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  #7261  
Old 15.04.2020, 07:33
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Re: Coronavirus

I predict big second and third waves of infections when transport and recreational facilities are back up and running and people rush out like lemmings to make full use of them to alleviate the confinement. When combined with lack of vaccine and that people are now confirmed as being potentially infected for a second time within a relatively short time frame after recovery, it's clear to me that COVID will be a fact of life in our society for many months yet.

EDIT - To clarify, the re-infections could also be relapses and immunity is not yet fully proven either way https://www.iflscience.com/health-an...n-south-korea/

Last edited by Chuff; 15.04.2020 at 10:16. Reason: Clarification
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  #7262  
Old 15.04.2020, 08:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just found out that amazingly, the whole budget of WHO is comparable to the budget of one large hospital in the US.
A further illustration: the budget for the entire (!) UN core ops is about 4-5% of New York City's budget...
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  #7263  
Old 15.04.2020, 08:10
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Re: Coronavirus

Even better yesterday
coronavirus-unbenannt.png
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  #7264  
Old 15.04.2020, 08:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which simple treatable chronic diseases do you have in mind?
Oh, lots. I may ask my s-i-l who is a doctor but she made the same point.

That is not to say that this thing is not dangerous, only that she personally would like to see the same type of alert during normal times for other diseases too.
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  #7265  
Old 15.04.2020, 08:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Trump's White House speech in full swing now and first highlight of the day is Trump will cease United States funding
to the World Health Organistion almost immediately.
Following which we get a list of all Trumps perceived failings of the WHO's handling of the present crisis.
Surely he needs congressional approval to change the budget?
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  #7266  
Old 15.04.2020, 08:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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I predict big second and third waves of infections when transport and recreational facilities are back up and running and people rush out like lemmings to make full use of them to alleviate the confinement. When combined with lack of vaccine and that people are now confirmed as being infected for a second time within a relatively short time frame after recovery, it's clear to me that COVID will be a fact of life in our society for many months yet.
If we resume activities exactly as before it will be even worse and the lockdown will prove to be semi-futile. Some restrictions such as no more big gatherings, the rule of 5 persons etc must be maintained for much longer. And some others I can't think of right now - oh, of course they way we roam in supermarkets, streets etc We'd still have to respect that social distancing thing, as much as we can.

It would be nice to be able to buy masks too.
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  #7267  
Old 15.04.2020, 08:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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As usual you on purpose twist the facts (unless you really are this incredible stupid when it comes to math and ability to understand what you read...), I'm baffled that you have not yet been banned, all that talk that you bring another view is rubbish, you're a troll and EF Staff should be deeply ashamed that you are still allowed to continue your rubbish and trolling.
Be a pretty boring forum if the fringe views were not allowed.

Don't forget the vocal minority on EF are generally wrong on the big topics, despite the noise and shouting down that takes place.
Trump election: wrong.
Brexit referendum: wrong.
Corbyn for PM: wrong.
Boris for PM: wrong.
Next Trump election: I'd chance my arm and say wrong.

Looks to me like everyone who posts carries the same weight, forum legend or not.
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  #7268  
Old 15.04.2020, 08:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Be a pretty boring forum if the fringe views were not allowed.

Don't forget the vocal minority on EF are generally wrong on the big topics, despite the noise and shouting down that takes place.
Trump election: wrong.
Brexit referendum: wrong.
Corbyn for PM: wrong.
Boris for PM: wrong.
Next Trump election: I'd chance my arm and say wrong.

Looks to me like everyone who posts carries the same weight, forum legend or not.
Make up your mind, who is in minority and what "fringe views" mean then? It looks like the fringe views are the vocal minority to me. Supported and encouraged by lots of people here.

It's funny how you and some others continuously try to shut down the said "vocal minority" who is always wrong.

If they're always wrong and in minority, why on earth do you put so much effort into shutting them down?
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Old 15.04.2020, 08:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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At this point in time all such reports should just be considered option. For me three things suggest we know an awful lot less about this virus than we are led to believe:
- People testing positive for the virus without symptoms
- People testing negative but dying of the virus, I even read yesterday of someone testing negative twice before dying of the virus
- The struggle to develop antibody tests because we’re having difficulty in detecting antibodies in people who have had the virus
In any other situation we’d conclude the testing was not up to much.

I have some doubts about our ability to accurately detect the virus at this stage. And if we can’t correctly detect it, we’re along way from a reliable vaccine.
Worth remembering that any Covid-19 test has a relatively high chance of a false negative - the issue is almost always the sampling process, it is relatively easy to simply miss the virus when sampling. False positives are very unlikely.

Quick googling that even experienced testers will experience a 3% - 5% false negative rate. Which means about 2 people per 1,000 could expect a double false negative covering your second point.

