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  #6941  
Old 11.04.2020, 11:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's only what the article claims. A claim without any kind of independent support, confirmation or proof.

You need confirmation from multiple trustworthy sources, Veles was a major source of fake news during the Trump POTUS campaign.

Please don't tell me you believe everthing you read on the interwebs.
This has been a developing story and the only confirmation of covid presence came during a press conference from the Ministry of Health but due to the criminal investigation ongoing at the moment there hasn't been an official explanation of the circumstances, only from neighbors. I imagine in a day or more will be clear. But it doesn't look like fake news. This is the exact phrase the minister used during the conference:

"Given that this year we had a really increased number of cases of influenza compared to last year, so this case could mean that the coronavirus was present in Macedonia in January, said Filipce."
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  #6942  
Old 11.04.2020, 11:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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"Given that this year we had a really increased number of cases of influenza compared to last year, so this case could mean that the coronavirus was present in Macedonia in January, said Filipce."
Or just perhaps they had the same flu epidemic that was doing the rounds in Europe then.
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  #6943  
Old 11.04.2020, 11:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think this is not the case. R depends on four factors:

Duration of infectivity
Opportunities for infection
Transmissability of infection
Susceptibility to infection.

You only need to reduce opportunities (contact points) to stop the virus spreading. You don't have to reduce it all the way to ero. If the chances of one person infecting another are reduced to 50%, for example, then the virus will die out.
I ment "keeps on spreading for the time being", should also have typed that.
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  #6944  
Old 11.04.2020, 12:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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A very peculiar and sad case of "corona related" death happened in Macedonia.

According to the officials 2 bodies were discovered on 6th of April inside their own apartment. The lady was 79 years old and her son 53.

The last time the lady was seen by neighbors was in December. She was coughing a lot. She didn't have family and was living alone with her son who had special needs.

The police found them dead in their apartment, from the coroner's report the mother was corona positive and died on 6th of January, the son few days later (because he needed care 24/7) and was corona negative.

This puts a perspective that the virus was spreading undetected in Europe before it appeared officially in China, especially in a place in the middle of nowhere in Macedonia. If the virus was present there in December, for sure it was present in major European cities much earlier.
Maybe the Health Minister Filipce is trying to scare people into taking more tests so he or his cronies can maximize their income during these tough times?

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Healthcare Minister Venko Filipce defended the extremely high price that the public healthcare fund pays for coronavirus testing compared even to the private sector. It turned out that a private test costs about 1.500 denars (25 EUR) but the FZO public fund pays nearly 5.000 denars (80 EUR) to a publicly owned lab for the same test.
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This is even worse than the case of wartime profiteering with tank parts SDSM did during the 2001 war. It shows that our main problem is not the epidemic but the huge level of corruption. Minister Filipce was famously corrupt when everything was normal but nobody expected he would pay four times the market price for coronavirus tests, said VMRO-DPMNE Secretary General Igor Janusev.
source
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  #6945  
Old 11.04.2020, 12:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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"Given that this year we had a really increased number of cases of influenza compared to last year, so this case could mean that the coronavirus was present in Macedonia in January, said Filipce."
Maybe something was lost in translation but that sounds like a blatant Chewbacca defense to me.
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  #6946  
Old 11.04.2020, 12:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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And on the other end of the spectrum, TA (reputable enough) publishes this study from ETH (certainly very reputable): https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ansteck...b-809893127675 For anyone who understands German. Otherwise just look at the graph on reproduction rates which have been the same, give or take, and damn near 1 ever since BEFORE shutting anything down.

What the hell gives?

Bottom line will be: at best there was some correlation between various degrees of shut-/lockdown and reduced spread. At worst it will have made no difference to speak of. Absolutely no one can tell for sure at this stage.
Where do you see a problem?

Measures started to be taken very early in March, IIRC starting with the recomendation to wash the hands properly, often and every time you return home, followed a bit later by the recommendation to keep your distance from one another.

They were effective, based on the assumption underlying the model, but weren't enough as R0 didn't fall below zero so they got tightened further.

Don't you think that makes sense? Why not, what causes your outrage?

