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  #8021  
Old 22.04.2020, 17:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Strange conclusion:
China, denial, late lockdown, disaster
Italy, late lockdown, disaster
Britain, very late lockdown, disaster
Sweden, limited lockdown, developing disaster
USA, late limited ( from state to state) lockdown, disaster
The countries with reliable lower covid death numbers either locked down early /or had extensive testing, tracing, isolation programmes.
These are all real settings.
Switzerland, limited lockdown, early but not superearly, no disaster.
Germany, limited lockdown, early but not superearly, also no disaster.
South Korea, no lockdown, quick response with different measures, no disaster.

Define "disaster" and again, there's a difference between what the virus is and does and the ability of healthcare systems as well as governments to respond to any form of shock to the system. Some have been perfectly able to respond vs others who have not and that varies widely even within countries. The reasons for that are extremely multifaceted and it's impossible to look at just one factor.

Also, China never shut down entirely.
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  #8022  
Old 22.04.2020, 18:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Blood transfusions and plasma treatments were tried back in 1918. Don't know if they worked. I guess not.
Unfortunately the Spanish flu outbreak occured during the final year of World War One. It's still a mystery where this flu
originated from and it only acquired it's Spanish flu tag thanks to neutral Spain coming out and admitting that
their King had gone down with it.

The major World Powers at the time 'were locked in war' and censored anything that might affect morale
during the war.
So maybe even the Doctors & medics early efforts of combating the disease was censored or kept secret
during the war.
It's been theorized by a virologist called John Oxford, that the outbreak started at a British army staging
post & hospital camp in Etaples on the Western Front. The same hospital was also home to pigs & poultry
brought in as food supplies that could have mutated the disease, from birds, to animals and finally
onto humans or so John Oxford reckoned.
There is a report that the 1918 virus circulated for months in many European armies fighting the war.
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Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?
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Old 22.04.2020, 19:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Has anyone else noticed that many seem to have just given up on social distancing? Especially young people and teenagers? I've seen many groups hanging out together.
Young people and teenies did not care from the very beginning and continue doing that. I've seen groups of teenagers on the week of 16th March, I see them now behaving exactly the same.

On the other hands, adults seem to have become somewhat more relaxed, plus it seems like hiking season is about to start and people started travelling across the country more.

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Australia's curve looks beautiful
That gives us some hope for seasonality, as it was late summer in AU when they had the outbreak. Or, is this really hope? Is seasonality of the virus a good thing? Expect 1 month shutdown twice a year...
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  #8024  
Old 22.04.2020, 19:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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That plus we need to understand how it operates/moves in real settings instead of these artificial conditions that have been created. From that perspective, easing measures step-by-step seems reasonable and logical. That’s of course assuming lockdowns made sense to begin with - which we don’t know yet either, at least not for anything other than to mitigate pressure on already extremely fragile healthcare systems in some areas, though also not all.
Maybe I can provide an example. The football game Atalanta-Valencia played in Milano on Feb 19 has already been described as a "biological bomb". Close to 2500 Valencia fans travelled there and it is reasonble to assume that some of them took the virus back home. Of course, maybe the virus was already in Valencia: early March a necropsy on a man who died on Feb 13 and who had been to Nepal showed he was positive and you can bet he not treated with adequate care to prevent contagions. But surely this game and the fans who travelled gave it a push.

Spain did absolutely nothing (apart from saying "oh no, nothing to worry about, just a couple imported cases that we have under control") until the 14th of March. Now look at the total death figures (all causes) here and scroll down to Comunidad Valenciana, fifth row, right side. Since the peak is on March 27 it is reasonable to assume that people dying those days were infected before any measure was taken on the 14th. Fatalities figures remain high for around one week, then they start going down.

Look at other regions as well: Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla-León and Madrid show peaks of deaths four to six times the average values, Cataluña and País Vasco and some other less populous regions show peaks more than twice the average. In nearly all cases fatalities start decreasing beginning of April, although as I already mentioned in other posts the data is incomplete for the last few days, at least in some regions.

