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  #19661  
Old 15.01.2021, 15:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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What an absolute waste of time and money.
Especially the advocates of sharp measures should welcome the vote as it will show the level of support in the population, potentially putting the deniers in their place.

While the Epidemiegesetz (law on epidemics) that was invoked in the spring was already voted on, the special powers it gives were clearly meant to be applied for a short term only. Now however we have a situation where the law introduced this summer makes them lasting, and measures may turn out to be necessary and implemented revolvingly, on-off-on, for a long time.

After all nobody knows whether the mutations will render the vaccines ineffective. And with the introduction of the Covid laws the power to apply those measures is given permanently.

Personally, I think the law should be time limited, e.g. valid for 5 years only, 10 at the most. Revise when there's enough solid data available and we know what we're actually dealing with.

Looking forward to +70% No (that is, for the new law).

Last edited by Urs Max; 15.01.2021 at 16:04.
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  #19662  
Old 15.01.2021, 16:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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It may be important to note that Manaus has been hit very hard by the first wave already. It was estimated that half the population or even more had been infected then, and hoped that that would provide natural protection in the coming waves (which is happening now). The infection rate data was derived from blood samples of blood donors, among which the covid antibody rate peaked above 40% (went back down later on, as should be expected).

Oh boy, were those hopes premature and unjustified

It doesn't bode well for us, either. And natural group immunisation as "strategy" (failure, actually) may well be out the window.
Evolution in action I'm afraid. For a RNA virus that mutates relatively easily being faced with a large population that is immune to it, natural selection will favour mutations that get round this immunity. It is no accident that the three mutations of concern have appeared in places with a relatively high herd immunity - South Africa and Manaus in particular, London/SE England to a lesser extent.

Good news, at least what I have most recently read, is that the UK variant is still controlled by the current vaccines and seems to be believed that the other two will also be. The problem may come when there is a large population of vaccine immune people which will then drive the virus mutations to get round that.

Even then, it looks likely that the vaccine will at least reduce the seriousness of the disease. Medium term it is likely to need annual updating to keep up with the virus - this is going to be something we get with our flu jabs in future.
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  #19663  
Old 15.01.2021, 16:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because we still have 4 digit new cases and two digit deaths per day?
You hopefully also do not cut of your parachute off just because it has been deployed and reduced the speed of your fall.
Even more so because the UK variant will become dominant in a few weeks with an R number some 1.5 times greater than the existing. They are trying to push that point further back to get as many vulnerable people vaccinated as possible.

If only they hadn't messed up the vaccine stratagy so far.
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  #19664  
Old 15.01.2021, 16:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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so with the vaccine roll out well underway will likely be meaningless.
you are too optimistic regarding vaccines
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  #19665  
Old 15.01.2021, 16:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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Evolution in action I'm afraid. For a RNA virus that mutates relatively easily being faced with a large population that is immune to it, natural selection will favour mutations that get round this immunity. It is no accident that the three mutations of concern have appeared in places with a relatively high herd immunity - South Africa and Manaus in particular, London/SE England to a lesser extent.

Good news, at least what I have most recently read, is that the UK variant is still controlled by the current vaccines and seems to be believed that the other two will also be. The problem may come when there is a large population of vaccine immune people which will then drive the virus mutations to get round that.

Even then, it looks likely that the vaccine will at least reduce the seriousness of the disease. Medium term it is likely to need annual updating to keep up with the virus - this is going to be something we get with our flu jabs in future.
Thanks Baboon - this is a really excellent point and something I hadn't considered previously. Consider this a virtual blobby - I gave you one too recently for me to add another.
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  #19666  
Old 15.01.2021, 16:44
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Re: Coronavirus

We have a positivity rate of just below 10 today for the first time since a long time!
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  #19667  
Old 15.01.2021, 16:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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We have a positivity rate of just below 10 today for the first time since a long time!
And it's Friday! We should go to a pub and drink to this.
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  #19668  
Old 15.01.2021, 17:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks Baboon - this is a really excellent point and something I hadn't considered previously. Consider this a virtual blobby - I gave you one too recently for me to add another.
Can't claim it as an original thought...was on a podcast interview with a virologist (I think Dr Jeffrey Barrett) I listened to Wednesday!
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  #19669  
Old 15.01.2021, 17:37
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Re: Coronavirus

Todays published numbers are 2396 out of 25 k tests

139 hospitalisations
66 death

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/overview
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  #19670  
Old 15.01.2021, 21:30
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Re: Coronavirus

"In a confidential action, the first federal councilors received the corona vaccine on Friday. Federal Council spokesman André Simonazzi confirmed the action in the “Tages-Anzeiger”. Simonazzi did not want to say which federal councilors received the vaccination. They don't want any competition over who has already been vaccinated and who isn't."

https://www.20min.ch/story/vertrauli...n-468640398269

But according to Der Blick

"But Der Blick knows from several sources: So far, Federal President Guy Parmelin (61), Health Minister Alain Berset (48) and Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis (59) have been vaccinated. As the fourth, Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter (57) is said to have already been vaccinated. Federal Chancellor Walter Thurnherr (57) and Vice Chancellors André Simonazzi and Viktor Rossi (52) are also rolling up their sleeves as part of the vaccination campaign, as Simonazzi confirms information from the “Tages-Anzeiger”.

