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  #6821  
Old 10.04.2020, 00:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Got it but at what cost exactly? And note his original estimates of 100,000 to 200,000 were extremely conservative and in the best case scenario (according to Fauci at that time).

So let's take 100,000 to be nice here; then he is off by 40%? Really??

Not working for me...sorry! Their model is way off and shame on them for causing this panic. And to think of the havoc/stress this has caused those unemployed and small business owners - notwithstanding the US economy as a whole: an additional 16.7 million unemployed in 3 weeks time.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jo...ion-2020-04-09

Again, they predicted more than 200,000 deaths or possibly 100,000 provided they contained things. Something is grossly off with the modeling/math here.

Just my thoughts...
While I agree with a couple of your thoughts, what you are saying about Fauci is definitely not true. I was watching those daily Trump task force meetings regularly during those evenings when the 100,000 - 200,000 estimate was given. Fauci was being grilled very intently by the press as to how those numbers were obtained. He was extremely clear that the models were based upon what was happening in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut at the time. He said repeatedly that it was only a model based on actual data that was available at the time. He was quite sure that the actual number would be less than 100,000 as the nation would most likely not follow the same path as those three states.

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  #6822  
Old 10.04.2020, 00:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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No mathematical model can possibly provide perfect projections for a biological phenomenon like this. But if I understand you correctly, you are unhappy and complaining because now only 60,000 are projected to die instead of 200,000; right?

Sounds like the government really cocked this up. Better not vote for Trump, then.
And the 16.7 million out of work in three weeks in the US 22 Yards? What are your predicted outcomes then? For those who cannot meet their rent and small businesses who cannot meet payroll? We all looked to Fauci as a guide so to speak and his numbers are so far off. I, for one, am disheartened and am not sure WHO, Fauci and Gates are reliable frankly...
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  #6823  
Old 10.04.2020, 00:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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No one here has referenced Dr Fauci's revised estimates for the US yesterday. In case you had not read, Dr Fauci has revised his earlier estimates of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US (which he called conservative a few weeks ago) to now only 60,000.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/83066...=1586461463382

To quote Shakespeare, "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark"! How did this so called "Conservative" estimate ratchet down from 100,000 to 200,000 to now a mere 60,000?

I am starting to believe we should have adopted the herd immunity approach which Sweden adopted. This pandemic shut down the US economy and put over 16 million out of jobs as of today and NOW they predict in the US, that only 60,000 will die? As reference, the mortality rate of the flu in the US for this year ranges between 24,000-63,000.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

Something is amiss to me to here. What rhymes with collusion? Given his recent estimate, I don't trust Fauci (who by the way sits on Gates' foundation; and Gates is a huge advocate of China!) nor do I trust the WHO - both of whom downplayed the epidemic and China mid January.

This is a travesty on all levels! And so we are supposed to shut down the economy, according to Fauci until a vaccine is found?

Note, I was a believer until Fauci's death estimates yesterday... And what about those impoverished - living paycheck to paycheck and the consequences for them?

No one cared about the death stats regarding influenza before today and now this Covid virus, at least in the US, is looking more like a bad influenza year...
Many have been saying this from literally day 1, here and elsewhere. But any argument and attempt to PLEASE put things at least into a tiny bit of perspective and see the much, much bigger picture was shot down among them OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE hysteria. And mind you, it's still being ignored by many, again here and elsewhere.

That being said, good that estimates go down or - more accurately - are finally based on at least a semi-acceptable amount of data rather than pretty much none at all. However as I posted elsewhere already, it'll make a hell of an interesting time once people need to start explaining why it was worth leaving half the world in (partly temporary) shambles. I give it another month or so until that conversation kicks off. Stay tuned...

Last edited by Samaire13; 10.04.2020 at 01:00.
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  #6824  
Old 10.04.2020, 00:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Got it but at what cost exactly? And note his original estimates of 100,000 to 200,000 were extremely conservative and in the best case scenario (according to Fauci at that time).

So let's take 100,000 to be nice here; then he is off by 40%? Really??

Not working for me...sorry! Their model is way off and shame on them for causing this panic. And to think of the havoc/stress this has caused those unemployed and small business owners - notwithstanding the US economy as a whole: an additional 16.7 million unemployed in 3 weeks time.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jo...ion-2020-04-09

Again, they predicted more than 200,000 deaths or possibly 100,000 provided they contained things. Something is grossly off with the modeling/math here.

Just my thoughts...

Don't blame Dr. Fauci. Modelling results should be treated with cautions as the calculation was done with specific assumptions and currently existing data. So, depending on the progress of the pandemic, the results will be updated accordingly.


These info are certainly mentioned in his original work, but probably left out of the media's version for certain reasons . As a warning, he probably assumed rather bad reactions from the societies and governments.

