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  #5601  
Old 29.03.2020, 14:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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I personally I'm against the panic caused from this virus. I see large part of the current mess is caused by the panic and not the virus itself

I'm not downplaying the virus, we have it in a similar form every year, but we don't panic and handle it much better.

If people weren't stockpiling masks and medical supplies doctors in Italy would have been much better prepared and wouldn't be exposed as they are now

We were reading the news in China when they were building hospitals in 10 days yet we didn't prepare in any way in Europe. Nobody said "let's stockpile medical supplies just in case"

2 months later panic snowballed and escalated the situation and now it's the virus's fault. It isn't
This is not the flu, can you please stop spreading such horrible, stupid lies? Swiss hospitals are never swamped during flu season. They are now. The hospital were I work is moving all the orthopedics patients to some out of the way corner because they need more beds for internal medicine. Pediatricians are being called in to take care of adult patients. Ophtalmologists are currently working in internal medicine wards treating pneumonia. As are dermatologists, gynecologists, and probably soon even psychiatrists. Every single hospital in Switzerland has closed as much of their OR as they can to free ventilators and staff. The CHUV has transformed one entire floor of operating rooms into additional ICU beds. THIS IS NOT THE FLU!!!!! The mortality rate is higher, the complication rate is higher. We have a flu epidemic every. single. year. and never have we needed to take such measures. The wave has not hit, patients dying today were diagnosed before the half assed lockdown we're living now. We will most likely sadly see hundreds of deaths per day in the coming weeks. We had 170 deaths 48 hours ago, we are now at 275 and most cantons still haven't communicated the numbers for today.
We are going to need beds, oxygen, ventilators, tubing, nurses, doctors, gowns, masks, gloves, everything. The wave is going to hit, make no mistake. The fact it hasn't yet is just giving us more time to move patients out of the hospital, open old wards that were left unattended for decaded and build literal tents in the hospital parking lots for testing. But just because people aren't dying en masse yet doesn't mean they won't.
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  #5602  
Old 29.03.2020, 14:34
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Re: Coronavirus

Another interesting fact, now that countries started mass testing.

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Germany’s initial testing criteria were no wider than Italy’s. People were tested if they had symptoms and had been to a risk area, or if they had contact with a confirmed case. But many initial cases had clear links to overseas travel.

The guidelines have since been expanded, and testing has been boosted in recent weeks. The number tested jumped from 35,000 in the first week of March to 100,000 in the second, according to Germany’s medical association. The estimates don’t include tests conducted inside hospitals.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...b51_story.html

While the tests numbers tripled in Germany, new infected numbers are staying the same.

When they were testing 35k people, numbers were in the 4-5k new cases everyday

When they are testing more than 100k, new numbers are 5-6k new cases everyday
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  #5603  
Old 29.03.2020, 14:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is not the flu, can you please stop spreading such horrible, stupid lies?
Don't feed the troll. But do keep telling us what's going on the front line.
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  #5604  
Old 29.03.2020, 14:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is not the flu, can you please stop spreading such horrible, stupid lies? Swiss hospitals are never swamped during flu season. They are now. The hospital were I work is moving all the orthopedics patients to some out of the way corner because they need more beds for internal medicine. Pediatricians are being called in to take care of adult patients. Ophtalmologists are currently working in internal medicine wards treating pneumonia. As are dermatologists, gynecologists, and probably soon even psychiatrists. Every single hospital in Switzerland has closed as much of their OR as they can to free ventilators and staff. The CHUV has transformed one entire floor of operating rooms into additional ICU beds. THIS IS NOT THE FLU!!!!! The mortality rate is higher, the complication rate is higher. We have a flu epidemic every. single. year. and never have we needed to take such measures. The wave has not hit, patients dying today were diagnosed before the half assed lockdown we're living now. We will most likely sadly see hundreds of deaths per day in the coming weeks. We had 170 deaths 48 hours ago, we are now at 275 and most cantons still haven't communicated the numbers for today.
We are going to need beds, oxygen, ventilators, tubing, nurses, doctors, gowns, masks, gloves, everything. The wave is going to hit, make no mistake. The fact it hasn't yet is just giving us more time to move patients out of the hospital, open old wards that were left unattended for decaded and build literal tents in the hospital parking lots for testing. But just because people aren't dying en masse yet doesn't mean they won't.
While we wait for the wave, Ticino's numbers from today improve compared from Saturday

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Légère baisse des décès au Tessin

