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  #6881  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:03
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Re: Coronavirus

BJ is able to do short walks.

I hope he doesn't rush his recovery.
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  #6882  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:04
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Re: Coronavirus

Well the number of joggers on the paths has noticeable dropped since the lockdown started. At last they have realized that they are not welcome at the moment!
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  #6883  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not sure it's politicising it to say that if these folks are poorer, have less space and have a more difficult time finding places where they can practice social distance, and don't seek health care because they can't afford or don't have access to it. The same this is true, I believe in portions of Israel that are overcrowded and poorer - many of these areas are inhabited by very observant Jews. Is it religion or overall demographics. The thing that you have to do is to look at the demographics of those who die regardless of race/religion, etc.

I've seen studies of blood types, ACE receptors and social structure among others. It's just too early to tell, so people are grasping at straws. Media are desperate for any sort of news, and so they report snippets when they understand neither the research nor the completeness of the data. The media push for conclusions when there aren't any. I know that uncertainty is hard, but it's what we have right now.


I hope this really results in a push to encourage numerical literacy in schools. I also hope this results in a way to look at businesses outside their boxes. We'll see.......
I don't think media is pushing for conclusions, they report whatever they can find on this pandemic. According to each journalist's understanding. Sometimes they do just that - report what various institutions or people think or have done to fight this virus. They try to feed our hunger for new info in some cases, sensationalism in others.
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  #6884  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't think media is pushing for conclusions, they report whatever they can find on this pandemic. Sometimes they do just that - report what various institutions or people think or have done to fight this virus. They try to feed our hunger for new info.
Yes its enough to make one want to throw up!
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  #6885  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Most of the attendees were medics or other PhD level scientists, all of whom would have used statistical measures many times over the decades, but most of whom were as blown away by the result as I was.
It’s good you have some respect for the discipline. I’m pretty familiar with the level of statistical training PhD’s and medics get as a whole and I’m not surprised at all at their reaction.
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  #6886  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes its enough to make one want to throw up!
Nothing changed, omtatsat. If it wasn't corona virus, it would have been whatever the frenzy of the moment dictated. This is what media does.
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  #6887  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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...I understand the high hopes for numerical literacy, in terns of hope for help to learn to be smarter and healthier...
and one very important principle to learn is "Garbage In, Garbage Out"
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  #6888  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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and one very important principle to learn is "Garbage In, Garbage Out"
GIGO! You knowz...💋
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  #6889  
Old 10.04.2020, 18:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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No chance.

One of my most hated examples is the headlines that run something like "A new study published today shows...." followed somewhere in the text by "the results, while not statistically significant..." AAAArgh

TBF though, stats are inherently confusing, and most people find it impossible to accept that stats can mean that apparently clear evidence is meaningless.

Only after I'd been designing, writing, implementing and maintaining stats systems for about fifteen years was I myself convinced, when I took an internal course "stats for non-statisticians".

We learned to hand-calculate some basic statistical functions, leading to P value and Confidence Intervals, that sort of thing, then used it in a real hands-on experiment. Each team had a bag of 100 marbles, some black, some white, and each drew ten marbles blind from the bag, to then infer what the ratio was in each bag. The results were completely clear, that one bag was approx 80/20. one 60/40 etc. and we were all happy to draw this conclusion. Until we did the sums, that showed that the chances of getting such a result were just as likely from any given distribution within each bag, and that our results were therefore meaningless, or as in the above terminology, not statistically significant. We didn't believe it.

Then we 'unblinded' by opening the bags, only to find that each one contained exactly 50 black and 50 white marbles. Stats had won the day, and we all walked out with a new respect for the discipline.

Most of the attendees were medics or other PhD level scientists, all of whom would have used statistical measures many times over the decades, but most of whom were as blown away by the result as I was.
Ace1, thank you. This has got to be one of my favourite recent posts.

In primary school, I had the great fortune of experiencing wonderful teaching, and the concept there was to promote critical, analytical thinking.
We also learnt to sing do-re-mi, of The Sound of Music, in which one of the littlest von Trapp girls squeaks: "But it doesn't mean anything!" So when we were learning reading, comprehension, numbers or problem-solving, we were often asked: "Does it mean anything?"

In this context, we did something - vastly simplified as scaled down to our age - similar to a baby-step towards your stats marbles exercise.

The headline read: "Twenty percent of teenagers say they get drunk!" And our task was to decide whether that meant anything, and if so, what.

Well, it meant that 80% of teenagers say that they don't get drunk. Or else it meant that 80% don't say so but possibly do get drunk. But did it?

We worked out that we'd have to know the measure of what counted as "getting drunk", whether there were several degrees of drunkenness, and if so, which ones put them in the "yes" group. And how often they repeated getting drunk, if at all beyond one first incident, and whether there were degrees of frequency only some of which qualified to get into the "yes" group. And whether their parents or teachers had been present when they had said it (possible under-reporting), or whether their mates had been present (possible over-reporting), or whether they had been quetioned at a party venue or only once delivered into hospital (possible that all the sober teenagers never got asked), or at the church youth group (possible that the drinking teenagers featured too seldom) or whether perhaps the data had been delivered by the parents or church leaders or GPs and not by the teenagers themselves, and if so to what extent those adults might over- or under-report, and with which motivation.

