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  #8601  
Old 29.04.2020, 21:58
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Re: Coronavirus

Great post RufusB! Here is my take... From what I have read, this virus is here to stay until a vaccine is developed (and that is at least 18 months away - in a best case scenario).

We cannot shutdown the economy in the US, UK or Europe for 18 months; that is untenable/unsustainable.

And so, businesses need to reopen, and those at great risk need to quarantine. No doubt there will be a spike in those infected, but hopefully antivirals will help mitigate the issue so the hospitals will not be overwhelmed.

The only way out of this as I see it is to attain herd immunity until a vaccine can be approved.

New Zealand and Australia have done well - thus far - as they shut down early. That said, what happens when they open up? This virus will not go away; if they can afford to shut down for 18 months, well good on them! I doubt Australia can do so as they are so reliant on China. Not sure about NZ as I don't know what drives their economy.

Looking at the data, I think Sweden made the right call. But who knows? In time, we shall see...

Last edited by terrifisch; 29.04.2020 at 23:50.
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  #8602  
Old 29.04.2020, 21:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm confused by your confusion. I believe I have been entirely consistent in my view.

I have never believed lockdown was to eradicate the virus. I understand it is to minimise the spread and stop overloading medical services. I'm not sure where I've said differently.

I think we are some way away from vaccines.

I think, as horrible as the lockdown is, opening up too soon is a bad move.

I also think that folk advocating, essentially, that the (relative) "few" should take the hit for the many so as for the many not to be economically disadvantaged is callous.

I think advocating social distancing whilst also opening schools is an untenable position.

I think key workers are still grossly undervalued in all senses of the word.

I believe that "eradication" is possible but unless we all are able to replicate the population/country size ratio of NZ, it's a moot point.

I think Chris Hemsworth should always either be wet or have his shirt off.

Hopefully that clears stuff up. I know a few of you have been wondering about my stance vis a vis Mr Hemsworth.
Ok. So your position is to maintain lockdown in at least most of the sense of the word for the foreseeable future to avoid risk of relapse even if it is unlikely to eradicate the virus? I guess that applies to CH too (even bearing in mind that we are c. a month infront of the uk)? Ok I get that

I hope and believe you are wrong that ending the lockdown will result in cases rocketing again. I believe that by and large enough people are behaving very well indeed, and that there's been a large amount of corporate responsibility too. I think there's a realisation this is not going to go away. Sweden has definitely ended exponential growth without a lockdown (even if you think it could have done with a brief lockdown first which is by the by it's now got a reproductive rate of less than 1 without lockdown). Asian countries also seem to cope with schools being open.

Even I am wrong I think we have at least to try, as the alternative is probably years of lockdown, because the signs are encouraging that our behaviour doesn't have to be perfect to control the disease.

For me, what's crucial is that we all wfh for the foreseeable if we can as we are all much more infectious than kids, especially old folk. Yes you can pass on the disease if you are symptomless, but you are much less likely to do so.
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  #8603  
Old 29.04.2020, 22:01
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Re: Coronavirus

A recent study by an virology expert in Germany

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadmi...atient-age.pdf

and for the Twitter link

https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status...55995671150597

The paper shows that the viral load does not depend much on age, i.e. children can get as contagious as adults.
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  #8604  
Old 29.04.2020, 22:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Conflicting reports regarding Gilead's anti-viral, remdesivir. The company recently completed blind trials through the NIH (National Institute of Health) with positive results which were announced today while the Lancet just released a paper on remdesivir based on a study in Wuhan, China saying there was no material benefit to those who received the drug based on their study. Hmmm...

https://www.ft.com/content/1625275b-...8-661f8243890d
Behind a paywall. Hereís another source....
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti...ng_News_Active

Itís possible that the differences in results are due to a small sample size - thatís generally what an underpowered study suggests.
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  #8605  
Old 29.04.2020, 22:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Behind a paywall. Hereís another source....
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti...ng_News_Active

Itís possible that the differences in results are due to a small sample size - thatís generally what an underpowered study suggests.
That's exactly what my source at Gilead said as did the NYT. You may have to cursor down through the article to get to the Redemsivir info...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/u...gtype=Homepage
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  #8606  
Old 29.04.2020, 22:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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A recent study by an virology expert in Germany

