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  #19021  
Old 04.01.2021, 22:48
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Re: Coronavirus

Which strategy- the clear protocol of the scientists/producers?

Clear Dementia is letting kids for back to school after a long holiday for one day only- just time enough to spread it to each other, staff, teaching and others - then lock the schools till half term. Madness, sheer madness- and blood on hands for sure.
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  #19022  
Old 04.01.2021, 22:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hi, we have some experience with this. My son was tested positive and after 10 days of isolation was allowed to go back to school, no additional test done. At the same time my daughter was quarantined because of her brother's positive test. She was tested negative in the beginning of her quarantine, was quarantined for a couple of weeks, but allowed to go back to work only after another negative test by the end of her quarantine.
Was reading up on this today for my own purposes...

The PCR test detects fragments of covid RNA. It cannot say if those fragments are part of a viable virus. Apparently live virus is gone by day 9 of the infection but fragments hang on for some time afterwards (up to 3 months in extreme cases after severe infections).

Sadly for GG this means an uncertain length of time until he can produce a negative test.

Would make sense if they accepted a 2 week old test as proof of immunity but I canít see that happening.
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  #19023  
Old 04.01.2021, 22:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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If I'm reading the BBC website correctly 1 in 60 residents in much of East London and Essex has been diagnosed in the last 7 days.

Given that's realistically 1 in 20 or 30 and that even with full lockdown R is unlikely to go significantly below 1 and there's already a high % had the disease they are heading for herd immunity in the next few weeks.
Wonít be that high. Undetected cases are currently estimated at nearer 20%.
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  #19024  
Old 04.01.2021, 22:57
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Re: Coronavirus

It's quite frightening when you look at the waves for the UK. The #'s have completely skyrocketed there in the past six weeks or so. This could very well be us in a month or two, particularly if those mutations continue to spread. I think they need to do something now to try to prevent this from happening here.

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Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55538937
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  #19025  
Old 04.01.2021, 23:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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If I'm reading the BBC website correctly 1 in 60 residents in much of East London and Essex has been diagnosed in the last 7 days.

Given that's realistically 1 in 20 or 30 and that even with full lockdown R is unlikely to go significantly below 1 and there's already a high % had the disease they are heading for herd immunity in the next few weeks.
I know it’s only anecdotal but out of the 18 members of my husband’s family 9 have had COVID in the past three weeks, all in the south east and they most of them haven’t been in contact with each other.
His sister and her husband and and his niece have all been really ill and are not out of the woods yet.
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  #19026  
Old 04.01.2021, 23:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which strategy- the clear protocol of the scientists/producers?

Clear Dementia is letting kids for back to school after a long holiday for one day only- just time enough to spread it to each other, staff, teaching and others - then lock the schools till half term. Madness, sheer madness- and blood on hands for sure.
The job of the producers is to provide the optimum dosage regimen for an individual. There is clear reason to depart from this when there is limited supply and high and increasing infections.

For instance: imagine the following scenario (numbers made up to illustrate the point)

1 dose prevents 90% of deaths.

2 doses taken across 12 weeks prevents 98% of deaths after the second dose.
2 doses taken across 4 weeks prevents 99% of deaths after the second dose.

We have 1 Million old people who have a 10% mortality rate, we have only 1 Million doses. 10% of totally unvaccinated people will be infected in a given time period:

Doing nothing would result in 10,000 deaths. This appears to be the French approach.
Vaccinating everyone once would result in 1,000 deaths.
Vaccinating half the people twice would result in 5050 deaths. 5000 from the unvaccinated group and 50 from the vaccinated group.

Obviously that's a huge oversimplification but it illustrates the point. In reality the gap between the two strategies would be even bigger (effect on R would be greater from the Boris strategy, some of the Boothroyd strategy people would be infected between the doses which I didn't account for)

Nevertheless the recommended dose would be the 4 week gap. Because it's not the job of pharma companies to provide recommendations based on epidemiology.

