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Old 12.05.2020, 21:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, it is not an old/ill person disease.

People of all ages catch it and some get so seriously ill that they require hospital treatment. Young and fit people respond better to hospital treatment and have a better chance of surviving although with lingering effects; sometimes lifelong effects.
I just have to show this graph again from the US CDC so demonstrating it is not an old/ill person disease.
Attachment 139413

Well, it is. Consider that only 16% of the US population is 65+ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...united-states/), yet they seem to have about half the hospitalizations and by far the highest ICU and death rate in your graph.
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  #9382  
Old 12.05.2020, 22:07
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Re: Do you know anyone who has lost their job because of Corona?

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When you say about Johnson is his weight was deemed a contributing factor then you have enormously expanded the "at-risk" group who should stay at home; about 40% of American adults are obese.

When you talk about "at the most risk" then we need to define what risk we are talking about.
I assume you mean the risk of death? But before that risk comes into play there is the risk of hospitalisation. Due to lockdowns, hospitals have not been overwhelmed.

In his testimony before the US Senate today, Fauci and his public health colleagues (including CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield) warned opening prematurely creates "a real risk you will trigger an outbreak you will not be able to control."

As I posted earlier many people of all age groups older than teens have been hospitalised but if the hospitals become overloaded then deaths will no longer be limited to the old and sick.
Again, NYC seemed the most at risk given nursing homes, obesity, hypertension etc... NYC has the most deaths in the US out of any other US city:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/cdc-...ronavirus.html

And yet, NYC hospitals were not overwhelmed despite Cuomo's mandate (requiring all nursing homes/elder care facilities to readmit Covid patients who were "medically stable" )

Despite this poor decision, NYC hospitals were NOT overwhelmed!

But as you bring up Fauci, what does he understand about economic fallout and those who fall prey to that fallout? I am talking about suicide and drug overdoses here.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/08/h...air/index.html

This lockdown is unsustainable on all levels! They need to lockdown elder care facilities and widely test those facilities (residents/patients/healthcare workers) and allow healthy individuals to return to work and resume their businesses.
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  #9383  
Old 12.05.2020, 22:17
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Re: Coronavirus

It comes to something when people are getting groaned for:
1) stating an accepted fact
2) backing it up with an esteemed medical reference website
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Old 12.05.2020, 22:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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It comes to something when people are getting groaned for:
1) stating an accepted fact
2) backing it up with an esteemed medical reference website
Rubbish.

He added the link after already being groaned, and Obese and overweight are not equal terms.
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  #9385  
Old 12.05.2020, 22:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you getting confused with the age and general health of people getting the disease and passing it on with the age and general health of people dying from it?

Being under sixty does not lower your chance of getting COVID-19 and passing it on to others - it lowers your chance of dying from it.

IMHO, if I wanted to minimise my chance of getting it, I'd avoid going to a gym before avoiding shopping for food.

In general, if you are less ill and coughing less you are less infectious. Does covid not follow this pattern?
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Old 12.05.2020, 23:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, it is not an old/ill person disease.

People of all ages catch it and some get so seriously ill that they require hospital treatment. Young and fit people respond better to hospital treatment and have a better chance of surviving although with lingering effects; sometimes lifelong effects.
I just have to show this graph again from the US CDC so demonstrating it is not an old/ill person disease.
Attachment 139413
Death rate to nearest thousandth of a percentile:

10-19: 0.0%
20-29: 0.1%

....

70-79: 25.1%
80-89: 30.4%

Source:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...e-group-italy/

That's more than a "better chance", it's chalk and cheese. It's a relatively minor illness in the healthy young (bearing in mind that 0.1% is likely to include significant numbers with significant pre existing conditions) and a significant killer in the elderly.

Covid is certainly less dangerous to the young than regular flu is to the old (0.83% death rate for 65+) - source http://www.businessinsider.com/coron...s-2020-3%3Famp.

Meanwhile it's those in their 20s who are disproportionately losing their jobs, source https://lenews.ch/2020/05/07/unemplo...n-switzerland/, and their futures to bale out the boomers.

Is there not a case that the 70 pluses should be the ones paying for their own protection? If I was in my 20s and healthy and I had been made redundant I'd be pretty angry right now.

PS - you've not shown *any* statistics showing the chance of developing long term issues as a result of coronavirus sorted by age. I could also not find any such statistics. I don't think this information is available yet. (Opinion) For me, it seems likely that the chance of developing long term symptoms will follow the chance of having serious lung damage - which sharply depends on age. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge however describes the risk to the young as "staggeringly low" - source http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020...tistician/amp/

PS2 - you claim that "young people respond better to treatment" - I'm not sure where this comes from. There barely is any treatment. Ventilators for instance have been shown to be highly ineffective with the type of lung issues presented by covid patients - source https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/. [opinion] Rather it seems to be the better outcome for young patients is as a result of less severe disease resulting from a stronger immune response.

