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Old 13.04.2020, 10:12
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Re: Coronavirus

It seems to me that it is some kind of anti-panic prophylaxis more than a genuine denial, by some of the people here.

To get back to measures and loosening - Czech gov might review their plan since the discipline by general public has soften this wknd, too many people outside and some not wearing masks.
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  #7062  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't quite understand why, but you seem to be showing just how successful the measures taken so far have been in avoiding this virus becoming a major killer, while on the other hand suggesting that we shouldn't have bothered doing anything about it.

What are you fighting here? Your own arguments?
I think by now we can understand that the measures have not changed anything and perhaps done more damage than good. Sweden is a good example. Sweden has been living normally for 1 month, everybody have been predicting a carnage in 1 week, 10 days etc etc and nothing has materialized?

If you look at computational study done by Department of Bioscience and Engineering at ETH Zurich the R number was already below 1 in Switzerland before activating the lock down measures. Once people started to care more about hygiene, the spread stopped. So the corona virus was already in decline when we closed the schools and shops. In other words, the lock down did absolutely nothing

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  #7063  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well if we look at the complete graph, we are still behind the 2015 flu year, but as we didn't panic back than and we didn't close everything and we didn't contribute every 90+ death to corona we are still behind the 2015 numbers



But what is more important is to look at the age groups of corona deaths in Switzerland (which correspond to other countries as well)



Below 50 years old there have been 5 deaths

Between 50 ans 59 there have been 19 deaths

Between 60 and 69 there have been 69

Between 70 and 79 there have been 188

80+ there have been 580 deaths

So if we don't count the 80+ which are huge majority of cases and let's face it it's nothing abnormal for 80+ people to die as the life expectancy is 82 years in Switzerland, in the 70-79 bracket as well nothing abnormal for death at that age given how we live today, we are left with only 80 cases in the 50-69 bracket and 5 cases in the young below 50 bracket

So... what are we fighting here? The circle of life?
These numbers reflect a month of lockdown.
It's like saying "Why did the fire department come to put out the fire - look, the the fire is now much less, so they didn't need to come"

It is true that the average years of lost life per death is low (<5years).
But that is only the mortality (deaths).
You must also consider morbidity. People who didn't die, but were hospitalised and after recovery have sustained serious, possibly lasting damage.
Also, consider PTSD from health care workers.

Do a google on "long term effects SARS" (or MERS)
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Old 13.04.2020, 10:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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It seems to me that it is some kind of anti-panic prophylaxis more than a genuine denial, by some of the people here.

To get back to measures and loosening - Czech gov might review their plan since the discipline by general public has soften this wknd, too many people outside and some not wearing masks.
Wearing a mask outside is completely and utterly unnecessary.
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  #7065  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think by now we can understand that the measures have not changed anything and perhaps done more damage than good.
You may think that, you may think what you like. But who is the 'we' you're referring to?
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Old 13.04.2020, 10:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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These numbers reflect a month of lockdown.
It's like saying "Why did the fire department come to put out the fire - look, the the fire is now much less, so they didn't need to come"
So you say Swiss numbers are like that due to the lock down?

Let's see Swedish numbers without lock down:



Hey...are they....the same...like locked down Switzerland?
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  #7067  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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So you say Swiss numbers are like that due to the lock down?

Let's see Swedish numbers without lock down:



Hey...are they....the same...like locked down Switzerland?
Sweden have flattened the curve without any additional measures. What that shows is not that you can carry on as normal - that leads to exponential growth, but that by (enough) people paying attention to social distancing and general hygiene you get the infection rate under control without closing shops and the like. We actually knew that already from Singapore (I accept that we needed to see it a Western country first to be safe). The debate should be over.

Europe has made a complete balls up of this situation. A total under reaction at first letting planes fly in from China when it was obvious that a pandemic was starting which cost thousands of lives followed by an complete over reaction after the event which'll have an even bigger effect. Wrong wrong wrong.

In Switzerland we are now at somewhere between a fifth and a third of the number of the new cases at the peak. It's probably even better than that in reality because we are testing more people proportionately to the number of new cases. We can be really quite sure that reopening (slowly) will not cause a rebound, so why are we waiting... There was no need to extend the 19 April date. It was based on a premise that "we don't know we are passed the peak yet", I mean wtf. Yes we do. It was two weeks ago already.

My prediction for what happens next. We wait ages to get anything open, the cases drop to pretty much 0 (under 100 a day). Eventually we reopen, people get bored of lockdown come the summer, make the choice that the risk is very low and go back to normal, and then we get the second spike. In Sweden things bubble along at a low level for ages and they are more or less ok having not followed the deeply damaging boom and bust approach.

If you say this of course you get ad hominem attacks with people calling you evil and selfish (despite having not much to gain personally) and not caring about shop workers and that you have no brain.