Last edited by Limestone; 10.04.2020 at 01:04.
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  #6825  
Old 10.04.2020, 00:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Uhm with all due respect, a handful of people have been saying this from literally day 1, here and elsewhere. So some are starting to realise something's off and it's a travesty now? It was one all along. But any argument and attempt to PLEASE put things at least into a tiny bit of perspective was shot down among them OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE hysteria. And mind you, it's still being shut down by many, again here and elsewhere
Until yesterday, when Fauci stated that the predicted death rate in the US was only 60,000 to 100,000/200,000 which he initially predicted on a conservative "if we are lucky basis". Sorry, but before this and according to Fauci, the outbreak in the US looked alarming - whatever you thought you knew!

His revised estimate for me was a game changer. Again, you can claim you knew this all along but then you never regarded Fauci's initial estimate or chose to ignore it.

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say...
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  #6826  
Old 10.04.2020, 01:06
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Re: Coronavirus

An interesting article and timeline regarding Fauci:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...al_142845.html
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  #6827  
Old 10.04.2020, 01:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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An interesting article and timeline regarding Fauci:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...al_142845.html
As it looks like you are hell bent on your Pro-Trump, Anti-Fauci-WHO-China crusade, I suggest you up the ante from RealClearPolitics and start getting your news from One America News Network.
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  #6828  
Old 10.04.2020, 01:22
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Re: Coronavirus

Lots of pissing around here.
This is the way to go:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/a...hnk/index.html
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  #6829  
Old 10.04.2020, 08:07
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Re: Coronavirus

Easter on the way to Tessin Gotthard Tunnel. Above 2020
Below 2019

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Old 10.04.2020, 09:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Until yesterday, when Fauci stated that the predicted death rate in the US was only 60,000 to 100,000/200,000 which he initially predicted on a conservative "if we are lucky basis". Sorry, but before this and according to Fauci, the outbreak in the US looked alarming - whatever you thought you knew!

His revised estimate for me was a game changer. Again, you can claim you knew this all along but then you never regarded Fauci's initial estimate or chose to ignore it.

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say...
Oh no no, don't get me wrong, I certainly didn't know. I couldn't have known. Nobody could have.

What I and others have been suggesting (and at times aggressively promoting) from the start was to have a healthy dose of reason and critically reflect on whatever is being thrown out by media and even by experts, many of whom couldn't even agree among themselves (within the same area of expertise of course). Now, this was the entire problem to begin with - something we weren't familiar with came our way, and people just did something as doing nothing didn't seem like an option.

However that "something" was so drastic that at least the consequences of that could well have been anticipated. We may not immediately have known the best way to keep this particular virus at bay, but it was crystal clear that shutting down the world would have far-reaching consequences.

(For all others: I'm decidedly liberal and I'm not extremely familiar with Fauci in particular but will now do some reading to get a full picture. My comments were referring to the broader context).
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  #6831  
Old 10.04.2020, 09:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Until yesterday, when Fauci stated that the predicted death rate in the US was only 60,000 to 100,000/200,000 which he initially predicted on a conservative "if we are lucky basis". Sorry, but before this and according to Fauci, the outbreak in the US looked alarming - whatever you thought you knew!

His revised estimate for me was a game changer. Again, you can claim you knew this all along but then you never regarded Fauci's initial estimate or chose to ignore it.

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say...
You do not find 60,000 deaths in a couple of months to be alarming? OK?
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  #6832  
Old 10.04.2020, 09:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh no no, don't get me wrong, I certainly didn't know. I couldn't have known. Nobody could have.

What I and others have been suggesting (and at times aggressively promoting) from the start was to have a healthy dose of reason and critically reflect on whatever is being thrown out by media and even by experts, many of whom couldn't even agree among themselves (within the same area of expertise of course). Now, this was the entire problem to begin with - something we weren't familiar with came our way, and people just did something as doing nothing didn't seem like an option.

However that "something" was so drastic that at least the consequences of that could well have been anticipated. We may not immediately have known the best way to keep this particular virus at bay, but it was crystal clear that shutting down the world would have far-reaching consequences.

(For all others: I'm decidedly liberal and I'm not extremely familiar with Fauci in particular but will now do some reading to get a full picture. My comments were referring to the broader context).
Shutting down the world is clearly reducing new cases in those countries doing it properly but even so, the world death rate is today over 7,000 per day; an annual death rate of over two and a half million.

So, a successful strategy.
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  #6833  
Old 10.04.2020, 09:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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As it looks like you are hell bent on your Pro-Trump, Anti-Fauci-WHO-China crusade, I suggest you up the ante from RealClearPolitics and start getting your news from One America News Network.
And perhaps you should up the ante and use CNN as your chief and only news source?