Last edited by Urs Max; 11.04.2020 at 12:39.
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  #6947  
Old 11.04.2020, 12:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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This has been a developing story and the only confirmation of covid presence came during a press conference from the Ministry of Health but due to the criminal investigation ongoing at the moment there hasn't been an official explanation of the circumstances, only from neighbors. I imagine in a day or more will be clear. But it doesn't look like fake news. This is the exact phrase the minister used during the conference:

"Given that this year we had a really increased number of cases of influenza compared to last year, so this case could mean that the coronavirus was present in Macedonia in January, said Filipce."
Where's your link to the press conference audio recording? Or the links to at least two credible sources confirming that statement? Where are those media reports the article mentions?

You keep repeating unfounded claims, that doesn't make them any more credible or the source more trustworthy. Quite the contrary, actually.

If this were even remotely credible the major news outlets would have it on their frontpages for days as it had the potential to overthrow what is thought to be known about the first phase. The fact that they don't speaks volumes.
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  #6948  
Old 11.04.2020, 12:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Will be interesting to see how the economy of each country has performed over the same period of time. If you put the increase like that, Sweden does look bad, but in absolute numbers, the death toll is still very low.

When the whole of Europe suffers 10 years of austerity as a result of this extended lockdown, I wonder if people won't look back at Sweden and think they did the right thing.
I have no doubt that avoiding the lockdown will be better for the economy:
  1. the country can gain competitiveness towards other countries with lockdown
  2. the virus is mostly killing elderly and sick people, these are the one having a higher social cost for the country
At the same time I have no doubt that the measures taken by Switzerland are helping containing the disease.


I am not challenging the opinion "maybe this lockdown is too much, the price to pay from an economic point of view will be too high".
We might have more data in few years to better understand the impact of the actions taken today. As of today we still know too little.
At the end the conclusions might even be different depending how much you weight social values vs ethical values vs economical values.
We are in a kind of "Trolley problem" with many more variables and uncertainty here.


I am challenging the opinion "Sweden is doing very well in stopping the spread of the virus".
This is proven false by today's data. We already have this answer, no need to wait longer.

If you want to point out countries which are currently "doing good" in reducing the spread of the virus, Sweden in not one of them.
If I'd have to pick one today: Australia. There are probably many factors helping them: summer, it's an island far away from the "hot zones", early measures taken...
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  #6949  
Old 11.04.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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One could make it a yearly thing this lockdown. Brings people back to a bit of sanity
a "digital detox" month would be nice to have, imo
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  #6950  
Old 11.04.2020, 13:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Where's your link to the press conference audio recording? Or the links to at least two credible sources confirming that statement? Where are those media reports the article mentions?

You keep repeating unfounded claims, that doesn't make them any more credible or the source more trustworthy. Quite the contrary, actually.

If this were even remotely credible the major news outlets would have it on their frontpages for days as it had the potential to overthrow what is thought to be known about the first phase. The fact that they don't speaks volumes.
Here is the link of the press conference where the Minister of Health is answering the question about the woman

Question starts at 14:15

Answer comes at 15:55

https://youtu.be/9_qI_KO16eo

He confirms they found covid-19 in the respiratory parts of the mother and he can not explain how they got there for the moment, he thinks there have been asymptomatic carriers before January that we were not aware of.

They were found dead on 6th of April and death was confirmed by coroner for 6th of January
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  #6951  
Old 11.04.2020, 14:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Some countries like, Switzerland, do not officially publish recovered cases. In Switzerland the number of recovered cases is guessed by some journalists and published here:
https://interactif.tdg.ch/2020/covid-19-carte-suisse/
https://interaktiv.tagesanzeiger.ch/2020/wuhan-schweiz/

Note: that in the German version erroneously uses "Geheilt" instead of the more correct "Genesen".


In conclusion: First check where the number come from, who published them, then compare.


Knowing the above you might now realize that the above curve was read from tea leaves.
It seems the FPOH like the same brand of tea.
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  #6952  
Old 11.04.2020, 14:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or just perhaps they had the same flu epidemic that was doing the rounds in Europe then.
If I had a quid for every numpty who insists that they had Covid-19 as early as August 2019, I'd be buying writing this post from my private island. I suggest we gather these people together and get them to work as porters and cleaners on covid wards seeing as they claim to have survived the disease and are presumably immune from further infection. You'd think they'd be sure enough to volunteer for the roles, alas...
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  #6953  
Old 11.04.2020, 15:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Here is the link of the press conference where the Minister of Health is answering the question about the woman

Question starts at 14:15

Answer comes at 15:55

https://youtu.be/9_qI_KO16eo

He confirms they found covid-19 in the respiratory parts of the mother and he can not explain how they got there for the moment, he thinks there have been asymptomatic carriers before January that we were not aware of.

