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  #7861  
Old 20.04.2020, 16:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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In my opinion it's disingenious to add further points to a post or a thinly veiled jab at a person in an edit.
Of course there is the reason for edit box which can add clarity.
.
You call it a jab at you, ironically after you did exactly the same with some posters, but it was for making myself clear.

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Your opinion may differ and I accept that.
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You don't. You wouldn't have been riled up like this and groaned and made accusations.

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I, by all means you've won the internet for today .
No mate, I'll let you win it and put you on my ignore list.
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  #7862  
Old 20.04.2020, 16:09
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Re: Coronavirus

Returning to the title of this thread:
This article from a communist, hysteric, fake news source:
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...9-deaths-study
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  #7863  
Old 20.04.2020, 16:13
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Re: Coronavirus

Contributing to the stream of positive news: McDonalds reopens the drive-thrus next Monday 27th April https://www.mcdonalds.ch
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  #7864  
Old 20.04.2020, 16:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Returning to the title of this thread:
This article from a communist, hysteric, fake news source:
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...9-deaths-study
Is a good thing then, that urban China doesn't have polluted air.
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  #7865  
Old 20.04.2020, 17:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Contributing to the stream of positive news: McDonalds reopens the drive-thrus next Monday 27th April https://www.mcdonalds.ch
Can anyone DHL me a strawberry milkshake with fries please
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  #7866  
Old 20.04.2020, 17:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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It depends what you call a large gathering.

I think some social distance can be created at schools and I think children aren't prone to the same symptoms of the virus as those at risk are. I'm basing my theory on statistics I've seen, which all point to a low virus infection in children.

However, this is just my opinion and it doesn't really matter.
Give me a number. Large is defined differently in different countries.

Social distancing would be a nightmare in schools for all the reasons stated before. And yes, children may, on the whole seem not to be affected badly themselves but, again, they are carriers for the virus and may infect the adults they are around in schools and /or take it home with them. It's not as cut and dried as "schools are easy to sort and kids are unaffected. "


As for the "we're even-handed moderators, all is kept light anf fluffy" schtick.... no. And Edwin is entirely correct. Wholesale trolling has been enabled here. False information - as in false when compared to sources cited - have been posted.

And I'm still unsure what Sweden has to do with all of this. Isn't it a ginormous land mass so social distancing is essentially a way of life anyway unless you're in a city? Cheerful disclaimer: my geographical knowledge is truly shite.

Last edited by RufusB; 20.04.2020 at 17:49.
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  #7867  
Old 20.04.2020, 19:51
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Re: Coronavirus

For those into stats and modeling, I just received this newsletter from Dr Peter Attia who has a BS in mechanical engineering and applied mathematics from Queen's University, Canada and then went onto Stanford for his medical degree before leaving John Hopkins and The National Cancer Institute to work as a consultant for McKinsey & Co.

Here are his latest thoughts on the Corona model issues and how to move forward:

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-wh...th-the-models/

He writes well and as a former "modeler" for McKinsey presents the "modeling" assumptions and issues in a coherent way.
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  #7868  
Old 20.04.2020, 20:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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For those into stats and modeling, I just received this newsletter from Dr Peter Attia who has a BS in mechanical engineering and applied mathematics from Queen's University, Canada and then went onto Stanford for his medical degree before leaving John Hopkins and The National Cancer Institute to work as a consultant for McKinsey & Co.

Here are his latest thoughts on the Corona model issues and how to move forward:

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-wh...th-the-models/

He writes well and as a former "modeler" for McKinsey presents the "modeling" assumptions and issues in a coherent way.
And here is the same model as calculated using the intricate Chinese accounting :



As you can clearly see, the virus started to dissipate right after it was discovered at the wet market.
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  #7869  
Old 20.04.2020, 20:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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I see. You don't bring any arguments against what I've written or how I explained why their numbers seem accurate to me, just "stop your arguments , they're all wrong, China is pure evil, I've never been there but I watched Fox News and they told me"...
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...
And please, let's not get into a "but China is evil, bad Communists!!!1111" discussion here...
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...You seem to be on a "China-is-so-evil-Fox-told-me" trip, I'll have you enjoy it and not interrupt you with facts and reality anymore.
I am not seeing the kind of posts you claim. People are pointing out skepticism about the numbers that have been reported, and the Chinese government isn't exactly known for being forthcoming. That doesn't mean China or the Chinese are evil, or that anyone is glued to Fox news. If anything, I'd bet our readers watch Fox for entertainment, not news.

