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  #8041  
Old 22.04.2020, 21:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've been wondering for a while if the UK has been hit by a different strain of the virus than Switzerland ...
Not really an answer to this, sorry, but it made me think: perhaps winter/spring of 2020 has been a good drill to be prepared for the possible much deadlier strain which might appear in the future...
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  #8042  
Old 22.04.2020, 21:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yeah. I've read Pale Rider. Still, the plasma/blood transfusion treatment was tried then, and I don't recall it being a major success.
Who can say - as who knows for sure ? - what you say is a failure when tried to combat Spanish flu could be
'just the ticket' for Covid-19 as these 2 viruses are not the same.
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Old 22.04.2020, 22:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Excellent that someone admits such a mistake. It actually makes Swedish policies much more credible as they show they can admit mistakes and learn.
Yes and no.

Changing perimeters to reach your target value instead of wondering why the target value is not being reached by the calculation is to me a huge mistake already, and than presenting on television the outcome of that calculation as a fact which would be that over 250% of the population in Stockholm is infected is just beyond stupid and shows to me a total lack of having any sense of what is happening.
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Old 22.04.2020, 22:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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We're talking about classroom lessons, not remote learning.
You suggested dropping geography or chemistry, innit, pops. I said those are important and can be taught remotely if, for example, they happened to be taught by one of your 10% of teachers in risk and they have to stay at home.

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If remote learning worked 100% (or at least as well as lessons at school) there'd be no need for lessons in the classroom. Limited classroom space, reduced group size and a limited amount of available teachers are likely to force adjustments.
You are barking at the wrong tree, as it seems to be the case tonight.

It is exactly what I wrote. Class sizes, then also probably masks, reduced objectives, etc. Our evening news also mentioned no oral Matu, but it is still in negotiation.

I think schools will open as suggested by CH gov. 11 May/June 8 but we will hear more on the 29th. There will certainly be adjustments in the way edu is organized.

Germany signals an increase in numbers..so we will see.
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Old 22.04.2020, 22:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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The thing is we don't know how many have actually been infected and we may never have accurate numbers. Up until recently, we've only been testing those with symptoms bad enough to make them go to hospital. Everyone else was told unless you can't breathe, just stay home and no test. Could we have 5 million people who've had it? Maybe, maybe not.

The testing situation is the same in many countries. Switzerland has tested 227,554 out of a population of 8 million. Even the Czech Republic has only tested 186,918 out of a population of 10 million. At best we can guess and extrapolate from the limited info we have, and the models and data to input are constantly shifting.
In theory we could have reached 5 million infected. But this would be very unreal. It would mean 58% being infected. Not even the current testing where we mainly target people with symptoms or professional groups like healthcare workers give results that come close to such number, and such targeted testing should be expected to reach numbers above average. To me we still have to wait for a large enough research like taking samples of 50.000 random people in Zürich, and compare that to the numbers on hospitalisations and deaths we know in Zürich to be able to extrapolate numbers over whole nations based on their hospitalisations and deaths.
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  #8046  
Old 22.04.2020, 22:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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In theory we could have reached 5 million infected. But this would be very unreal. It would mean 58% being infected. Not even the current testing where we mainly target people with symptoms or professional groups like healthcare workers give results that come close to such number, and such targeted testing should be expected to reach numbers above average. To me we still have to wait for a large enough research like taking samples of 50.000 random people in Zürich, and compare that to the numbers on hospitalisations and deaths we know in Zürich to be able to extrapolate numbers over whole nations based on their hospitalisations and deaths.
I agree, I'd be surprised if it's 5 million. Even the few random tests that have been done in other places are all over the map. I've lost track of details in this huge thread, but think one retirement home in Germany tested everyone and 40% were positive or something, but elsewhere 1,500 people in a community were tested and only a few percent were positive. We need many thousands of random tests. But that costs money.
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Old 22.04.2020, 22:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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I agree, I'd be surprised if it's 5 million. Even the few random tests that have been done in other places are all over the map. I've lost track of details in this huge thread, but think one retirement home in Germany tested everyone and 40% were positive or something, but elsewhere 1,500 people in a community were tested and only a few percent were positive. We need many thousands of random tests. But that costs money.
Yes it would cost money, but relatively small amounts compared to what could be gained by knowing so much better what is actually happening, it be of great help to ease restrictions in a way that finds a maximum balance between hospitalisations and getting the economy going again, we'd earn those few millions of such testing back so easily. If it would show 40% we can open the stores, restaurants and schools the next day with some guidelines, if it would show 1% we know that to much openings would force healthcare to choke unless we go in lockdown again, or we simply keep things locked and open some things hoping the numbers stay within control while not knowing if we open to much or to little. The money for testing would be earned back so easily that I'm amazed that we're not doing that yet, if France wanted to do such testing in Paris or Zwitserland here in a large enough town for example the knowledge would be worth so much that to make such possible other countries should jump in and make it happen with providing tests and lab capacity.
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  #8048  
Old 22.04.2020, 22:57
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Re: Coronavirus

