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  #321  
Old 08.02.2020, 22:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not judging, but am surprised at both of you.
You are not judging? I have friends who live in Singapore who have sent me photos of their local supermarket. Mass hysteria based on their photos as everyone is buying everything and stocking up!

We feel quite removed here in Switzerland but in Asia, my sense in HK, Singapore etc... fear is growing.

You may think people are "overreacting" but how can anyone trust any figure/toll coming from China?

Having lived in South East Asia for over 10 years, I suspect any news from China. "Saving face" is the cultural norm and duplicity matters not when saving face. Sad but very true!

Last edited by terrifisch; 08.02.2020 at 22:52.
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  #322  
Old 08.02.2020, 22:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still don't get the hysteria ..

China has a population of 1.4bn
35k cases reported (34.3k simply recovered)
730 deaths

I know it's a new strain but it's catching the cold. Is it really the apocalypse ?
Sure that’s if you can a) trust the figures coming out of China and b) believe that they have the facilities in place to test all those that display symptoms of the virus day by day.

This is the big question which I’ve not been able to answer yet, if it wasn’t that bad, then why is China taking such draconian steps to isolate everyone?
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  #323  
Old 08.02.2020, 23:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still don't get the hysteria ..

China has a population of 1.4bn
35k cases reported (34.3k simply recovered)
730 deaths

I know it's a new strain but it's catching the cold. Is it really the apocalypse ?
1st thing is that the numbers cant be trusted, due to lack of testing ability and China lying to save face both domestically and abroad.
Govt sources in China say that ca. 2,000 have recovered. Which means a large % of the other 32.3k could still die. Also 6000+ of these are reported to be serious or critical. And forget about health care- in some areas they are rounding up infected people to take to 'sick camps' and in others authorities are locking people in their homes. Chemicals are being sprayed on city streets. Cell phone assembly lines are being converted to produce face masks and hazmat suits. The economy has been reduced to 10%.

Its not just some 'new strain' of the flu or the common cold, but a highly contagious virus that we have zero evolved immunity against.
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  #324  
Old 08.02.2020, 23:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sure that’s if you can a) trust the figures coming out of China and b) believe that they have the facilities in place to test all those that display symptoms of the virus day by day.

This is the big question which I’ve not been able to answer yet, if it wasn’t that bad, then why is China taking such draconian steps to isolate everyone?
It's good to take steps. And to your b) - they don't, that seems to be the main problem and maybe why they lock up entire cities (which I doubt would be possible in Europe).

The thing is, so far in a huge country like China, less people died of the Coronavirus than people dying of the "yearly flu" in Germany each year (2000-3000 apparently). Shouldn't they be mourned as much as the Chinese?
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  #325  
Old 08.02.2020, 23:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still don't get the hysteria ..

China has a population of 1.4bn
35k cases reported (34.3k simply recovered)
730 deaths

I know it's a new strain but it's catching the cold. Is it really the apocalypse ?
It is because many different scenario's are still possible.

There are good scenario's where this disease can be contained and the spread stops, some more people die, we find a cure and all be sort of fine.

There are bad scenario's where this disease spreads much more than it did, and beyond doubt it will do so unless a lot of measurements are being put in place like limiting human traffic, but if it would start spreading in much poorer countries with an almost total lack of a healthcare system and without the means of doing huge containment needed like India or Lagos the numbers would indeed run wild, and one superspreader on a busy day in Venice could put half of Europe on lockdown two weeks later.

We simply know to little to take the risk of underestimating it yet, and China cannot be trusted with the numbers and the info which complicates it even more. The official numbers say currently confirmed 34,963, of which 725 died and 2,394 recovered (not the 34.3K you speak of.) But in like an hour the numbers will get the daily update, and since the beginning nobody besides Chinese governmental people said these numbers can be trusted.
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  #326  
Old 08.02.2020, 23:38
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Re: Coronavirus

"We simply know to little to take the risk of underestimating it yet, and China cannot be trusted with the numbers and the info which complicates it even more. The official numbers say currently confirmed 34,963, of which 725 died and 2,394 recovered (not the 34.3K you speak of.) But in like an hour the numbers will get the daily update, and since the beginning nobody besides Chinese governmental people said these numbers can be trusted."


I second this! I also think this "virus" was man made as a biotech research facility operated very close to WuHan. I typically do not buy into conspiracy theories but something is amiss with reports from China...
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  #327  
Old 08.02.2020, 23:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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I also think this "virus" was man made as a biotech research facility operated very close to WuHan. I typically do not buy into conspiracy theories but something is amiss with reports from China...
I believe we'll never know, but it is a real possibility, China however will never ever admit such, I also believe China should not have class 4 Labs for diseases, those things can only reach acceptable safety in an open society where people are encouraged to report every mistake they make without the fear of harsh punishments so that procedures can be updated and all can learn from the mistake.
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  #328  
Old 08.02.2020, 23:47
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Re: Coronavirus

2 British families have been quarantined, 5 declared as Coronavirus contaminated, very close to Megève, itself close to Geneva. Full article here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/hunt-for-coronavirus-victims-as-trail-leads-from-singapore-to-uk-and-france
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  #329  
Old 09.02.2020, 00:28
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Re: Coronavirus

If it came out that the virus indeed stems from a lab and had subsequently escaped, that would be very bad. Bad for Chinese politicians, but also for everyone else. But this will never be officially admitted, and here's why:

It would be a bit like a Fukushima-moment, that showed the world that while nuclear power is principally safe, you cannot trust governments or corporations with keeping it safe.

