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  #6401  
Old 06.04.2020, 17:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Now now - his pregnant girlfriend now has corona virus symptoms- wouldn't wish that on anyone.
I wish his pregnant girlfriend gets well soon.

Boris himself originally went for a "herd immunity" strategy so potentially sentencing thousands to an early death.
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  #6402  
Old 06.04.2020, 17:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wish his pregnant girlfriend gets well soon.

Boris himself originally went for a "herd immunity" strategy so potentially sentencing thousands to an early death.
Yes, this. A pregnant woman is a pregnant woman anyway and this particular one is not responsible for her partner's idiocy.

Wish her to get well soon too.
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  #6403  
Old 06.04.2020, 17:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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Birds and bees are going crazy outside..It is not fair, we have to be locked in.
Where I am people are lying in the sun and keeping a good distance from each other ( Werd Insel )
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  #6404  
Old 06.04.2020, 17:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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...Unfortunately there's still not enough capacity for large-scale tests among the general population. She also said that when there's more surplus capacity homes for the elderly, Spitex personnel and customers, and similar will probably be the next groups to get tested, too...
I wonder though - is it worthwhile at this point? What good does it do to test thousands now, when they may have already had it and recovered within the last month? It could warp statistics to show the virus wasn't that widespread when actually it was everywhere. Perhaps authorities should start focusing on a serum test so we can see how many people had the virus in addition to testing those with symptoms to see if they currently have it.
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Old 06.04.2020, 17:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Basically everyone has to isolate - you're not allowed to socialise with anyone outside your own household, no 5 person rule there. Also the KITAs are shut except for essential workers.

Police controls there are pretty strict
Who gives a damn what they are doing in Austria. So many posts referring to Austria!
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  #6406  
Old 06.04.2020, 17:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder though - is it worthwhile at this point? What good does it do to test thousands now, when they may have already had it and recovered within the last month? It could warp statistics to show the virus wasn't that widespread when actually it was everywhere. Perhaps authorities should start focusing on a serum test so we can see how many people had the virus in addition to testing those with symptoms to see if they currently have it.
Rather than warping statistics, you obtain a more accurate epidemiological profile of who’s had it. Contact tracing will help understand the spread. Finally you can identify possible immune cases for further study- antibody identification and so forth.

Not testing means you stare into a black hole.

ETA - didn’t read carefully enough. I assumed you were testing for both the disease and an outcome. Maybe, maybe not.
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  #6407  
Old 06.04.2020, 18:00
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Re: Coronavirus

Not testing looks like anticipating that everyone will have gone through it soon.
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  #6408  
Old 06.04.2020, 18:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Who gives a damn what they are doing in Austria. So many posts referring to Austria!
I'd like to refer local crisis policy makers to Austria. That plan that got quoted here was very clear and people need that.
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  #6409  
Old 06.04.2020, 18:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Who gives a damn what they are doing in Austria. So many posts referring to Austria!
Perhaps because it is close to here, has a comparable society, structure, etc. so what they so just might contain pointers for what will happen here.
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  #6410  
Old 06.04.2020, 18:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder though - is it worthwhile at this point? What good does it do to test thousands now, when they may have already had it and recovered within the last month? It could warp statistics to show the virus wasn't that widespread when actually it was everywhere. Perhaps authorities should start focusing on a serum test so we can see how many people had the virus in addition to testing those with symptoms to see if they currently have it.
Sadly a working test appears to be at least 4 weeks away.
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  #6411  
Old 06.04.2020, 18:14
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Re: Coronavirus

FYI Switzerland tested more than any other country other than Bahrain (?) and Norway, per capita anyway. We predominantly tested those who showed symptoms.

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What good does it do to test thousands now, when they may have already had it and recovered within the last month? It could warp statistics to show the virus wasn't that widespread when actually it was everywhere. Perhaps authorities should start focusing on a serum test so we can see how many people had the virus in addition to testing those with symptoms to see if they currently have it.
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Rather than warping statistics, you obtain a more accurate epidemiological profile of who’s had it. Contact tracing will help understand the spread. Finally you can identify possible immune cases for further study- antibody identification and so forth.

Not testing means you stare into a black hole.
Both above.

The statistics are being warped either way at this stage. By artificially locking in people, there are limits to understanding the virus and how it spreads, but knowing that is significantly more important in the short-, mid- and long-term.

It needs a combo of antibody tests and continued testing for those who show symptoms and subsequent temporary isolation if tested positive.

I'm sure a) it's been around for many months already anyway AND b) many more people actually had it at some stage OR c) it doesn't spread very easily AND/OR d) there are much more important factors that influence spreading. Either way mortality rates will be much lower than people (briefly) thought at some stage.

Of course going forward, the precise strategy here is a political challenge rather than one purely based on considerations of (public) health. Depending on mid-term insights and actual data, many people may well have to deal with uncomfortable truths and backlashes. Granted, it's a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" for everyone.