We had to find out what, in this case, was the definition of a teenager (which we so very much wanted to become). And whether the article would tell us whether they all lived in the same area. And whether they'd all been surveyed in the same manner, and whether, were another journalist from another newspaper to go out to ask about more teenagers, (or, indeed, if we were to try to do it) would they/we be able to do it in the same way, so we could compare the two articles, and our own? What would it mean if the articles based their writing on different ways of asking about teenagers and drinking?

How many of them had been surveyed, and would it mean something different if we asked 5 teenagers and 1 of them got drunk, or asked 1000 teenagers and 200 of them got drunk? Did the article hold together, so that we could go into the next classroom down the passage, and teach it to the children there, so that they could learn all about it, without our needing to show them the article itself? And who was the journalist and at whose behest the article had been written, and with what motivation, and who might have benefited from the headline, and might have paid for it. And above all, had anyone thought up any way at all to check whether the reporting was based on any truth?

Our conclusion: "But it doesn't mean anything!". The content of the report didn't really support the headline in any meaningful way, nor did it actually tell us anything substantial, or replicable. I've gone through life ever grateful to the teacher who make us tackle that exercise.
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  #6890  
Old 10.04.2020, 19:24
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Re: Coronavirus

Swedish numbers still look like an anomaly compared to the lock downed Switzerland. 4 weeks later, Swiss numbers are actually worse.

Switzerland - 116 deaths per 1M population
Sweden - 86 deaths per 1M population

Switzerland - 2836 infected per 1M population
Sweden - 959 infected per 1M population

For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?
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  #6891  
Old 10.04.2020, 19:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swedish numbers still look like an anomaly compared to the lock downed Switzerland. 4 weeks later, Swiss numbers are actually worse.

Switzerland - 116 deaths per 1M population
Sweden - 86 deaths per 1M population

Switzerland - 2836 infected per 1M population
Sweden - 959 infected per 1M population

For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?
You already posted several links that stated that lock-downs help prevent a lot of cases.

Oh and Switzerland also tested more than 3 times as much...

In short: Just stop your bull-shit.
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  #6892  
Old 10.04.2020, 19:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Most of the attendees were medics or other PhD level scientists, all of whom would have used statistical measures many times over the decades, but most of whom were as blown away by the result as I was.
Actually it has bčen frequently reported that most doctors have a curious blind spot when it comes to statistics
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  #6893  
Old 10.04.2020, 20:09
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Actually it has bčen frequently reported that most doctors have a curious blind spot when it comes to statistics
Take it from someone who worked in an academic medical center for several years with many academic physicians. (MD's) and (MD/PhD's). it's true.
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  #6894  
Old 10.04.2020, 20:12
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Re: Coronavirus

Right.

Now let's clap hands for them at 9pm.
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  #6895  
Old 10.04.2020, 20:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Actually it has bčen frequently reported that most doctors have a curious blind spot when it comes to statistics
Well yes, that's exactly the point. Neither they, nor I, nor, I suspect, quite a few of the stats programmers working on my systems, really genuinely trusted stats. Previous attempts to educate the whole 300 or so of the European side of Pharma Medical had failed to hit the spot, because they simply used stats to disprove what we'd seen with our own eyes, but with no link back to the real world, so we mentally stuck to what we thought we could trust.

In other words, the stats guys thought they were demonstrating the power of stats by saying "we can prove your 'obvious' conclusions wrong" whereas they were actually making it even less believable; only when one can see the evidence that the statistical conclusion is correct, and the apparent one is not, can you really start to understand what is meant by "not statistically significant".
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Old 10.04.2020, 20:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swedish numbers still look like an anomaly compared to the lock downed Switzerland. 4 weeks later, Swiss numbers are actually worse.

Switzerland - 116 deaths per 1M population
Sweden - 86 deaths per 1M population

Switzerland - 2836 infected per 1M population
Sweden - 959 infected per 1M population

For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?
Don't forget Berset kept ALL the Swiss borders open for many weeks at the start of the pandemic so there was an influx of viruses from many countries most notably Italy and France
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  #6897  
Old 10.04.2020, 20:28
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What an arrogant way to misinterpret. There is nothing wrong with entertainment. It is like TV. Not everybody uses it to learn, or all the time, Odile, and why should they! We sing to it during The Voice! Breathe, Odile...breathe.

The question was whether numerical literacy automatically means being educated or granting it..
Rude. And a leetle aggressive.

Granting what?

I now understand the need for the other thread.
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Old 10.04.2020, 20:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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You already posted several links that stated that lock-downs help prevent a lot of cases.

Oh and Switzerland also tested more than 3 times as much...

In short: Just stop your bull-shit.
he won't stop
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  #6899  
Old 10.04.2020, 20:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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he won't stop
I know
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Old 10.04.2020, 21:02
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Right.

Now let's clap hands for them at 9pm.
Not taking anything away from their amazing medical skills.
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