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  #6841  
Old 10.04.2020, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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To quote Shakespeare, "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark"! How did this so called "Conservative" estimate ratchet down from 100,000 to 200,000 to now a mere 60,000?
As for quoting:
"When that facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" (J.M.Keynes)

Fauci's estimate is based on the measures taken and their effect. Both keep changing therfor an estimate that's based on them MUST change as well.
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  #6842  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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The source link now shows the 1'000+ figure for yesterday, hence it's not an error, just a difference in accounting. Maybe, BAG took a page or two from their Chinese counterparts.
It's the other way round, they know what result they want and adjust their "source" accordingly.

Feel free to trust an anonymous web site that explicitly says they take no responsibilty whatsoever more than an official source that can be held responsible.
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  #6843  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Exactly. Let's look at what was actually said. Taken from NPR as this was the source used before.


The numbers are down due to new measures introduced at about the time of that forecast and particularly social distancing being mire successful than projected.

I suppose the Trump supporters will dismiss it as it's CNN but a decent explanation here
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/08/p...l-8/index.html
We watch local news here, it is hard to put on the CNN afterwards and their way of reporting.

I wonder if the US leadership has shared the higher estimates on purppose, to make people quickly realize that the potential vectors have future stats in their hands. I also think that NYC wouldn't see earlier stats as blown out of proportions, the NYC mayor just said he has to outsource extra coroners. There is not enough staff to process so many dead people.

Last edited by MusicChick; 10.04.2020 at 11:22.
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  #6844  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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You do not find 60,000 deaths in a couple of months to be alarming? OK?
From January 24:
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Two cases in Singapore and two in the US to date. Scary!!
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  #6845  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Many have been saying this from literally day 1, here and elsewhere. But any argument and attempt to PLEASE put things at least into a tiny bit of perspective and see the much, much bigger picture was shot down among them OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE hysteria. And mind you, it's still being ignored by many, again here and elsewhere.
Nonsense.

You keep ignoring what happened in Italy and Spain which demonstrates the consequences of an overwhelmed healthcare system. And you keep ignoring the fact that this was avoided (so far) exactly by what you keep criticising and say shouldn't have been implemented in the first place.
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  #6846  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Nonsense.

You keep ignoring what happened in Italy and Spain which demonstrates the consequences of an overwhelmed healthcare system. And you keep ignoring the fact that this was avoided (so far) exactly by what you keep criticising and say shouldn't have been implemented in the first place.
When did I say it shouldn't have been done at all?

What I've been saying all along is to consider the wider perspectives and context, particularly in the absence of ANY reliable data, to avoid blind reactions because "everyone was doing the same", and to instead find solutions that are less draconian, much more measured, targeted and limited, simply to avoid MUCH bigger problems down the road.

And with all due respect, my very early estimates, opinions and assumptions on what will happen in the political and economic arenas haven't been far off. And this particular part of the story is indeed only beginning.
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  #6847  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:30
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Re: Coronavirus

Germany’s 'Wuhan' has 15 per cent infection rate and 0.37% death toll

Study to examine the town where the first virus fatalities occurred yields surprise results
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  #6848  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:35
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Re: Coronavirus

I've come across with this article, sorry it's in French

Basically/in short they assume

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Des chercheurs de l’Université de Gand (UGent) pensent que les différences génétiques entre les habitants expliquent pourquoi le nouveau coronavirus fait plus de victimes dans certains pays. Ce qui expliquerait, selon eux, que les pays scandinaves ou ceux de l’Europe de l’Est semblent moins touchés que d’autres régions du monde.
https://www.lesoir.be/293563/article...ord%3DUGent%22

Opinions?
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  #6849  
Old 10.04.2020, 11:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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When did I say it shouldn't have been done at all?

What I've been saying all along is to consider the wider perspectives and context, particularly in the absence of ANY reliable data, to avoid blind reactions because "everyone was doing the same", and to instead find solutions that are less draconian, much more measured, targeted and limited, simply to avoid MUCH bigger problems down the road.
Meaning, obviously, that the measures taken go too far and therefor shouldn't have been taken. Thank you for the confirmation.

Besides, how does taking "targeted" measures "in the absence of ANY reliable data" work? If you don't see the contradiction, that you can't aim when shooting in the dark, there's really no discussing with you.
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  #6850  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've come across with this article, sorry it's in French

Basically/in short they assume



https://www.lesoir.be/293563/article...ord%3DUGent%22

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Have also been wondering why (apart from some obvious bad demographic reasons in some countries), some races appear to have heavier death tolls than others.

I started thinking about this only because my genetic blood disease is only usually found in certain races, or in certain countries. It’s the reason I can’t provide a blood donation. Interesting reading.
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  #6851  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've come across with this article, sorry it's in French

Basically/in short they assume

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pensent que les différences génétiques entre les habitants expliquent pourquoi le nouveau coronavirus fait plus de victimes dans certains pays.
https://www.lesoir.be/293563/article...ord%3DUGent%22

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Actually, they're not "assuming" anything, but suggesting that it might be so. They "think" that ethnic/genetic differences might explain why some countries are more or less prone to infection than others.

There have been a few articles on this recently, but all based on the current confused and often contradicting data available, so it's still all conjecture at the scientific level. In the long term such discoveries, if fully understood, could help with treating this or related viruses, but for now it's not really very helpful.

Some biased or sensationalist reports have used different reported infection rates it to suggest various types of inequality (e.g. that black and Asian people in the UK have worse access to healthcare that whites). Politicising tne pandemic is despicable, IMO.
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  #6852  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:14
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Re: Coronavirus

greenmount, I read it and I find it > ridiculous .