I think all you've shown is that young people go to hospital (albeit at significantly lower rates), with milder symptoms than older people with more severe disease. I don't think that's a meaningful conclusion.

Last edited by jorido; 12.05.2020 at 23:33.
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Old 12.05.2020, 23:23
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Re: Do you know anyone who has lost their job because of Corona?

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Again, NYC seemed the most at risk given nursing homes, obesity, hypertension etc... NYC has the most deaths in the US out of any other US city:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/cdc-...ronavirus.html

And yet, NYC hospitals were not overwhelmed despite Cuomo's mandate (requiring all nursing homes/elder care facilities to readmit Covid patients who were "medically stable" )

Despite this poor decision, NYC hospitals were NOT overwhelmed!

But as you bring up Fauci, what does he understand about economic fallout and those who fall prey to that fallout? I am talking about suicide and drug overdoses here.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/08/h...air/index.html

This lockdown is unsustainable on all levels! They need to lockdown elder care facilities and widely test those facilities (residents/patients/healthcare workers) and allow healthy individuals to return to work and resume their businesses.
NYC hospitals were overwhelmed
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  #9388  
Old 12.05.2020, 23:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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In general, if you are less ill and coughing less you are less infectious. Does covid not follow this pattern?
No, COVID is also spread by asymptomatic people.
An asymptomatic carrier is a person who has become infected with a pathogen, but that displays no signs or symptoms. Asymptomatic carriers play a critical role in the transmission of COVID-19.
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  #9389  
Old 12.05.2020, 23:40
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Re: Do you know anyone who has lost their job because of Corona?

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NYC hospitals were overwhelmed
Not to the extent regarding ventilators which Cuomo said were necessary

There were plenty of ventilators and Cuomo overestimated New York's need. But, hey, squeaky wheel gets the oil...
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Old 12.05.2020, 23:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Death rate to nearest thousandth of a percentile:

10-19: 0.0%
20-29: 0.1%

....

70-79: 25.1%
80-89: 30.4%

Source:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...e-group-italy/

That's more than a "better chance", it's chalk and cheese. It's a relatively minor illness in the healthy young (bearing in mind that 0.1% is likely to include significant numbers with significant pre existing conditions) and a significant killer in the elderly.

Covid is certainly less dangerous to the young than regular flu is to the old (0.83% death rate for 65+) - source http://www.businessinsider.com/coron...s-2020-3%3Famp.

Meanwhile it's those in their 20s who are disproportionately losing their jobs, source https://lenews.ch/2020/05/07/unemplo...n-switzerland/, and their futures to bale out the boomers.

Is there not a case that the 70 pluses should be the ones paying for their own protection? If I was in my 20s and healthy and I had been made redundant I'd be pretty angry right now.

PS - you've not shown *any* statistics showing the chance of developing long term issues as a result of coronavirus sorted by age. I could also not find any such statistics. (Opinion) For me, it seems likely that the chance of developing long term symptoms will follow the chance of having serious lung damage - which sharply depends on age. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge however describes the risk to the young as "staggeringly low" - source http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020...tistician/amp/

PS2 - you claim that "young people respond better to treatment" - I'm not sure where this comes from. There barely is any treatment. Ventilators for instance have been shown to be highly ineffective with the type of lung issues presented by covid patients - source https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/. [opinion] Rather it seems to be the better outcome for young patients is as a result of less severe disease resulting from a stronger immune response.

I think all you've shown is that young people go to hospital (albeit at significantly lower rates), with milder symptoms than older people with more severe disease.
"young people go to hospital with milder symptoms" People with mild symptoms do not get hospitalised

Current clinical management includes infection prevention and control measures and supportive care, including supplemental ventilatory support when indicated. This ventilation support basically uses CPAP type machines; tubed ventilators are only used for most severe cases and are mostly unsuccessful.

There are many articles on long term effects, for example here.
Quote:
"We are seeing that patients are suffering from moderate to severe acute kidney injury in about 20-30% of patients and 30% of patients who are admitted to intensive care for Covid infection are requiring dialysis so the numbers are much bigger than we envisaged based on the data coming out of China."
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  #9391  
Old 12.05.2020, 23:48
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Re: Do you know anyone who has lost their job because of Corona?

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Not to the extent regarding ventilators which Cuomo said were necessary

There were plenty of ventilators and Cuomo overestimated New York's need. But, hey, squeaky wheel gets the oil...
Lockdown was more successful than expected.
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  #9392  
Old 13.05.2020, 00:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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"young people go to hospital with milder symptoms" People with mild symptoms do not get hospitalised

Current clinical management includes infection prevention and control measures and supportive care, including supplemental ventilatory support when indicated. This ventilation support basically uses CPAP type machines; tubed ventilators are only used for most severe cases and are mostly unsuccessful.

