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  #41  
Old 17.11.2020, 17:10
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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Your proposal to use a centralised authority is fine, except blockchain is absolutely pointless unless it is decentralised. With a single authority blockchain has zero security and massive costs.
You should tell Zuckerberg and the Libra Association immediately. As well as China with its DCEP.
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  #42  
Old 17.11.2020, 17:20
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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You should tell Zuckerberg and the Libra Association immediately. As well as China with its DCEP.
I don't need to, most of the original Libra participants have already given a clear message by walking away
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  #43  
Old 18.11.2020, 00:33
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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This is not the reason blockchain is slow. It is slow because it demands proof-of-work which has to be slow and costly to prevent chain hijacking.
Blockchain is slow because it’s a distributed ledger. Even without any security process in place would it be slow because of every single aspect of its design. Not a few percent but several magnitudes slower than a centralized system geared for speed. That’s really databases 101.
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  #44  
Old 23.11.2020, 10:34
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

Institutional investors getting in:

https://news.bitcoin.com/coinbase-20...nal-investors/
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  #45  
Old 23.11.2020, 10:41
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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Institutional investors getting in:

https://news.bitcoin.com/coinbase-20...nal-investors/
Most of the rise is not additional investment, it's the change in price. The assets under custody........
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Old 23.11.2020, 10:45
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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its at 15k CHF today.

What is pretty amazing, use cases or not, is how it keeps going up. Its like its own dot com bubble. The people into it are completely convinced it will change the world so keep telling each other its more and more valuable. Either it is, and it will work, or it isnt and if its the latter it will all come crashing down.

I think there are real use cases - mainly in the area of audit rather than financial transactions - but i look in wonder at the price. someone told me to buy one at 5000 chf saying it was "a bargain" and now its 15k (I didnt of course!!!) but if you ask him he is completely, totally, convinced it will get to a million in the next few years.
I think bitcoin is a more extreme version of gold.

- Limited reserves and limited supply but even more limited as production rate is capped unlike for gold where you could open new mines
- Limited uses: gold has uses in industry and jewellry but a lot is as a store of wealth. Bitcoin has some technical uses. Both in theory could be used as a medium of exchange but doesn't make sense for either. Both are essentially just stores of wealth.

The limited new supply means demand quickly ramps prices up and down. The big unknown is how liquid are early quantities of bitcoin a lot may be lost or HODLed - to me that seems the biggest potential thing that could push prices down.
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  #47  
Old 23.11.2020, 10:50
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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Most of the rise is not additional investment, it's the change in price. The assets under custody........
Exactly - this is what financial institutions post on their advertising websites if it looks good...

Internally they use net new money (i.e. new investments) which is a much more sensible measure.

If Bitcoin were being consistent and really thought BTC was a new currency, they'd admit this is all basically due to FX movement (change in value vs dollar). Which taking it a step further makes their USD costs go up, USD revenue go down, and not on the whole a good thing.
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  #48  
Old 05.02.2021, 00:32
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

Interesting article ...

In the great game of the world economy, the final boss victory for crypto would be to rob nation-states of the ability to issue legitimate money – at least, that would be the libertarian win condition

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypt...160513838.html
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  #49  
Old 05.02.2021, 11:54
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

Inevitably any crypto/bitcoin discussion goes off the rails with staunch defenders on both sides. Ultimately it's each person's individual opinion and speculation on the future of crypto/bitcoin

What I can offer to this discussion is a great discussion on the Grant Williams podcast where Nic Carter and Mike Green go head to head in a healthy, respectful debate

https://www.grant-williams.com/podca...nd-nic-carter/

still a lot of open questions after listening but also a lot of good arguments on both sides

as I suggested on another thread, I think holding 1% of my portfolio in bitcoin is reasonable because I do see a lot of the upside. It is the only digital good that is limited in supply and that in itself in an age of abundance and zero marginal cost on the internet is quite an achievement
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  #50  
Old 09.02.2021, 15:18
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

for those not following the news cycle

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55939972

and Michael Saylor's forum to "educate" CEO/CFO how to add bitcoin to the balance sheet had 700 mid-size corporations attending... are we seeing a shift to more institutional investors?

(current price $45k)
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  #51  
Old 09.02.2021, 17:34
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

Not sure why Tesla would get any value in Bitcoin - if they can't invest $1.5bn in something revenue generating you've got to question their growth strategy.

On the other hand Musk kept getting sued for manipulating his own share price through Twitter, so maybe he wants to live on the edge with something else.

