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  #7081  
Old 13.04.2020, 12:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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The French have made the biggest mess of this situation of any country in Europe, with the possible exception of us Brits. Forgive me if I don't take their advice with any seriousness whatsoever!

I mean having to carry a bit of paper to go outside for a walk is a complete joke. We haven't put that in place in Switzerland, we were hard hit and yet we seem to be doing very well.
Because, Switzerland. People bunkered in responsibly. There are spoilsports everywhere, even here, but others count on that so they restrict themselves even more.

In the meantime, in France 10 days ago, Paris streets were packed as they thought nobody should be kept inside in such a wonderful weather! Considering Paris density and TGVs trucking sick people to hospitals to the areas that are less affected..Heck, Czech hospitals are taking in French Covid19 patients. Because, France. Social distancing works somewhere and somewhere you can only allow people out with masks on. While Czechs are not allowed out much, food/meds only, and with masks on only. Hence, we have cca 6000 infected and 164 deaths. We are still within the precious window where we can effectively test selectively and trace contacts. The reason why the country is in a complete halt is to prolong this precious window. It will loosen up the rules asap, though, with the exception of the schools, border closure and mass transport, according to my estimates.

You cannot shrug off adherence to rules as an unimportant factor and if measures don't work, block the passage of virus sheding, mouths, nouse...and don't permit people to hang outside if they cannot practice social distancing effectively (which in packed areas is tough).

Sweden has roughly the same % of over 65yr population as Switzerland. But CH is more dense. Countries around Sweden blocked transit well, too.

UK is in trouble, I guess, for the same reasons as in France. Not understanding the mechanics of spread? Density? Late action?
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  #7082  
Old 13.04.2020, 12:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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So you say Swiss numbers are like that due to the lock down?

Let's see Swedish numbers without lock down:

[img]...[/img]

Hey...are they....the same...like locked down Switzerland?
Let's have a look at some more numbers that give us an insight in the actual situation of spread.

Switzerland 1st of April up to now a small decline in amount of people on IC.
Sweden 1st of april up to now 60% growth of amount of people on IC.

Switzerland 1st of April up to now a decline of 10% in amount of people in regular hospital.
Sweden 1st of april up to now 50% growth of amount of people in hospital for regular care.

Switzerland has always been able to offer all who needed it a spot on the IC, Sweden has started putting people in IC in tents on parking spots with old equipment.

So how exactly is the situation the same?
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  #7083  
Old 13.04.2020, 12:57
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Re: Coronavirus

I am amazed how many of you are STILL spending so much time and effort writing so many responses to V__ in this thread. He is clearly talking a ton of subjective ****, mostly in direct contrast to the evidence that is freely available to us and you guys are still sitting there churning out lengthy rebuttals, as though what he is writing is somehow worthy of serious debate?

Some of you really must have nothing better to do with your valuable time if you throw it away so freely.
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  #7084  
Old 13.04.2020, 13:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am amazed how many of you are STILL spending so much time and effort writing so many responses to V__ in this thread. He is clearly talking a ton of subjective ****, mostly in direct contrast to the evidence that is freely available to us and you guys are still sitting there churning out lengthy rebuttals, as though what he is writing is somehow worthy of serious debate?

Some of you really must have nothing better to do with your valuable time if you throw it away so freely.
Time is indeed not a problem atm

It's more that his trolling seems to gain support, would be good if those people see what is actually happening instead of his cherry picking and twisting facts to fit his narrative.
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Time is indeed not a problem atm

It's more that his trolling seems to gain support, would be good if those people see what is actually happening instead of his cherry picking and twisting facts to fit his narrative.
But in most cases, rebuttals are simply preaching to the choir (those who agree will continue to agree on either side). Or maybe thanking to encourage debate? Dunno.
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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... In Sweden things bubble along at a low level for ages ...
just where do you see this? if you look at their curve, it's been exponential from mid-March onward and only the last 3 days show reduction of new cases (which may simply mean less testing over Easter, for all we know)
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  #7087  
Old 13.04.2020, 13:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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just where do you see this? if you look at their curve, it's been exponential from mid-March onward and only the last 3 days show reduction of new cases (which may simply mean less testing over Easter, for all we know)
If you look at the log plot of cases and deaths it's definitely flattening over time. Obviously if they are in trouble with icu capacity as Edwin suggested that they need to up their game a bit. I think only V___ takes issue with this.
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  #7088  
Old 13.04.2020, 13:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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UK is in trouble, I guess, for the same reasons as in France. Not understanding the mechanics of spread? Density? Late action?
No. They're in trouble for entirely different reasons.

