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  #8701  
Old 01.05.2020, 21:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Brussels explicitly dictating - maybe, maybe not.

At the very least trying to find a concerted effort that applies for all EU/Schengen - you bet.

It sure as hell will be very much in the EU's interest to not have the entire freaking South dissolve into bankruptcy and 25, 30%, 35% unemployment.
If they open everything they still get much less tourism since a large group of people will have no need for hotels, airplanes, tourbusses etc.. this year. If they keep things closed they can blame Corona fully and hold up their hand, EU commission is already speaking about 1500/2000B extra needed, and the north can bleed for this.

Screw that.
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  #8702  
Old 01.05.2020, 21:31
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Re: Coronavirus

Stumbled upon a description of historic practice used in Russian countryside for centuries: normally a guest coming to stay who has travelled outside the village would be offered a sauna session straight away, before even entering the main house. In the sauna ("banya") their travel clothes are taken away for immediate washing and replaced with clean "house" clothing. Only after the sauna ritual they then proceed into the main house of the host...
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  #8703  
Old 01.05.2020, 21:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Stumbled upon a description of historic practice used in Russian countryside for centuries: normally a guest coming to stay who has travelled outside the village would be offered a sauna session straight away, before even entering the main house. In the sauna ("banya") their travel clothes are taken away for immediate washing and replaced with clean "house" clothing. Only after the sauna ritual they then proceed into the main house of the host...
So... like a more civilised sheep dip?
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  #8704  
Old 01.05.2020, 21:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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the sane conclusion: thank goodness for the lockdown in 2020, otherwise the number of weekly deaths would be how many times higher?
As for the additional deaths in Sweden: I would be highly pissed off just to be one of those additional deaths.

I second that ,good thing is there is no hell
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  #8705  
Old 01.05.2020, 22:50
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Re: Coronavirus

Sweden was pretty much unambiguously right about largely voluntary measures being enough to prevent exponential growth. Whether one is happy with saving X deaths for Y pounds/jobs is however a rather unpleasant judgement call (but one we have to make even outside times of crisis - eg in cancer drug funding).

Whatever everyones thoughts are on that issue, and there isn't a right answer to be honest, we are now all in the same boat as them as regards having a more open social distancing policy and relying on individual behaviour to keep R below 1.

On this point I'm a bit worried peoples behaviour is slipping a bit too far. I hope I'm wrong but expect a second wave in the next month or so looking at the trams outside my window, which seem to be getting busier daily. The weather isn't helping.
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  #8706  
Old 01.05.2020, 22:58
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I second that ,good thing is there is no hell
As nice as a thought as that is It's not really logical though is it? We could have completely locked down with no movement outside our property at all for months and have the army deliver food parcels to our door.

It's a matter of diminishing returns - as the measures get successively stricter they save fewer and fewer lives. You've got to make a call at some point when it's no longer "worth it" - not a nice phrase when it involves human lives I know. We aren't all going to have the same cut off point but we will all have one.
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  #8707  
Old 01.05.2020, 23:00
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Re: Coronavirus

The old "we have established you can be bought, now we're just determining the price"?
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Old 01.05.2020, 23:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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The old "we have established you can be bought, now we're just determining the price"?
I'm afraid that has to be the case. See for instance NICE in the UK - some drugs are not funded as they are too expensive. I don't think you can really have a serious issue with the principle.
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  #8709  
Old 02.05.2020, 07:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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So... like a more civilised sheep dip?
A sheep dip - sounds like an SVP idea
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  #8710  
Old 02.05.2020, 07:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sweden was pretty much unambiguously right about largely voluntary measures being enough to prevent exponential growth.
First lets see what Sweden does in the next few months. There will be a certain amount of stubborness to hold to their current policy in order to save face -I can't see them relaxing it and they may be forced to tighten it - if their policy turns out to have been OK for Sweden and opinions vary considerably about that, it is simply not true that voluntary measures would have generally worked in other countries -as I understand it, a big problem in Italy was the population in general not taking the initial precautions seriously.
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  #8711  
Old 02.05.2020, 12:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's a matter of diminishing returns - as the measures get successively stricter they save fewer and fewer lives. You've got to make a call at some point when it's no longer "worth it" - not a nice phrase when it involves human lives I know. We aren't all going to have the same cut off point but we will all have one.
Which makes me wonder what will happen to people like my friend who's shielding her 11yr old daughter with cystic fibrosis. She's worked from home for years, but her elder daughter's at college and her husband's an architect. I can't begin to think of what happens to these people.
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  #8712  
Old 02.05.2020, 12:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm afraid that has to be the case. See for instance NICE in the UK - some drugs are not funded as they are too expensive. I don't think you can really have a serious issue with the principle.
Oh but I can.
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  #8713  
Old 02.05.2020, 13:04
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Re: Coronavirus

So many people in Glatt centre today! I dont understand why they all shop on a Saturday! Many of them don't work because of virus but still choose to do this Saturday madness. Is it the herd instinct!! Also in Jumbo Dietlikon crazy with the cars and parking
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  #8714  
Old 02.05.2020, 13:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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So many people in Glatt centre today! I dont understand why they all shop on a Saturday! Many of them don't work because of virus but still choose to do this Saturday madness. Is it the herd instinct!! Also in Jumbo Dietlikon crazy with the cars and parking
Or maybe there are many more people who have to work Mo-Fr at the site than you think?
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  #8715  
Old 02.05.2020, 13:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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So many people in Glatt centre today! I dont understand why they all shop on a Saturday! Many of them don't work because of virus but still choose to do this Saturday madness. Is it the herd instinct!! Also in Jumbo Dietlikon crazy with the cars and parking
And you were there why?