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadmi...atient-age.pdf

and for the Twitter link

https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status...55995671150597

The paper shows that the viral load does not depend much on age, i.e. children can get as contagious as adults.
An equally high viral load doesn't mean you are as contagious. If you aren't ill and aren't sneezing and coughing transmission is obviously less likely. Regardless of the truth, other countries are managing with schools intact. Trying a phased return to school rather than all at once makes sense.
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  #8607  
Old 29.04.2020, 22:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ok. So your position is to maintain lockdown in at least most of the sense of the word for the foreseeable future to avoid risk of relapse even if it is unlikely to eradicate the virus? I guess that applies to CH too (even bearing in mind that we are c. a month infront of the uk)? Ok I get that
My "position" is that this virus ia terrifying and that we should all do what we can to make this almost unbearable situation... bearable. You keep using the word eradicate. Not me.
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  #8608  
Old 29.04.2020, 23:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think Chris Hemsworth should always either be wet or have his shirt off.

Hopefully that clears stuff up. I know a few of you have been wondering about my stance vis a vis Mr Hemsworth.


Yes, I agree.
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  #8609  
Old 29.04.2020, 23:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think Chris Hemsworth should always either be wet or have his shirt off.
I totally support you on this one.
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  #8610  
Old 30.04.2020, 00:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Conflicting reports regarding Gilead's anti-viral, remdesivir. The company recently completed blind trials through the NIH (National Institute of Health) with positive results which were announced today while the Lancet just released a paper on remdesivir based on a study in Wuhan, China saying there was no material benefit to those who received the drug based on their study. Hmmm...

https://www.ft.com/content/1625275b-...8-661f8243890d
Somebody wants to earn some money, after burning cash on the development of Ebola treatment, which turned out to be not working.
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  #8611  
Old 30.04.2020, 07:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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  #8612  
Old 30.04.2020, 08:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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I remember wandering down Bahnhofstrasse ZŁrich last year and watching all these people with this glazed " consume " look in their eyes. They were like hypnotized. Well the virus seems to have broken the spell. Welcome to the real world!
But you were walking on Bahnhofstrasse too, observing people hungry for consume.....no? I mean, were you there to admire the architecture or maybe to hunt some discounts like everyone else and were pissed by the crowds, what on earth are they doing here at the same moment as me?

I mean, you are right, of course but but....
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  #8613  
Old 30.04.2020, 09:01
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Re: Coronavirus

And what is the relevance of this picture which is a couple of years old?

Last edited by EdwinNL; 30.04.2020 at 09:08. Reason: spelling
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  #8614  
Old 30.04.2020, 09:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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And what is the relevance of this picture which is a coupe of years old?
How it was in the pre Corona days!
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  #8615  
Old 30.04.2020, 09:08
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Re: Coronavirus

What the cigarette companies don't want you to know: In the absence of any other contributing medical problems 90 % of smokers end up with serious complications from a Corona virus infection
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  #8616  
Old 30.04.2020, 09:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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What the cigarette companies don't want you to know: In the absence of any other contributing medical problems 90 % of smokers end up with serious complications from a Corona virus infection
This is, of course, complete rubbish.
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Old 30.04.2020, 09:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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What the cigarette companies don't want you to know: In the absence of any other contributing medical problems 90 % of smokers end up with serious complications from a Corona virus infection
Rubbish.

Don't even have to look it up, Amount of people infected, amount of population that smokes and amount of hospitalisations are statistical evidence that this "fact" has been sucked out of your thumb.
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Old 30.04.2020, 09:14
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Re: Coronavirus

What about other infectional diseases? Are there any statistics in reductions of cases for other diseases because of the lock down?
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Old 30.04.2020, 09:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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What about other infectional diseases? Are there any statistics in reductions of cases for other diseases because of the lock down?
I have no doubt that less people get STD's with the bars and clubs closed.
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Old 30.04.2020, 09:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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What about other infectional diseases? Are there any statistics in reductions of cases for other diseases because of the lock down?
Doubt it. Apart from flu, infectious viral disease is not usually a significant issue in the west, statistical incidence is too low to show anything significant.

Apart from Measles in some countries where the idiot anti-vaxers have had their way.

Edit - and apart from what Edwin said.
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