:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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The New York Times stopped reporting anything objectively about the UK ever since the Brexit referendum. Another piece today claimed that holocaust survivors would be ashamed of Britain for leaving the EU. A once serious news paper has become a rag.
Unlike the Daily Mail which you keep quoting

You seem to have misunderstood the Holocaust opinion piece.
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  #18942  
Old 02.01.2021, 23:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is there some analysis how widespread this new variant already might be on the continent? I keep reading about this being identified in spots here and there, but given that all coutries seem magnitudes behind the UK in genomic sequencing I wonder whether there are extrapolation studies or similar. Also, are we able to step up sequencing quickly?

If/when we reach similar levels of dominance of this strain, we will be in a world of pain. I don't know how serious the UK Tiers are in reality, but on paper Tier 4 looks pretty bad - and is still insufficient to get R below 1.
I don't know about elsewhere in Europe, but apparently there are now nine confirmed cases of the UK and South Africa strains here in CH. And that is only what's been officially confirmed.

South African Covid variant reported in southern Switzerland
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/south-a...rland/46257338

"At least nine people in Switzerland have now been detected with the mutant virus, six with the British version and three with a version detected in South Africa...
The two variants are reportedly spreading across the world. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization says there is not enough information to determine whether the variants could undermine vaccines being rolled out."


I think it's fairly safe to assume that more and more cases of those strains will be detected here in CH and elsewhere. The way I see it, this is a very crucial "tipping point" right now in terms of where this pandemic is headed.
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  #18943  
Old 03.01.2021, 00:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not that you should care anyway, it's clear that the majority of Europe's leaders isn't listening to lockdown/masks sceptics like me (though I still hold out hope for Switzerland). They're carrying on their path anyway even in the absence of any real world evidence that any of their actions are having a meaningful effect.
The point of lockdowns in solely to avoid overcrowding ICUs. These days 7/10 of ICU patients survive, but if there are no ICUs available, we will have to choose who lives and who dies, like it happened in Spring in Italy. That's all about this, lockdowns help to manage our limited resources. this is actually why Swiss government tightened the measures recently, as they said, they cannot afford an accidental sharp rise in cases from this level.

Besides, these ICU beds are also used to treat non-covid patients (see below). If they are overloaded, imagine, god forbid, you get a nasty accident and there are no places left for you? As of now Aargau, Zug, Solothurn and Glarus are pretty much fully booked, meaning they will have to transport you to the neighboring canton and lose precious time.
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  #18944  
Old 03.01.2021, 00:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've never said that Covid is a hoax, just that the response to it hasn't worked and wasn't warranted in the first place given how the vast majority of people make a good and full recovery.

Let's have a look at how Sweden are doing, see in the attached chart. If Sweden were the control group (no masks, no lockdowns) what would be your conclusion as to how Europe has managed the pandemic response?

Not that you should care anyway, it's clear that the majority of Europe's leaders isn't listening to lockdown/masks sceptics like me (though I still hold out hope for Switzerland). They're carrying on their path anyway even in the absence of any real world evidence that any of their actions are having a meaningful effect.
As ever refusing to acknowledge just how badly Sweden is doing compared to the rest of Scandinavia. Those countries are structurally and socially similar yet Sweden is 5 to 10 times worse.

Here’s a little reading for you

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22...ovid-response/
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  #18945  
Old 03.01.2021, 01:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't know about elsewhere in Europe, but apparently there are now nine confirmed cases of the UK and South Africa strains here in CH. And that is only what's been officially confirmed.

I think it's fairly safe to assume that more and more cases of those strains will be detected here in CH and elsewhere. The way I see it, this is a very crucial "tipping point" right now in terms of where this pandemic is headed.
It's all over the place already, they even detected it in China and Australia, most of European countries also have a few cases, meaning the point of no return has passed now. We must stay disciplined and hope that they manage to vaccinate the most vulnerable before the new version explodes in a few weeks...
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  #18946  
Old 03.01.2021, 01:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's all over the place already, they even detected it in China and Australia, most of European countries also have a few cases, meaning the point of no return has passed now. We must stay disciplined and hope that they manage to vaccinate the most vulnerabe...
Twice.
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  #18947  
Old 03.01.2021, 01:31
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Re: Coronavirus

So the vaccine mix and match was a load of bull by the NYT https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55519042
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  #18948  
Old 03.01.2021, 02:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't know about elsewhere in Europe, but apparently there are now nine confirmed cases of the UK and South Africa strains here in CH. And that is only what's been officially confirmed.