There would be a big pressure to end this kind of research. Probably successful in the end. Like with nuclear power after Fukushima.

But research in this field is always a double-edged sword. It's defensive (trying to find cures for weaponized bio-agents) and offensive (coming up with more deadly ones) more or less at the same time. You cannot have the one without the other.

So politicians and military don't really want to stop, for fear that somebody else might not stop and have the upper hand at some point.

Now that the world has seen and knows just how powerful such a weapon can be, I predict we will even see a renaissance in this kind of research, with more money being put into this sector than ever before.

We've all seen the Bond movie "On Her Majesty's Secret Service", where a villain tries to bring the world to its knees with a virus.
Or variations of this theme in later years (and maybe earlier - but this is the one I remember).

Well, it's 2020 and it turns out you can actually bring the world to its knees exactly as in a movie.

Last edited by rainer_d; 09.02.2020 at 02:05.
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  #330  
Old 09.02.2020, 00:46
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Re: Coronavirus

I also am curious when we'll see it confirmed hitting Africa which currently simply lacks test kits, and is in no way prepared to handle an outbreak, they might already have hundreds of patients walking around and simply being completely unaware.

EDIT:

Looked for articles, here is a nice one: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/08/...w-coronavirus/
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  #331  
Old 09.02.2020, 06:58
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Re: Coronavirus

Much talk and fanfare and yet....2% death rate. Some people should have been more careful in school. I wonder if they were trying to create a virus that would target everyone below a certain IQ level. I think this would be a phenomenal solution to the worlds problems
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  #332  
Old 09.02.2020, 07:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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A box of 50 surgical masks costs 30 bucks at the moment, a small price to pay for peace of mind. Worst case I’ve got my Halloween costumes sorted for the next 10 years!
Assuming you make it that long
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  #333  
Old 09.02.2020, 10:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Much talk and fanfare and yet....2% death rate. Some people should have been more careful in school. I wonder if they were trying to create a virus that would target everyone below a certain IQ level. I think this would be a phenomenal solution to the worlds problems
-thinks a 2% death rate is no big deal while attempting to criticise other peoples' intelligence levels-

Joke's on you, pal!
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  #334  
Old 09.02.2020, 10:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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-thinks a 2% death rate is no big deal while attempting to criticise other peoples' intelligence levels-

Joke's on you, pal!
Life has 100% death rate.
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  #335  
Old 09.02.2020, 10:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Life has 100% death rate.
Comforting words to remember for those infected, whether they be dying from pneumonia or merely passing the virus on to friends,family,etc.

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  #336  
Old 09.02.2020, 11:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Much talk and fanfare and yet....2% death rate. Some people should have been more careful in school. I wonder if they were trying to create a virus that would target everyone below a certain IQ level. I think this would be a phenomenal solution to the worlds problems
Seems the number of deaths now exceeds the number of deaths from SARS over the same time period but the fatality rate is lower at 2% versus 9%; presumably, this virus is more infectious so catches more people.

Be careful out there.
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  #337  
Old 09.02.2020, 11:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Much talk and fanfare and yet....2% death rate. Some people should have been more careful in school. I wonder if they were trying to create a virus that would target everyone below a certain IQ level. I think this would be a phenomenal solution to the worlds problems
People who have been more careful in school write articles like this:

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At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude. Diagnosis of viral infection will precede recovery or death by days to weeks and the number of deaths should therefore be compared to the past case counts – accounting for this delay increasing the estimate of the case fatality rate. On the other hand, cases in official statistics are likely a severe underestimate of the total – accounting for this underestimate will decrease the case fatality rate. The time between diagnosis and death/recovery and the degree of underreporting will vary over time as well as between cities and countries. A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203
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  #338  
Old 09.02.2020, 11:44
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Re: Coronavirus

Normal flu kills 60,000 a year. Keep some perspective guys.

Last edited by Troublawesome; 09.02.2020 at 12:02. Reason: just fixing your number-typo
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  #339  
Old 09.02.2020, 11:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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People who have been more careful in school write articles like this:



https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203
A lot of "might be" in this article and this is part of the way to create noise in a already very noisy environment. The fact is, it's currently 2% and probably even lower simply due to the fact that the Chinese are absolutely certainly under reporting cases. Deaths outside China are even lower as a percentage.

Our human ability of overexpose "bad" news is always fun and sad to watch as we believe true risk is equal to amount of noise out there. Each one of us is free to perceive threats on their own, feel as worried as you want to be
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  #340  
Old 09.02.2020, 11:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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A lot of "might be" in this article and this is part of the way to create noise in a already very noisy environment. The fact is, it's currently 2% and probably even lower simply due to the fact that the Chinese are absolutely certainly under reporting cases. Deaths outside China are even lower as a percentage.

Our human ability of overexpose "bad" news is always fun and sad to watch as we believe true risk is equal to amount of noise out there. Each one of us is free to perceive threats on their own, feel as worried as you want to be
Yes a lot of might be, since that is exactly the point of that article, due to all the "might be's" there currently is no way to estimate a fatality rate for this virus. It could be much higher, it could be much lower. There is simply no way to tell yet.

But stating it has a 2% fatality rate is as dumb as stating it has a recovery rate of 7.67%
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