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  #18961  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dare I suggest that if this new variant is deemed unlikely to be controlled we put in differential measures based on age so that the young provide immunity to the old.

The main argument against this was care homes - which should be fully vaccinated in a couple of weeks anyway.
I dont think we will manage to have all care home residents (those who want anyways) vaccinated in a couple of weeks.
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  #18962  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:36
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And here we go again

"The canton of Vaud will have to close ski bars, museums and fitnesses

Vaud has returned for three consecutive days with a reproduction rate of the virus greater than 1, the limit set by the Confederation. According to figures from the Federal Office of Public Health (OFSP), this rate R was 1 on December 16, 1.02 on the 17th, 1.05 on the 18th and 1.07 on the 19th."

The announcement is expected sometime today.

https://www.rts.ch/info/regions/vaud...t-fitness.html
Neuch‚tel announced the same this morning.
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  #18963  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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I dont think we wil manage to have all care home residents (those who want anyways) vacinated in a couple of weeks.
That begs the question why the hell not. Israel has done 15% of its population by now.
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  #18964  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dare I suggest that if this new variant is deemed unlikely to be controlled we put in differential measures based on age so that the young provide immunity to the old.

The main argument against this was care homes - which should be fully vaccinated in a couple of weeks anyway.
"Control" is not binary, and there is a big difference between R of 1.2 and 1.6. I agree the care homes might be outbof the woods in a month or two, but this still leaves plenty of other seniors.

What would you suggest that would help the situation while also being practically and legally possible? I have a feel that stay at home orders for risk groups will be neither.
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  #18965  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:40
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That begs the question why the hell not. Israel has done 15% of its population by now.
Commendable in that respect.

Not so commendable is the fact that Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and in the Gaza Strip are not going to be vaccinated by Israel at all.
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  #18966  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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There we go again, appealing to the moral truth "but what if it happened to you?". This is where we lockdown sceptics have failed, in winning the emotional argument. How many ICUs have been saved from being overloaded from lockdowns and masks?
How can that be quantified? How do we know how many patients would have needed ICU beds if there hadnít been lockdowns and masks?
Itís pretty much impossible to do a controlled experiment and compare lockdown vs no lockdown.
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  #18967  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:42
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That begs the question why the hell not. Israel has done 15% of its population by now.
Vaccine orders were placed late...so we have to wait.
Then there is the question of infrastructure & coordination.
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  #18968  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Vaccine orders were placed late...so we have to wait.
Then there is the question of infrastructure & coordination.
went to check whe they signed what and found a funny mistake on the english page of the official bag site:

https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home...-id-80732.html

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In August 2020, the Swiss federal government concluded an agreement with the Swiss company Moderna for 4.5 million doses of vaccine.

I still think things vith vaccination will go much faster as Moderna gets approved, as this one is produced locally.
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  #18969  
Old 03.01.2021, 14:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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went to check whe they signed what and found a funny mistake on the english page of the official bag site:

https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home...-id-80732.html




I still think things vith vaccination will go much faster as Moderna gets approved, as this one is produced locally.
Just because parts are done in Switzerland doesnt mean we get it first. Whoever ordered first will get it first..
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  #18970  
Old 03.01.2021, 15:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Vaccine orders were placed late...so we have to wait.
Then there is the question of infrastructure & coordination.
It isnít so much that the orders were placed late as that the Swiss went for a diversified approach and ordered a spread of different vaccines.
Unfortunately the one they ordered last and the fewest doses of is the only that has so far been approved here. I think they were banking in Moderna being a bit faster and that gamble hasnít paid off.
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  #18971  
Old 03.01.2021, 15:04
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Neuch‚tel announced the same this morning.
I know that it was just a matter of time, but its tiring the same.
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  #18972  
Old 03.01.2021, 15:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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How can that be quantified? How do we know how many patients would have needed ICU beds if there hadnít been lockdowns and masks?
Itís pretty much impossible to do a controlled experiment and compare lockdown vs no lockdown.
It's definitely ethically difficult to conduct such an experiment.

But, if such an experiment were to be conducted with volunteers, I know a few people whom I would 'volunteer' to put in a room for a couple of months with the virus, without masks or other protection.

