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  #5101  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:04
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Re: Coronavirus

Breaking news....68000 dead in Italy! From....seasonal flu between 2013 and 2017!

Well I guess it's not breaking news.

This scientific study shows us how much this Corona virus is pumped and hyped up.

2013/2014 - 7027
2014/2015 - 20259
2015/2016 - 15801
2016/2017 - 24881

So almost 25000 people died from seasonal flu in Italy in 2016/2017

Corona worldwide so far less than 20000 dead. Still less than 2016/2017 ONLY IN ITALY

If this is not a hype, I don't know what is

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...01971219303285
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  #5102  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona worldwide so far less than 20000 dead. Still less than 2016/2017 ONLY IN ITALY

If this is not a hype, I don't know what is
How many would it be without any lockdown? Still 20,000? A little bit more?

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If this is not a hype, I don't know what is
You don't know what is.
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  #5103  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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How many would it be without any lockdown? Still 20,000? A little bit more?
Swiss infectiologist believes the lockdown is a political decision and not a scientific

https://www.tagblatt.ch/leben/ostsch...end-ld.1206440

He also believes it is a mistake to close the school and not make kids immune to the disease.

Sweden on the other hand is doing just fine compared to its neighbors who are in lock down
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  #5104  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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He also believes it is a mistake to close the school and not make kids immune to the disease.
What about the kids with asthma or a weaken immune system?

What about the children with existing health problems of which they and their parents are unaware?
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Old 25.03.2020, 15:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona worldwide so far less than 20000 dead.


https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...01971219303285

The way to count death rate due to Coronavirus still differs between countries, so I'm not 100% sure about the reported number, especially a large part of it comes from China.


Plus, I'm wondering if people have checked if the death rates due to other sicknesses also increase during this pandemic? I guess it should increase a lot as most of the hospitals are now flooded with corona patients. This effect should be included in the big picture.
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  #5106  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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What about the kids with asthma or a weaken immune system?

What about the children with existing health problems of which they and their parents are unaware?
They would be exposed to the virus the same way that they would be exposed to an eventual vaccine
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  #5107  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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They would be exposed to the virus the same way that they would be exposed to an eventual vaccine
Is that really your understand about vaccines?

Anyway putting all children back in schools means all parents will also get maximum exposure to the virus and they are not as robust as their children according to current data.

When the hospitals are full (which in your scenario, would be very quickly), how many parents would die then after being turned away?
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  #5108  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Breaking news....68000 dead in Italy! From....seasonal flu between 2013 and 2017!

Well I guess it's not breaking news.

This scientific study shows us how much this Corona virus is pumped and hyped up.

2013/2014 - 7027
2014/2015 - 20259
2015/2016 - 15801
2016/2017 - 24881

So almost 25000 people died from seasonal flu in Italy in 2016/2017

Corona worldwide so far less than 20000 dead. Still less than 2016/2017 ONLY IN ITALY

If this is not a hype, I don't know what is

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...01971219303285
The definition of winter season is the period from week 40 to week 20 of the following year...32 weeks or 8 months. 25000/8 = 3125 per month during 2016/2017, 900 per month during 2013/2014 winter season.

Less than a month after the first few dead, there a 6820 dead in Italy, almost 5000 from Lombardy. It seems the new virus is twice as efficient as the seasonal flu of the peak winter season of 2016/2017.

Another way to interpret the numbers you kindly share is that in a few days the body count in Lombardy will be equal to the whole Italy during the 2013/2014 winter season. I wonder why so much hype.
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  #5109  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is that really your understand about vaccines?

Anyway putting all children back in schools means all parents will also get maximum exposure to the virus and they are not as robust as their children according to current data.

When the hospitals are full (which in your scenario, would be very quickly), how many parents would die then after being turned away?
How do you want them to work for people with preexisting conditions? The vaccine magically will make them immune or possibly give them side effects as well?

According to the Italian health institute the victims are:

Median age 80.5 years

10% of the deceased was over 90 years old;

90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.

At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.

Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.

Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).


https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav...7_marzo-v2.pdf

So not a lot of parents or kids will be affected Tom
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  #5110  
Old 25.03.2020, 15:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
Are you aware of how many 'fit and healthy' and not so old Americans or English have heart disease or other pre-existing conditions like diabetes?
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Old 25.03.2020, 16:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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They would be exposed to the virus the same way that they would be exposed to an eventual vaccine
If you really believe that a vaccin is nothing more or less than injecting people with a living virus than any discussion with you is a huge waste of time.
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Old 25.03.2020, 16:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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How do you want them to work for people with preexisting conditions? The vaccine magically will make them immune or possibly give them side effects as well?