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ETH Zurich did similar estimate and conclusion was the same. The spread of the virus was in a decline before we closed everything. I guess the most effective way to stop the spread is hygiene and distance...

...The real problem that we will get to know in the future is how many more died directly or indirectly of the lock down in comparison to victims from the virus...

...Spain revising their corona numbers...

Can we finally open our eyes and see that the real killer is panic and not the corona virus?
1. At the time the decisions were made, the situation looked like it would get very, very bad. That's what modeling is all about - where are we now and where will we wind up if we don't do something? The Swiss took their first actions on 28 Feb, a full 10 days before the R0 peaked in Germany. Yes, further actions came after the peak but that doesn't mean they were not effective at all.

2. Even those numbers will be estimates. At least we can test for Covid-19. It's harder to quantify deaths that may or may not be related to lockdown. There will be some.

3. Plenty of countries have revised numbers and will continue to do so. Thus why I said many, many posts ago that we'll never have exact numbers.

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... I know of no Swede who does support their government in this, and more and more restrictions do get in place.
Did I read that right, that Swedes do not support their government's decisions? Or did they support initially because it seemed so great and now they think wait, maybe we celebrated too soon?

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I'd go further....[mods] making it nigh on impossible for useful information to get through and proper conversations to be had...
I don't know all the facts, and I'm very active in this thread. Thus in my view, it's not appropriate for me start deleting posts just because I disagree or think they're not accurate. I'm going to try and refute what I disagree with as best I can. If you want nothing but facts, I recommend sticking to sites that specialize in figures. We here at EF specialize in lively discussions that often wander.

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While the syndicates in Romandie are against reopening of schools (some EFers say it's impossible) scheduled in 3 weeks, Sweden's infectious diseases chief has said ...
An even better comparison is between the German-speaking parts of CH and the French- and Italian-speaking regions. The former favor opening up sooner, the latter not. Perhaps because the one side of the Röstigraben was hit harder and don't want a repeat, whereas the other thinks it was much ado about nothing?
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  #7870  
Old 20.04.2020, 21:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did I read that right, that Swedes do not support their government's decisions? Or did they support initially because it seemed so great and now they think wait, maybe we celebrated too soon?
What I wrote:

"I know of no Swede who does support their government in this"

What I ment:

The Swedes I know (family and friends we have in Sweden) do not support their government in how they handle this and they would prefer stricter rulings.

What you want to read in that is completely up to you.
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  #7871  
Old 20.04.2020, 21:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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For those into stats and modeling, I just received this newsletter from Dr Peter Attia who has a BS in mechanical engineering and applied mathematics from Queen's University, Canada and then went onto Stanford for his medical degree before leaving John Hopkins and The National Cancer Institute to work as a consultant for McKinsey & Co.

Here are his latest thoughts on the Corona model issues and how to move forward:

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-wh...th-the-models/

He writes well and as a former "modeler" for McKinsey presents the "modeling" assumptions and issues in a coherent way.
Great article, my only criticism is that he puts faith in antibody tests delivering answers. The immune response is so complex (preliminary reports suggest that infected people with no or very mild symptoms are not producing antibodies; but then maybe the viral load was too low, so should they be counted as corona positive?) and the antibody tests likely not to be specific enough for cov 19 that the results will unfortunately not give the desired certainty in the results - I hope I am wrong.
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Old 20.04.2020, 21:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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What I wrote:

"I know of no Swede who does support their government in this"

What I ment:

The Swedes I know (family and friends we have in Sweden) do not support their government in how they handle this and they would prefer stricter rulings.