In France, there was a mass exodus from Paris into the country.
https://www.economist.com/europe/202...dus-from-paris

In the UK, gatherings weren't limited until it was too late, with major sporting events such as Cheltenham, going ahead. 250,000 people gathered for that racing festival on 16-19 March, despite this:
16 March - 1,543 diagnosed cases + 20 new fatalities bringing the total to 55.
19 March - 3,269 diagnosed cases + 40 new fatalities bringing the total to 144.

On the following day, 20 March, the UK gov announced that pubs, etc, would be closed from midnight.

Compare that to Switzerland who introduced the 1,000 limit on gatherings on 28 Feb when there were only 5 diagnosed cases and 0 fatalities.

When all this is done, history will see the decisions to hold the Atalanta vs Valencia match in Milan, and the Cheltenham Festival in a very, very dim light.

'Game Zero' https://www.insider.com/coronavirus-...-spread-2020-3
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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No. They're in trouble for entirely different reasons.

In France, there was a mass exodus from Paris into the country.
https://www.economist.com/europe/202...dus-from-paris

In the UK, gatherings weren't limited until it was too late, with major sporting events such as Cheltenham, going ahead. 250,000 people gathered for that racing festival on 16-19 March, despite this:
16 March - 1,543 diagnosed cases + 20 new fatalities bringing the total to 55.
19 March - 3,269 diagnosed cases + 40 new fatalities bringing the total to 144.

On the following day, 20 March, the UK gov announced that pubs, etc, would be closed from midnight.

Compare that to Switzerland who introduced the 1,000 limit on gatherings on 28 Feb when there were only 5 diagnosed cases and 0 fatalities.

When all this is done, history will see the decisions to hold the Atalanta vs Valencia match in Milan, and the Cheltenham Festival in a very, very dim light.

'Game Zero' https://www.insider.com/coronavirus-...-spread-2020-3
I couldn't believe that Cheltenham was allowed to go on. For me that was simply a National embarrassment, as well as pointing to the lack of common sense of people who attended. The rugby the week before was bad enough.

I was relieved when Switzerland very wisely cancelled Fasnacht. The first case was only diagnosed about a week beforehand, so that was a brave decision that will have saved a lot of lives. It's very simple. Behaviour that is conducive to an infection rate greater than 1 cannot happen.

Last edited by jorido; 13.04.2020 at 13:36.
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you look at the log plot of cases and deaths it's definitely flattening over time. Obviously if they are in trouble with icu capacity as Edwin suggested that they need to up their game a bit. I think only V___ takes issue with this.
Since Stockholm now has confirmed cases in a 3rd of all their elderly home centers I'd fear Sweden still has to reach their peak.

They also test way to little, they only found 10.729 infected people, of which 2083 are in hospital and 930 have died.
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  #7091  
Old 13.04.2020, 13:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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No. They're in trouble for entirely different reasons.

In France, there was a mass exodus from Paris into the country.
https://www.economist.com/europe/202...dus-from-paris

In the UK, gatherings weren't limited until it was too late, with major sporting events such as Cheltenham, going ahead. 250,000 people gathered for that racing festival on 16-19 March, despite this:
16 March - 1,543 diagnosed cases + 20 new fatalities bringing the total to 55.
19 March - 3,269 diagnosed cases + 40 new fatalities bringing the total to 144.

On the following day, 20 March, the UK gov announced that pubs, etc, would be closed from midnight.

Compare that to Switzerland who introduced the 1,000 limit on gatherings on 28 Feb when there were only 5 diagnosed cases and 0 fatalities.

When all this is done, history will see the decisions to hold the Atalanta vs Valencia match in Milan, and the Cheltenham Festival in a very, very dim light.

'Game Zero' https://www.insider.com/coronavirus-...-spread-2020-3
So, exactly as I said. Late measures. Not understanding the mechanics.