Mass testing needs to be repeated in order to hold any statistical value. The data expires too fast since people can test negative and get infected any second afterwards. Then there are false negatives, etc.
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  #8049  
Old 22.04.2020, 23:17
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Re: Coronavirus

Thubderf00t has more to say about the USA:

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Old 22.04.2020, 23:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mass testing needs to be repeated in order to hold any statistical value. The data expires too fast since people can test negative and get infected any second afterwards. Then there are false negatives, etc.
We have a pretty good idea of how it takes from being infected to end up in hospital or die, so we'd need to take all those samples at the same day and know how much hospitalisations and deaths we had till that moment and we need to use that data of how long it takes to keep adding the deaths and hospitalisations that should be considered or known to be infected already on the day of when we took the samples so we get a good idea of the relation between those numbers.

Test sensitivity is highly related to amount of false negatives, the most followed theory as for getting "infected again" is that a newer test is picking up remnants of the virus, and those who have tested positive again have not yet found to be contagious again strengthening the theory of remnants and test sensitivity. Also they tried to incubate the virus on a few of those people but could not do so which indicates that no live viruses are present. Also the new confirmations have been done with RT-PCR this is incredible sensitive and looks for genetic information of the virus regardless of the virus being dead or alive. I'm not to concerned about this, and I'd say we can neglect it.

Than there's testing for anti-bodies, this is less sensitive and more tricky due to change in amount of anti-bodies or perhaps hardly have any left. Testing the same large group just twice or even 3 times would already give a great insight in such.

And the first testing does not have to be incredible accurate, if it is 5% off (which be a huge variation), we risk 5% more deaths and hospitalisations, surely we'll build in a safety margin. But knowing that for example (very random numbers) 1.000.000 infections give on average 1.000 hospitalisations and 500 deaths (fine-tuned for areas based on important factors like age, obesity, heart conditions etc..), and knowing how much of your population already has been infected is worth so much that we should do such as soon as possible, atm we are losing billions and we're sailing blind and thus nobody really knows how much restrictions we can let go.
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  #8051  
Old 22.04.2020, 23:37
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Re: Coronavirus

There's been lots of talk in the UK Daily Briefings about developing new Smartphone Apps,
like a Coronavirus contact App, that would warn you if the virus goes up in your area
but like all of you have pointed out - the data fed into such Apps would only be
as good as the data that can be obtained by mass testing, that would take time and money.

Swiss Civil Defence already have their own Smartphone App to warn the
public about national and local emergencies but not sure about a Swiss CD App covering
the Coronavirus outbreak though ?

Therefore as we will all have to live with the presence of Covid-19 for now and in
the foreseeable future; until such time as a reliable vaccine or an inoculation against
the virus has been tested & made available. A feat many experts say could take
anywhere from 18 months to as long as 2 years and beyond to produce.
While in the meantime we will no doubt encounter more waves of the virus.

So it would be better for the respective governments, if they rolled out an App called
something like a 'Sound an Alarm' App for your Mobile which will ping you on your
Smartphone, to go indoors ready to 'Surf the Internet' when the second wave comes
along in your area ?

This could be readily available in the near future.
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Last edited by John William; 22.04.2020 at 23:52.
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  #8052  
Old 23.04.2020, 00:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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You suggested dropping geography or chemistry, innit, pops. I said those are important and can be taught remotely if, for example, they happened to be taught by one of your 10% of teachers in risk and they have to stay at home.
The fact of the matter is that I suggested dropping them from classroom teaching. Feel free to switch to remote learning but don't expect to be misunderstood if you don't make that clear. And no, you said the 10% teachers at risk can't be made to stay at home, which makes no sense in the first place.
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  #8053  
Old 23.04.2020, 00:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's been lots of talk in the UK Daily Briefings about developing new Smartphone Apps,
like a Coronavirus contact App, that would warn you if the virus goes up in your area
but like all of you have pointed out - the data fed into such Apps would only be
as good as the data that can be obtained by mass testing, that would take time and money.