What you want to read in that is completely up to you.
I'm not reading anything in. Your phrasing threw me for a loop and so I asked what you were trying to say. Had you written "I don't know any Swedes that support their government in this" then it would have been clearer (to me, anyway). Thanks for clarifying.
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Old 20.04.2020, 22:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Great article, my only criticism is that he puts faith in antibody tests delivering answers. The immune response is so complex (preliminary reports suggest that infected people with no or very mild symptoms are not producing antibodies; but then maybe the viral load was too low, so should they be counted as corona positive?) and the antibody tests likely not to be specific enough for cov 19 that the results will unfortunately not give the desired certainty in the results - I hope I am wrong.
You could be right KiwiSteve. Who knows? But if current mortality figures in the US are correct, and Attia puts them around 60,000 or so (as does Fauci) what are the economic ramifications for continuing the lockdown?. And how do those mortality rates figure into the equation? Those living paycheck to paycheck (the average person in the US only has $400 in savings ); those who have no support system/family; those who are have substance abuse issues; those who are victims or find themselves victimized re:domestic abuse; small businesses?

That is my concern! Are the efforts worth the potential societal costs? I guess it is anyone's guess at this point. One thing is for sure, the longer the lockdown the more the economic and societal pain. And if as Attia writes, this looks like a bad case of influenza in terms of the number of cases - then why?

My husband and I continue to observe social distancing; we are probably neurotic about it when walking our dog. That said, I really worry about the lockdown and long term consequences.
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  #7874  
Old 20.04.2020, 22:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Contributing to the stream of positive news: McDonalds reopens the drive-thrus next Monday 27th April https://www.mcdonalds.ch
Nah, they can stay closed!
When the chips were down we found out who our friends really were.

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Old 20.04.2020, 22:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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You could be right KiwiSteve. Who knows? But if current mortality figures in the US are correct, and Attia puts them around 60,000 or so (as does Fauci) what are the economic ramifications for continuing the lockdown?. And how do those mortality rates figure into the equation? Those living paycheck to paycheck (the average person in the US only has $400 in savings ); those who have no support system/family; those who are have substance abuse issues; those who are victims or find themselves victimized re:domestic abuse; small businesses?

That is my concern! Are the efforts worth the potential societal costs? I guess it is anyone's guess at this point. One thing is for sure, the longer the lockdown the more the economic and societal pain. And if as Attia writes, this looks like a bad case of influenza in terms of the number of cases - then why?
.
Why do you think this has been mainly about politics for at least 2 weeks now? The blame game, too, of course has already started and it will get so much nastier in the next few weeks. Some folks in power and some elsewhere will have very interesting discussions coming. Of course those suggesting an ideally permanent lockdown for all eternity will claim that it was that very measure that lead to this not being a complete public health disaster while others that were more skeptical from the beginning will say it was exaggerated from the get-go and shut-/lockdowns were never necessary. The truth will be somewhere in between those black and white views and take months or even years to come out.

Until it does, the world can focus on rebuilding the bigger debacle they just caused. Because as far as that disaster is concernd, we are merely seeing the very beginning.
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Old 20.04.2020, 23:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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But if current mortality figures in the US are correct, and Attia puts them around 60,000 or so (as does Fauci)...
The predictions are not correct. Most likely they reflect political tampering. The US will >100k reported deaths by end of May. Also, actual numbers deaths in US are about 50% higher than reported (clearly visible when you view deviations to mean). After May the US will continue at 10-20k reported fatalities a month.

US fatalities will probably finish at 300-700k.

The evidence is clear if you look at the model. It predicts Italy and Spain have 0 daily fatalities after the middle of May.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy
https://covid19.healthdata.org/spain

For the US it predicts 0 daily fatalities after the end of May.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Think about it. 0 daily fatalities. The virus 100% eradicated within 2.5 months. How likely does that seem to you?

The predictions rely upon a symmetric run-down of the daily fatalities. Compare that to the actual run-down pattern of daily fatalities.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

The only country that managed a symmetric run-down of daily fatalities was China. And they had a 100% lockdown of Wuhan for 2.5 months. Nobody left their homes. They treated the hospital wards like bio-hazard zones, with 100% containment. Meanwhile the rest of the country was able to continue working.

Look at South Korea - they have massive testing and 100% contact tracing, yet still run at 100 deaths a month even with fully locked down borders (would be 700 monthly for US, if adjusted for population).

The virus is here to stay. Fatalities for western countries will be between 0.1 to 0.3% of population and will be 90% finished in 12 months. (9 to 27k for Switzerland, and 8-20m globally).

