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  #9961  
Old 27.05.2020, 08:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona " fly-by" over Zürich today

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Did anyone else see these planes/jets flying over Zürich yesterday?
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  #9962  
Old 27.05.2020, 08:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did anyone else see these planes/jets flying over Zürich yesterday?
If a plane flys through the sky and only omtatsat sees it, did it really exist?

I didn't see them, but I did hear one at some point.
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  #9963  
Old 27.05.2020, 09:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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If a plane flys through the sky and only omtatsat sees it, did it really exist?

I didn't see them, but I did hear one at some point.
Yep here some too. Mainly at night (there seems to be a regular flight to Mumbai crossing me around 11pm). It's less than a few weeks ago though, strange.

If you open flight radar now, the sky is supposed to be covered in planes. Checking them out, most of them seem to be little private planes and helicopters. I guess, those private people are having the time of their lives, easy access to flight-routes. LOL.
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  #9964  
Old 27.05.2020, 10:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Spanish Health Ministry lowers coronavirus death toll by nearly 2,000

Who wants to bet this won't be the last time corona death toll is overestimated?
There's so much anecdotal evidence that many deaths have been incorrectly recorded as being down to coronavirus, it wouldn't surprise me if many other countries have over estimated their death toll.

The UK has in the region of 60,000 excess deaths over a normal period, yet "only" around 37,000 are due to the Coronavirus. I'm just waiting for the study that states the remaining 23,000 are due to the lockdown.

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7% change, a real game-changer
Are you showing us your strong grasp of statistics again?
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  #9965  
Old 27.05.2020, 10:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you showing us your strong grasp of statistics again?
It was him who suggested to stay and home locked and just print money for the economy to turn
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  #9966  
Old 27.05.2020, 10:59
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Re: Coronavirus

Talking about numbers, Qatar (47k cases, 28 deaths) and Singapore (33k cases, 23 deaths) are so different than the other countries.


What is the secret of their success? Do they manage to isolate the vulnerable population so well?
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  #9967  
Old 27.05.2020, 11:04
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Re: Coronavirus

On travel restrictions and border closures, WHO says they're pretty much entirely pointless, and have said that from the start. They have never revised their previous statements either. They make the concession that at the beginning of the outbreak, it was temporarily acceptable. By now it most certainly is no longer.

https://www.who.int/news-room/articl...id-19-outbreak

I mean this is just insane. The freaking World HEALTH Organization's entire recommendations are usual hygiene and coughing or sneezing into your elbow, yet somehow the world seems to think by shutting borders - yet allowing travel for citizens and PRs, as if the virus was somehow clever enough to identify someone's nationality - is the way to go. As if this crap was about "health", oh please...

For anyone still in denial about the political component and the fundamental restrictions on democratic rights we've been putting up with - rights that, mind you, are not just a "nice to have" (unless people somehow assume living in North Korea or Syria would be fun): https://www.theguardian.com/world/co...-free-movement
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  #9968  
Old 27.05.2020, 11:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Talking about numbers, Qatar (47k cases, 28 deaths) and Singapore (33k cases, 23 deaths) are so different than the other countries.


What is the secret of their success? Do they manage to isolate the vulnerable population so well?
The countries with the most impact seem to have higher percentage of elderly, if I recall well. Italy did.
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  #9969  
Old 27.05.2020, 11:12
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Re: Coronavirus

Another day another story saying that the lockdown was unnecessary.
As I've already said with the passage of time, ever more evidence comes to light that the hard lockdown was the gravest of errors.

First there is the evidence now known that the rate of infection R number was already well on the decline before hard lockdown was imposed in many countries.

Second we have the evidence of the differences between countries (and States within the US) where hard lockdown has been imposed that shows no statistical correlation between countries that imposed lockdown (France, Italy, Spain etc.) and those which didn't (Japan, South Korea, Belarus etc.) having any impact on death toll. Neither is there any correlation between the severity of the lockdown and number of fatalities.

Third we have the public health argument, that there will be many more deaths caused by the lockdown where it is still not clear whether lockdown has saved even a single life.

Fourth, economic damage, need I say more?

Fifth, countries that are coming out of lockdown have seen no second wave, and no dramatic increase in fatalities.

The only hope is we learn from this error and never repeat it again!

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/nor...n-health-chief
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  #9970  
Old 27.05.2020, 11:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Talking about numbers, Qatar (47k cases, 28 deaths) and Singapore (33k cases, 23 deaths) are so different than the other countries.


What is the secret of their success? Do they manage to isolate the vulnerable population so well?
One possible reason is it seems to be that countries that protected elderly and care homes and kept the virus out of hospitals have much lower death tolls.
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  #9971  
Old 27.05.2020, 11:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another day another story saying that the lockdown was unnecessary.
As I've already said with the passage of time, ever more evidence comes to light that the hard lockdown was the gravest of errors.

First there is the evidence now known that the rate of infection R number was already well on the decline before hard lockdown was imposed in many countries.

Second we have the evidence of the differences between countries (and States within the US) where hard lockdown has been imposed that shows no statistical correlation between countries that imposed lockdown (France, Italy, Spain etc.) and those which didn't (Japan, South Korea, Belarus etc.) having any impact on death toll. Neither is there any correlation between the severity of the lockdown and number of fatalities.