I see basically two options for the deaths to start decreasing: either the lockdown was effective in reducing the spread, or the deaths declined because everybody was already infected and those who had to develop serious symptoms already did. I think the second one is not realistic, so one has to accept that the lockdown stopped the spread. Of course, one could still question whether a softer lockdown could have been equally or similarly effective, or whether the measures are being lifted too slowly, or even whether the measures were required in all the territory since some regions have been nearly not affected at all. But what would have been the death toll in the most affected regions if no measures had been taken?

Now you can say that the health system in Spain is weak and was totally overwhelmed, but this was not the case everywhere. Right now Geneve has 205 deaths, which is just over 40 per 100,000 inhabitants. The figures for the different Spanish regions are here, half of them are above that but Valencia for instance is at "just" 22 and you have seen what the curves looked like. The problem when looking at national aggregated data such as these one from BFS is that you miss the geographic distribution and you do not see the "hot" spots. I would be grateful if someone could provide similar data split by cantons.
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  #8025  
Old 22.04.2020, 19:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Cases are massively under counted there (as are deaths but not by as much), giving a higher apparent death to cases ratio
Totally agree. I've been estimating the cases by using the number of fatalies as the starting point, assuming that 0.5 - 1% of cases result in fatalities. Reason is, whilst yesterday Canton Zurich had 3,280 cases and 105 fatalities in total to date, my UK home town has only recorded 437 cases, yet has had 111 fatalities in total to date. That's a good few thousand people undiagnosed.
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Old 22.04.2020, 19:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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Unfortunately the Spanish flu outbreak occured during the final year of World War One. It's still a mystery where this flu
originated from and it only acquired it's Spanish flu tag thanks to neutral Spain coming out and admitting that
their King had gone down with it.

The major World Powers at the time 'were locked in war' and censored anything that might affect morale
during the war.
So maybe even the Doctors & medics early efforts of combating the disease was censored or kept secret
during the war.
It's been theorized by a virologist called John Oxford, that the outbreak started at a British army staging
post & hospital camp in Etaples on the Western Front. The same hospital was also home to pigs & poultry
brought in as food supplies that could have mutated the disease, from birds, to animals and finally
onto humans or so John Oxford reckoned.
There is a report that the 1918 virus circulated for months in many European armies fighting the war.
Yeah. I've read Pale Rider. Still, the plasma/blood transfusion treatment was tried then, and I don't recall it being a major success.
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  #8027  
Old 22.04.2020, 19:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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I see basically two options for the deaths to start decreasing: either the lockdown was effective in reducing the spread, or the deaths declined because everybody was already infected and those who had to develop serious symptoms already did.
You've hit the nail in the head, literally. This is it. Now, you don't believe in the second theory but I believe in the future we will arrive at that same conclusion that in fact the spread happened long before we introduced the measures.

1. The simple fact that both Spain and Italy have been in strict lock down for 6 weeks yet their daily numbers of infections have stayed abnormally high of what they should have been 2 week into the lock down (the time of incubation). People have been in quarantine for 6 weeks yet numbers are still in the thousands on a daily basis. Explanation? Either the virus is spreading super easily in the air or most of the transmission happened before the lock down and in the weeks that followed the symptoms showed. So, the result would be the same, lock down or no lock down, we can't really effectively limit the virus spread.

2. Switzerland is another example where we haven't had a real lock down, we are close to Italy, people are still going up and down the borders, most people still work and there hasn't been an explosion of new cases here. If Spain was affected by Italy, imagine how affected Switzerland should have been with all the people from the Milano region coming for business in Switzerland and vice versa?

3. There have been 2 studies (one by ETH Zurich another one by the German CDC equivalent) that estimate that the virus was already in decline days before or on the day when the measures were introduced
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  #8028  
Old 22.04.2020, 20:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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You've hit the nail in the head, literally. This is it. Now, you don't believe in the second theory but I believe in the future we will arrive at that same conclusion that in fact the spread happened long before we introduced the measures.

1. The simple fact that both Spain and Italy have been in strict lock down for 6 weeks yet their daily numbers of infections have stayed abnormally high of what they should have been 2 week into the lock down (the time of incubation). People have been in quarantine for 6 weeks yet numbers are still in the thousands on a daily basis. Explanation? Either the virus is spreading super easily in the air or most of the transmission happened before the lock down and in the weeks that followed the symptoms showed. So, the result would be the same, lock down or no lock down, we can't really effectively limit the virus spread.