Asymptomatic cases are a well known issue and the problem with antibody tests is not detecting antibodies per se - this is already being done. It is rather packaging a cheap, reliable, possibly DIY test for the masses.
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Old 15.04.2020, 09:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corbyn for PM: wrong.
Who was wrong on that? I really cannot recall anyone suggesting it was likely.
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  #7271  
Old 15.04.2020, 09:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Make up your mind, who is in minority and what "fringe views" mean then? It looks like the fringe views are the vocal minority to me. Supported and encouraged by lots of people here.

It's funny how you and some others continuously try to shut down the said "vocal minority" who is always wrong.

If they're always wrong and in minority, why on earth do you put so much effort into shutting them down?
Ah yes, I suppose it's the vocal, woke majority who are wrong most of the time.
I don't think you've ever seen me trying to close anyone down because I don't agree with them.
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  #7272  
Old 15.04.2020, 09:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't think you've ever seen me trying to close anyone down because I don't agree with them.
True, you're not that bad.

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Ah yes, I suppose it's the vocal, woke majority who are wrong most of the time.
.
There aren't that many regular contributors to even think of how the majority looks like. The forum has many members but the majority is just lurking, with a few waking up to make some rude comments or groan from time to time. The rest can't be bothered, probably.

As far as I noticed there are a few "cliques", the alt-righters being a bit more vocal than what you call "woke" ones.
And the ones in between, who can only be accused of having opinions and expressing them here.

Btw, since it came up: I remembered that those you call "woke" are no longer members of EF. They were bullied till they left. So......you the fringe ones are running the show now.
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  #7273  
Old 15.04.2020, 09:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Be a pretty boring forum if the fringe views were not allowed.

Don't forget the vocal minority on EF are generally wrong on the big topics, despite the noise and shouting down that takes place.
Trump election: wrong.
Brexit referendum: wrong.
Corbyn for PM: wrong.
Boris for PM: wrong.
Next Trump election: I'd chance my arm and say wrong.

Looks to me like everyone who posts carries the same weight, forum legend or not.
You are not in the vocal minority
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  #7274  
Old 15.04.2020, 09:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Worth remembering that any Covid-19 test has a relatively high chance of a false negative - the issue is almost always the sampling process, it is relatively easy to simply miss the virus when sampling. False positives are very unlikely.

Quick googling that even experienced testers will experience a 3% - 5% false negative rate. Which means about 2 people per 1,000 could expect a double false negative covering your second point.

Asymptomatic cases are a well known issue and the problem with antibody tests is not detecting antibodies per se - this is already being done. It is rather packaging a cheap, reliable, possibly DIY test for the masses.
nucleic acid test -false negative problem due to sampling issues
antibody test - false positives due to specificity problems (corona viruses are so widespread we will all have antibodies to many of them) I can't see a reason for not getting a quick reliable test for the masses out unless the specificity problems have not been solved
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  #7275  
Old 15.04.2020, 10:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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... people are now confirmed as being infected for a second time within a relatively short time frame after recovery,
Do you have a source for this? There were some such reports from China back in February, with one Japanese woman testing positive, then negative, then positive again a few days later, but on its own that would be most likely put down to a false negative on the middle test, with the virus having not been completely eradicated.

More recently I can't find anything to support the idea that reinfection has been confirmed.
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  #7276  
Old 15.04.2020, 10:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Looks to me like everyone who posts carries the same weight, forum legend or not.
Funny. The only people who ever mention the "forum legend" posting level are those who've not got there yet.
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  #7277  
Old 15.04.2020, 10:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Funny. The only people who ever mention the "forum legend" posting level are those who've not got there yet.
I think you've just become the exception that proves the rule!
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  #7278  
Old 15.04.2020, 10:07
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Re: Coronavirus

Some days ago I was about to leave a comment on the twitter of Daniel Probst, the guy behing corona-data.ch I saw other people already have done the same remark about how data from the last 2 days was still subject to change (insert fax machine joke here).

Now the plots at corona-data.ch take into account this delay caused by all the checks and balances (quality control) in the data processing, hats off to Mr. Probst.

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  #7279  
Old 15.04.2020, 10:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you have a source for this? There were some such reports from China back in February, with one Japanese woman testing positive, then negative, then positive again a few days later, but on its own that would be most likely put down to a false negative on the middle test, with the virus having not been completely eradicated.

More recently I can't find anything to support the idea that reinfection has been confirmed.
for example in Korea: https://www.usnews.com/news/world-re...positive-again
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  #7280  
Old 15.04.2020, 10:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you have a source for this? There were some such reports from China back in February, with one Japanese woman testing positive, then negative, then positive again a few days later, but on its own that would be most likely put down to a false negative on the middle test, with the virus having not been completely eradicated.

More recently I can't find anything to support the idea that reinfection has been confirmed.
Here is one article I read https://www.iflscience.com/health-an...n-south-korea/

Although to be fair it points also towards people also having a "relapse" and it is not yet certain if they were reinfected. However, no immunity has yet been proven.

Still, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
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