Years lost per fatality will be <5 years since most are elderly. (that's the good news). What is uncertain is long term effects on younger folks who had serious cases but don't die.

My 2 cents. Fwiw I build models for a living.
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Old 21.04.2020, 00:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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The predictions are not correct. Most likely they reflect political tampering. The US will >100k reported deaths by end of May. Also, actual numbers deaths in US are about 50% higher than reported (clearly visible when you view deviations to mean). After May the US will continue at 10-20k reported fatalities a month.

US fatalities will probably finish at 300-700k.

The evidence is clear if you look at the model. It predicts Italy and Spain have 0 daily fatalities after the middle of May.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy
https://covid19.healthdata.org/spain

For the US it predicts 0 daily fatalities after the end of May.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Think about it. 0 daily fatalities. The virus 100% eradicated within 2.5 months. How likely does that seem to you?
It is to me 100% unlikely that any of those predictions become true, they rely on almost full lock-down and we'll start easing restrictions the moment we feel numbers allow us to do so meaning we'll see deaths for a very long time and at least this whole year. Also countries differ and where a Switzerland can effort the pain of going into even a full lock-down for 2 months other countries (or regions in those countries) simply cannot do such. Look at Italy, the North can do so, but the South is where the mafia is gaining ground again doing what the government fails to do which is allowing people to eat. In America how on earth would they be able to lock-down a town like Detroit where so many people already struggle for their daily existence without Corona.
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Old 21.04.2020, 00:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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The only country that managed a symmetric run-down of daily fatalities was China.
Up until April 17th, when they had 1'290 confirmed fatalities for that day.
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Old 21.04.2020, 02:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did I read that right, that Swedes do not support their government's decisions? Or did they support initially because it seemed so great and now they think wait, maybe we celebrated too soon?
The Swedes just took a different path and a lot has more has been made of this than has actually happened. Many of the rules that apply to us in Switzerland are also being advised in Sweden, the only difference being that they're advised and not enforced, and the Swedish people are encouraged/expected to make a choice dependent on their individual cicumstances/risk level, etc.

One thing they have in common with Switzerland is, when Sweden decided to close it's borders, it was only after their neighbouring countries had closed their borders with Sweden. Primary schools remained open whilst secondary schools and universities closed. Rules regarding social distancing, gatherings over 500 people and unnecessary travel are all in place in Sweden, but they're advised and expected rather than enforced. However, this position is rapidly changing...

Before Easter, Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf gave a televised address asking the people to stay at home over Easter. https://www.thelocal.se/20200405/in-...-to-the-nation

To answer your question, yes, opinion is divided in Sweden, and the article quoted is worth reading in full...
Quote:
Sweden's lead epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has come in for criticism from scientists too, who say the country should have acted faster and gone further with its measures. A group of 22 researchers penned an op-ed in the daily Dagens Nyheter on Tuesday saying the Public Health Agency — of which Tegnell has been the public face — "had failed."
https://www.politico.eu/article/stoc...virus-covid19/

Saab have cut the working hours of 500 employees by 40% and have suspended it's dividend because of a drop in demand caused by the worldwide pandemic... https://www.janes.com/article/95208/...us-uncertainty
https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26...ployees_by_40_

In the last week...
Quote:
MPs in Sweden have given the government extra powers to curb the rising COVID-19 death toll in the country. The government will be able to approve bills related to the health emergency - for examples closing businesses and schools - without having to go through parliament first....
...

These new temporary powers were approved by parliament on Thursday (April 16) and will be in place from Saturday, April 18, until June 30.


On the same day, Sweden's prime minister Stefan Löfven announced in a press conference that the entry travel ban in Sweden will be extended for another 30 days, as it was due to end this week.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/16/...it-record-high


When I consider that 15,000 people per day are still flying into the UK without any health checks or self-isolation advice, it makes me wonder which country is truly in lockdown, the UK or Sweden.
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Old 21.04.2020, 02:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not reading anything in. Your phrasing threw me for a loop and so I asked what you were trying to say. Had you written "I don't know any Swedes that support their government in this" then it would have been clearer (to me, anyway). Thanks for clarifying.
FWIW I had the same problem and assumed that he had forgotten the 2nd part of a double negation ("I know of no Swede who does not support ...").
Thank you for posting your question.
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