South African Covid variant reported in southern Switzerland
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/south-a...rland/46257338

"At least nine people in Switzerland have now been detected with the mutant virus, six with the British version and three with a version detected in South Africa...
The two variants are reportedly spreading across the world. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization says there is not enough information to determine whether the variants could undermine vaccines being rolled out."


I think it's fairly safe to assume that more and more cases of those strains will be detected here in CH and elsewhere. The way I see it, this is a very crucial "tipping point" right now in terms of where this pandemic is headed.
As far as I see it we will be at herd immunity by the summer with the R rate of this new variant. Question is what proportion will be by vaccination. Hope Switzerland is revving through the gears. Lockdown isn't working anymore in London.
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  #18949  
Old 03.01.2021, 03:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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As far as I see it we will be at herd immunity by the summer with the R rate of this new variant. Question is what proportion will be by vaccination. Hope Switzerland is revving through the gears. Lockdown isn't working anymore in London.
I hope you are wrong because this also means that there will be huge numbers of deaths and hospitals will be forced to decide who lives and dies, initially it will be older people who bite the bullet but sooner or later also young will have to pay the price simply because there will be not enough beds to take in all patients, even younger ones.

We are looking at a pretty nightmarish first half of 2021. History repeats itself, Spanish flu hit hardest in the second wave, Covid will be the third.
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  #18950  
Old 03.01.2021, 10:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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So the vaccine mix and match was a load of bull by the NYT https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55519042
From your link
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Dr Mary Ramsay, Public Health England's head of immunisations, said: that on the "extremely rare occasions" where the same vaccine is unavailable or it is unknown which jab the patient received, it is "better to give a second dose of another vaccine than not at all".
So it is not "a load of bull" at all.
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  #18951  
Old 03.01.2021, 11:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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So the vaccine mix and match was a load of bull by the NYT https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55519042
Wow, who would have thought?!

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The point of lockdowns in solely to avoid overcrowding ICUs. These days 7/10 of ICU patients survive, but if there are no ICUs available, we will have to choose who lives and who dies, like it happened in Spring in Italy. That's all about this, lockdowns help to manage our limited resources. this is actually why Swiss government tightened the measures recently, as they said, they cannot afford an accidental sharp rise in cases from this level.

Besides, these ICU beds are also used to treat non-covid patients (see below). If they are overloaded, imagine, god forbid, you get a nasty accident and there are no places left for you? As of now Aargau, Zug, Solothurn and Glarus are pretty much fully booked, meaning they will have to transport you to the neighboring canton and lose precious time.
There we go again, appealing to the moral truth "but what if it happened to you?". This is where we lockdown sceptics have failed, in winning the emotional argument. How many ICUs have been saved from being overloaded from lockdowns and masks?

No amount of fact-based argument, graphs, charts or otherwise will ever win over the vast majority of people over when they feel they are morally correct. People believe lockdowns are ethically correct because they keep vulnerable people safe. To argue that this isn't the case is considered immoral hence the reaction we see to people like me.

The best example of this is to look at the reaction (number of likes) to the fake NYT headline on this thread to the truth. People will choose what they want to believe. I could present you with all types of factual arguments as to why your ICU argument isn't accurate, but ultimately you wont be interested to hear them.

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As ever refusing to acknowledge just how badly Sweden is doing compared to the rest of Scandinavia. Those countries are structurally and socially similar yet Sweden is 5 to 10 times worse.

Here’s a little reading for you

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22...ovid-response/
I've given up on reading what the English speaking media has to say on Sweden's Covid response. Far too often they add their spin during the process of translation, whilst not accurately reporting on the actual Covid debate that is going on in Sweden. So desperate they are to declare the Swedish experiment "over" or a "failure", the biggest lie being printed that Sweden pursued herd immunity strategy. Far better to go directly to Swedish media.

