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  #21  
Old 24.01.2022, 16:51
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

One angle with climate change is that the rate of change is looking faster in the Alps than elsewhere.


It's already a subject of research and scenarios / forecast, you can see some Swiss scenarios at nccs.admin.ch
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  #22  
Old 24.01.2022, 17:17
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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I'd say there are a few megatrends for CH:

1. Erosion of banking secrecy and reporting requirements
2. Changes to the international tax system that limits multinationals use of low tax jurisdictions for tax planning
3. Remote working trend putting additional pressure to offshore to lower cost locations
For debate

1. Been there, done that. AEI as been in place for years now and not expecting much of a further impact. IMO the erosion of net interest margins has hurt bigger banks far more than banking secrecy. Probably a different story for the small privately held banks. They now have to compete on service.

2. More your area than mine, but I thought the overall rate in Switzerland (different rates in different cantons yada yada) was only slightly under the 15% OECD minimum? Might stop new companies moving in, but is it really worth the existing ones moving out? Particularly given the other benefits we are told Switzerland has - innovation, business friendly environment etc

3. Feels to me like the low hanging fruit and the fruit half way up the tree has been picked here. I'd expect marginal change here and a far bigger impact to come from digitalisation/automation/robotics
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  #23  
Old 24.01.2022, 18:11
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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Lol, absolutely brilliant picture, swisspea

What about living in present Switzerland more and hang around on social media less?
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  #24  
Old 25.01.2022, 10:44
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

Very interesting thread. Indeed no one has a crystal ball and I can only comment as an outsider who is not in Switzerland but contemplating relocating my affairs there.

If history is an indicator, CH has been very forward thinking namely in terms of adopting neutrality and avoiding war (going back several centuries); adopting policies to cash in on trends when there's chaos going all around. For example banking secrecy in the 1930s, EU bilaterals to compensate for non-membership, and in recent years embracing crypto and being a forerunner in this space.

So CH knows how to prepare for the unknown future better than many other places in the world.

Sure banking secrecy has more or less been disappearing for some years now, but again, this is a pragmatic approach by CH in that there is recognition that this is no longer strategic for the country. In turn CH innovates with other products/services to still maintain a sort of banking status-quo while improving on transparency.


Where there could be issues in the coming years:

1. Switzerland may be miscalculating the EU and external global pressures and there could be increasing obligations to comply against will and thus forcing a much wider change in society.
2. Climate Change - i.e. mountains/glaciers melting, causing widespread liveability/land issues
3. Food Security - CH being landlocked and limited in terms of agricultural production compared with say the neighboring countries could end up with future supply chain shocks that is currently being experienced in other parts of the world.
4. Reputation Risk: sure CH labelled goods have premium pricing for perceived quality, but are CH products really that much superior to goods that are produced in other EU states or China for example? Will CH be able to continue to command premium pricing or will the world simply decide that comparable goods produced elsewhere provide the same level of satisfaction.
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  #25  
Old 25.01.2022, 11:03
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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For debate

1. Been there, done that. AEI as been in place for years now and not expecting much of a further impact. IMO the erosion of net interest margins has hurt bigger banks far more than banking secrecy. Probably a different story for the small privately held banks. They now have to compete on service.

2. More your area than mine, but I thought the overall rate in Switzerland (different rates in different cantons yada yada) was only slightly under the 15% OECD minimum? Might stop new companies moving in, but is it really worth the existing ones moving out? Particularly given the other benefits we are told Switzerland has - innovation, business friendly environment etc

3. Feels to me like the low hanging fruit and the fruit half way up the tree has been picked here. I'd expect marginal change here and a far bigger impact to come from digitalisation/automation/robotics
on #2: i think combined with the lower corporate rate in the US, I think a lot of US outbounds would re-think their presence in Switzerland. I know several that were brought over by tax advisers for tax reasons better access to the European markets, but were really not happy with the operational constraints they had. the question of whether it is worth it will crop up, esp. as there is continual work in keeping up with all the latest rules dreamed up in the US and globally.