Last edited by jorido; 13.04.2020 at 10:58.
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  #7068  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wearing a mask outside is completely and utterly unnecessary.
French TV Covid19 campaign added in their gov spots that even speaking can shed the virus. We noticed the campaign change yesterday. So unless one plans to be outside and not talk to anyone other than from one's household (mind you that France allows only 2 people to group together, I think it is also only one from one's household can go out now)..I think the precautions are put in place to double on the protection in case that people cannot for whatever reason keep a safe physical distance. So, if one is in the open air, meets nobody or keeps a safe distance and talks to nobody, then masks might be utterly and completely unecessary.
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  #7069  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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So you say Swiss numbers are like that due to the lock down?

Let's see Swedish numbers without lock down:

Hey...are they....the same...like locked down Switzerland?
Switzerland is next to Italy, and was exposed earlier
Sweden's rate of increase in deaths is currently double Switzerland.
(5x rate of increase Mar 31 to April 10th vs 2.5 for Switzerland)

Also, Sweden's population density is 1/9th that of Switzerland.
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  #7070  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sweden have flattened the curve without any additional measures.
Swedish gov has closed all universities and upper secondary schools. It has been busy: https://www.government.se/government...-for-covid-19/

I agree that the measures have been different than other in other countries. Probably due to the nature of spread (timing mainly) in other countries, tracking and testing.

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Europe has made a complete balls up of this situation. A total under reaction at first letting planes fly in from China when it was obvious that a pandemic was starting which cost thousands of lives followed by an complete over reaction after the event which'll have an even bigger effect.
Not just planes but borders opened till too late also, me thinks. I agree with what you wrote. EU criticised the closures of borders. Border closing is the only possible final measure if your neighbor unsynchronisingly keeps the planes from China flying in.
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Old 13.04.2020, 10:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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So you say Swiss numbers are like that due to the lock down?

Let's see Swedish numbers without lock down:

Hey...are they....the same...like locked down Switzerland?
To be fair, with the numbers here rising so quickly in early March we probably did need a lock down to avoid overloading the hospitals. Especially with the lack of data at the time. I think if there is any risk of that the only responsible decision is to lockdown.
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Old 13.04.2020, 10:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland is next to Italy, and was exposed earlier
Sweden's rate of increase in deaths is currently double Switzerland.
(5x rate of increase Mar 31 to April 10th vs 2.5 for Switzerland)

Also, Sweden's population density is 1/9th that of Switzerland.
That’s the thing, you can’t directly compare Switzerland to Sweden as there are a lot of variables that need to be taken into consideration but that wouldn’t fit with V_’s narrative.


The simple answer is that at the moment we just don’t know which approach is best.
Until we have more data and longer term results and information about the virus everything is just guesswork.

Last edited by Belgianmum; 13.04.2020 at 11:41.
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  #7073  
Old 13.04.2020, 11:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't quite understand why, but you seem to be showing just how successful the measures taken so far have been in avoiding this virus becoming a major killer, while on the other hand suggesting that we shouldn't have bothered doing anything about it.

So... what are you fighting here? Your own arguments?
To be fair, the ratio of 80+ deaths to young people is interesting, even if perhaps there is a bit of over extrapolation of the data. The death rate for the under 65s must be even lower than I had imagined, really tiny.

Last edited by jorido; 13.04.2020 at 11:21.
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Old 13.04.2020, 11:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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French TV Covid19 campaign added in their gov spots that even speaking can shed the virus. We noticed the campaign change yesterday. So unless one plans to be outside and not talk to anyone other than from one's household (mind you that France allows only 2 people to group together, I think it is also only one from one's household can go out now)..I think the precautions are put in place to double on the protection in case that people cannot for whatever reason keep a safe physical distance. So, if one is in the open air, meets nobody or keeps a safe distance and talks to nobody, then masks might be utterly and completely unecessary.
The French have made the biggest mess of this situation of any country in Europe, with the possible exception of us Brits. Forgive me if I don't take their advice with any seriousness whatsoever!

I mean having to carry a bit of paper to go outside for a walk is a complete joke. We haven't put that in place in Switzerland, we were hard hit and yet we seem to be doing very well. It's been comprehensively shown that you don't need to restrict outside behaviour to get the disease under control, so why are they doing it. That should be a real civil liberties matter. As is the apparent banning of going for a country walk in the UK.

I agree that it is theoretically possible to catch the disease outside, but it's so vanishingly unlikely if you are social distancing as to be irrelevant. I'd be donating the masks to the hospitals instead personally, at least if I were under 70 and well.
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Old 13.04.2020, 11:24
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Re: Coronavirus

What is with this Sweden was right, Switzerland was wrong myth.
Sweden has had restrictions and is known a country with high social cohesion/pressure to behave sensibly. It also does did not have thousands of people commuting from northern Italy every day before the lockdown. It has a geographical advantage being relatively isolated in the north of Europe and with a low population density, even in the cities. Time will tell how successful the Swedes have been -their strategy was not without increased risk -the Swiss mentality would be to take less risk.
The numbers coming out of all countries are so difficult to compare because of differences in testing, reporting and assignment of causes of death.
Corona deaths are starting to affect the normal weekly or monthly total death numbers in some places. Just this fact alone should start to wake a few people out of their scepticism/complacency.
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Old 13.04.2020, 11:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland is next to Italy, and was exposed earlier
Sweden's rate of increase in deaths is currently double Switzerland.
(5x rate of increase Mar 31 to April 10th vs 2.5 for Switzerland)

Also, Sweden's population density is 1/9th that of Switzerland.
Sweden is (slightly) more populous than Switzerland. Stockholm is (slightly) bigger than Zurich. The population of Gothenburg and Malmo are similar to Geneva and Basel respectively.