Une légère flexion des décès dus au Covid-19 a été enregistrée dimanche au Tessin, où six personnes sont mortes depuis samedi, contre 11 entre vendredi et samedi. Au total, depuis le 25 février dernier, 93 personnes ont perdu la vie à cause de l'épidémie et 1837 personnes ont été contaminées, soit une augmentation de 110 cas en 24 heures.
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  #5605  
Old 29.03.2020, 14:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is not the flu, can you please stop spreading such horrible, stupid lies? Swiss hospitals are never swamped during flu season. They are now. The hospital were I work is moving all the orthopedics patients to some out of the way corner because they need more beds for internal medicine. Pediatricians are being called in to take care of adult patients. Ophtalmologists are currently working in internal medicine wards treating pneumonia. As are dermatologists, gynecologists, and probably soon even psychiatrists. Every single hospital in Switzerland has closed as much of their OR as they can to free ventilators and staff. The CHUV has transformed one entire floor of operating rooms into additional ICU beds. THIS IS NOT THE FLU!!!!! The mortality rate is higher, the complication rate is higher. We have a flu epidemic every. single. year. and never have we needed to take such measures. The wave has not hit, patients dying today were diagnosed before the half assed lockdown we're living now. We will most likely sadly see hundreds of deaths per day in the coming weeks. We had 170 deaths 48 hours ago, we are now at 275 and most cantons still haven't communicated the numbers for today.
We are going to need beds, oxygen, ventilators, tubing, nurses, doctors, gowns, masks, gloves, everything. The wave is going to hit, make no mistake. The fact it hasn't yet is just giving us more time to move patients out of the hospital, open old wards that were left unattended for decaded and build literal tents in the hospital parking lots for testing. But just because people aren't dying en masse yet doesn't mean they won't.
We are cca 10 days behind CH in the Czech Rep. and the news there are saying to brace ourselves, the worst will come and last cca 5 weeks (the lightest scenario). But people don't leave homes there at all and are fined for not covering their mouths+noses if they do leave homes.
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  #5606  
Old 29.03.2020, 14:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is not the flu, can you please stop spreading such horrible, stupid lies? Swiss hospitals are never swamped during flu season. They are now. The hospital were I work is moving all the orthopedics patients to some out of the way corner because they need more beds for internal medicine. Pediatricians are being called in to take care of adult patients. Ophtalmologists are currently working in internal medicine wards treating pneumonia. As are dermatologists, gynecologists, and probably soon even psychiatrists. Every single hospital in Switzerland has closed as much of their OR as they can to free ventilators and staff. The CHUV has transformed one entire floor of operating rooms into additional ICU beds. THIS IS NOT THE FLU!!!!! The mortality rate is higher, the complication rate is higher. We have a flu epidemic every. single. year. and never have we needed to take such measures. The wave has not hit, patients dying today were diagnosed before the half assed lockdown we're living now. We will most likely sadly see hundreds of deaths per day in the coming weeks. We had 170 deaths 48 hours ago, we are now at 275 and most cantons still haven't communicated the numbers for today.
We are going to need beds, oxygen, ventilators, tubing, nurses, doctors, gowns, masks, gloves, everything. The wave is going to hit, make no mistake. The fact it hasn't yet is just giving us more time to move patients out of the hospital, open old wards that were left unattended for decaded and build literal tents in the hospital parking lots for testing. But just because people aren't dying en masse yet doesn't mean they won't.
The wave is going to hit, make no mistake.

The numbers are constant if less everyday. And its just conjecture to say the wave is going to hit. I could also say the wave has passed.

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  #5607  
Old 29.03.2020, 15:01
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Re: Coronavirus

I am personally looking ar this report (numbers are still at 15.03.2020)
https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home...ses-death.html
In a couple of weeks it should give us an indication whether it can be compared to a normal flu or not.

I tried to find similar charts/numbers from Lombardia since they are approx 2 weeks earlier, but could not find them.
All I could find are some info about the worst affected municipality in Bergamo which is Nembro.

I know there are villages which are not affected, and if we "average" these numbers over the entire region it will look better. But still it's telling what is the potential of this virus. Also we do not know why the impact seems to be so varied in different area.

In this municipality there have been 128 deaths (=> 12 months total for 2018). [1]
As of 24.03.2020 they have registered 158 deaths (=> first 3 months of 2020). [2]

Now, unless we assume that nobody will die in Nembro for the coming 9 months, we can say that in this municipality COVID-19 has not been "like a normal flu".

[1] https://ugeo.urbistat.com/AdminStat/...nembro/16144/4
[2] https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_...cdbe1130.shtml
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Old 29.03.2020, 15:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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for covid-19, it was found that rt-pcr testing sensitivity was only around 70%. meaning that you have about 30% false negative.
Apparently the test itself is pretty reliable, the issue is with the collection of the sample from the patient.

See https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ad-of-covid-19

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Andrew Preston, of Bath University, said that the PCR test was in itself very effective for detecting the virus but that that efficacy was dependent on how well healthcare workers took samples from patients, from the nose and the back of the throat.
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Old 29.03.2020, 15:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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The wave is going to hit, make no mistake.

The numbers are constant if less everyday. And its just conjecture to say the wave is going to hit. I could also say the wave has passed.

Attachment 139076
You forgot the asymptomatic incubation time of non-tested, positive people and those who will never show symptoms but are now shedding virus on those who will show up in your stats the next few days.
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  #5610  
Old 29.03.2020, 15:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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The wave is going to hit, make no mistake.