They were found dead on 6th of April and death was confirmed by coroner for 6th of January
Thanks.

Crap, autogenerated subs not availble.

We'll see what comes out of this.
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  #6954  
Old 11.04.2020, 15:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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It seems the FPOH like the same brand of tea.
Unlike the curve you posted there is no drop as it just show accumulated cases. If you are referring to the much lower daily new cases be aware about this two facts:
1. FPOH shows the date the swap was taken, not the date of the test result or publication date.
2. There is at least a 1-4 day delay from swap taken to test result published by FPOH (in some cases the delay is even longer).

Just like in the past, this numbers will considerably change over the next few days. What actually can clearly be seen in the FPOH graph is that on weekends less swaps are taken. Easter might have a similar effect and might add an extra processing delay. Keep this in mind when you start to cheer about the low numbers of new cases published during the next week.
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  #6955  
Old 11.04.2020, 15:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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It seems the FPOH like the same brand of tea.
I predict a (relatively huge) spike for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly for the entire shortened workweek.

Why you ask? Because there's a clear weekly pattern.
Monday numbers are highest, they declince until Sunday when they are lowest, and spike back up for the next Monday. Fridays may interrupt the pattern, presumably because people clear the backlog in preparation for the weekend.

The pattern is obvious starting March 23. It's also present in the week before but a bit less marked for that Monday and Tuesday.
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Old 11.04.2020, 15:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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If I had a quid for every numpty who insists that they had Covid-19 as early as August 2019, I'd be buying writing this post from my private island. I suggest we gather these people together and get them to work as porters and cleaners on covid wards seeing as they claim to have survived the disease and are presumably immune from further infection. You'd think they'd be sure enough to volunteer for the roles, alas...
Or doctor people, nurse people, paramedic people, delivery people, Spitex people, teacher people, people working in supermarkets, Post people etc. etc. etc. Or just people like you and me that don’t want to bring it home to our loved ones
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  #6957  
Old 11.04.2020, 16:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Unlike the curve you posted there is no drop as it just show accumulated cases. If you are referring to the much lower daily new cases be aware about this two facts:
1. FPOH shows the date the swap was taken, not the date of the test result or publication date.
2. There is at least a 1-4 day delay from swap taken to test result published by FPOH (in some cases the delay is even longer).

Just like in the past, this numbers will considerably change over the next few days. What actually can clearly be seen in the FPOH graph is that on weekends less swaps are taken. Easter might have a similar effect and might add an extra processing delay. Keep this in mind when you start to cheer about the low numbers of new cases published during the next week.
Still, the total hospitalizations reported in corona-data.ch shows a clear improvement, and while end of March-beginning of April Vaud, Ticino and Geneve were at around 400 hospitalizations each and ZH around 200, now TI is at 297, VD 325 and ZH 149. GE is still at 379
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  #6958  
Old 11.04.2020, 16:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Will be interesting to see how the economy of each country has performed over the same period of time. If you put the increase like that, Sweden does look bad, but in absolute numbers, the death toll is still very low.

When the whole of Europe suffers 10 years of austerity as a result of this extended lockdown, I wonder if people won't look back at Sweden and think they did the right thing.
Europe will not suffer equally, that's for sure. I think Deutschland-uber-alles (and a few others) will recover very fast. And then will start to boss us all around, which will mean we're really back to business.
Austerity is nothing new, with or without the lockdown.
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  #6959  
Old 11.04.2020, 17:25
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Re: Coronavirus

I think we're just plain lucky here that there are no huge megalopolis cities in CH. Population and companies are quite spread-out. In places like NYC things are very different:
A paramedic's diary
12 dead on his ambulance shift had typical symptoms but none got tested or included in the official corona death numbers.
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  #6960  
Old 11.04.2020, 17:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Europe will not suffer equally, that's for sure. I think Deutschland-uber-alles (and a few others) will recover very fast. And then will start to boss us all around, which will mean we're really back to business.
Austerity is nothing new, with or without the lockdown.
What is it with the Germany obsession?
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