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  #7461  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just had my morning coffee. Where's my first daily update on how things are going fine on Sweden?
While Swedish health authorities feel 'cautiously optimistic' everybody else just can't explain how all the doom and gloom predictions for Sweden even after 5 weeks haven't materialized

The current death numbers in Sweden (which starts to decline) is still not out of line of that one of a bad flu year
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  #7462  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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The current death numbers in Sweden (which starts to decline) is still not out of line of that one of a bad flu year
Starts to decline? Yesterday they recorded their by far highest number of deaths so far. Possibly partially due to under-reporting over easter but if you bother to actually look at the graphs the trend is still moving rapidly upwards.
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  #7463  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:30
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I hope they'll be prudent from now on too and open everything gradually and won't let themselves blackmailed by various groups.
Which is what some have been advocating on this thread for some time.
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  #7464  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Let's talk about Switzerland as most of us live here. From the NZZ
According to BFS in 2015 alone there were 2500 deaths from flu in Switzerland

In 2015, 67606 people died in Switzerland, 6% more than in the previous year. The increase is due to the ageing of the population (an additional 500 deaths), the flu epidemic in spring (roughly 2500 deaths) and the heatwave in July (approximately 500 deaths).

https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfsstatic/d...3742832/master

From Swiss Medical Weekly, each year around 1500 deaths from flu alone in Switzerland

In Switzerland, influenza is estimated to cause 1000 to 5000 hospitalisations and up to 1500 deaths each year

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2019.20161

So actual Swiss numbers of 973 corona deaths are 60% less than the particularly bad 2015 year when there were 2500 dead from flu
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hahahaha. You want Czech ones instead?

CH is doing well. My balcony good mood barometer hit its top of the curve yesterday.
I went to the chocolatier in Aarau yesterday and was pleasantly surprised at the good mood. The owner said sales are down by half as in summer when everyone leaves for vacation. His mood was "it could be worse than this, but chocolate is food then we're open".
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  #7466  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:38
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Oh, so late? You obviously don't have children, oder?

Oh, those days when I could sleep uninterruptedly from 10 p.m. to 10 a.m. ........
nope, no children yet, there's a time for everything
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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According to BFS in 2015 alone there were 2500 deaths from flu in Switzerland

In 2015, 67606 people died in Switzerland, 6% more than in the previous year. The increase is due to the ageing of the population (an additional 500 deaths), the flu epidemic in spring (roughly 2500 deaths) and the heatwave in July (approximately 500 deaths).

https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfsstatic/d...3742832/master

From Swiss Medical Weekly, each year around 1500 deaths from flu alone in Switzerland

In Switzerland, influenza is estimated to cause 1000 to 5000 hospitalisations and up to 1500 deaths each year

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2019.20161

So actual Swiss numbers of 973 corona deaths are 60% less than the particularly bad 2015 year when there were 2500 dead from flu
The current count is close to 1,300 (worldometer, we all know BAG undercounts). For sure there are more cases not officially recorded, we'll find out much later when the numbers have been properly analysed. That number is in only 40 days, the last 1,000 have come in just 17 days. Which you seem to think is a reasonable comparision to a full year of flu deaths.

Oh and 1,000 - 5,000 hospitalisations for flu? Today there are about 3,000 people in hospital with Coronavirus. Not over a full year, today.

Last edited by baboon; 16.04.2020 at 09:48. Reason: Added death count source
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  #7468  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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According to OFPS the current number of covid deaths is 973, 500 less than a bad flu year

Given how the disease is slowing down chances are even with all the fanfare around covid still won't be as deadly as seasonal flu

Even in Italy current covid death numbers are in line with the numbers of a bad flu year

Only difference is bad flu year doesn't get breaking news coverage
Another phony comparison.

The first COV-19 death in Italy was reported on March 1st.
So you are comparing COV-19 deaths in 7 weeks with seasonal flu deaths over one year.

You are ignoring the fact that COV-19 deaths are massively reduced by the lockdown.

Why don't you stop spreading this fake news now and instead come back in a year with a proper full-year comparison of COV-19 deaths versus flu?
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  #7469  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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According to BFS in 2015 alone there were 2500 deaths from flu in Switzerland

In 2015, 67606 people died in Switzerland, 6% more than in the previous year. The increase is due to the ageing of the population (an additional 500 deaths), the flu epidemic in spring (roughly 2500 deaths) and the heatwave in July (approximately 500 deaths).

https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfsstatic/d...3742832/master

From Swiss Medical Weekly, each year around 1500 deaths from flu alone in Switzerland

In Switzerland, influenza is estimated to cause 1000 to 5000 hospitalisations and up to 1500 deaths each year

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2019.20161

So actual Swiss numbers of 973 corona deaths are 60% less than the particularly bad 2015 year when there were 2500 dead from flu
I don't understand why you keep presenting this information as if its proof that COVID-19 has saved thousands of lives. COVID-19 is not seasonal flu. You should be adding COVID-19 deaths to the "usual" flu deaths.

Yes, some older people who may have died of flu will have died of COVID-19 this year, and some flu deaths may have been spared thanks to the lockdown, but in the main, deaths from these two diseases are additive. So you should be talking about how 973 COVID-19 deaths are 65% more than a standard year when there are 1,500 dead from flu -- or 39% more than the particularly bad 2015 flu year.

Or if you want to compare apples with apples, how there are infinitely more COVID-19 deaths in 2020 than in any preceding year.
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  #7470  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:48
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Re: Coronavirus

As light-spirited side note on the virus: the WHO has a death wish They say access to alcohol should be restricted during lockdown http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-to...uring-lockdown
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  #7471  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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The current count is close to 1,300. That's the official count, for sure there are more cases not officially recorded, we'll find out much later when the numbers have been properly analysed. That number is in only 40 days, the last 1,000 have come in just 17 days. Which you seem to think is a reasonable comparision to a full year of flu deaths.

