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  #6961  
Old 11.04.2020, 17:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is it with the Germany obsession?
It looks like they are doing a great job with whatever they do there, I am glad.
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  #6962  
Old 11.04.2020, 18:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is it with the Germany obsession?
The Germans always want to play this teutonic superiority thing.
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Old 11.04.2020, 20:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Unlike the curve you posted there is no drop as it just show accumulated cases. If you are referring to the much lower daily new cases be aware about this two facts:
1. FPOH shows the date the swap was taken, not the date of the test result or publication date.
2. There is at least a 1-4 day delay from swap taken to test result published by FPOH (in some cases the delay is even longer).

Just like in the past, this numbers will considerably change over the next few days. What actually can clearly be seen in the FPOH graph is that on weekends less swaps are taken. Easter might have a similar effect and might add an extra processing delay. Keep this in mind when you start to cheer about the low numbers of new cases published during the next week.
I never cheered about the low numbers of new cases published; I simply stated the there is no longer an exponential increase in new cases.
I posted the curve has flattened.

If you do not believe the curve has flattened then please do state that clearly.
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  #6964  
Old 11.04.2020, 20:17
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Re: Coronavirus

RIP Anastasia, a 36yr old Russian reporter, journalist and single mom of 2 children.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rfe.../30538929.html
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  #6965  
Old 11.04.2020, 20:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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They, Fauci et al, had us believe that in the best case scenario, if a lockdown took place then maybe just maybe, only 100,000 to 200,000 deaths would occur. And now that estimate has come down to 60,000? Sorry, but THAT is a fairly glaring difference. Whoever was in charge of the modeling did a pretty lousy job in my view.

It has already been a few months since the first case of corona was reported in late January in the US. As of this morning, the US reported approximately 16,500 deaths thus far. Note that according to CDC estimates, there were 23,000 to 65,000 deaths related to influenza between October 2019 and March 28, 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I am very worried about the long term effects this lockdown will have on the poor and working class notwithstanding small businesses.
Myself, I hope the forecast of 60,000 deaths is the worst case.
However sadly, I very much doubt there will be only 60,000 deaths!

Today the US report 20,000 deaths and a daily rate of over 2,000 new deaths. At this daily rate, the US will hit the forecast 60,000 deaths in only 20 days.
I hope this 60K death forecast is not overrun but with new US virus hot spots springing up daily then it is hard to imagine the daily rate of over 2,000 new deaths will collapse to almost zero in less than three weeks.

But who knows, miracles happen every day
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  #6966  
Old 11.04.2020, 20:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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It looks like they are doing a great job with whatever they do there, I am glad.
It's easy over there: all you have to do is close beergartens.
Seriously though: their curve looks very much like Italy's, only later and actually even a bit steeper. But they do test a lot, so dunno, guess cannot really directly compare. Deaths are fewer, but they do have a lot more beds, ventilators, etc. per mil than Italy. Anyways, Germany is nothing spectacular, the rate is steady and not decreasing. Austria and Australia look better.

Last edited by jimk; 11.04.2020 at 21:08.
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  #6967  
Old 11.04.2020, 22:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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The Germans always want to play this teutonic superiority thing.
By proving it. The bastards.
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  #6968  
Old 11.04.2020, 22:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is it with the Germany obsession?
Why do you assume it's an obsession? Just because it's been mentioned here?

Anyway, perhaps you should read the news. Personally I am discussing them with people from back home, nothing to share on EF. Enough with sharing.

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By proving it. The bastards.
Or so you think. I guess it depends on each person's worldview.

Btw, they thought that too about 75 years ago and it didn't end up too well.

Last edited by greenmount; 11.04.2020 at 23:42.
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  #6969  
Old 11.04.2020, 22:42
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Re: Coronavirus

Reuters news from Friday, I've removed some blabla (bold mine):
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(Reuters) - Apple Inc and Alphabet Inc's Google said on Friday that they will work together to create contact tracing technology that aims to slow the spread of the coronavirus by allowing users to opt into a system that catalogs other phones they have been near.

They will work together on technology that will allow mobile devices to trade information via Bluetooth connections to alert people when they have been in close proximity with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19, the sometimes deadly respiratory disease associated with the novel coronavirus.