2. Switzerland is another example where we haven't had a real lock down, we are close to Italy, people are still going up and down the borders, most people still work and there hasn't been an explosion of new cases here. If Spain was affected by Italy, imagine how affected Switzerland should have been with all the people from the Milano region coming for business in Switzerland and vice versa?

3. There have been 2 studies (one by ETH Zurich another one by the German CDC equivalent) that estimate that the virus was already in decline days before or on the day when the measures were introduced
Still not replaced that logic circuit?
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Old 22.04.2020, 20:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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3. There have been 2 studies (one by ETH Zurich another one by the German CDC equivalent) that estimate that the virus was already in decline days before or on the day when the measures were introduced
A decreasing R0 does not equal a decreasing virus. The rest of your post is just to painfully wrong to even attempt to correct it.
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Old 22.04.2020, 20:33
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Re: Coronavirus

I really wish you were right, but I don't believe it is the case. I personally think the virus is not "so contagious" as some people portray it, for instance this worries about how many surfaces you touch before you leave your building, or because someone crossed you in the street at less than 1 meter. Groan at me if you like, but if the virus were that contagious Switzerland would have had 5 million cases long ago. Or look at the cases of teachers in CZ that MusicChick mentioned... 129 teachers is not that many, furthermore that does not mean they got infected at school. If it were so contagious you would also have several thousand kids AND their parents, then thousands other colleagues of their parents, etc. So it cannot be that contagious.

What you mention about the new cases, even in Spain and Italy there still people going to work, people going to the supermarket, etc. There is also a lot more testing, and the percentage of positives is decreasing. In fact it is remarkable that even when tests focused on people with symptoms the percentage of positives was around 30%, see for instance the data for Geneva. The early conclusions of the seroprevalence study in Geneva showed around 5.5% people with antibodies; considerably higher than the around 1% officially confirmed cases, but far from herd immunity.
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  #8031  
Old 22.04.2020, 20:34
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Re: Coronavirus

This is the graph from ETH Zurich, on the webpage of St Gall Infectology Clinic, where Prof. Dr. med. Pietro Vernazza is chief infectiologist



https://infekt.ch/2020/04/sind-wir-t...-im-blindflug/

The chief infectiologist in St Gall thinks simple measures are sufficient in the battle with the virus. It's good he is not on EF because some will ask him where is his tin foil hat

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Simple measures are sufficient
These results contain explosives: Apparently these two works now show more or less identical: The simple measures, avoiding major events and the introduction of hygiene measures are highly effective. The population is able to implement these recommendations well and the measures can almost stop the epidemic. In any case, the measures are sufficient to protect our health system in such a way that the hospitals are not overloaded.
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  #8032  
Old 22.04.2020, 20:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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A decreasing R0 does not equal a decreasing virus. The rest of your post is just to painfully wrong to even attempt to correct it.
Oh yeah, I wanted to start writing the answer after reading the first half, but gave up after reading the second
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Old 22.04.2020, 20:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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You've hit the nail in the head, literally.
NO! That would require a hammer and nail - literally...
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Old 22.04.2020, 21:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is the graph from ETH Zurich, on the webpage of St Gall Infectology Clinic, where Prof. Dr. med. Pietro Vernazza is chief infectiologist



https://infekt.ch/2020/04/sind-wir-t...-im-blindflug/

The chief infectiologist in St Gall thinks simple measures are sufficient in the battle with the virus. It's good he is not on EF because some will ask him where is his tin foil hat
Where do you see a declining virus happening before any of the lockdown steps?
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  #8035  
Old 22.04.2020, 21:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Where do you see a declining virus happening before any of the lockdown steps?
Anyway, it is quite ridiculous to attempt to draw any conclusions from such faulty data; rubbish in = rubbish out.
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Old 22.04.2020, 21:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Anyway, it is quite ridiculous to attempt to draw any conclusions from such faulty data; rubbish in = rubbish out.
All true, however he again presents something as a fact and again his own links contradict him, so I'm curious if and how he would care to defend his behaviour.