Oh and 1,000 - 5,000 hospitalisations for flu? Today there are about 3,000 people in hospital with Coronavirus. Not over a full year, today.
From OFPS the current number is 973



No, today there are no 3000 people from corona in the hospitals. There have been 3000 hospitalizations SO FAR, half of those of a bad flu year

The numbers aren't scary if you read them correctly
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, today there are no 3000 people from corona in the hospitals. There have been 3000 hospitalizations SO FAR, half of those of a bad flu year
Agreed, I misread that number.

However still only since the reporting obligation so you're still comparing about one month with a full year. So (and allowing for the initial build-up) pretty easy to extrapolate to perhaps 40,000 in a full year with perhaps the initial, pre-lockdown measures and really scary numbers with no measures.
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  #7473  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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According to BFS in 2015 alone there were 2500 deaths from flu in Switzerland

In 2015, 67606 people died in Switzerland, 6% more than in the previous year. The increase is due to the ageing of the population (an additional 500 deaths), the flu epidemic in spring (roughly 2500 deaths) and the heatwave in July (approximately 500 deaths).

https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfsstatic/d...3742832/master

From Swiss Medical Weekly, each year around 1500 deaths from flu alone in Switzerland

In Switzerland, influenza is estimated to cause 1000 to 5000 hospitalisations and up to 1500 deaths each year

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2019.20161

So actual Swiss numbers of 973 corona deaths are 60% less than the particularly bad 2015 year when there were 2500 dead from flu
First COV-19 death reported in Switzerland was on March 4th, so you are comparing COV-19 deaths over six weeks with a full year of seasonal flu deaths

973 deaths over six weeks is an annual rate of 8,500 deaths which is many more than annual flu deaths.
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  #7474  
Old 16.04.2020, 10:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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So actual Swiss numbers of 973 corona deaths are 60% less than the particularly bad 2015 year when there were 2500 dead from flu
You should find a new source for your numbers, you keep using numbers from before eastern.
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  #7475  
Old 16.04.2020, 10:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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The number of new cases now directly will obviously influence ICU capacity in c. 1-2 weeks time as there is a significant lag from diagnosis to icu. Given this, we can can be confident total/icu cases will for sure decline pretty dramatically over the next fortnight simply following the trend we have already observed for new cases. Obviously I understand a degree of conservatism but I think we are passed the point where there's a significant risk of imminent overflow. As I said above, I'm pretty happy with the 26th all in all. Seems to keep everyone happy, and that's important.
So you knew in advance how people were going to act over Easter?

Wow! Where did you get your crystal ball from?
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't understand why you keep presenting this information as if its proof that COVID-19 has saved thousands of lives. COVID-19 is not seasonal flu. You should be adding COVID-19 deaths to the "usual" flu deaths.

Yes, some older people who may have died of flu will have died of COVID-19 this year, and some flu deaths may have been spared thanks to the lockdown, but in the main, deaths from these two diseases are additive. So you should be talking about how 973 COVID-19 deaths are 65% more than a standard year when there are 1,500 dead from flu -- or 39% more than the particularly bad 2015 flu year.

Or if you want to compare apples with apples, how there are infinitely more COVID-19 deaths in 2020 than in any preceding year.
No facts follow, only speculation.
I don't think these are mostly additive, as the most at risk population is identical for both. Surely the overlap will mean that there are less flu deaths this year as Covid got there first for a lot of cases.
The UK has also mentioned that they're only stating that the deceased had Covid at time of death, not that it was the main cause. During an autopsy do they count a person as a Covid victim or a flu victim if the deceased had both? I don't know about other countries.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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One can only wish for starting where we left off.

5 weeks in and Spanish economy is already in a worse position than the 2008 crisis

In its half-yearly forecast published on Tuesday, the IMF said that what it dubbed the “Great Lockdown” would cause a slump that hadn’t be seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s and would even surpass the pain felt during the fallout from the global financial crisis of 2008.

And Italy is worse than Spain!

2008 and the 1930s will look like a child's play when the dust settles
Stupid Italians and Spaniards, they should have let the virus do its thing unhindered. Is that what you're trying to say? If not, what would have been the alternative?
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:18
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No facts follow, only speculation.
I don't think these are mostly additive, as the most at risk population is identical for both. Surely the overlap will mean that there are less flu deaths this year as Covid got there first for a lot of cases.
I think there has to be some additive effect. Covid19 started in Switzerland towards the end of the traditional flu season when flu cases are already beginning to tail off significantly.
I think it’s live having two waves of flu in the same year, many who escaped the first wave of flu ( due to luck, vaccination or whatever) may have been caught by the second wave which is Covid19.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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First COV-19 death reported in Switzerland was on March 4th, so you are comparing COV-19 deaths over six weeks with a full year of seasonal flu deaths

973 deaths over six weeks is an annual rate of 8,500 deaths which is many more than annual flu deaths.
Is this full year of ahem seasonal flu spread out evenly over the whole year, or clustered in winter?
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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First COV-19 death reported in Switzerland was on March 4th, so you are comparing COV-19 deaths over six weeks with a full year of seasonal flu deaths

973 deaths over six weeks is an annual rate of 8,500 deaths which is many more than annual flu deaths.
He's also again comparing confirmed numbers with estimated numbers, we don't know yet the estimates for Corona but as always they'll be higher than the confirmed amount.

(And current death count for Corona in CH is over 1200)
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