According to the Italian health institute the victims are:

Median age 80.5 years

10% of the deceased was over 90 years old;

90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.

At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.

Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.

Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).


https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav...7_marzo-v2.pdf

So not a lot of parents or kids will be affected Tom
I don't think you are understanding Tom's point. Its a very simple equation of available ICU beds/ventilators versus sick patients.

Had it not been for Corona all these 70+ year olds would be at home with their families, now they're in hospitals and once these ICU beds are saturated people will be turned away or staff made to make life and death decision on who needs needs them more. That is a horrific situation to be in, we just need to look at Italy.

So yes isolation and closing schools is a heavy price to pay, but one thats worth it in my opinion.
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  #5113  
Old 25.03.2020, 16:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you aware of how many 'fit and healthy' and not so old Americans or English have heart disease or other pre-existing conditions like diabetes?
Only 5 of them were affected in Italy among hundred pf thousands of infected

So most people, even most of the vulnerable will survive. It won't be the end of the world
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  #5114  
Old 25.03.2020, 16:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't think you are understanding Tom's point. Its a very simple equation of available ICU beds/ventilators versus sick patients.

Had it not been for Corona all these 70+ year olds would be at home with their families, now they're in hospitals and once these ICU beds are saturated people will be turned away or staff made to make life and death decision on who needs needs them more. That is a horrific situation to be in, we just need to look at Italy.
Exactly.

This is an 'ICU' in Spain, now, with lock-down:



You don't have to look too closely to see that these are not elderly people.

What would this be like with no population control?
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  #5115  
Old 25.03.2020, 16:11
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From Italian data: for those aged 50-59 the death rate has been 1.1% (but many more get seriously ill with possible permanent lung damage)
Sorry, my mistake. 1.1% was for those under 50 y.o. For 50-59 y.o. it was 2.9% according to this:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav..._marzo_eng.pdf
But yeah, most deaths were with pre-existing conditions.
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Old 25.03.2020, 16:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't think you are understanding Tom's point. Its a very simple equation of available ICU beds/ventilators versus sick patients.

Had it not been for Corona all these 70+ year olds would be at home with their families, now they're in hospitals and once these ICU beds are saturated people will be turned away or staff made to make life and death decision on who needs needs them more. That is a horrific situation to be in, we just need to look at Italy.

So yes isolation and closing schools is a heavy price to pay, but one thats worth it in my opinion.
This is where you are wrong because you are saturated with Corona news and you see Corona in everything.

Italy's ICU units were collapsing even in 2018 due to the seasonal flu when they were in a similar chaotic situation, but nobody decided to close everything?

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/c...?refresh_ce-cp
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Old 25.03.2020, 16:14
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-not-priority
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Old 25.03.2020, 16:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is where you are wrong because you are saturated with Corona news and you see Corona in everything.

Italy's ICU units were collapsing even in 2018 due to the seasonal flu when they were in a similar chaotic situation, but nobody decided to close everything?

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/c...?refresh_ce-cp
Ah yes, the great flu season of 2018 when they also every night had a long row of army trucks to transport bodies to other places due to lack of capacity.. oh wait....
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Old 25.03.2020, 16:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Italy's ICU units were collapsing even in 2018 due to the seasonal flu when they were in a similar chaotic situation, but nobody decided to close everything?

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/c...?refresh_ce-cp
Come on man are you seriously still, even with all the data we now have available, comparing this to Flu?

COV is not flu. COV is around 2x or more contagious and multiple times (up to 10x I believe depending on age) more deadly.

To compare it to Flu in the context of why the reaction and handling is different is simply either ignorant or disingenuous.
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  #5120  
Old 25.03.2020, 16:23
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Come on man are you seriously still, even with all the data we now have available, comparing this to Flu?

COV is not flu. COV is around 2x or more contagious and multiple times (up to 10x I believe depending on age) more deadly.

To compare it to Flu in the context of why the reaction and handling is different is simply either ignorant or disingenuous.
Read the numbers I left, Flu is far more deadly than COV

Just because you are bombarded with COV news doesn't make it more dangerous or deadly

20000 people died so far from COV in the entire world

2017 in Italy ONLY 25000 people died from flu

But I guess people like to be scared and panic rather than read actual numbers and scientific reports
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