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  #6921  
Old 10.04.2020, 23:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thank you, as you’re aware, I’m not a complete moron.

However, since you appear to think I have about three brain cells, can you help me understand the France situation, to name one. If the logic is no contact=reduced spread with other factors being irrelevant, why has there been a very limited decline in new infections? Or strike that, new detected infections. Or why - apparently - has the reproduction rate - a fairly important measure - been roughly the same in Switzerland both before and now during the shutdown? One certainly would expect this to look different. And all this is a genuine request - I want to UNDERSTAND, rather than take every random “info” at face value, despite what you may think.
Unless we reduce contactpoints to zero the virus will keep spreading, we did not reduce it to zero so it will keep infecting new people. People still go shopping, working, public transport, gasstations, medical centres, doctors etc.. etc..
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  #6922  
Old 10.04.2020, 23:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swedish numbers still look like an anomaly compared to the lock downed Switzerland. 4 weeks later, Swiss numbers are actually worse.
.......
For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?
Well it appears that Lulea University are taking matters seriously and are making visors for hospital workers who had taken to making their as they have insufficuent PPE.
https://www.ltu.se/ltu/Nar-nagot-han...-1.196999?l=en
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  #6923  
Old 10.04.2020, 23:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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The article says it has a 70% accuracy. But perhaps this will become more useful once they have collected the sounds of many more volunteer Covid patients.

Yes, the accuracy will increase with the number of samples containing coughing sound that they can collect. According to Prof. Atienza's comment on his Linkedin, their target is to reach 90% in the next few weeks. He also emphasized that this app is meant only as a screening tool before other tests (e.g. the "gold standard" real-time PCR") are done.
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  #6924  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Reducing amount of contactpoints reduces the spread of a virus.
Based upon that, I've be curious to know if anyone is reconsidering their current contact points based upon other factors such as ventilation of a premises, etc... I did a bit of shopping last night and have twice noticed that people are behaving differently in one particular place. It's almost as if they're taking a deep beath before entering the building and rushing through as fast as they can.
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  #6925  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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having problems with the browser. I hit the "quote" button and only an empty text input box opens, so I've been manually copying and pasting the orig. text and writing the quote tags around it. pain in the neck. but sometimes it works, like now...
Odds are you're trying to quote a post that has special characters. See here for the workaround:
https://www.englishforum.ch/forum-su...-problems.html

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Similar to all the horror stories in the press about people on or returning from cruises right now.
I immediately look in the article about when they left on the cruise. If after 01 MAR - then they deserve the Darwin award IMHO.
I kind of agree, but I read a story similar to FMF's just the other day and I get why some people still chose to go and take the risk. A couple had spent practically all their savings to go on a cruise for their honeymoon. The cruise was not cancelled, they knew they'd lose every penny if they didn't show up, so they took the chance. They're not sick but they wound up on one of the boats that had to search for a port.

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Seems to be a trend at the moment to post the numbers of deaths from different causes without any explanation of why they are relevant or quoting any credible source?
People are trying to find patterns anywhere or numbers that make them feel better about their position. I can see comparing seasonal influenza, but only after this is all over. Comparing it right now is a bit silly. I think it's pretty clear from prior years that hospitals and morgues are not overwhelmed with typical seasonal flu because the deaths are spread out over a longer period.

Comparing heart disease, cancer, etc. is also pointless. Those are not contagious. If the guy who rode next to me on the tram drops dead of a heart attack tonight, I'm not going to have one tomorrow and pass it on to another 1-3 people. If he makes it to hospital, the staff there don't need to wear special protective gear to avoid having heart attacks themselves.

Covid-19 on the other hand, super contagious. Thus why the tram comment is hypothetical. I haven't been on public transport in more than a month.


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It's the other way round, they know what result they want and adjust their "source" accordingly.

Feel free to trust an anonymous web site that explicitly says they take no responsibilty whatsoever more than an official source that can be held responsible.
I think what you're seeing there is very typical legalese used in the good old USA to avoid getting your pants sued off. Look at any website you sign up to and they tell you it's as-is and use at your own risk.

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...One of my most hated examples is the headlines that run something like "A new study published today shows...." followed somewhere in the text by "the results, while not statistically significant..." AAAArgh
We'll see more of the same after this is over, I'm afraid. Country X reduced deaths by 30% by doing Y (or similar)

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...For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?
Your posts are coming across as if this is some sort of fun game, and frankly it's a bit disturbing. People are suffering and dying, and in most cases now they can't even say goodbye to loved ones. The trauma that comes out of this is going to last a long time. No matter how long you wait, those people are gone and the gaping holes they leave in the lives of loved ones are very real. The trauma experienced by medical and funeral staff won't go away overnight either.