BBC reported a little while back that people are still getting arrested up north, it was Manchester, because they are throwing parties. Doesn't show much adherence to measures. I forgot the legal term the cops used in their charges.

French exodus to the countryside was caused by not understanding that people carry virus asymptomatically, they in fact are the vectors and why should Parisians adhere to movement restriction, right? And then the stricter measures finally came, movement is even less free now there, thankfully. Now they are advertising that people should get used to the idea of masks. I think it is because people still don't get that it is not to protect them but others.

That said, I think looking back doesn't serve that much. Looking towards places that contained and controlled and towards med research is, imho, the right way. I also agree that as we speak the life-saving "draconial" measures are creating other tough future situations, it cannot be ignored now.

The UK calling for retired MDs and nurses is something that maybe shows that the gov has on one hand one policy for public and another rhetorics when really looking at the quantified risk stats, in their private negotiations. Maybe the risks aren't that high when they are calling for over the 65yr helpers? Or maybe they managed to finally have enough protective gear?
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Last edited by MusicChick; 13.04.2020 at 14:30.
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  #7092  
Old 13.04.2020, 13:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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I couldn't believe that Cheltenham was allowed to go on. For me that was simply a National embarrassment, as well as pointing to the lack of common sense of people who attended. The rugby the week before was bad enough.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid on 11 March is another one. 3,000 fans were allowed to travel to Liverpool despite their own stadium being closed to fans, and even marched through the city. At the time, Spain had 2,277 cases and 55 fatalities, whilst the UK had 460 cases and 8 fatalities. It's as if football has played pass the biological time bomb.
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news...rpool-17905339
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I couldn't believe that Cheltenham was allowed to go on. For me that was simply a National embarrassment, as well as pointing to the lack of common sense of people who attended. The rugby the week before was bad enough.

I was relieved when Switzerland very wisely cancelled Fasnacht. The first case was only diagnosed about a week beforehand, so that was a brave decision that will have saved a lot of lives. It's very simple.
Yep, the Netherlands let Carnaval happen based on some utterly stupid assumptions.

- People with symptoms will stay at home voluntarily (Yeah, right...)
- People without symptoms cannot spread the virus. (proven to be wrong at that time already)
- Carnaval is celebrated in small groups (lol, in what cave do those experts live)

Regions that celebrated carnaval are the worst hit regions in the Netherlands.
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:44
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Re: Coronavirus

I'd like to briefly point out that when I advocate reopening on here, I mean allowing sunbathing (banned in uk), reopening shops with social distancing not football or carnival!
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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So, exactly as I said. Late measures. Not understanding the mechanics.
France was caused by dispersion from a hotspot and the UK by gathering and creating viral time bombs. Everyone understood the mechanics and everyone was free to act within their own judgement, e.g. I stopped going into Zurich 24 days before lockdown. I'm lucky to have had that choice. My partner began working from home 10 days before lockdown. He's lucky his employer had the foresight and was proactive. The events I gave were examples of people using their free will in a manner which will most likely be viewed as foolhardy at best, and catastrophic at worst in years to come. None of them were forced to be in those situations.
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'd like to briefly point out that when I advocate reopening on here, I mean shops with social distancing not football or carnival!
Austria reopening stores smaller than 400m2. CZ reopening diy and bike stores (low customer contact), but they might close again since the cops had to fine too many getting a bit too happy about Easter. CZ insists on masks for all except runner and bikers, Austria requests masks in stores and public transport tomorrow if I remember well. CZ makes their own masks, Austria has secured enough of them in the meantime it seems.

My US friends make their own masks, a buddy made 50 for the local hospital and now she's making scrub hats for the hospital too, since there is a shortage where she is.

Btw, my GP has asked me to come in with a mask on. He also said that it is very probable that people will be requested to wear masks when the measures loosen. I think we are now watching Sweden more than places where the curve has flatten.
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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France was caused by dispersion from a hotspot and the UK by gathering and creating viral time bombs. Everyone understood the mechanics and everyone was free to act within their own judgement, e.g. I stopped going into Zurich 24 days before lockdown. I'm lucky to have had that choice. My partner began working from home 10 days before lockdown. He's lucky his employer had the foresight and was proactive. The events I gave were examples of people using their free will in a manner which will most likely be viewed as foolhardy at best, and catastrophic at worst in years to come. None of them were forced to be in those situations.
I was getting rather nervous being in the office in early to mid March. I only started my job on 1 March so didn't fancy making any decision on my own!
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Old 13.04.2020, 13:51
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So, exactly as I said. Late measures. Not understanding the mechanics.