There are many articles on long term effects, for example here.
My friend back from the uk went in briefly as he felt rather breathless. He was fine within a week or two. I think understandably people are cautious when it comes to breathing.
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  #9393  
Old 13.05.2020, 03:47
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Re: Do you know anyone who has lost their job because of Corona?

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NYC hospitals were overwhelmed
Yes.
NYC paramedics / ambulance staff were overwhelmed, too.

Some hundreds or thousands of posts ago, someone on EF linked to a report written by a NYC paramedic, about how many, many more deaths they'd seen, day after day, and how they were all feeling drained, and how some of his colleagues were each even sleeping in their own cars, rather than return home after duty, lest they infect their families.
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Old 13.05.2020, 06:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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A Swiss family just booked my vacation apartment in the mountains for a week in July (a first booking since March), so I expect plenty of Swiss will be spending their dough in the home country...
This. And so many of us on EF, no? Tourism will be more local now, hotels etc won't need to bring huge crowds of people from all over the world. Maybe they won't make so much cash as before, but they'll survive.

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"young people go to hospital with milder symptoms" People with mild symptoms do not get hospitalised
.
Depends on where, which country, which place. Back home everyone who was confirmed covid-19 positive is hospitalised. Didin't even believe we still have a proper medical system* after the constant attacks it survived.
*that's because its people. Unassuming, quiet, hard-working people. Very grateful to them all.
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Old 13.05.2020, 07:37
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Re: Coronavirus

For anyone who thinks that most Covid-19 fatalities were at deaths door anyway, study in Italy indicates the average victim looses 11 (women) to 13 (men) years of life.

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/covid-1...t-606189193669
(might require registration)
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Old 13.05.2020, 08:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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It comes to something when people are getting groaned for:
1) stating an accepted fact
2) backing it up with an esteemed medical reference website
Obesity is the elephant in the room.

No one wants to talk about it and people who do get accused of all manner of things.

Sure, a small percentage of people get over-weight or obese due to medical conditions but if the majority are getting overweight due to medical reasons (as some people like to believe), then what is new in the world that is causing these medical conditions that bring on obesity?

Our knowledge of diet is greater than it has ever been.

Exercise does not play much of a part - it's mainly people eating too much of the wrong thing.
It's really pretty simple.

Losing weight or resisting the food and so not putting the weight on in the first place is the difficult thing - psychologically or physically.
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Old 13.05.2020, 08:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Obesity is the elephant in the room.

No one wants to talk about it and people who do get accused of all manner of things.

Sure, a small percentage of people get over-weight or obese due to medical conditions but if the majority are getting overweight due to medical reasons (as some people like to believe), then what is new in the world that is causing these medical conditions that bring on obesity?

Our knowledge of diet is greater than it has ever been.

Exercise does not play much of a part - it's mainly people eating too much of the wrong thing.
It's really pretty simple.

Losing weight or resisting the food and so not putting the weight on in the first place is the difficult thing - psychologically or physically.

Seek shelter, Tom!
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  #9398  
Old 13.05.2020, 08:57
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Re: Do you know anyone who has lost their job because of Corona?

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Yes.
NYC paramedics / ambulance staff were overwhelmed, too.

Some hundreds or thousands of posts ago, someone on EF linked to a report written by a NYC paramedic, about how many, many more deaths they'd seen, day after day, and how they were all feeling drained, and how some of his colleagues were each even sleeping in their own cars, rather than return home after duty, lest they infect their families.
One rather uncomfortable aspect was that they quickly built emergency hospitals in NYC but they were little used.
Why?
There was no proper well-publicised process for doctors in existing hospitals to order patient ABC to be shipped to a field hospital. Even if they managed to find a way through the system and give the order then it was very hard to find an ambulance free to provide the transport.
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Old 13.05.2020, 09:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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It comes to something when people are getting groaned for:
1) stating an accepted fact
2) backing it up with an esteemed medical reference website
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Rubbish.

He added the link after already being groaned, and Obese and overweight are not equal terms.
I said "severely overweight", otherwise known as obesity.

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You've touched upon a point there, "underlying health condition" for the most part means "severely overweight". Perhaps if people spent the lockdown losing weight rather than sitting on their sofa we'd see a lower fatality rate. Again, personal responsibility.
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Old 13.05.2020, 09:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is an outrageously vile statement. If you cannot see this then you perhaps should do some introspective evaluation of your own personal responsibility. If you can see this then.... troll. Big troll.
That's your choice to interpret it in that way. It remains a true and valid point nonetheless. Especially in a country where approximately 30% of the population are obese.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52561757
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930275
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