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Sadly a working test appears to be at least 4 weeks away.
Source?

Because: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/h...body-test.html (if no access: https://www.livescience.com/first-co...proved-us.html)

Last edited by Samaire13; 06.04.2020 at 18:25.
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  #6412  
Old 06.04.2020, 18:23
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Re: Coronavirus

Can't find where I originally read it atm, probably in a ticker, but this says the same (from a couple of hours ago)

https://www.ft.com/content/f28e26a0-...b-b3a618ca659d

This has been promised for about a month now, constantly being "a few days" away. But the tech simply isn't doing the job yet.
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  #6413  
Old 06.04.2020, 18:54
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Re: Coronavirus

Not true. Already available, be it in small volumes though.

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Sadly a working test appears to be at least 4 weeks away.
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  #6414  
Old 06.04.2020, 19:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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FYI Switzerland tested more than any other country other than Bahrain (?) and Norway, per capita anyway. We predominantly tested those who showed symptoms.
Sauce?

Situationsbericht zur epidemiologischen Lage in der Schweiz und im Fürstentum Liechtenstein

Date - Total tests
06.04.2020 - 162’500 (15% positive)
02.04.2020 - 139'330 (15% positive)
31.03.2020 - 123'150 (13% poitive)
30.03.2020 - 116'700 (13% positive)
27.03.2020 - 97’012 (12% positive)
25.03.2020 - ca. 84'000 (12% positive)
Not stated if number of test is the same as number of different persons.

This is around 40'000 per week.

Germany has around 350'000 per week
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/...e-0594d1dbf87a
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  #6415  
Old 06.04.2020, 19:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sauce?

Situationsbericht zur epidemiologischen Lage in der Schweiz und im Fürstentum Liechtenstein

Date - Total tests
06.04.2020 - 162’500 (15% positive)
02.04.2020 - 139'330 (15% positive)
31.03.2020 - 123'150 (13% poitive)
30.03.2020 - 116'700 (13% positive)
27.03.2020 - 97’012 (12% positive)
25.03.2020 - ca. 84'000 (12% positive)
Not stated if number of test is the same as number of different persons.

This is around 40'000 per week.

Germany has around 350'000 per week
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/...e-0594d1dbf87a
Per capita, not in absolute numbers. Granted, one can argue which measure is more important and I don't think there's a definitive answer.

https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/die-wich...rus-ld.1542774 (scroll down a bit)

All information to be taken with a grain of salt these days or at least a healthy dose of skepticism and double-checking, but NZZ and BAG seem to be fairly trusted.
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  #6416  
Old 06.04.2020, 19:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Rather than warping statistics, you obtain a more accurate epidemiological profile of who’s had it. Contact tracing will help understand the spread. Finally you can identify possible immune cases for further study- antibody identification and so forth.

Not testing means you stare into a black hole.

ETA - didn’t read carefully enough. I assumed you were testing for both the disease and an outcome. Maybe, maybe not.
Yes, sorry if I wasn't clear. I think instead of continuing to ramp up only initial testing there needs to be a push towards antibody testing as well.

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Sadly a working test appears to be at least 4 weeks away.
On 10 vor 10 news the other night this was what virologists seemed to say. They know that when a person has active Covid-19 there will be higher antibodies and when the disease is done the numbers will be lower, but at the moment there's no accepted magic number for immunity.
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  #6417  
Old 06.04.2020, 19:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not true. Already available, be it in small volumes though.
Should have been clear on that but the point is to have a test for mass use. Like for everyone in Switzerland for perhaps CHF10 a pop.
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  #6418  
Old 06.04.2020, 19:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Per capita, not in absolute numbers.
Germany ~4230/ Mio/ week
Switzerland ~4670/Mio/ week

Just a 10% difference. Same order of magnitude.

Past testing is not interesting. Anyone which tested negative in the past could test positve today.
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  #6419  
Old 06.04.2020, 19:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Per capita, not in absolute numbers. Granted, one can argue which measure is more important and I don't think there's a definitive answer.

https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/die-wich...rus-ld.1542774 (scroll down a bit)

All information to be taken with a grain of salt these days or at least a healthy dose of skepticism and double-checking, but NZZ and BAG seem to be fairly trusted.
Can also and easily be seen here. Updated daily. Per capita is certainly the relevant number.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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  #6420  
Old 06.04.2020, 19:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Past testing is not interesting. Anyone which tested negative in the past could test positve today.
Well sure, but if you go by that logic you will never see the end of anything... I can test negative on a number of things today but not tomorrow. For current purposes, the grand total certainly matters more, given most of us have had pretty much zero human contact for 3 weeks now and, most importantly, to get at least a semi-acceptable amount of data (better than having zero data which is what we've had so far) as well as an indicative picture that can inform course of action as obviously the current situation is nowhere near sustainable.
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