BBC reported a little while back that people are still getting arrested up north, it was Manchester, because they are throwing parties. Doesn't show much adherence to measures. I forgot the legal term the cops used in their charges.

French exodus to the countryside was caused by not understanding that people carry virus assymptomatically, they in fact are the vectors and why should Parisians adhere to movement restriction, right? And then the stricter measures finally came, movement is even less free now there, thankfully. Now they are advertising that people should get used to the idea of masks. I think it is still because because people still don't get that it is not to protect them but others.

That said, I think looking back doesn't serve that much. Looking towards places that contained and controlled and towards med research is, imho, the right way. I also agree that as we speak the life-saving "draconial" measures are creating other tough future situations, it cannot be ignored now.

The UK calling for retired MDs and nurses is something that maybe shows that the gov has on one hand one policy for public and another rhetorics when really looking at the quantified risk stats, in their private negotiations. Maybe the risks aren't that high when they are calling for over the 65yr helpers? Or maybe they managed to finally have enough protective gear?

The original plan was to wait it out and rely on herd immunity. Until someone clearly did the maths and pointed out that a 2% (?) death toll was actually a fork tonne of bodies and, quite possibly, the optics weren't too good as a consequence.

I don't think a lot of the retired are over 65.

The risks are high. There isn't enough protective gear. My friend and her colleagues ran out of PPE halfway through their last 12 hour shift caring for Covid 19 patients.

Regarding the arrests: yep, sadly there are idiots everywhere.
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Old 13.04.2020, 14:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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That said, I think looking back doesn't serve that much.
It's critical because there will be future pandemics, hopefully not in our lifetime, but there will.

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The UK calling for retired MDs and nurses is something that maybe shows that the gov has on one hand one policy for public and another rhetorics when really looking at the quantified risk stats, in their private negotiations. Maybe the risks aren't that high when they are calling for over the 65yr helpers? Or maybe they managed to finally have enough protective gear?
Let me introduce you to @NursingNotesUK https://twitter.com/NursingNotesUK

41 health and social care workers have now died. Italy has lost over 100 health care workers including 2 suicides.

Yesterday, the UK gov sent out 2 ministers on tv to say "They have a plan for distributing PPE". A plan?! A freakin' plan?!!!

As of Saturday...
Zurich Canton population 1.521 million
2,987 covid cases, 64 fatalities.
Wigan Borough, Lancs, population 326,088
253 covid cases, 36 fatalities.

Even if you apply a very conservative estimate that 1% of diagnosed cases result in a fatality, it's clear to see that the 'stats' are way off kilter for how many cases are active within the community, and until that circle is squared, there's no way of safely releasing lockdown.
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Old 13.04.2020, 14:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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The original plan was to wait it out and rely on herd immunity. Until someone clearly did the maths and pointed out that a 2% (?) death toll was actually a fork tonne of bodies and, quite possibly, the optics weren't too good as a consequence.

I don't think a lot of the retired are over 65.

The risks are high. There isn't enough protective gear. My friend and her colleagues ran out of PPE halfway through their last 12 hour shift caring for Covid 19 patients.

Regarding the arrests: yep, sadly there are idiots everywhere.
Re death toll. It's clearly too early to be sure, and will be until we've got some antibody testing but that's probably too high.

For instance, Iceland which is at an advanced stage with almost no new cases is at 0.5%. Granted another death or two could come in, but they'll have missed a lot (possibly most) of the cases despite being pretty much the best equipped nation as regards testing.

Diamond Princess is a well tested mature and closed environment and ran at 1.5%. Obviously we have to bear in mind that's with cruise ship (I.e. elderly) demographics.

I'd expect it to be well under 1% in a demographically normal sample. Whether it turns to be as low as the alleged 0.16% in China outside Hubei I do doubt. If I had to guess, maybe around 0.5, perhaps 0.7.
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