In addition, this is what one should expect when measures to "flatten the curve" are working. Instead of a massive spike, they keep going up gradually and then down gradually. This is not going to be totally over in a few weeks.

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Unless we reduce contactpoints to zero the virus will keep spreading, we did not reduce it to zero so it will keep infecting new people. People still go shopping, working, public transport, gasstations, medical centres, doctors etc.. etc..
And we won't reduce to zero, imo. Several people on this thread have said we're going to have to learn how to live with the virus and I think that may be right.
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  #6926  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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If the logic is no contact=reduced spread with other factors being irrelevant, why has there been a very limited decline in new infections? Or strike that, new detected infections. Or why - apparently - has the reproduction rate - a fairly important measure - been roughly the same in Switzerland both before and now during the shutdown? One certainly would expect this to look different. And all this is a genuine request - I want to UNDERSTAND the full picture, rather than take every random “info” at face value, with no consideration of source or context.
I think all these new infections are actually reflecting what happened a couple or a few weeks ago. If people who had to work or had to be out and about came in contact with someone who was asymptomatic and then spread it even further in family/community, you see the new cases only now, so we're always behind so to speak. They took tough measures but the virus has been circulating for quite a while and we kind of get to see only the tip of the iceberg.
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Old 11.04.2020, 00:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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And we won't reduce to zero, imo. Several people on this thread have said we're going to have to learn how to live with the virus and I think that may be right.
Zero would be impossible.

And fully getting rid of it would be impossible also imho, even if we would have a vaccin there always will be people who refuse vaccins or countries where people do not get vaccinations and viruses do mutate (and almost always get less lethal when mutating), this is simply to wide-spread to ever be contained again. (well perhaps in far future with new technologies)

We're simply with to many people on this earth if you ask me, and new diseases will keep popping up and a much more lethal one is just a matter of time, could be tomorrow could be 50 years.
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  #6928  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yeah and I hear in France, things aren't going so well despite having quite literally locked everyone behind completely closed doors for what, 5 weeks now?

And on the other end of the spectrum, TA (reputable enough) publishes this study from ETH (certainly very reputable): https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ansteck...b-809893127675 For anyone who understands German. Otherwise just look at the graph on reproduction rates which have been the same, give or take, and damn near 1 ever since BEFORE shutting anything down.

What the hell gives?

Bottom line will be: at best there was some correlation between various degrees of shut-/lockdown and reduced spread. At worst it will have made no difference to speak of. Absolutely no one can tell for sure at this stage.

So I will probably give up and just accept for myself what I've said all along: nobody knows shit.
I am not sure what is your point?
The idea of lockdown is to stop the exponential growth of new cases and to "flatten the curve" which is exactly what is happening in Switzerland.
You can see the change start late in March and gets really good at the end of March, see below.
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  #6929  
Old 11.04.2020, 06:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Umm, you need to look at the curve. And the time of the first registered person in the country. And I think you will find, currently, that Switzerland is doing pretty damned well
One simply can't compare countries. Each country has its unique set of circumstances
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Old 11.04.2020, 08:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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31 March:


10 April:


Let's see what happen after 11 days:

Sweden: 14 => 86 (+514%)
Denmark: 13 => 43 (+231%)
Switzerland: 41 => 116 (+160%)

Sweden did 2x worse than Denmark and 3x worse than Switzerland
Will be interesting to see how the economy of each country has performed over the same period of time. If you put the increase like that, Sweden does look bad, but in absolute numbers, the death toll is still very low.

When the whole of Europe suffers 10 years of austerity as a result of this extended lockdown, I wonder if people won't look back at Sweden and think they did the right thing.

Last edited by TonyClifton; 11.04.2020 at 09:23.
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Old 11.04.2020, 08:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Will be interesting to see how the economy of each country has performed over the same period of time. If you put the increase like that, Sweden does look back, but in absolute numbers, the death toll is still very low.

When the whole of Europe suffers 10 years of austerity as a result of this extended lockdown, I wonder if people won't look back at Sweden and think they did the right thing.
One could make it a yearly thing this lockdown. Brings people back to a bit of sanity
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  #6932  
Old 11.04.2020, 09:17
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Re: Coronavirus

A very peculiar and sad case of "corona related" death happened in Macedonia.