Third we have the public health argument, that there will be many more deaths caused by the lockdown where it is still not clear whether lockdown has saved even a single life.

Fourth, economic damage, need I say more?

Fifth, countries that are coming out of lockdown have seen no second wave, and no dramatic increase in fatalities.

The only hope is we learn from this error and never repeat it again!

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/nor...n-health-chief
Hindsight is always 20/20.
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  #9972  
Old 27.05.2020, 11:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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On travel restrictions and border closures, WHO says they're pretty much entirely pointless, and have said that from the start. They have never revised their previous statements either. They make the concession that at the beginning of the outbreak, it was temporarily acceptable. By now it most certainly is no longer.

https://www.who.int/news-room/articl...id-19-outbreak

I mean this is just insane. The freaking World HEALTH Organization's entire recommendations are usual hygiene and coughing or sneezing into your elbow, yet somehow the world seems to think by shutting borders - yet allowing travel for citizens and PRs, as if the virus was somehow clever enough to identify someone's nationality - is the way to go. As if this crap was about "health", oh please...

For anyone still in denial about the political component and the fundamental restrictions on democratic rights we've been putting up with - rights that, mind you, are not just a "nice to have" (unless people somehow assume living in North Korea or Syria would be fun): https://www.theguardian.com/world/co...-free-movement
This is a WHO statement that has got it wrong from a health perspective - the very low death tally in NZ is clearly due to travel restrictions and NZ in general seems happy to have paid the economic price.
However not every country is so easily able to control the entry of foreigners. No doubt some countries are using corona for their own political ends including to clamp down on the general entry of foreigners.
However this WHO statement is itself highly political as it makes broad sweeping statements that just do not apply to large parts of the world and for which hard data is missing.
This freedom of movement is an illusion.
It has always been dependent on the colour of ones passport and on the colour of ones skin.
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  #9973  
Old 27.05.2020, 11:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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no statistical correlation between countries that imposed lockdown (France, Italy, Spain etc.) and those which didn't (Japan, South Korea, Belarus etc.) having any impact on death toll.

I'm not sure if statistical studies make much sense at the moment due to possible differences in sample collection methods (death counts)
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  #9974  
Old 27.05.2020, 12:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hindsight is always 20/20.
It’s not only hindsight though. Plenty of people who said that from the start and I don’t mean EF members.

Example from 17 March https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/ Ioannidis is a physician and epidemiologist.
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  #9975  
Old 27.05.2020, 14:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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It’s not only hindsight though. Plenty of people who said that from the start and I don’t mean EF members.

Example from 17 March https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/ Ioannidis is a physician and epidemiologist.
Huh?
He's basically saying "We need more data. Reliable and statistically relevant data."
This has been said all along. And it still does, hence the gazillion studies in progress.

For instance:
"In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective [leaving schools in the UK open, and its potential consequences] was brilliant or catastrophic."

and

"If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe."
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  #9976  
Old 27.05.2020, 15:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Huh?
He's basically saying "We need more data. Reliable and statistically relevant data."
This has been said all along. And it still does, hence the gazillion studies in progress.

For instance:
"In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective [leaving schools in the UK open, and its potential consequences] was brilliant or catastrophic."

and

"If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe."
You're making a big mistake here, if you want to discuss at their level you should not read what it actually says, you should pick some fragments you like and fantasise your own article around it.

They've made it very clear by now that they have zero interest in arguing with facts.
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Old 27.05.2020, 16:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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It’s not only hindsight though. Plenty of people who said that from the start and I don’t mean EF members.

Example from 17 March https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/ Ioannidis is a physician and epidemiologist.
This kind of article reminds me of the climate debate.
I used to be a climate "sceptic" That was until it became very clear that climate deniers use the uncertainty in the numbers to propogate politically motivated arguments that they then back up by cherry-picking their "facts" and repeating every half-baked alternative idea, even when the idea has died and should be buried ( eg sun spot activity )

The world is warming
Humans are contributing significantly to that effect, whether or not they can stop it is uncertain.

The corona epidemic is natural, real and a threat to almost every populations health and well-being.
Herd immunity is a non-starter
Doing nothing is a non-starter
Measures have to be situation specific -it is a learning curve for everybody
Corona will not be contained without long term behavioural changes that are needed anyway to prevent / contain / deal with the next pandemic
The economies will survive, but some people will be better off and some worse -it is largely up to the politics how that turns out
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  #9978  
Old 27.05.2020, 16:25
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Re: Coronavirus

Also very curious with all that happens with the European Parliament whom now wants to start imposing their own taxes and wants to gain money from the capital market on their own.

If the EU would clash and fall there is at least one advantage thanks to Corona.
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Old 27.05.2020, 16:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Also very curious with all that happens with the European Parliament whom now wants to start imposing their own taxes and wants to gain money from the capital market on their own.

If the EU would clash and fall there is at least one advantage thanks to Corona.
Amen.
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  #9980  
Old 27.05.2020, 17:32
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Re: Coronavirus

ETH has modelled a second wave:

https://ethz.ch/de/news-und-veransta...berechnet.html

A second wave would come at a slower pace, but with more total deaths.

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ETH Professor Mohr says: "We have to be aware that if the number of reproductions is above 1, measures in schools, at work and in public life are worthwhile. They may seem exaggerated in individual cases, but they always save lives."
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