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  #8841  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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A study from Germany believes that the number of infected is 10 times higher than originally believed. If this is the case, then the argument for lockdown becomes loses even more weight.
It's not that the argument for lockdown loses weight, it's that the case for universal testing of the entire population gains even more traction. Even so, the caveat is how long does immunity last, and we won't know that for a good while. Personally, I'd be absolutely overjoyed to have a test that confirms we've both had a very mild version of the virus and now have 2yrs of immunity to it. Who wouldn't!
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  #8842  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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If memory serves, some theorise that the virus "jumped" to humans using one or more species as intermediate hosts, as stepping stones if you will. If that's true, then it may be possible that animals from that/those intermediate species may have been imported into Europe, which then may have allowed the virus jumping to humans in multiple locations.

So far that's just speculation, mind.
It is a fact that a virus found in Chinese bats is 96% equal to current Corona, it can only jump and survive in a few species among which the most likely candidate would be a pig. Bats from china are not imported to Europe, and neither are pigs since the Chinese for over a year have a disease which eradicated more than half of all their pigs.

I'd say it is a very unlikely theory.

Last edited by EdwinNL; 04.05.2020 at 14:08. Reason: spelling
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Old 04.05.2020, 13:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's not that the argument for lockdown loses weight, it's that the case for universal testing of the entire population gains even more traction. Even so, the caveat is how long does immunity last, and we won't know that for a good while. Personally, I'd be absolutely overjoyed to have a test that confirms we've both had a very mild version of the virus and now have 2yrs of immunity to it. Who wouldn't!
We only know about 6 or 7 diff coronaviruses that made it to humans, of 3 we know that immunity lasts only 1 to 2 yrs, of the others like Covid-19 we have no clue yet.
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  #8844  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's not that the argument for lockdown loses weight, it's that the case for universal testing of the entire population gains even more traction. Even so, the caveat is how long does immunity last, and we won't know that for a good while. Personally, I'd be absolutely overjoyed to have a test that confirms we've both had a very mild version of the virus and now have 2yrs of immunity to it. Who wouldn't!
I still don't see the advantages of testing without tracing and/or without knowing if immunity is guaranteed once having had the virus.
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  #8845  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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First case of corona in France was 27th of December, a local man who didn't travel. That is 1 month before the official first case in France.

As it seems the virus is spread much more than some people think...

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/un-...bondy-20200503
Since Mr. Trump and Mr. Pompeo and their hangers on have invested so much political capital in the "China did it" theory, and the "China must pay" mantra, it would not surprise me if the involved professor of medicine and his institute now come under an intense smear campaign from the US with the objective of undermining these findings.
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  #8846  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:24
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Re: Coronavirus

Here's some highly recommended reading.

The article explains part of the epidemiology behind this mess and why it's important to keep the numbers low for the time being. The simulations enable the reader to play with the parameters and kind of create their own model for what would happen if things were different.

IMHO they could have added a graphics designer to the team to increase the visual attractiveness, but hopefully its looks won't deter too many of you.
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  #8847  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:25
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Re: Coronavirus

Mask enthusiasts rejoice! Face masks are also mandatory now in public transport in Spain. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52513516

I wonder what will be the policy in Switzerland from next Monday May 11th.
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  #8848  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still don't see the advantages of testing without tracing and/or without knowing if immunity is guaranteed once having had the virus.
That's because you're conflating the two types of testing. Live infection testing is the one which would require tracking. Antibody testing wouldn't.
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Old 04.05.2020, 13:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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A study from Germany believes that the number of infected is 10 times higher than originally believed. If this is the case, then the argument for lockdown becomes loses even more weight.

https://www.stern.de/gesundheit/-hei...r-9249388.html

10 times higher actually gives little reason to be positive, and actually is so low that it becomes an argument for lockdown.

Total population = 83.020.000
Total estimated infections would be: 1.8 Million.

Meaning 4.6%

4.6% infection rate gave 6,866 deaths (a lot more actually since of the current infected people plenty more will die)

Now get rid of all restrictions, have half the population infected meaning 45.4% more, gives a minimum of 60.000 deaths more, and also 10 times more hospitalisations than has happened up to now.

How exactly was that estimate an argument against lockdowns?
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Old 04.05.2020, 13:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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We only know about 6 or 7 diff coronaviruses that made it to humans, of 3 we know that immunity lasts only 1 to 2 yrs, of the others like Covid-19 we have no clue yet.

Why do you keep saying 'we' like you are some authority or part of an authority on this subject?
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  #8851  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why do you keep saying 'we' like you are some authority or part of an authority on this subject?
We as in "mankind" but if you lack such basic knowledge and insist on this being mentioned I could type "We (excluding CodPeace)" next time.
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  #8852  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still don't see the advantages of testing without tracing and/or without knowing if immunity is guaranteed once having had the virus.
Even if Covid-19 generally causes immunisation it's highly unlikely that 100% of the (formerly) infected will be. Nature doesn't work that way, there are "always" exceptions.
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  #8853  
Old 04.05.2020, 14:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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We as in "mankind" but if you lack such basic knowledge and insist on this being mentioned I could type "We (excluding CodPeace)" next time.

I was just wondering who you think you are representing.
Now I see you speak for all of mankind, nice of you to elevate yourself to that height.
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  #8854  
Old 04.05.2020, 14:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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I was just wondering who you think you are representing.
Now I see you speak for all of mankind, nice of you to elevate yourself to that height.
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  #8855  
Old 04.05.2020, 14:28
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Re: Coronavirus

As most people here know that not everyone is a native speaker can we maybe please just concentrate on the topic rather than on semantics?
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  #8856  
Old 04.05.2020, 14:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still don't see the advantages of testing without tracing and/or without knowing if immunity is guaranteed once having had the virus.
What would be telling is if there are any reported or documented reinfections of people who have had
Covid-19 in the past and then by some chance become reinfected and even seriously ill from it second time round.
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  #8857  
Old 04.05.2020, 14:52
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Re: Coronavirus

A bit of Chinese "propaganda".

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Old 04.05.2020, 14:53
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Re: Coronavirus

ooops, douple posting. Please delete.
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  #8859  
Old 04.05.2020, 15:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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A bit of Chinese "propaganda".
Except there was a bit of denial in the beginning from the Chinese part. But...do we still care at this point?
Wait, was that ironic?

Let's hope everyone learned their lessons and move on, establish better rules for WHO. And if there will be something like this ever again, we'd know to take it seriously and we'd know what to do. Fast.
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  #8860  
Old 04.05.2020, 16:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I was just wondering who you think you are representing.
Now I see you speak for all of mankind, nice of you to elevate yourself to that height.
Which begs the question, who were you referring to in this post?


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There have only been 3,300,000 confirmed cases of Covid 19.
We must wait for more data.
https://www.englishforum.ch/daily-li...ml#post3177366
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