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  #1941  
Old 08.03.2020, 03:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Of course it's nonsense when the total population infected is so low. But it doesn't mean you shouldn't use the right mathematical formula. It's far far too early to work out just how deadly the disease is, I'd say you need to have to measure over a year at least. Yet we're in the situation where decisions based on something have to be taken because the infected rate of the population is increasing much faster than anticipated. So...
So Switzerland must make decisions based on a mortality rate of 25%.. Well better to live in Germany in such case, they can make decisions based on a mortality rate of 0%

What you also are forgetting is that it on average might take a lot more time to be considered recovered than it takes to die. And looking at only one country for the math makes zero sense since the sample size is much larger, and medical systems are hugely different, a case in Argentina could have a hospital for himself, a case in Italy by now is lucky if a bed is available, and let's not forget demographics it is likely that the average age a patient in Germany is younger than in Italy (Italy has the second oldest population in the world with about 23% being 65+ and the median being 47.3) Age is one of the reasons why Italy is so incredibly ed.

Last edited by EdwinNL; 08.03.2020 at 03:39.
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  #1942  
Old 08.03.2020, 03:48
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Re: Coronavirus

Italy just had a press conference (Yes at 2:30 at night), they have had debate with the regions and now final plans have been made and accepted by parliament, in a few hours these new definitive plans will be published in the official state paper and become effective immediately. SO we know in a few hours what they will do. (turned out that two different not agreed upon versions started going around some hours ago.)
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  #1943  
Old 08.03.2020, 07:10
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Re: Coronavirus

The approved version of the new Italian government decree, which can be downloaded here, states that exceptions to the lockdown apply "for movements motivated by proven work needs, or situations of necessity, or movements for health reasons. Return to your own home or place of residence is allowed."

Including all the Italian provinces cited in the decree, the BBC estimates that around 16 million people are affected; over 25% of the population of the country.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51787238

(It's news to me that Italy is in the Middle East ...)

Last edited by Stendec; 08.03.2020 at 07:27.
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  #1944  
Old 08.03.2020, 07:52
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Re: Coronavirus

Still I find it unbelievable that in the Zürich City Migros Restaurant hundreds sit there ( and many children ) at midday lunchtime as if the whole virus thing never was. It would be the easiest of places for a virus to spread. As well for the people that work in the kitchen or the clean up.
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  #1945  
Old 08.03.2020, 08:00
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Re: Coronavirus

Here's a map of the lockdown regions in Italy.
https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/12...h-more-than-70
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  #1946  
Old 08.03.2020, 09:18
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Re: Coronavirus

How can they do that in Italy? 16 million people on lockdown! Its called legally " false imprisonment ". They could never do that here ( non EU )
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  #1947  
Old 08.03.2020, 09:21
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Re: Coronavirus

So where are we at ?

CH has decided to quit testing of all but most serious cases? So pretty much no more reporting of numbers here? Just let it run and treat sick people as they appear?

keep your hands clean and carry on?
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  #1948  
Old 08.03.2020, 09:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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So where are we at ?

CH has decided to quit testing of all but most serious cases? So pretty much no more reporting of numbers here? Just let it run and treat sick people as they appear?

keep your hands clean and carry on?
I find this infuriating considering how well this method worked for the other countries who attempted to ignore and just hope it resolves itself.
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  #1949  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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I find this infuriating considering how well this method worked for the other countries who attempted to ignore and just hope it resolves itself.


Auf geht's, Zähne zusammenbeißen und durch! “ Youre in the CH now
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  #1950  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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I find this infuriating considering how well this method worked for the other countries who attempted to ignore and just hope it resolves itself.
As opposed to Italy who stopped flights to China, locked down towns etc.... where has that got them??
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  #1951  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:07
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Re: Coronavirus

Anyone know the effect on border crossings with neighbouring countries?

Interesting to see ski resorts being closed ... That is a first.
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  #1952  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:08
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Re: Coronavirus

meanwhile my friend who is not running now but this is still on?
"LA Marathon is still happening this weekend. People from 80 countries. Almost 30,000 people. All running. All sweating. All huddled together. All breathing and gasping heavily"

and the advice fm officials?

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  #1953  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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As opposed to Italy who stopped flights to China, locked down towns etc.... where has that got them??
But what is the justification to end testing?
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  #1954  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:11
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Re: Coronavirus

Seriously? 30'000 people, spectators and runners, to keep a 6 foot distance? So the runners will have to adjust their running speed to all the other runners around them... never mind their personal training pace and timing... How odd! I wonder why they didn't just cancel the event. Oh, yeah, money.
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  #1955  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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But what is the justification to end testing?
It’s expensive and time consuming. Just like they don’t test everyone who has the flu each year? What does it achieve? If you are not too bad stay at home until you’re well, how will testing help that?
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  #1956  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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As opposed to Italy who stopped flights to China, locked down towns etc.... where has that got them??
It was a little too late......plus "locked down towns" was never really applied in practice.
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  #1957  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Seriously? 30'000 people, spectators and runners, to keep a 6 foot distance? So the runners will have to adjust their running speed to all the other runners around them... never mind their personal training pace and timing... How odd! I wonder why they didn't just cancel the event. Oh, yeah, money.

it's mind boggling, and my friend who cancelled says no one gets a refund, even those who are ill or have potential risks...very odd...
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  #1958  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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meanwhile my friend who is not running now but this is still on?
"LA Marathon is still happening this weekend. People from 80 countries. Almost 30,000 people. All running. All sweating. All huddled together. All breathing and gasping heavily"

and the advice fm officials?

Help! I dont see a person anymore I just see a big virus standing in front of me!
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  #1959  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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As opposed to Italy who stopped flights to China, locked down towns etc.... where has that got them??
If we aren't testing, how can we be sure our numbers are any different than Italy?
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Auf geht's, Zähne zusammenbeißen und durch! “ Youre in the CH now
Do you think the Chinese have any less of a work ethic than the Swiss do?
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  #1960  
Old 08.03.2020, 10:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Anyone know the effect on border crossings with neighbouring countries?

Interesting to see ski resorts being closed ... That is a first.
Lol, as I see people are sooo relaxed here....nothing. They won't even hand you a form to fill in with your personal data, which places you visited lately etc. Back home in Romania they do that, they did it during previous epidemics too. Those who travelled to affected areas and/or present symptoms are either sent to centres of quarantine (luckily not many for the moment) or quarantined at their domicile. There are fines and ultimately opening a criminal record if you leave your domicile while in quarantine. I think we are at least a step ahead other countries in Europe in this crisis.
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