In other words, I think Sweden's population is not significantly more rural than Switzerland's. The fact it has miles and miles of completely empty northern forests doesn't change that fact. Looking at population density as a whole is just not a worthwhile statistic. The USA has a low population density. The presence of Alaska and Wyoming doesn't stop the disease from spreading in NYC.
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Old 13.04.2020, 11:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona deaths are starting to affect the normal weekly or monthly total death numbers in some places. Just this fact alone should start to wake a few people out of their scepticism/complacency.
You would base public policy on a deeply lagging indicator? That just reflects the fact that the disease takes a while to kill, and the peak was a while (2 weeks) ago.

I'm also not sure why you think the Swiss will behave any differently to the Swedes. The Swiss aren't exactly known for their wild parties.
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Old 13.04.2020, 11:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is with this Sweden was right, Switzerland was wrong myth?
Irrelevant, is what it is.

But some people seem determined to criticise one country's action by comparing it with another, however often the differences are pointed out to them. Why they can't just be happy that we've not already got tens of thousands of people dying, hospitals overwhelmed, mob rule on the streets and a complete breakdown of society I don't know.

For me, sat in my house in France, I'm quite pleased that the world around me is still, apparently, relatively safe. Count your blessings, I say.
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Old 13.04.2020, 11:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland is next to Italy, and was exposed earlier
Sweden's rate of increase in deaths is currently double Switzerland.
(5x rate of increase Mar 31 to April 10th vs 2.5 for Switzerland)

Also, Sweden's population density is 1/9th that of Switzerland.
Facts.
In Switzerland people lives much more closer to eachother and there are very few spaces where you can be alone here. Hell, even the mountain tops are busy.
In Sweden, you can drive 5-10 minutes from your house and find a place where you're completely alone. It's a large country with a low population.

@jorido
"In Sweden things bubble along at a low level for ages and they are more or less ok having not followed the deeply damaging boom and bust approach."
The worst peak is expected the next coming 2-3 weeks in Sweden. We have not seen the outcome on the Swedish healthcare system just yet.
The nurses and doctors in Sweden has already reported that they are missing protective gear. They are getting instructions that they have to use the protective gear they sparsely.
If they for example has to stick their head into a room where infected people lies, they are told not to wear any masks. To save gloves and instead wash their hands in many cases.
We already have a handful of doctor and nurses laying infected with serious conditions because of this and it will get worse. So it's still to early to come to any conclusion.

@jorido
"What that shows is not that you can carry on as normal - that leads to exponential growth, but that by (enough) people paying attention to social distancing and general hygiene you get the infection rate under control without closing shops and the like"
Swedes were not taking enough responsibility to social distance themselves. Look at all the pictures from Stockholm,(the highest infected city) where people sits in the hundreds on cafe's and bars.
Many of them have the attitude "I don't care i will survive a infection". Egoistic and ignorant because they don't care about the older people that will outright die out of the infection, to not talk about the higher pressure it will put on the health care in Sweden that is already overburdened.
So no, the Swedes has not been taking the proper measures and socially distanced themselves.

@jorido
"In other words, I think Sweden's population is not significantly more rural than Switzerland's. The fact it has miles and miles of completely empty northern forests doesn't change that fact. Looking at population density as a whole is just not a worthwhile statistic. "
I can tell you have not been to Sweden.
We have Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmo. Three cities that can be compared to other cities in Switzerland. But, as soon as you get 20km outside of those cities the density of people drops immensely.
Many people have a good amount of distance to their neighbours and you can easily avoid other people if you want to(The Swedes are experts at avoiding other people, even before Corona)
In Switzerland, you have villages connected to eacother so that you can barely tell the different villages apart.
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Old 13.04.2020, 12:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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You would base public policy on a deeply lagging indicator? That just reflects the fact that the disease takes a while to kill, and the peak was a while (2 weeks) ago.

I'm also not sure why you think the Swiss will behave any differently to the Swedes. The Swiss aren't exactly known for their wild parties.
You are missing the point.
I do not expect the Swedes to behave very differently to the Swiss.

Corona numbers are unreliable.
Total number of reported deaths is a more reliable indicator.

That corona deaths demonstrably affect these numbers shows you have a major health problem. That it is a "too-late" indicator is why countries are putting lock-down measures in place before these numbers rise. It is not just to decrease the pressure on the hospitals - the herd immunity theory is discredited. The actual number of sick/dead in the long run will be lower with restrictions in place - that is what the models show - no one knows how it will turn out -we can just take sensible measures and hope.
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