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Old 14.04.2020, 22:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't always agree with your posts, and think your use of data is a bit selective, but this is spot on. Human beings are terrible at judging risk. We let simple treatable chronic diseases kill millions, and then panic over relatively mild acute diseases such as this one.
Which simple treatable chronic diseases do you have in mind?
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Old 14.04.2020, 22:20
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Re: Coronavirus

IMF missive says: "Uncertainty and reduced demand for services could be even worse in a scenario of greater spread without social distancing."

I hope gradual re-opening during the "post-hammer dance" period, eventual developing of the vaccine, etc. will lead to a strong economic rebound quickly enough. Some businesses will fail, some will adjust, kind of survival of the fittest. Employers will hire people back, although not everybody right away. World certainly is not going to be the same, but close.
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Old 14.04.2020, 22:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which simple treatable chronic diseases do you have in mind?
Obesity and smoking related issues. HIV (will still kill more people than covid does, and typically young people at that) , Mental health., alcohol abuse, Vitamin A deficiency (kills more children each year than covid does elderly adults, blinds a similar number). If I'm allowed to cheat a bit and go onto largely preventable acute diseases - malaria. You can save a victim for dying of malaria for £5000 on average. What does a covid victim cost?

I'm not saying it's an either or. That's pointless whataboutery. Just that we underreact to the old and overreact to the new.

Last edited by jorido; 14.04.2020 at 22:44.
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  #7244  
Old 14.04.2020, 22:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Denmark was one of the first countries to impose restrictions. Doesn't that mean that the strategy has worked well if they're doing better than expected?
It shows it's either sufficient or over sufficient not under sufficient. But either way good on them for opening up early. I've no doubt it will be done in a measured sensible way.
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Old 14.04.2020, 23:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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There may be local difficulties, although I can’t find any reports of this. YOU are the one picking an argument and talking about different sets of numbers, I only stated that ICU beds, are under capacity, which is odd given what was expected.
And I've twice explained why the beds are under capacity. There are now more ICU beds than before. You persist in trying to use that as proof Covid 19 is not as bad as expected. No?



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Obesity and smoking related issues. HIV (will still kill more people than covid does, and typically young people at that) , Mental health., alcohol abuse, Vitamin A deficiency (kills more children each year than covid does elderly adults, blinds a similar number). If I'm allowed to cheat a bit and go onto largely preventable acute diseases - malaria. You can save a victim for dying of malaria for £5000 on average. What does a covid victim cost?

I'm not saying it's an either or. That's pointless whataboutery. Just that we underreact to the old and overreact to the new.


Are you suggesting that all those listed above are both simple and easily treatable? Really? We underreacted to this new, particularly in the UK and US.
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Old 14.04.2020, 23:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which simple treatable chronic diseases do you have in mind?
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Obesity and smoking related issues. HIV (will still kill more people than covid does, and typically young people at that) , Mental health., alcohol abuse, Vitamin A deficiency (kills more children each year than covid does elderly adults, blinds a similar number). If I'm allowed to cheat a bit and go onto largely preventable acute diseases - malaria.
Which of those on your list do you regard as "simple"?

Obesity is so not simple that there is a great deal of research done to try to understand and treat it, and whole industry built up around it, and even those who are fortunate enough to find a way of treating or managing it (or even losing weight and keeping it off) would not, nor their doctors, I don't think, class this as simple. And many obese people find that no treatment really works.

Smoking is a serious, bitter and complex addiction. The issues related to high consumption over years are typically not easy to treat, either. Sure, someone can have a very mild habit, and give it up after only a short time of usage, and that, perhaps, by be seen as simple.

HIV and AIDS, as you rightly say, kill many people. Those who are infected and become ill, and those around them watching their decline, would hardly call this simple or treatable.

Mental health issues, alcohol abuse, and malaria, neither.

The only one on your list which is simple, and easily treatable with not too great an expense, is Vitamin A deficiency. That is, if it is detected in time, and the patient given a supplment in a controlled manner and before any serious consequences develop.