Boothroyd is just simply wrong to quote Pfizer's recommendation. Not because Pfizer are wrong but because their recommendation is based on a different set of considerations.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 05.01.2021 at 00:06.
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  #19027  
Old 04.01.2021, 23:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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I suspect the title has deterred some from reading. However, that is a well written article you have cited from a credible source and it includes a plethora of references to other articles with some compelling arguments. It will be interesting to see the results from future studies of the current period.
I didnít read it because I saw it is from the same idiots as the Great Barrington declaration. Totally discredited for that, cannot see there is any possibility of a balanced article coming from there.
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  #19028  
Old 04.01.2021, 23:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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The #'s have completely skyrocketed there in the past six weeks or so. This could very well be us in a month or two, particularly if those mutations continue to spread. I think they need to do something now to try to prevent this from happening here.
But will they?
The virus has been out and about for a year, and now it's basically gone out of control, particularly in the UK.
Which seems to indicate governments cannot effectively control it, especially with the lackadaisical attitude nowadays to the virus.
My layman's observation is people now rely on the paper masks and ignore distancing altogether.
It's exactly now where a bit more caution is called for.
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  #19029  
Old 04.01.2021, 23:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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I didn’t read it because I saw it is from the same idiots as the Great Barrington declaration. Totally discredited for that, cannot see there is any possibility of a balanced article coming from there.
Yeah, don't waste your time with it. As expected, they have completely ignored all the evidence that lockdowns have had a significant impact on bringing the numbers down last Spring.

Last edited by Pancakes; 04.01.2021 at 23:56.
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  #19030  
Old 04.01.2021, 23:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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I didnít read it because I saw it is from the same idiots as the Great Barrington declaration. Totally discredited for that, cannot see there is any possibility of a balanced article coming from there.
Media Bias/ Fact Check show them as centre-right with mostly factual reporting.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ameri...omic-research/

I hadn't heard of the Great Barrington Declaration until now. I'll take a closer look at it tomorrow. I see it's signed by professors from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford though, not typically individuals that I would brand as 'idiots'.

BBC is left of centre. I read The Economist myself and they appear to show as least biased. To be frank though you have to question all media, equal parts advertising, politics, business, PR and show business as George would say. Here's a reminder from the great man himself (specific mention of media at 7 mins):


Contains strong language
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  #19031  
Old 05.01.2021, 00:00
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Re: Coronavirus

Brexit Britain goes into a National Lockdown

Strange that the pandemic has turned into an 'arms race' between Covid19 on the one side 'going nuclear' with
'the new variant' after UK epidemiologist & scientists announced 'the deterrent' in the shape of the Phizer/BioNtech
vaccine and now they are looking at the nuclear option with the Astrazeneca-Oxford vaccine entering the fray
this week while keeping people in their homely 'fallout shelters' following tonight's lockdown announcement.

BBC News - New lockdown for England amid hardest weeks
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  #19032  
Old 05.01.2021, 00:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yeah, don't waste your time with it. As expected, they have completely ignored all the evidence that lockdowns have had a significant impact on bringing the numbers down last Spring.
Barrington is sadly wrong (well at least dangerous) as it'd result in hospitals overflowing as young people still get hospitalised in decent numbers even if they don't die.

There's still no reason to not to have age based discrimination in measures. Not in an effort to reach herd immunity in the young, but in recognition of the fact that old people are almost all of the deaths and it's dangerous out there.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 05.01.2021 at 00:23.
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  #19033  
Old 05.01.2021, 00:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Media Bias/ Fact Check show them as centre-right with mostly factual reporting.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ameri...omic-research/

I hadn't heard of the Great Barrington Declaration until now. I'll take a closer look at it tomorrow. I see it's signed by professors from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford though, not typically individuals that I would brand as 'idiots'.

BBC is left of centre. I read The Economist myself and they appear to show as least biased. To be frank though you have to question all media, equal parts advertising, politics, business, PR and show business as George would say. Here's a reminder from the great man himself (specific mention of media at 7 mins):


Contains strong language
"The invisible man...who can't handle money", lol..
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  #19034  
Old 05.01.2021, 00:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Barrington is sadly wrong as it'd result in hospitals overflowing as young people still get hospitalised in decent numbers even if they don't die.