Interesting Switzerland angle - as of 2019 Bitcoin used the same amount of energy: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48853230 - maybe good for Tesla's energy division, not so great for global warming though.
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  #52  
Old 09.02.2021, 18:03
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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Not sure why Tesla would get any value in Bitcoin - if they can't invest $1.5bn in something revenue generating you've got to question their growth strategy.
to me it goes beyond the fact they bought bitcoin . to me there are 2 stories here:
1. tesla is holding bitcoin as a store of value vs other assets and as a diversification strategy vs equities, gold, whatever else

2. they accept bitcoin as a form of payment (under certain conditions). this I think is more of a marketing ploy
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  #53  
Old 09.02.2021, 19:33
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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to me it goes beyond the fact they bought bitcoin . to me there are 2 stories here:
1. tesla is holding bitcoin as a store of value vs other assets and as a diversification strategy vs equities, gold, whatever else

2. they accept bitcoin as a form of payment (under certain conditions). this I think is more of a marketing ploy
I think the first one is also a PR coup. Tesla managed to grab the headlines and we all talk about their investment. You know what news we therefore don’t talk about?

1. Tesla Meeting the Chinese authorities about their poor build quality of the Chinese made Model 3s. Tesla is losing momentum in the world’s largest economy and that is a problem which is worth way more than the 1.5B..

2. Tesla announced “massive delays” in setting up their European Gigafactory near Berlin. Also much more important for their stock price than 1.5 B USD...

I don’t give investment advice but Musk looks more and more like a conman to be. A very very rich conman.
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  #54  
Old 09.02.2021, 20:48
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

Your points are well made. My point however is this the tipping point for mass crypto adoption. Regardless what anyone thinks about Elon or Tesla he does have reach to influence and trigger crypto going more mainstream and that was the point I was making in a roundabout way
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  #55  
Old 09.02.2021, 23:14
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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to me it goes beyond the fact they bought bitcoin . to me there are 2 stories here:
1. tesla is holding bitcoin as a store of value vs other assets and as a diversification strategy vs equities, gold, whatever else

2. they accept bitcoin as a form of payment (under certain conditions). this I think is more of a marketing ploy
I never realised Tesla was supposed to be an investment fund. FWIW They had net debt of 5.48 billion on 28 July 20 .
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Old 10.02.2021, 09:44
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

once again not defending TSLA... the topic is "Mass adoption crypto" and I was offering what could potentially be a tipping point since TSLA and Elon specifically are constantly in the news cycle

maybe he is playing a different game and wants to get everyone into bitcoin mining so they buy the tesla solar panels

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They had net debt of 5.48 billion on 28 July 20 .
they did do a $5B capital raise - money is cheap today... and they have 19.4B in cash and equivalents
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Old 10.02.2021, 09:51
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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they did do a $5B capital raise - money is cheap today... and they have 19.4B in cash and equivalents
I was quoting net of debt.

Profits for the whole of 2020 were $721 million, which puts into perspective the crazy level of gearing going on here.
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  #58  
Old 10.02.2021, 10:17
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

I seriously hope crypto (at least in the current blockchain form) is never widely adopted, for environmental reasons. Using electricity deliberately to implement security is a poor and selfish design.

If by mass adoption you mean a significant proportion of global payments being done through Bitcoin, what does that mean in practice.

Let's say global Bitcoin transactions matched just Swiss card payments - so 1.3bn transactions per year, or 3.6m per day.

Current Bitcoin transactions for February (average) is 330000 per day.

So the rate of global transactions needs to increase by x11 just to match Swiss card payment volume.

What does that mean in environmental terms? Based on current electricity consumption being 0.56% of global usage, Bitcoin would then be using 6% of all global electricity.

IMO anyone who encourages this should be ashamed of themselves.

Also interesting is just how secure it is (or not). Everyone assumes that gaining a big enough miner majority to subvert Bitcoin is not feasible - but look at this map. 65% of mining happens in China... Is anyone really confident that the Chinese government doesn't / couldn't control that?
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Old 10.02.2021, 10:29
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

I don't disagree (or don't understand enough) about energy consumption - there is certainly a lot of back and forth on this topic on twitter. about transaction speed you are 100% correct and that's why we start to see some use cases around the lightning network. strike being the one with most traction at the moment

but just as humans struggle to understand exponentials, compounding and really big numbers, I also think humans struggle to understand the power of network effects early on

just read this by Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman in 1998 (at the tipping point of the Internet). He was already at MIT at the time where he had more than enough access to understand the power of the internet


The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law” — which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants — becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.
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Old 10.02.2021, 10:29
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Re: Mass adoption crypto

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I never realised Tesla was supposed to be an investment fund. FWIW They had net debt of 5.48 billion on 28 July 20 .
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...S_SUPPLEMENTAR

by the end of the year, seems debt was around ~14bn and cash around 19bn.

honestly, with the outrageous share price, they should just be raising as much capital as they can and cash in. the dilution would be minimal.
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