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  #7401  
Old 15.04.2020, 17:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Given the following screenshot just taken from worldometer, Sweden doesn't seem to be doing so well atm:


For those people who like to compare Sweden and Switzerland; which I do not believe is useful.

170 new deaths reported in Sweden and we are only two-thirds of the way through today, BTW the highest Swiss death toll ever in one day was 74.
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  #7402  
Old 15.04.2020, 17:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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People die. That is indeed a certainty. The issue here is whether or not deaths from Covid-19 are preventable. Now. Not in 5 years. The 5-years-in-the-future stats will be applicable then. You may as well say "I'm going to die at some point so I may as well stop eating now."



They may. However it is not certain that lifting the lockdown now is any good. We could just see a resurgence and have to start all over again. Better to see this thing out. And believe me I do not say this lightly. A significant chunk of my annual income has been completely eradicated this year.
Unless lockdown remains for many years we will see a resurgence & rising deaths when it's lifted, it's something we will have to get used to.

Old people will have a choice to self isolate for the rest of their lives if they wish, no need for a law to make them stay at home, they can choose how to spend their retirement.
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  #7403  
Old 15.04.2020, 17:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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They may. However it is not certain that lifting the lockdown now is any good. We could just see a resurgence and have to start all over again. Better to see this thing out. And believe me I do not say this lightly. A significant chunk of my annual income has been completely eradicated this year.
It's also not certain that by keeping the lockdown for another x months there will not be a resurgence. Or do you mean to see this thing out until a vaccine/cure is found?
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  #7404  
Old 15.04.2020, 17:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Economic depressions cause lost lives.

Any link to share with us?


(While googling you will find a lot of interesting studies on this topic...)
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  #7405  
Old 15.04.2020, 17:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Any link to share with us?


(While googling you will find a lot of interesting studies on this topic...)
9,100,000 people starve to death a year, I suspect the no's will rise sharply if lockdown lasts more than 3 months
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Old 15.04.2020, 17:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's also not certain that by keeping the lockdown for another x months there will not be a resurgence. Or do you mean to see this thing out until a vaccine/cure is found?
That's the best. After all, the Aids vaccine was developed in no time.
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Old 15.04.2020, 17:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's also not certain that by keeping the lockdown for another x months there will not be a resurgence. Or do you mean to see this thing out until a vaccine/cure is found?
Let's just try the 12 weeks, eh?

There's still a worrying insistence on here that this is a virus that only kills older people.
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  #7408  
Old 15.04.2020, 18:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Let's just try the 12 weeks, eh?
Will you accept deaths after 12 weeks?
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  #7409  
Old 15.04.2020, 18:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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9,100,000 people starve to death a year, I suspect the no's will rise sharply if lockdown lasts more than 3 months
So there is a poverty line now? Not just lazy unmotivated folk?
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  #7410  
Old 15.04.2020, 18:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Let's just try the 12 weeks, eh?

There's still a worrying insistence on here that this is a virus that only kills older people.

Only 95% of them are old, 4.9% are not old but very unhealthy, and 0.1% are unexpected.
I've made the % up for illustrative purposes, but it's not far off the mark.


By this reckoning, 95% of Covid deaths can be avoided just by isolating the old and running the care homes correctly.
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  #7411  
Old 15.04.2020, 18:38
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Re: Coronavirus

Really good article. Hope it is not behind a paywall.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-f...t-coronavirus/
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  #7412  
Old 15.04.2020, 18:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Only 95% of them are old, 4.9% are not old but very unhealthy, and 0.1% are unexpected.
I've made the % up for illustrative purposes, but it's not far off the mark.


By this reckoning, 95% of Covid deaths can be avoided just by isolating the old and running the care homes correctly.
"I've made the % up" say no more
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  #7413  
Old 15.04.2020, 18:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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"I've made the % up" say no more
Close enough for illustrative purposes.
We can easily prevent 95% (that's a bang on the nail % there) just by taking the old and sick/high risk out of the equation.