Also, shops have not reopened so highly questionable that there were herds of people at Glatt. Funny how you seem to always encounter huuuuuge groups of people wherever you go (and are obviously part of those huuuuuge groups).

Lastly, another FYI, most people indeed work so nope, not everyone is taking 2 months of government-sponsored corona vacation
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  #8716  
Old 02.05.2020, 13:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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it is simply not true that voluntary measures would have generally worked in other countries -as I understand it, a big problem in Italy was the population in general not taking the initial precautions seriously.
Indeed, was discussing that with an Italian friend last week, and he said exactly that.

Tom
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  #8717  
Old 02.05.2020, 13:27
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Re: Coronavirus

Throughout this thread and all over the media, we've continually heard Covid-19 compared to flu, both in terms of seriousness and in death rates.

Here, a piece by a doctor that explains flu death numbers are often inflated estimates whereas Covid-19 deaths are actual counts (although there is some error in those numbers as well, it's not the same level of inflation):

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...4nXguxW7p9ZSnQ

Even without this, I think we can see the numbers for ourselves. One number often quoted is the CDC estimate of 69,000 flu deaths in the USA per year. According to Worldometers numbers as of yesterday: 65,753 Americans have died of Covid-19 since Feb 15 (77 days). Even if we conservatively go with only 1,000 new deaths per day, it means 4 more days until we reach the estimated annual flu death - and this is nowhere near over.

Flu: estimated 69,000 deaths in a year, at the high end
Covid-19: will be 69,753 actual deaths in 81 days, and likely underreported

Just 4 days ago, Reuters reported that the University of Washington's model was showing up to 74,000 Covid-19 deaths by August 4. If we use the conservative number of 1,000 new deaths per day, the U.S. will go past that mark in a matter of 9 days - on May 11, not August 4.

This is unfortunately going to be a long ride.
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  #8718  
Old 02.05.2020, 14:16
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...virus/12204836
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  #8719  
Old 02.05.2020, 14:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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And you were there why?

Also, shops have not reopened so highly questionable that there were herds of people at Glatt. Funny how you seem to always encounter huuuuuge groups of people wherever you go (and are obviously part of those huuuuuge groups).

Lastly, another FYI, most people indeed work so nope, not everyone is taking 2 months of government-sponsored corona vacation
Well I went there to buy a rivella. I was not there with a shopping wagen filled with 1000 goodies like everybody else. And the road to Jumbo ( I went by bus ) was completely blocked by cars wanting to park at Jumbo or elsewhere. There was even a fight going on between security people and a car driver.For sure 90% of these people could have shopped on another day. No wonder we have a virus problem in CH
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  #8720  
Old 02.05.2020, 14:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Throughout this thread and all over the media, we've continually heard Covid-19 compared to flu, both in terms of seriousness and in death rates.

Here, a piece by a doctor that explains flu death numbers are often inflated estimates whereas Covid-19 deaths are actual counts (although there is some error in those numbers as well, it's not the same level of inflation):

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...4nXguxW7p9ZSnQ

Even without this, I think we can see the numbers for ourselves. One number often quoted is the CDC estimate of 69,000 flu deaths in the USA per year. According to Worldometers numbers as of yesterday: 65,753 Americans have died of Covid-19 since Feb 15 (77 days). Even if we conservatively go with only 1,000 new deaths per day, it means 4 more days until we reach the estimated annual flu death - and this is nowhere near over.

Flu: estimated 69,000 deaths in a year, at the high end
Covid-19: will be 69,753 actual deaths in 81 days, and likely underreported

Just 4 days ago, Reuters reported that the University of Washington's model was showing up to 74,000 Covid-19 deaths by August 4. If we use the conservative number of 1,000 new deaths per day, the U.S. will go past that mark in a matter of 9 days - on May 11, not August 4.

This is unfortunately going to be a long ride.
How on earth will they get a true picture of the number of people that have been infected by Covid-19
( and recovered from the virus ) unless the entire population are tested !!

I don't think anyone has been tested for this or other viruses, SAR's MERS, etc, unless they fell
seriously ill from such viruses and admitted ( and no doubt ) tested for the virus after being taken
into Hospital; as well as those working in Hospitals and other healthcare & medical professionals
of course.

Although the tests are being rolled to Care home workers and other 'key workers' will no
doubt mean the tests will be far greater for Covid-19 than any other virus in many European
countries & there are test centres in some countries where you can 'volunteer to be tested'
but it's not compulsory unless you become seriously ill.
__________________
Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?

Last edited by John William; 02.05.2020 at 14:41.
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