The technology will first be available in mid-May as software tools available to contact tracing apps endorsed by public health authorities. However, Apple and Google also plan to build the tracking technology directly into their underlying operating systems in the coming months so that users do not have to download any apps to begin logging nearby phones.

The companies said the technology will not track the location or identity of users, but instead will only capture data about when users' phones have been near each other, with data being decrypted on the user's phone rather than the companies' servers. GPS location data is not part of the effort, the companies said.
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  #6970  
Old 11.04.2020, 23:54
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Re: Coronavirus

Yeah. They will be as "opt-in" as a WeChat Pay account in China.

This will be a challenge to people who write dystopian movie-scripts. They'll have to come up with new ideas because reality has mostly overtaken their imagination by now.
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  #6971  
Old 12.04.2020, 00:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Reuters news from Friday, I've removed some blabla (bold mine):
You see this as a benefit? That Apple and Google will now have a claim to legitimize their tracking of everyone because of corona?? Wow! On all levels... As if they were not tracking us before... You are incredibly naiive if you think this is a good thing!
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  #6972  
Old 12.04.2020, 00:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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You see this as a benefit? That Apple and Google will now have a claim to legitimize their tracking of everyone because of corona?? Wow! On all levels... As if they were not tracking us before... You are incredibly naiive if you think this is a good thing!
I didn't provide an opinion, what you allege is purely your phantasy.

If you're being tracked already what you fear will make zero difference. Doesn't look like logic is among your strengths.
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  #6973  
Old 12.04.2020, 03:33
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Re: Coronavirus

Worldometer is widely accepted as being a well regarded statistical reporting and modelling resource.

V__, terrifisch et al. might be interested to learn that according to Worldometer, COVID-19 is currently responsible for more than 4% of ALL DEATHS—by any cause—worldwide, each day; that's more than 1 in every 25 deaths, all round the world.

In the US, now the #1 country in the world for COVID-19 cases and deaths, more than 23% of all deaths yesterday were due to COVID-19. You read that right: 1,830 deaths from COVID-19 yesterday, compared to average deaths per day (in 2019) by all causes of 7,969.7. That's nearly 1 in every 4 deaths. COVID-19 deaths per day in the US are running at 170% (and climbing rapidly) of average deaths per day due to seasonal influenza.

Perhaps now it will be clear why sensible, scientifically minded people are very concerned about SARS-Cov-2, and why almost every government has taken unprecedented steps to slow or even halt the spread of the virus—even if their actions do cause some economic hardship. The obvious solution to the economic hardship is social support on a global scale.

I suspect it's this necessary swing to a more socialised political model that is scaring the pants off our little band of coronavirus deniers, rather than a genuine belief that the disease is "just the 'flu" and does not merit substantial preventive or prophylactic action.
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  #6974  
Old 12.04.2020, 06:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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... sensible, scientifically minded people are very concerned about SARS-Cov-2....
In addition to the numbers of cases collected in the various statistics, there's also the very personal report of Anthony Almojera, who describes the pain of the current paramedic work in NY:
As a senior paramedic in New York City, Anthony Almojera is used to being close to death. But nothing in his 17-year career could have prepared him for the outbreak of coronavirus.

who wrote, quite simply:
"You can have a busy day sometimes, but never this."

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I think we're just plain lucky here that there are no huge megalopolis cities in CH. Population and companies are quite spread-out. In places like NYC things are very different:
A paramedic's diary
12 dead on his ambulance shift had typical symptoms but none got tested or included in the official corona death numbers.
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  #6975  
Old 12.04.2020, 07:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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As a senior paramedic in New York City, Anthony Almojera is used to being close to death. But nothing in his 17-year career could have prepared him for the outbreak of coronavirus.

who wrote, quite simply:
"You can have a busy day sometimes, but never this."