PS: as for data in, and data out. The Swedes pulled back a calculation which gave an impossible outcome (can't have over 250% of a population infected :P ), after researching where it went wrong they declared that they entered a value wrong and did not notice this and since this gave a wrong result they changed another perimeter to get close to the target value. And he did not even look ashamed when he told such...

If I would have told any of my employers this is how I do my work I'd be sacked instantly, and this guy is allowed to stay on being a state adviser...

Last edited by EdwinNL; 22.04.2020 at 22:02. Reason: Plural issue :P
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Old 22.04.2020, 21:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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I really wish you were right, but I don't believe it is the case. I personally think the virus is not "so contagious" as some people portray it, for instance this worries about how many surfaces you touch before you leave your building, or because someone crossed you in the street at less than 1 meter. Groan at me if you like, but if the virus were that contagious Switzerland would have had 5 million cases long ago. Or look at the cases of teachers in CZ that MusicChick mentioned... 129 teachers is not that many, furthermore that does not mean they got infected at school. If it were so contagious you would also have several thousand kids AND their parents, then thousands other colleagues of their parents, etc. So it cannot be that contagious.

What you mention about the new cases, even in Spain and Italy there still people going to work, people going to the supermarket, etc. There is also a lot more testing, and the percentage of positives is decreasing. In fact it is remarkable that even when tests focused on people with symptoms the percentage of positives was around 30%, see for instance the data for Geneva. The early conclusions of the seroprevalence study in Geneva showed around 5.5% people with antibodies; considerably higher than the around 1% officially confirmed cases, but far from herd immunity.
Nobody is an expert here and nobody's opinion is being taken as correct/wrong, Alain Berset won't take your opinion into consideration, no matter how authoritarian others might sound on EF

Why would I groan you? I like to read how you think. There are other people in charge for groaning the opposed views

How contagious really is, it's anybody's guess now. There are many many contradicting reports. At this point, you simply choose a side

One thing is certain, that is the relatively low risk for the general population. All the numbers of age range for victims in all countries show similar pattern, below 65 risk is "non existent". Even for the older groups probably they have more chances of dying in a car accident than dying from corona.
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Last edited by V__; 22.04.2020 at 21:52.
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Old 22.04.2020, 21:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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All true, however he again presents something as a fact and again his own links contradict him, so I'm curious if and how he would care to defend his behaviour.

PS: as for data in, and data out. The Swedes pulled back a calculation which gave an impossible outcome (can't have over 250% of a population infected :P ), after researching where it went wrong they declared that they entered a value wrong and did not notice this and since this gave a wrong result they changed another perimeter to get close to the target value. And he did not even look ashamed when he told such...

If I would have told any of my employer this is how I do my work I'd be sacked instantly, and this guy is allowed to stay on being a state adviser...
Excellent that someone admits such a mistake. It actually makes Swedish policies much more credible as they show they can admit mistakes and learn.
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  #8039  
Old 22.04.2020, 21:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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those exact two subjects are important. And it is easy to motivate kids to care about them. The sci dossiers (biochem) and geography that were prepared and dustributed to students remotely are beautiful and well done. Those and bunch of others can be taught distantly.
We're talking about classroom lessons, not remote learning. If remote learning worked 100% (or at least as well as lessons at school) there'd be no need for lessons in the classroom. Limited classroom space, reduced group size and a limited amount of available teachers are likely to force adjustments.
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Old 22.04.2020, 21:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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...Groan at me if you like, but if the virus were that contagious Switzerland would have had 5 million cases long ago. Or look at the cases of teachers in CZ that MusicChick mentioned... 129 teachers is not that many, furthermore that does not mean they got infected at school. If it were so contagious you would also have several thousand kids AND their parents, then thousands other colleagues of their parents, etc. So it cannot be that contagious...
The thing is we don't know how many have actually been infected and we may never have accurate numbers. Up until recently, we've only been testing those with symptoms bad enough to make them go to hospital. Everyone else was told unless you can't breathe, just stay home and no test. Could we have 5 million people who've had it? Maybe, maybe not.

The testing situation is the same in many countries. Switzerland has tested 227,554 out of a population of 8 million. Even the Czech Republic has only tested 186,918 out of a population of 10 million. At best we can guess and extrapolate from the limited info we have, and the models and data to input are constantly shifting.
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