The numbers are constant if less everyday. And its just conjecture to say the wave is going to hit. I could also say the wave has passed.
The wave of critically ill patients I mean. I honestly don't care at all about asymptomatic carriers and people who just cough, have fever, muscle pain and fatigue for about a week. It takes about 10 days for patients to be ill enough to require a hospital bed and a few more days before they require an ICU bed. In all, the deadly course of the disease takes about 3 to 4 weeks. The wave has not hit the hospitals, but it will.


Do you know https://www.corona-data.ch/ ? They have a nice graph of the hospitalizations, it's terrifying.
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Old 29.03.2020, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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The wave of critically ill patients I mean. I honestly don't care at all about asymptomatic carriers and people who just cough, have fever, muscle pain and fatigue for about a week. It takes about 10 days for patients to be ill enough to require a hospital bed and a few more days before they require an ICU bed. In all, the deadly course of the disease takes about 3 to 4 weeks. The wave has not hit the hospitals, but it will.


Do you know https://www.corona-data.ch/ ? They have a nice graph of the hospitalizations, it's terrifying.
It's so terrifying that the empty Swiss hospitals are taking French nationals for treatment

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Solidarité suisse louée
Vingt patients français seront accueillis dans des hôpitaux en Suisse dimanche soir, a indiqué samedi soir l'ambassadeur de France en Suisse Frédéric Journes dans un tweet. Il remercie les cantons qui viennent ainsi en aide aux personnes malades au-delà des frontières nationales.
https://twitter.com/FJournes
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  #5612  
Old 29.03.2020, 15:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's so terrifying that the empty Swiss hospitals are taking French nationals for treatment
Why? What's more important: a line on a map or that they are human beings that need help.
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Old 29.03.2020, 15:21
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Re: Coronavirus

They have hundreds of patients in need of evacuation, we've accepted a handful. Makes us look and feel good, doesn't change much for us or them sadly at this point. Next week we probably wouldn't have been able to accept them.
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Old 29.03.2020, 15:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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I added V__ to my ignore list, still cannot get away from this person because every second post is in response to his/her idiotic crusade. What more can I do? I guess nothing. Signal to noise ratio of this thread has plummeted, well done V__, be proud of yourself.
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Old 29.03.2020, 16:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why? What's more important: a line on a map or that they are human beings that need help.
Judging from how the EU has withheld our medical supplies, I'm not quite sure how to answer that.
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Old 29.03.2020, 16:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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PCR testing is extraordinarily reliable. It's more reliable than every other testing method out there. The risk is actually to get false negatives because the swab wasn't inserted far enough into the patient's nasal cavity.
Thanks for your continued informative and rational posts on this thread.

I saw an article along those lines about a week ago, saying that the accuracy of the test somewhat depends on where the virus is lurking at any given moment - in the nasal cavity, throat, or deeper down. If it's not in the nasal cavity and instead lower down, a person could test negative even if they have the virus. One idea was that a sputum sample would probably be more reliable in terms of fewer false negatives, but those aren't easy to get either.
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Old 29.03.2020, 16:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks for your continued informative and rational posts on this thread.

I saw an article along those lines about a week ago, saying that the accuracy of the test somewhat depends on where the virus is lurking at any given moment - in the nasal cavity, throat, or deeper down. If it's not in the nasal cavity and instead lower down, a person could test negative even if they have the virus.
I got the impression that the correct thing to do was both take a nasal and a throat swab.
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Old 29.03.2020, 16:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why? What's more important: a line on a map or that they are human beings that need help.
Let's hope they unblock those masks and medical supplies they confiscated behind that imaginary line on a map

In other news:

A 90-year-old great great grandmother from Beaumont beats coronavirus

https://kfdm.com/news/local/a-90-yr-...ts-coronavirus
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Old 29.03.2020, 16:27
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Re: Coronavirus

Looking forwards.
I don't see why a lot of businesses, and I'm thinking many shops, the zoos, museums and a host of other places, cannot re-open presently.

If supermarkets are a safe, or at least acceptable risk, with a 2m distance, then the other places should be the same, maybe add in compulsary free masks and gloves or sanitizer on entry.
Sooner or later the shutdown has to end, as the virus is not going to be eradicated, and a vaccine is not yet on the horizon.
Yes, I know we need food, and don't need to go to the zoo at the moment, but a return to 'normality' needs to/will happen before too muchh financial damage is inflicted.
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Old 29.03.2020, 16:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Looking forwards.
I don't see why a lot of businesses, and I'm thinking many shops, the zoos, museums and a host of other places, cannot re-open presently.

If supermarkets are a safe, or at least acceptable risk, with a 2m distance, then the other places should be the same, maybe add in compulsary free masks and gloves or sanitizer on entry.
Sooner or later the shutdown has to end, as the virus is not going to be eradicated, and a vaccine is not yet on the horizon.
Yes, I know we need food, and don't need to go to the zoo at the moment, but a return to 'normality' needs to/will happen before too muchh financial damage is inflicted.
The less points of contact means the less people in hospital. Food supply is mandatory and not easily replaced by a truck handing out bowls of soup at your door.

And that is how simple it is.
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