3. I agree on the digitalisation aspect and had intended to roll all of that together. i see a lot of well paid financial roles disappearing. i'm still shocked by how many jobs i see are just people extracting data from a system, putting it in excel and twiddling it a bit before putting it into another system or a power point slide.

another item is whether the extraordinary monetary policy of recent years is going to come back to bite Switzerland in the future. though compared to other countries, it may well still be the least ugly.
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  #26  
Old 25.01.2022, 13:14
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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3. A swiftly aging society. We will all get a lot older than before and will have far less children. While it is easy to predict that jobs in elderly care will be safe is it far harder to predict what this will do to a political system like the Swiss one. My prediction is that the country will overall become even more conservative and it will become nearly impossible to change things like retirement rules in a democratic way. The older generation of baby boomers has screwed over my generation badly and I predict that my generation will probably be even worse to the coming one... and with the predicted aging will there be little the young people can do about it. How this will effect Switzerlands position in the world, its competitive advantages and so on is extremly hard to predict.
This is a problem everywhere in Europe. I can´t see an upper age limit for voting being introduced though.
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  #27  
Old 02.01.2023, 12:32
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

Almost all pension fund in 2022 becomes underfunded, meaning that their asset can not cover their liability. In 2050, old ages will try to find where their retirement money is.
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  #28  
Old 02.01.2023, 14:30
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

It's all gone to sh!t

Name:  2023-01-02 13_27_08-L'alcool désormais limité pendant la chasse à Neuchâtel - 20 minutes.jpg
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  #29  
Old 02.01.2023, 14:55
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

Some interesting discussions in this thread. If I may offer some perspectives:


1) While the population is aging rapidly, work migration into Switzerland is fairly high compared to other countries. Japan being an opposite case example. I still predict a general aging of the pyramid tree, but I think the repercussions that might be seen elsewhere would be mitigated.


2) The EU is absolutely going to continue pressuring Switzerland. You only have to visit Reddit threads about Europe to see how many people talk about assimilating Switzerland without regards to the opinions of Swiss people. Perhaps that's a cherry-picked group that doesn't reflect general sentiment, but I don't think it will get easier.



Oddly enough, the U.K. also being outside the EU now may help Switzerland. In the future, as more countries apply and join the EU, political pressure would mount for Switzerland. The U.K. is unlikely to rejoin any time soon, and could serve both an ally and bigger distraction for politicians trying to score points.


3) The economy will just keep pushing ahead, not growing as fast as some may want, but never really falling that far behind. The base of the system is so strong that I really struggle to understand what could knock it off-track in relation to other economies. Though as J.K. Galbraith once said, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable," so don't put a lot of weight on that prediction.


4) Climate change is going to ruin ski season. This year is already off to a bad start, so I can't imagine 20+ years from now.
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  #30  
Old 02.01.2023, 22:35
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

9th million inhabitant expected 2023.

https://www.20min.ch/story/2023-wird...n-131032778502
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  #31  
Old 02.01.2023, 23:33
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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Almost all pension fund in 2022 becomes underfunded, meaning that their asset can not cover their liability. In 2050, old ages will try to find where their retirement money is.
DC pension funds can't be underfunded. That is why we move to them...
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  #32  
Old 03.01.2023, 00:01
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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9th million inhabitant expected 2023.

https://www.20min.ch/story/2023-wird...n-131032778502
Not really, that article is not even hot air.
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  #33  
Old 03.01.2023, 00:40
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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Some interesting discussions in this thread. If I may offer some perspectives:

1) While the population is aging rapidly, work migration into Switzerland is fairly high compared to other countries. Japan being an opposite case example. I still predict a general aging of the pyramid tree, but I think the repercussions that might be seen elsewhere would be mitigated.

2) The EU is absolutely going to continue pressuring Switzerland. You only have to visit Reddit threads about Europe to see how many people talk about assimilating Switzerland without regards to the opinions of Swiss people. Perhaps that's a cherry-picked group that doesn't reflect general sentiment, but I don't think it will get easier.