See here:
I read the interview with a doctor who took care of severely ill patients back home, in a municipality that has more cases than others. They, the doctors, are on their knees in that hospital. One patient asked him to not try anything anymore, just let him die. This doctor, God please help him to survive, to stay healthy, will be for ever traumatised. And we talk about people who have seen everything, everything doropfiz..
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Old 12.04.2020, 09:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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A paramedic's diary
12 dead on his ambulance shift had typical symptoms but none got tested or included in the official corona death numbers.
Granted, the daily figures being given in many countries are for the people who died of covid in hospital, but if someone dies outside of hospital and who was not under the care of a doctor with a diagnosed illness, usually an autopsy is legally required. I've no idea if autopsies are still being performed in the usual manner.

For stats people, mathematician Dr. Hannah Fry did an excellent round up of the maths modelling on 'Horizon 2020: Coronavirus Special: Part 1' this week. Well worth a watch if you can access it. I'd also strongly recommend it being shown to people who may struggle with understanding what's happening because it tracks the course of the virus in a logical, non-threatening way.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000h3nm
Some of you might remember Dr. Hannah Fry from her work on 'BBC Four: Contagion. The BBC Four Pandemic' (2018) which led to the largest data sample study of how a contagion would spread by using data from a cell phone app. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/pro.../dr-hannah-fry
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  #6977  
Old 12.04.2020, 09:57
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Re: Coronavirus

@22 Yards

According to WHO, Worldwide, seasonal flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths annually.

Source

If we take the worst case 650 000 that is around 1,800 per day.
Daily COV-19 deaths from Worldometer currently are over 6,000 per day, between 350% and 700% more than flu deaths.
So this is a mean of 5 times the number of seasonal flu deaths.
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  #6978  
Old 12.04.2020, 10:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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@22 Yards

According to WHO, Worldwide, seasonal flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths annually.

Source

If we take the worst case 650 000 that is around 1,800 per day.
Daily COV-19 deaths from Worldometer currently are over 6,000 per day, between 350% and 700% more than flu deaths.
So this is a mean of 5 times the number of seasonal flu deaths.
C'mon marton, that myth with the new bug being like a seasonal flu we debunked long ago. It's more like a viral pneumonia, not a cold. Some estimated 20-30% cases are asymptomatic and about the same percentage of the confirmed ones can go really bad. But OK, let's say we don't have reliable data yet.

It's worrying how many people relaxed and think the lockdown and social distancing were unnecessary. And that economy should come first*, not public health. I'm disappointed.
*before anyone jumps, I do realise we can't survive without certain economic activities.
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  #6979  
Old 12.04.2020, 10:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Granted, the daily figures being given in many countries are for the people who died of covid in hospital, but if someone dies outside of hospital and who was not under the care of a doctor with a diagnosed illness, usually an autopsy is legally required. I've no idea if autopsies are still being performed in the usual manner.
I'm not completely sure, but I think that in Switzerland - even in non-Corona times - autopsies are not usual, nor legally required.

When someone dies outside of a hospital, a doctor must be called, to certify that the person is, indeed, dead. The doctor documents a probable cause of death, as far as it seems reasonable upon inspection, on site.

Autospies become necessary only if there is confusion or uncertainty about the cause of death, or if there is any reason to suspect a criminal act which might have caused the death. If the witnesses, or those finding the body, or the doctor, suspect that could be the case, or wish to record what happened more fully, in the hope of ruling out that possibility, they do well to call the police to attend to the body at the same time as the doctor. ("Exit", for example, always calls both a doctor and the police, when someone has ended their lives with their assistance.)

In the case of a death with the acute, advanced symptoms of this particular viral infection, it seems to be clear that the cause of death is respiratory failure following by successive organ failure. I doubt that any autopsies will be done.

In Switzerland (just like in the NYC paramedic's report), they don't even test a body, if the person was not tested when still alive. Therefore, here, too, people who die - whether at home, in the ambulance, or even in hospital - but who have not yet been tested positive, do not get counted in the statisitcs... even if the doctors and nurses are sure of what they have witnessed, from identical tested cases.
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Old 12.04.2020, 10:10
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Re: Coronavirus

@doropfiz
I posted earlier that in the US coroners and medical examiners are complaining they do not have enough test kits to certify COV-19 deaths even when that is obviously the cause.
This includes Wyoming which is still claiming zero deaths.

The issue is mainly about certifying people found dead at home which seems to be increasing in the US according to the same US coroners and medical examiners.
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