I've also pointed out to you on numerous occasions how one can't just pick or choose who Sweden is compared with in order to get the outcome you want. Compared to the EU, Sweden has basically performed no better or worse (in terms of death) in spite of not mandating masks or lockdowns.
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  #18952  
Old 03.01.2021, 12:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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As far as I see it we will be at herd immunity by the summer with the R rate of this new variant. Question is what proportion will be by vaccination. Hope Switzerland is revving through the gears. Lockdown isn't working anymore in London.
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I hope you are wrong because this also means that there will be huge numbers of deaths and hospitals will be forced to decide who lives and dies, initially it will be older people who bite the bullet but sooner or later also young will have to pay the price simply because there will be not enough beds to take in all patients, even younger ones.

We are looking at a pretty nightmarish first half of 2021. History repeats itself, Spanish flu hit hardest in the second wave, Covid will be the third.
With the current state of vaccination in Switzerland, I am indeed not too optimistic. This includes willingness to vaccinate, if we get past the problem of availability.

If we get to a point where people will accept that "nothing in terms of mitigation helps anymore", then we might also see a backlash from people simply giving up on distancing.
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  #18953  
Old 03.01.2021, 13:12
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Re: Coronavirus

It's strange how Covid-19 'went nuclear' in the UK with the new highly infectious variant within days of
the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine being approved.

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Old 03.01.2021, 13:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's strange how Covid-19 'went nuclear' in the UK with the new highly infectious variant within days of
the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine being approved.

Yes, it must be angry.
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  #18955  
Old 03.01.2021, 13:31
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Re: Coronavirus

I don't see a point of discussing anything with a person who denies the basics of biology, physics and statistics.
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Old 03.01.2021, 13:51
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Re: Coronavirus

I see that this thread is becoming annoying again...

It was so nice, during that brief phase, when people were able to have intelligent and informative conversations here without everything being constantly turned into an argument by a few posters here who cherry-pick information, who believe that their delusional sense of "personal freedoms" are more important than saving lives and bringing an end to a pandemic and who choose to ignore science whenever it conflicts with their subjective, cognitive biases.

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  #18957  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:04
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Re: Coronavirus

I agree dear Pancakes ... unfortunately the strange events of the last few years coupled with the world wide web, have given the village idiot a far too powerful voice.

Living in Bern, I regularly see the anti-measure protestors, many who are of at-risk age, and I am completely aghast at the idiocy of it all. We should be protesting at the lack of measures and for the inability for the population in Switzerland to understand how dangerous this situation is. However, I believe gathering in numbers is the opposite of what we should be doing - how else can we do it? Any ideas from the sane EF community?

Since the Swiss government has responded far too slowly at obtaining enough vaccines, along with the increasing anti-vax crowd, I feel like we are looking at a few very dark months ahead.
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  #18958  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:08
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Re: Coronavirus

I went skiing today at my local 'resort' .. It was really quiet at 9am but when we left at 12.30 it was crowded.
It was fairly disciplined in terms of the queue, people actually formed a line instead of the usual pushing game, people wore masks 99% of the time, even skiing, i suppose it's easier to just leave it on. One guy was employed to tell people not to gather in groups and chat.

I found it strange that the buvette was open but only to sit down and be served, no take-away allowed.. So it was full with one waitress going table to table serving all of the un-masked people.

End of report..
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Old 03.01.2021, 14:08
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Re: Coronavirus

And here we go again

"The canton of Vaud will have to close ski bars, museums and fitnesses

Vaud has returned for three consecutive days with a reproduction rate of the virus greater than 1, the limit set by the Confederation. According to figures from the Federal Office of Public Health (OFSP), this rate R was 1 on December 16, 1.02 on the 17th, 1.05 on the 18th and 1.07 on the 19th."

The announcement is expected sometime today.

https://www.rts.ch/info/regions/vaud...t-fitness.html
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Old 03.01.2021, 14:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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With the current state of vaccination in Switzerland, I am indeed not too optimistic. This includes willingness to vaccinate, if we get past the problem of availability.

If we get to a point where people will accept that "nothing in terms of mitigation helps anymore", then we might also see a backlash from people simply giving up on distancing.
Dare I suggest that if this new variant is deemed unlikely to be controlled we put in differential measures based on age so that the young provide immunity to the old.

The main argument against this was care homes - which should be fully vaccinated in a couple of weeks anyway.
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