Oddly enough, the U.K. also being outside the EU now may help Switzerland. In the future, as more countries apply and join the EU, political pressure would mount for Switzerland. The U.K. is unlikely to rejoin any time soon, and could serve both an ally and bigger distraction for politicians trying to score points.

3) The economy will just keep pushing ahead, not growing as fast as some may want, but never really falling that far behind. The base of the system is so strong that I really struggle to understand what could knock it off-track in relation to other economies. Though as J.K. Galbraith once said, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable," so don't put a lot of weight on that prediction.

4) Climate change is going to ruin ski season. This year is already off to a bad start, so I can't imagine 20+ years from now.
Never fear 'The honourable Jacob Rees-Mogg MP' will be our saviour and save us from being assimilated by the EU - Borg Collective ! ! !


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  #34  
Old 03.01.2023, 10:16
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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9th million inhabitant expected 2023.

https://www.20min.ch/story/2023-wird...n-131032778502

What will number 9 mill look like? Will he, she or other get a prize?
Perhaps make it on the cover of Swiss Illustrated?
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Old 03.01.2023, 10:32
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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9th million inhabitant expected 2023.

https://www.20min.ch/story/2023-wird...n-131032778502
Increase all due to immigration - but: a US friend works at Google Zurich. Since the pandemic they work 100% from home, fully approved by Google.

My question was “why can’t you work 100% from your real home?” (USA). The answer was that the Swiss life-style was preferred.

Clearly if Google (and other companies) can avoid the expense of moving personnel to Switzerland, they will let them work 100% in their home country. (Doesn’t apply to the construction industry, but with less white-collar immigration there will be less construction)…
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  #36  
Old 03.01.2023, 11:18
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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What will number 9 mill look like? Will he, she or other get a prize?
Perhaps make it on the cover of Swiss Illustrated?
10x Cumulus Points
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  #37  
Old 03.01.2023, 11:29
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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Increase all due to immigration - but: a US friend works at Google Zurich. Since the pandemic they work 100% from home, fully approved by Google.

My question was “why can’t you work 100% from your real home?” (USA). The answer was that the Swiss life-style was preferred.

Clearly if Google (and other companies) can avoid the expense of moving personnel to Switzerland, they will let them work 100% in their home country. (Doesn’t apply to the construction industry, but with less white-collar immigration there will be less construction)…

Big international American companies don't set up business here for the Swiss lifestyle. They do it for the money. Switzerland is the place to instantly transfer large sums of moolah from one country to another. Also not to mention the tax benefits. Swiss culture and ETH recruitment are side shows.
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  #38  
Old 03.01.2023, 11:39
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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9th million inhabitant expected 2023.

https://www.20min.ch/story/2023-wird...n-131032778502
doesn't sound sustainable or good for the environment
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  #39  
Old 03.01.2023, 11:42
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

Methinks one of the Problems CH will face in the mid to long term is, as mentioned, an over aging of the population resulting in increased migration.
As we are seeing in Germany the gain of having more persons paying into the system will be offset by migrants not wanting to take their part in the “German.. or Swiss… dream”
Disfranchised and without any convertible skills they will tear the country apart.
Just look at how the German authorities are shell-shocked after the new -year riots perpetrated by mainly young men from migrant backgrounds.
For the mostly conservative Swiss that would mean more powers to the already heavy hand of the law with all the consequences such a shift brings.
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  #40  
Old 03.01.2023, 12:00
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Re: What is the future of Switzerland?

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Big international American companies don't set up business here for the Swiss lifestyle. They do it for the money. Switzerland is the place to instantly transfer large sums of moolah from one country to another. Also not to mention the tax benefits. Swiss culture and ETH recruitment are side shows.
Quite so, but I was referring to the employees.

I can see a future with big international companies with a base or even HQ in Switzerland for tax reasons, but few employees here...
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