According to the officials 2 bodies were discovered on 6th of April inside their own apartment. The lady was 79 years old and her son 53.

The last time the lady was seen by neighbors was in December. She was coughing a lot. She didn't have family and was living alone with her son who had special needs.

The police found them dead in their apartment, from the coroner's report the mother was corona positive and died on 6th of January, the son few days later (because he needed care 24/7) and was corona negative.

This puts a perspective that the virus was spreading undetected in Europe before it appeared officially in China, especially in a place in the middle of nowhere in Macedonia. If the virus was present there in December, for sure it was present in major European cities much earlier.
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  #6933  
Old 11.04.2020, 10:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Unless we reduce contactpoints to zero the virus will keep spreading...
I think this is not the case. R depends on four factors:

Duration of infectivity
Opportunities for infection
Transmissability of infection
Susceptibility to infection.

You only need to reduce opportunities (contact points) to stop the virus spreading. You don't have to reduce it all the way to ero. If the chances of one person infecting another are reduced to 50%, for example, then the virus will die out.
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Old 11.04.2020, 10:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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A very peculiar and sad case of "corona related" death happened in Macedonia.

According to the officials 2 bodies were discovered on 6th of April inside their own apartment. The lady was 79 years old and her son 53.

The last time the lady was seen by neighbors was in December. She was coughing a lot. She didn't have family and was living alone with her son who had special needs.

The police found them dead in their apartment, from the coroner's report the mother was corona positive and died on 6th of January, the son few days later (because he needed care 24/7) and was corona negative.

This puts a perspective that the virus was spreading undetected in Europe before it appeared officially in China, especially in a place in the middle of nowhere in Macedonia. If the virus was present there in December, for sure it was present in major European cities much earlier.
But....

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According to some media reports,
Therefore completely unconfirmed and probably BS.
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Old 11.04.2020, 10:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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But....


Therefore completely unconfirmed and probably BS.
The autopsy result was confirmed by the Minister of Health. It's him who suggested that the virus could have been among us much earlier than we think
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  #6936  
Old 11.04.2020, 10:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think this is not the case. R depends on four factors:

Duration of infectivity
Opportunities for infection
Transmissability of infection
Susceptibility to infection.

You only need to reduce opportunities (contact points) to stop the virus spreading. You don't have to reduce it all the way to ero. If the chances of one person infecting another are reduced to 50%, for example, then the virus will die out.
This. CZ waited till Ro reduced to lower than 1 to start loosening the measures of shutdown. They tested and tracked and will continue, it is targetted and up to 100 people that that one positive person could have potentially infected..

Last edited by MusicChick; 11.04.2020 at 10:46.
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  #6937  
Old 11.04.2020, 10:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Something stinks about closed cases in Sweden vs Denmark.
Some countries like, Switzerland, do not officially publish recovered cases. In Switzerland the number of recovered cases is guessed by some journalists and published here:
https://interactif.tdg.ch/2020/covid-19-carte-suisse/
https://interaktiv.tagesanzeiger.ch/2020/wuhan-schweiz/

Note: that in the German version erroneously uses "Geheilt" instead of the more correct "Genesen".


In conclusion: First check where the number come from, who published them, then compare.

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The idea of lockdown is to stop the exponential growth of new cases and to "flatten the curve" which is exactly what is happening in Switzerland.
You can see the change start late in March and gets really good at the end of March, see below.
Knowing the above you might now realize that the above curve was read from tea leaves.
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Old 11.04.2020, 11:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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The autopsy result was confirmed by the Minister of Health. It's him who suggested that the virus could have been among us much earlier than we think
Again that's NOT what your link says. The precise quote is:

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it is possible
Which is a world away from confirming.
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Old 11.04.2020, 11:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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The autopsy result was confirmed by the Minister of Health. It's him who suggested that the virus could have been among us much earlier than we think
That's only what the article claims. A claim without any kind of independent support, confirmation or proof.

You need confirmation from multiple trustworthy sources, Veles was a major source of fake news during the Trump POTUS campaign.

Please don't tell me you believe everthing you read on the interwebs.
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Old 11.04.2020, 11:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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A very peculiar and sad case of "corona related" death happened in Macedonia.
In Veles? Anything from there should be taken with a bit more than the proverbial grain of salt.
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