I understand you as trying to say that all these diseases are "not so much of a problem", they're just "simple" and "treatable". I disagree. On the other hand, you say that they "kill millions". That part is true. But then... and this is a serious question: why were you listing them, as being the same or as being different from COVID-19? By saying that COVID-19 is mild? I'm trying to understand the point you're making.
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Old 14.04.2020, 23:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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Obesity and smoking related issues. HIV (will still kill more people than covid does, and typically young people at that) , Mental health., alcohol abuse, Vitamin A deficiency (kills more children each year than covid does elderly adults, blinds a similar number). If I'm allowed to cheat a bit and go onto largely preventable acute diseases - malaria. You can save a victim for dying of malaria for £5000 on average. What does a covid victim cost?

I'm not saying it's an either or. That's pointless whataboutery. Just that we underreact to the old and overreact to the new.
Well to quote our esteemed colleague

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Most of whom were at deaths door anyway.
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Old 14.04.2020, 23:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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IMF missive says: "Uncertainty and reduced demand for services could be even worse in a scenario of greater spread without social distancing."

I hope gradual re-opening during the "post-hammer dance" period, eventual developing of the vaccine, etc. will lead to a strong economic rebound quickly enough. Some businesses will fail, some will adjust, kind of survival of the fittest. Employers will hire people back, although not everybody right away. World certainly is not going to be the same, but close.
Economic rebounds are typically consumer-driven but since many consumers have been financially impacted by the crisis such a solution is unlikely.
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Old 14.04.2020, 23:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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Since you folks keep harping about Sweden, this is the number of Covid-19 patients in ICU beds in Sweden. Only Covid-19 cases are shown. To me it doesn't look like they will be comfortable with developments for too long. With about 50% mortality the daily death toll is bound to rise, too:
Yes, like everything about corona in news you really need to scratch under the surface to get the big picture.

For some reason, most of the corona cases in Sweden are migrants from Somalia, Syria, Iraq. They fear this can be due a vitamin D deficiency as migrants make the majority of corona cases in Sweden

So again the virus risk is very concentrated and it doesn't affect most people...just like the flu

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Old 14.04.2020, 23:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Obesity is so not simple that there is a great deal of research done to try to understand and treat it, and whole industry built up around it, and even those who are fortunate enough to find a way of treating or managing it (or even losing weight and keeping it off) would not, nor their doctors, I don't think, class this as simple. And many obese people find that no treatment really works.
I'd say prevention could be attempted though, which would involve government imposed restrictions, like in the US maybe banning sugared drinks and corn syrup in foods in preschools, schools and in general foods for everybody, promoting healthy eating, etc. But I guess that would be OMG too much government
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Old 15.04.2020, 00:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Economic rebounds are typically consumer-driven but since many consumers have been financially impacted by the crisis such a solution is unlikely.
Dunno, like when restaurants re-open they will re-hire staff, so those workers will have money again and will want to make purchases they postponed. Same in other businesses. People can't go on vacation now but they will want to go later (though flying will be less popular for a while I expect). So hopefully activity and demand is merely on hold...

Then again, a little reduction in consuming is probably healthy for the western world (I'm not talking about the poor and unemployed).

Last edited by jimk; 15.04.2020 at 00:24.
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Old 15.04.2020, 00:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, like everything about corona in news you really need to scratch under the surface to get the big picture.

For some reason, most of the corona cases in Sweden are migrants from Somalia, Syria, Iraq. They fear this can be due a vitamin D deficiency as migrants make the majority of corona cases in Sweden

So again the virus risk is very concentrated and it doesn't affect most people...just like the flu

[img]...
As usual you on purpose twist the facts (unless you really are this incredible stupid when it comes to math and ability to understand what you read...), I'm baffled that you have not yet been banned, all that talk that you bring another view is rubbish, you're a troll and EF Staff should be deeply ashamed that you are still allowed to continue your rubbish and trolling.

People from Somalia, Syria and Iraq make up for 5,8% of all cases, which is not "most of all cases", heck it is not even close to that... Large majority of the cases is native Swedes.