https://www.blick.ch/politik/bereits...d16295463.html

They are not over 75 so unless they all belong to a high risk group ...preferential treatment?
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  #19671  
Old 15.01.2021, 21:56
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Re: Coronavirus

Oh boy...as if matters are not complicated enough

"Candle yes, light bulb no. Socks yes, pants no: The new federal corona rules are causing confusion and displeasure among retailers and customers."

https://www.20min.ch/story/laeden-to...g-571716241393
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  #19672  
Old 15.01.2021, 22:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh boy...as if matters are not complicated enough

"Candle yes, light bulb no. Socks yes, pants no: The new federal corona rules are causing confusion and displeasure among retailers and customers."

https://www.20min.ch/story/laeden-to...g-571716241393
Ridiculous, but these seemingly arbitrary decisions are inevitable once you start defining non-essential. I am still puzzled that Parmelin agreed to this.
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  #19673  
Old 15.01.2021, 23:14
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Re: Coronavirus

UK to close all travel corridors.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55681861

Travel corridors will be suspended from 4am on Monday 18 January.

Anyone arriving in the UK after 4am on Monday 18 January will need to self-isolate for 10 days.

You must have proof of a negative coronavirus test to travel to England from 4am on Monday 18 January.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...avel-corridors

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52544307
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  #19674  
Old 15.01.2021, 23:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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Evolution in action I'm afraid. For a RNA virus that mutates relatively easily being faced with a large population that is immune to it, natural selection will favour mutations that get round this immunity. It is no accident that the three mutations of concern have appeared in places with a relatively high herd immunity - South Africa and Manaus in particular, London/SE England to a lesser extent.

Good news, at least what I have most recently read, is that the UK variant is still controlled by the current vaccines and seems to be believed that the other two will also be. The problem may come when there is a large population of vaccine immune people which will then drive the virus mutations to get round that.
It is actually believed that all those variants evolved in immunodeficient persons, where the virus has had sufficient time (several weeks) in the host for all those mutations to occur (those UK, SA and Br variants are actually combinations of several mutations, which occurred simultaneously).

In any case, I'd say since we will block the current very efficient configuration by vaccines, the virus will have nothing else but to mutate into a very different version, which will likely be suboptimal for spreading and, hopefully, killing people.
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  #19675  
Old 16.01.2021, 00:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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It is actually believed that all those variants evolved in immunodeficient persons, where the virus has had sufficient time (several weeks) in the host for all those mutations to occur (those UK, SA and Br variants are actually combinations of several mutations, which occurred simultaneously).

In any case, I'd say since we will block the current very efficient configuration by vaccines, the virus will have nothing else but to mutate into a very different version, which will likely be suboptimal for spreading and, hopefully, killing people.
Actually a combination of the two. The initial development was said to be likely in those patients but the spread is due to the pool of people immune to the regular strain. The second part is the critical one, however.
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  #19676  
Old 16.01.2021, 12:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Actually a combination of the two. The initial development was said to be likely in those patients but the spread is due to the pool of people immune to the regular strain. The second part is the critical one, however.
Are you sure about that? It is said that the new strain can enter the cells more easily and thus creates higher viral load. Also, I'd imagine that if vaccines still work with this variant, why wouldn't people immune by having had the other version of covid be also at least somewhat immune to this one? Your explanation doesn't make sense to me.
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  #19677  
Old 16.01.2021, 15:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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you are too optimistic regarding vaccines
Well we have to be optimistic over vaccines as at this moment in time they’re our only chance of getting out of this cycle of pointless mask mandates and harmful and pointless lockdowns. Why do you think this optimism is misguided?
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  #19678  
Old 16.01.2021, 15:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well we have to be optimistic over vaccines as at this moment in time they’re our only chance of getting out of this cycle of pointless mask mandates and harmful and pointless lockdowns. Why do you think this optimism is misguided?
I read him as it's gonna take a long time, realistically. Maybe I read him wrong.
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  #19679  
Old 16.01.2021, 15:41
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Re: Coronavirus

Has anyone else received an invitation to participate in COH-FIT, the world's allegedly largest study of physical and psychological health in Covid times? Got a letter from Uni Basel today saying that I had been randomly selected. It is a 35 min questionnaire, had a quick look and it is endless questions about comparing your health situation to pre-Covid times.

I will probably not submit this, but going through the questions I realized that I personally feel just as good or bad as before Covid.
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  #19680  
Old 16.01.2021, 18:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well we have to be optimistic over vaccines as at this moment in time they’re our only chance of getting out of this cycle of pointless mask mandates and harmful and pointless lockdowns. Why do you think this optimism is misguided?
because as soon as we start to see light at the end of the tunnel with vaccines, suddenly new mutations appears on horizon, suggesting that vaccines will be useless or less efficient
then, information that vaccine lasts 5 month only appears, meaning that every 5-6 month whole world should do revaccination (multiplying it on number deadly mutations)
<conspiracy theories mode on>I have a feeling that some drive this on purpose<conspiracy theories mode off>
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