But this argument was done to (a premature and preventable) death much earlier in the thread.
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  #7414  
Old 15.04.2020, 19:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Only 95% of them are old, 4.9% are not old but very unhealthy, and 0.1% are unexpected.
I've made the % up for illustrative purposes, but it's not far off the mark.


By this reckoning, 95% of Covid deaths can be avoided just by isolating the old and running the care homes correctly.
Define old please.
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  #7415  
Old 15.04.2020, 19:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Let's just try the 12 weeks, eh?

There's still a worrying insistence on here that this is a virus that only kills older people.
Exactly. Of the 14 families I know who have the 12 week government guidance letter, only 2 of them are over 60 (both are 62) and 9 are families shielding children aged between 2 and 12yrs old.
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Old 15.04.2020, 19:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have tried "cheap good" and champagne and "expensive good" champagne and it is my genuine belief that it is also a load of absolute pretentious BS, same as with many delicacies such as caviar. Caviar used to be an appetizer on the level of peanuts, free in ye olden bars and often fed to dogs, and then one day someone, probably from Russia, decided it would be a delicacy fit for a king.

Many such luxuries are man-made cultural nonsense designed to make people feel better about themselves and gauge their worth, and very often no reflection of actual taste and/or refinement.
I agree. Don't know about each one's motivations, but I think in many, many cases is just snobbery.

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I was not talking about FMF, I was just musing in general in response to Greenmounts post as it made me think about the topic.
Haha, you should know by now that "musing" and discussing the idea a bit further is not allowed/recognised here, folks will tell you immediately that the previous poster didn't say that, you're misjudging etc.

Anyways, it's off topic so let's leave it at that.
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  #7417  
Old 15.04.2020, 19:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Define old please.
According to corona-data.ch, showing fatalities scaled by age distribution is practically invisible for <60 yo, tiny for males <70 yo and only reaches 0.1% of the population for males >80 and females >85 yo
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  #7418  
Old 15.04.2020, 19:14
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Re: Coronavirus

Chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development says models show COVID-19 declines after 6 weeks.

No matter the measures, the virus declines in 6-8 weeks.

However, Prof. Ben-Israel added that he "recommends that we take all the hygienic steps like wearing masks and keeping our distance from person to person and banning crowds because it does not cost the economy. What bothers me is the damage to the economy. We are paying NIS 100 billion a month because of this closure. This also has implications for health. We will pay with more human lives with our health system in the current state."
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Old 15.04.2020, 19:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development says models show COVID-19 declines after 6 weeks.

No matter the measures, the virus declines in 6-8 weeks.

However, Prof. Ben-Israel added that he "recommends that we take all the hygienic steps like wearing masks and keeping our distance from person to person and banning crowds because it does not cost the economy. What bothers me is the damage to the economy. We are paying NIS 100 billion a month because of this closure. This also has implications for health. We will pay with more human lives with our health system in the current state."
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When Barbash cited New York as ostensible proof that Ben-Israel was mistaken, Ben-Israel noted the latest indications from New York were precisely in line with his statistics that indicate daily new cases figures peaking and starting to fall after about 40 days.

Asked to explain the phenomenon, Ben-Israel, who also heads Israel’s Space Agency, later said: “I have no explanation. There are all kinds of speculations. Maybe it’s related to climate, or the virus has a life-span of its own.
What an idiot.
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Old 15.04.2020, 19:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Given the following screenshot just taken from worldometer, Sweden doesn't seem to be doing so well atm:


Its obviously getting more new deaths than places with a stricter shutdown (like Switzerland) as these places will have flattened the curve quicker (but these extra deaths, are without wanting to be vulgar, de minimis compared to the positive affect on the economy, which will have saved more lives than lives lost to the virus).

Also obvious is the fact that without social distancing, things would be very bad and hospitals would be overwhelmed.

The question is whether mostly non-government induced social distancing is enough to flatten the curve and keep that infection ratio below 1. I hope so, because Sweden's short term game is more or less our long term game.... That's roughly what we want to be doing in a month or so.

Ultimately, the only reason to lockdown is to avoid overloading the health services. Once you are out of the woods in that respect, you need to move towards maintaining a infection ratio close to 1 rather than as low as possible to save the economy.
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