I dont even know where to start..
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  #6853  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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No one here has referenced Dr Fauci's revised estimates for the US yesterday. In case you had not read, Dr Fauci has revised his earlier estimates of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US (which he called conservative a few weeks ago) to now only 60,000.

[...]

Something is amiss to me to here. What rhymes with collusion?
Lack of math conclusion?

Exponential growth seems to be hard to grasp and to understand how it works. This ain't not easy linear shit. A tiny bit of twiddling with the input parameters can have a huge impact on the outcome. In this respect 100k is almost the same as 60k. Fauci allready said back when the 100k to 240k:

Quote:
Asked whether the 100,000-death projection is to be expected, Fauci said the hope is that the number will be much lower, but people need to be prepared for the worst.
Also models are not fixed and constantly fed with the newest available data which includes peoples behavior and a understanding of the epidemic. It is like a weather forecast model, just that the temperature can be as likely a mild 30 °C as well as a searing hot 28'500 °C

Be also aware that this prediction is just for a limited time period till the summer and not a full 12 month or even two years.

My take on it:
- 60k is a rather optimistic best case scenario.
- If some spouts out a single number it is most likely driven by political pressure than any thing else.
- Do not cherry pick data nor make any prediction from a single day to day change.
- Hope for the best and protect yourself but be prepared and not surprised if gets much more bleak.
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  #6854  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:22
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Re: Coronavirus

For those who think the lockdowns are an over reaction...

As of April 8th, Covid-19 is the number 1 cause of death in the US.
https://public.flourish.studio/visua...gG7UUTAbpdGkdc

Since the beginning of March, it has exponentially grown from 1 death per day to 2000 per day. Despite the mitigation efforts.

The death toll is certainly understated. True figures will become apparent in 2021 when we look back at the difference from normally expected annual deaths for the year.

Dying from covid-19 has been described as slowly drowning to death while in hospital as the doctor and nurses stand by helplessly.

For every person who has died, there are 10 who were hospitalised with a severe case, fought for their life, and are now at home struggling with lasting physical and psychological damage from the trauma.

Statistically, it appears this is upwards of a 1-in-50 year pandemic event.
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  #6855  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've come across with this article, sorry it's in French

Basically/in short they assume
https://www.lesoir.be/293563/article...ord%3DUGent%22

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I would guess that the UK and Australia have the same genetic pool. If the hypothesis was correct their numbers should show similar relations (deaths as a proportion of total cases) but they don't. In fact Australia's fairly flat incidence curve should, if everything else was equal, even result in a higher percentage of deaths among the positive cases.

Day 1 is the day where the number of positive cases surpassed 100.
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  #6856  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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I would guess that the UK and Australia have the same genetic pool. If the hypothesis was correct their numbers should show similar relations [/IMG]
No, they shouldn't. That would only be an extension from the hypothesis if all other variant factors were equalised. The massive difference in population density is most likely the largest of these, but attempts to compare data based on individual factors like this have all been shown to be flawed, so far at least.
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  #6857  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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I would guess that the UK and Australia have the same genetic pool. If the hypothesis was correct their numbers should show similar relations (deaths as a proportion of total cases) but they don't. In fact Australia's fairly flat incidence curve should, if everything else was equal, even result in a higher percentage of deaths among the positive cases.

Day 1 is the day where the number of positive cases surpassed 100.
I believe your statement regarding the genetic pool is incorrect. The UK has a more diverse pool with people intermingling from former colonies; whereas Australia doesn't necessarily have that particular influx of people from the Caribbean and African region, but they do have a slight Polynesian and Aboriginal presence and lately Asian as well.
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  #6858  
Old 10.04.2020, 12:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Actually, they're not "assuming" anything, but suggesting that it might be so. They "think" that ethnic/genetic differences might explain why some countries are more or less prone to infection than others.

There have been a few articles on this recently, but all based on the current confused and often contradicting data available, so it's still all conjecture at the scientific level. In the long term such discoveries, if fully understood, could help with treating this or related viruses, but for now it's not really very helpful.

Some biased or sensationalist reports have used different reported infection rates it to suggest various types of inequality (e.g. that black and Asian people in the UK have worse access to healthcare that whites). Politicising tne pandemic is despicable, IMO.
Sorry, have used the word slightly incorrectly. I was multitasking as usual. I know the differences btw. but I don't mind people being pedantic when indeed it is relevant. Thanks for correcting me.
I have the same thoughts on this article like most folks here, however I found the original question i.e. "Is there anything else, apart from the already discussed factors, that could explain the differences in death tolls?" quite valid.
I agree we don't even have reliable data yet so all these studies seem very.....don't know how to even put it.
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  #6859  
Old 10.04.2020, 13:06
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Re: Coronavirus

Beirut, Lebanon safer place in times of corona for US citizens, most refuse to be repatriated to the US.

Can't blame them at all

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/m...ntl/index.html

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On the morning of April 5, the US embassy flew 95 US citizens out of Lebanon, according to a US State Department official. It is estimated that thousands of Americans live in Lebanon -- many of whom also hold Lebanese citizenship.

When asked about Americans suggesting that Beirut is, for once, safer than the US, the official declined to comment.
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  #6860  
Old 10.04.2020, 13:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Beirut, Lebanon safer place in times of corona for US citizens, most refuse to be repatriated to the US.

Can't blame them at all

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/m...ntl/index.html
Clickbait for the uneducated masses that think that it is still the 80s in Lebanon.

Last edited by Patxi; 10.04.2020 at 16:34. Reason: removed phantom quote
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