As an FYI, Real Clear Politics posts links to left, moderate and right wing sources (WAPO, NYT, CNN, Fox et al). Take a look:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com
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  #6834  
Old 10.04.2020, 09:48
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Re: Coronavirus

Even online there is now a waiting line. WTF!
coronavirus-screenshot_2020-04-10-queue-.png
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  #6835  
Old 10.04.2020, 09:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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You do not find 60,000 deaths in a couple of months to be alarming? OK?
They, Fauci et al, had us believe that in the best case scenario, if a lockdown took place then maybe just maybe, only 100,000 to 200,000 deaths would occur. And now that estimate has come down to 60,000? Sorry, but THAT is a fairly glaring difference. Whoever was in charge of the modeling did a pretty lousy job in my view.

It has already been a few months since the first case of corona was reported in late January in the US. As of this morning, the US reported approximately 16,500 deaths thus far. Note that according to CDC estimates, there were 23,000 to 65,000 deaths related to influenza between October 2019 and March 28, 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I am very worried about the long term effects this lockdown will have on the poor and working class notwithstanding small businesses.
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  #6836  
Old 10.04.2020, 10:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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They, Fauci et al, had us believe that in the best case scenario, if a lockdown took place then maybe just maybe, only 100,000 to 200,000 deaths would occur. And now that estimate has come down to 60,000? Sorry, but THAT is a fairly glaring difference. Whoever was in charge of the modeling did a pretty lousy job in my view.

It has already been a few months since the first case of corona was reported in late January in the US. As of this morning, the US reported approximately 16,500 deaths thus far. Note that according to CDC estimates, there were 23,000 to 65,000 deaths related to influenza between October 2019 and March 28, 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I am very worried about the long term effects this lockdown will have on the poor and working class notwithstanding small businesses.
It is obvious that you are basing your condemnation on what you read in the press rather than the words what actually came out of Fauci's mouth.

I am still in agreement about your last paragraph though.
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  #6837  
Old 10.04.2020, 10:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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They, Fauci et al, had us believe that in the best case scenario, if a lockdown took place then maybe just maybe, only 100,000 to 200,000 deaths would occur. And now that estimate has come down to 60,000? Sorry, but THAT is a fairly glaring difference. Whoever was in charge of the modeling did a pretty lousy job in my view.

It has already been a few months since the first case of corona was reported in late January in the US. As of this morning, the US reported approximately 16,500 deaths thus far. Note that according to CDC estimates, there were 23,000 to 65,000 deaths related to influenza between October 2019 and March 28, 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I am very worried about the long term effects this lockdown will have on the poor and working class notwithstanding small businesses.
16,500 COV-19 deaths in one month versus 23,000 to 65,000 flu deaths in six months. Worldometer reports the first US COV-19 death on March 10th.

Or looking at this another way, the daily US death rate is now ca. 1,900; which is a six-month rate of 365,000 COV-19 deaths; around six times the worst flu death estimate.
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  #6838  
Old 10.04.2020, 10:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Even online there is now a waiting line. WTF!
Attachment 139197
It's to stop a site going down due to too much traffic that it is not designed to handle. Landi likely under normal circumstances never get anywhere near this amount of visitors and their site and hosting service bandwidth were designed to cater to a smaller clientele.

It's good thing they have implemented the queue because many sites don't do that and just crash or give you an error message asking you to try again later.
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  #6839  
Old 10.04.2020, 10:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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It is obvious that you are basing your condemnation on what you read in the press rather than the words what actually came out of Fauci's mouth.

I am still in agreement about your last paragraph though.
Exactly. Let's look at what was actually said. Taken from NPR as this was the source used before.

Quote:
Dr. Anthony Fauci said based on modeling of the current pace of the coronavirus' spread in the U.S., "between 100,000 and 200,000" people may die from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus....Fauci said the 100,000-to-200,000 death figure is a middle-of-the-road estimate, much lower than worse-case-scenario predictions..... However, Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."....
The numbers are down due to new measures introduced at about the time of that forecast and particularly social distancing being mire successful than projected.

I suppose the Trump supporters will dismiss it as it's CNN but a decent explanation here
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/08/p...l-8/index.html
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  #6840  
Old 10.04.2020, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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It has already been a few months since the first case of corona was reported in late January in the US. As of this morning, the US reported approximately 16,500 deaths thus far. Note that according to CDC estimates, there were 23,000 to 65,000 deaths related to influenza between October 2019 and March 28, 2020.
One should not compare confirmed cases of one disease with estimates of another disease. No current estimate is known yet for Corona, but we are certain that in a bunch of countries the count of corona deaths is much higher than reported. Netherlands and Ecuador are good examples of such, those deaths we should find in the estimates later.

As for America undercounting: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/u...ndercount.html
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