There's still no reason to not to have age based discrimination in measures. Not in an effort to reach herd immunity in the young, but in recognition of the fact that old people are almost all of the deaths and it's dangerous out there.
I think that, unfortunately, not all elderly people are able to isolate. My neighbor is elderly and has no children or family in Switzerland. I offered to go to the store for him, but he said he'd rather go himself. (And online ordering is difficult when there's a long wait time for delivery -- not to mention the fact that a lot of elderly people don't even know how to use the internet).

Anyways, people shouldn't view this virus as something that is only killing elderly people. There are many, many cases where it has killed younger people and/or caused them to need hospitalization. As I mentioned here yesterday, my friend's mother in only 59 years old and was in good health and in good shape but is now in a coma in a hospital bed, hooked up to a ventilator, in Slovenia due to contracting COVID. I guess there is finally some signs that her lungs are finally beginning to soften, but it's not looking good, and she very well may not make it.
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  #19035  
Old 05.01.2021, 00:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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But will they?
The virus has been out and about for a year, and now it's basically gone out of control, particularly in the UK.
Which seems to indicate governments cannot effectively control it, especially with the lackadaisical attitude nowadays to the virus.
My layman's observation is people now rely on the paper masks and ignore distancing altogether.
It's exactly now where a bit more caution is called for.
We've had someone on here try and argue with a straight face that Japan hasn't had lots of Covid because people wear masks in trains. Despite the fact that the trains are empty here and the vast majority of the few people on them are masked.

I'm not denying masks help a bit with R, and that wearing them is sensible and harmless but some of the less observant of us haven't realised that they don't make safe activities that are inherently unsafe. Rather they make them merely a little less unsafe.

Social distancing is 90% of the battle. Everything else is tinkering at the edges. Im willing to be that someone who only went grocery shopping but never wore a mask would be far less likely to catch Covid than someone who travelled on the Team regularly and visited restaurants but was observant with mask wearing.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 05.01.2021 at 00:28.
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  #19036  
Old 05.01.2021, 00:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think that, unfortunately, not all elderly people are able to isolate. My neighbor is elderly and has no children or family in Switzerland. I offered to go to the store for him, but he said he'd rather go himself. (And online ordering is difficult when there's a long wait time for delivery -- not to mention the fact that a lot of elderly people don't even know how to use the internet).

Anyways, people shouldn't view this virus as something that is only killing elderly people. There are many, many cases where it has killed younger people and/or caused them to need hospitalization. As I mentioned here yesterday, my friend's mother in only 59 years old and was in good health and in good shape but is now in a coma in a hospital bed, hooked up to a ventilator, in Slovenia due to contracting COVID.
My response to that is don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Just because you wouldn't prevent every death doesn't mean you shouldn't try and stop the bulk of them.
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  #19037  
Old 05.01.2021, 00:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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There are many, many cases where it has killed younger people
That's not true, especially for Switzerland. There are some cases, but the chances of dying from corona for people from younger generation are extremely low. Level of hospitalisations in the younger groups is also quite low, especially considering the fact that they are responsible for the majority of the revealed (and even more unrevealed) cases of corona.
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  #19038  
Old 05.01.2021, 08:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Commendable in that respect.

Not so commendable is the fact that Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and in the Gaza Strip are not going to be vaccinated by Israel at all.
The usual toxic combination of ignorance & malice: the PA (Palestinian authority) is responsible for the health of Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza. It is planning to buy the Russian vaccine and refused help from Israel.
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  #19039  
Old 05.01.2021, 09:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Barrington is sadly wrong (well at least dangerous) as it'd result in hospitals overflowing as young people still get hospitalised in decent numbers even if they don't die.
How can you say that when it hasn't been tested anywhere? As opposed to the alternative route taken by western governments that demonstrably hasn't worked, both in stopping the spread of the virus and in reducing deaths.

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That's not true, especially for Switzerland. There are some cases, but the chances of dying from corona for people from younger generation are extremely low. Level of hospitalisations in the younger groups is also quite low, especially considering the fact that they are responsible for the majority of the revealed (and even more unrevealed) cases of corona.
Whatever you do don't let facts and the truth get in the way of a good scare story!
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  #19040  
Old 05.01.2021, 09:50
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Re: Coronavirus

The Swiss response is no less chaotic than the UK's/anyone elses.

Swiss have non- essential shops open, whereas relatively easy to control/clean restaurants/cafes are closed.
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