I suspect they wouldn't be willing volunteers even though their opinions are so staunch from behind their keyboards tucked up in the safety of their own homes.
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  #18973  
Old 03.01.2021, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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I know that it was just a matter of time, but its tiring the same.
I couldnít agree more.
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  #18974  
Old 03.01.2021, 15:20
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That begs the question why the hell not. Israel has done 15% of its population by now.
Population of Israel is concentrated, Israel has mostly a universal HMO health system, and I believe they are effective at mobilization. Vaccination is a concerted effort. Other countries are not organized in the same manner. For example, the US is akin to chickens with their heads cut off, giving control but no funds to local municipalities. Operation warp speed dropped the ball with one of the most important aspects - the distribution of the vaccine. Federalism and public health are strange bedfellows.
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  #18975  
Old 03.01.2021, 15:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Compare ICU occupancy with previous years.
It is a naive idea that large capacities usually stand by idle until they are needed. Hospitals create space by shifting and scheduling operations. The much increased care need for Covid has in parts been met by other rescheduling other treatments.
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  #18976  
Old 03.01.2021, 15:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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How can that be quantified? How do we know how many patients would have needed ICU beds if there hadnít been lockdowns and masks?
Itís pretty much impossible to do a controlled experiment and compare lockdown vs no lockdown.
I think it is pretty clear that without lockdown the situation would have been substantially worse. Comparing the way various countries have reacted shows that. Generally, the more libertarian western countries have fared worse than those who are more authoritarian or where the general population trust the government.
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  #18977  
Old 03.01.2021, 16:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still think things vith vaccination will go much faster as Moderna gets approved, as this one is produced locally.
Produced locally in bulk but then 100% sent to Spain for packaging.
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  #18978  
Old 03.01.2021, 19:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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How can that be quantified? How do we know how many patients would have needed ICU beds if there hadnít been lockdowns and masks?
Itís pretty much impossible to do a controlled experiment and compare lockdown vs no lockdown.
Well there's always Sweden , and then there's comparison to previous years. We know Covid is stretching ICUs (with lockdowns and masks), but they're normally stretched anyhow at this time of year.



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It's definitely ethically difficult to conduct such an experiment.

But, if such an experiment were to be conducted with volunteers, I know a few people whom I would 'volunteer' to put in a room for a couple of months with the virus, without masks or other protection.

I suspect they wouldn't be willing volunteers even though their opinions are so staunch from behind their keyboards tucked up in the safety of their own homes.
Such a pleasant notion to suggest that people who question the Covid response deserve to catch it!

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I think it is pretty clear that without lockdown the situation would have been substantially worse. Comparing the way various countries have reacted shows that. Generally, the more libertarian western countries have fared worse than those who are more authoritarian or where the general population trust the government.
This should be alarming, that there are people who seriously consider authoritarian governments preferable to democracy.

Finally, news from Germany, who has been in close to full lockdown for a month now.
Quote:
Germany's lockdown measures are having little impact as the country records high infection and death rates. Ahead of a summit this week, politicians are only divided on how long the current lockdown should be extended.

Current restrictions not working

The current lockdown has seen nonessential shops, beauty salons and cultural and nightlife venues shut; school holidays extended and private meet-ups limited. But this has had little impact on curbing infection rates.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-politi...ion/a-56119325
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  #18979  
Old 03.01.2021, 19:18
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Commendable in that respect.

Not so commendable is the fact that Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and in the Gaza Strip are not going to be vaccinated by Israel at all.
But those places have their own government. I imagine they are vaccinating Arabs in Israel proper.
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  #18980  
Old 03.01.2021, 19:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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"Control" is not binary, and there is a big difference between R of 1.2 and 1.6. I agree the care homes might be outbof the woods in a month or two, but this still leaves plenty of other seniors.

What would you suggest that would help the situation while also being practically and legally possible? I have a feel that stay at home orders for risk groups will be neither.
After all we have been through why wouldn't a stay at home order for over 65s or 70s (say) be legal. By all means allow a daily walk but not visiting indoor public spaces.

It'd save a lot of lives. Spain had a stay at home order for children for weeks and weeks in the first wave. Not even exercise allowed. When the new variant is here it's simply not safe for elderly people to be in enclosed public spaces. I've had 3 London friends get Covid in the last week and at least 2 I would suspect to be on the more cautious side.

Im not asking for unadulterated partying for the non-stay at home group as although not many would die the hospitals would still be in trouble. Just that we do everything we can to prevent unnecessary deaths. Probably just reopening of "non-essential shops".

If we keep going as we are my prediction is that there will be more deaths in 2021 than in 2020 in Switzerland. Problem is there's people willing to argue black is white when you try to gently point out the demographics at risk.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 03.01.2021 at 19:37.
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