Oh and as for vitamin D, about half of the Swedes suffer from lack of Vitamin D at the end of winter which is about now.
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Old 15.04.2020, 00:22
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Re: Coronavirus

Trump's White House speech in full swing now and first highlight of the day is Trump will cease United States funding
to the World Health Organistion almost immediately.
Following which we get a list of all Trumps perceived failings of the WHO's handling of the present crisis.
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Old 15.04.2020, 00:32
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Re: Coronavirus

Challenging the study done by Department of Bioscience and Engineering at ETH Zurich that the virus spread was in decline in Switzerland while people were going on normally with their lifes, children were in school, restaurants were open!

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has just released a study claiming that the number of virus cases in Switzerland is more like 125,000, not 25,000.
Source

It talks back to the fact that the reporting of cases is very poor in all countries and death reporting is better but not 100%.
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Old 15.04.2020, 01:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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Trump's White House speech in full swing now and first highlight of the day is Trump will cease United States funding
to the World Health Organistion almost immediately.
Following which we get a list of all Trumps perceived failings of the WHO's handling of the present crisis.
Just found out that amazingly, the whole budget of WHO is comparable to the budget of one large hospital in the US.
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Old 15.04.2020, 01:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Challenging the study done by Department of Bioscience and Engineering at ETH Zurich that the virus spread was in decline in Switzerland while people were going on normally with their lifes, children were in school, restaurants were open! ...
Also, according to the study (which relies heavily on assumptions as the authors themselves point out) the decline started mere days before the lockdown, but by then the awareness was already there, many companies were already keeping employees working from home, etc. Without lockdown we wouldn't be able to get where we are so fast and hold R around 1, the study mentions that too. And the most affected canton Ticino introduced restrictions earlier, which helped to contain further spreading.

Last edited by jimk; 15.04.2020 at 01:55.
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Old 15.04.2020, 06:31
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Re: Coronavirus

I knew it. Boris would be better in a skirt

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/14/a...ntl/index.html
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Old 15.04.2020, 06:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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The did a lock down the same day as Switzerland. The strategy to reopen, does that mean that the virus magically went back to China or there will be new infections as soon as they reopen but they realize that it is not as bad as everybody feared will be, so they reopen anyway?

While Sweden stayed open all the time...And Denmark strategy is to do...like Sweden?

So, this is a successful strategy to you?

Or simply a shift strategy?
The virus is with us to stay. Live with it.
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Old 15.04.2020, 07:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Trump's White House speech in full swing now and first highlight of the day is Trump will cease United States funding
to the World Health Organistion almost immediately.
Following which we get a list of all Trumps perceived failings of the WHO's handling of the present crisis.
Link to news https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...h-organization

Hilkarious how he has:

-Criticized the WHO for not taking the threat seriously when he basically ignored it until March
-Criticized the WHO for being too nice to Xi, when he publicly praised him on Twitter for his transparency.

I hope every day that Trump will catch COV and die. If that sounds harsh, that's because it is harsh and I mean it. I utterly despise him and think the world is a darker place with him in it. I have never seen a man as dangerous through his incapable and blind ignorance. He needs to go and I am increasingly wanting to see a woman become president of the most powerful countries in the world just to see what it's like to have a tough world leaders with a developed sense of compassion and empathy.

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Deadcatting detected
New word detected, I like it.

Last edited by Chuff; 15.04.2020 at 07:25.
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Old 15.04.2020, 07:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Challenging the study done by Department of Bioscience and Engineering at ETH Zurich that the virus spread was in decline in Switzerland while people were going on normally with their lifes, children were in school, restaurants were open!

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has just released a study claiming that the number of virus cases in Switzerland is more like 125,000, not 25,000.
Source

It talks back to the fact that the reporting of cases is very poor in all countries and death reporting is better but not 100%.
At this point in time all such reports should just be considered option. For me three things suggest we know an awful lot less about this virus than we are led to believe:
- People testing positive for the virus without symptoms
- People testing negative but dying of the virus, I even read yesterday of someone testing negative twice before dying of the virus
- The struggle to develop antibody tests because we’re having difficulty in detecting antibodies in people who have had the virus
In any other situation we’d conclude the testing was not up to much.

I have some doubts about our ability to accurately detect the virus at this stage. And if we can’t correctly detect it, we’re along way from a reliable vaccine.
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