Swiss Civil Defence already have their own Smartphone App to warn the
public about national and local emergencies but not sure about a Swiss CD App covering
the Coronavirus outbreak though ?

Therefore as we will all have to live with the presence of Covid-19 for now and in
the foreseeable future; until such time as a reliable vaccine or an inoculation against
the virus has been tested & made available. A feat many experts say could take
anywhere from 18 months to as long as 2 years and beyond to produce.
While in the meantime we will no doubt encounter more waves of the virus.

So it would be better for the respective governments, if they rolled out an App called
something like a 'Sound an Alarm' App for your Mobile which will ping you on your
Smartphone, to go indoors ready to 'Surf the Internet' when the second wave comes
along in your area ?

This could be readily available in the near future.
Apple and Google have developed something similar in the US but apparently it only works on the latest models and software. No doubt the Govt. will pay for our handy upgrades?
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  #8054  
Old 23.04.2020, 01:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thubderf00t has more to say about the USA:
Interesting. Swiss economy is burning 5B per week during corona. That's 20B per month. Given the two months pause that will be 40B gone just in losses. The Federal government already threw in 60B for the crisis, so effectively they will be keeping things afloat, very little will be left for potential development.

German temporary RAV numbers skyrocketed to double those of the 2008 crisis. Some 35% increase compared to 1991, the year of the unification

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Old 23.04.2020, 03:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Apple and Google have developed something similar in the US but apparently it only works on the latest models and software. No doubt the Govt. will pay for our handy upgrades?
Now it's funny you should say Google because if you watch the video link below of Wednesday's
UK Govt. Daily Briefing and fast forward it to 15 mins & 5 secs. You will hear Britain's Chief of
Defence Staff; Sir Nicholas Carter, single out a Reserve forces Major called Major Ed Gupter
who's normal day time job is working as a Logistic expert for Google's Transport network
across Europe, North Africa & the Middle East.

So these and other skills are being utilised by the British Army in responding to the present crisis.

UK government's Daily briefing for Wednesday 22 April
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Old 23.04.2020, 07:24
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Re: Coronavirus

Curves are so fascinating:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

Quote about the model that the NYT says is guiding the Trump administration response
"It makes its estimates by comparing the recent trajectory of the coronavirus in the United States with those of countries further along in their epidemics. That method allows them to estimate a trajectory without having to know too many facts about the disease itself."

NYT on corona vs normal flu:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html
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  #8057  
Old 23.04.2020, 08:03
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Re: Coronavirus

Will be really glad when they all get back to work. There's really too many of them wherever one goes at the moment. Very annoying!
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Old 23.04.2020, 08:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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The thing is we don't know how many have actually been infected and we may never have accurate numbers. Up until recently, we've only been testing those with symptoms bad enough to make them go to hospital. Everyone else was told unless you can't breathe, just stay home and no test. Could we have 5 million people who've had it? Maybe, maybe not.

The testing situation is the same in many countries. Switzerland has tested 227,554 out of a population of 8 million. Even the Czech Republic has only tested 186,918 out of a population of 10 million. At best we can guess and extrapolate from the limited info we have, and the models and data to input are constantly shifting.
If we had a lot more people who are infected that would be reflected in the number of fatalities or people in intensive care.

I think the lockdown, although not so drastic like in other places, has functioned pretty well. Some here insist it was an unnecessary measure despite all the evidence.
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Old 23.04.2020, 08:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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If we had a lot more people who are infected that would be reflected in the number of fatalities or people in intensive care.

I think the lockdown, although not so drastic like in other places, has functioned pretty well. Some here insist it was an unnecessary measure despite all the evidence.
of course it was necessary. And not just to stop corona from spreading
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  #8060  
Old 23.04.2020, 08:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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If we had a lot more people who are infected that would be reflected in the number of fatalities or people in intensive care.
Or reflected in commonsense.

Think of your group of acquaintances, family and friends in Switzerland. How many have mentioned even getting the sniffles in the last 6 weeks of "lock-down"? How many have got sick? 10%, 50%, 1 or 2? I have a group of with some 100 Whatsapp users in Switzerland, and none of them have reported anything. I have other friends who have had seriously caught it but of the 100 - 150 people I've spoken to in the last month, 2 caught it and they caught it in France. There is no way, it has been so wide-spread here.

You'd probably also find people in Singapore saying the exact same thing before their death or infection rates exploded, just as you do in Sweden ...
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