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  #10221  
Old 08.06.2020, 15:38
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Re: Coronavirus

Lockdowns not needed?

Well:

Quote:
Lockdowns reduced infection rate by 81%, study finds

Lockdowns had a dramatic impact on the spread of coronavirus in Europe with strict controls on people’s movements preventing an estimated 3.1m deaths by the beginning of May, with 470,000 deaths averted in the UK alone, researchers say.

Outbreak modellers at Imperial College London said that lockdown slashed the average number of people that contagious individuals infected by 81% and lowered the reproduction number, R, of the epidemic below 1 in all countries they observed.

The model shows that by 4 May between 12 million and 15 million people had become infected, but some nations were hit far harder than others. According to the model Belgium had the largest number of cases per capita with 8% of the population infected, compared with only 0.46% of Norwegians and 0.85% of Germans. Some 5.1% of the UK population was infected, according to a report published in Nature. “Our model estimates that we are very far away from herd immunity"
The full report can be found in Nature:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
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  #10222  
Old 08.06.2020, 15:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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They were still trending upwards when they opened. I don't think that speaks well of either the lockdown or easing of the lockdown.
i wonder if there is any statistical significant correlation between lockdown actions and covid cases...
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  #10223  
Old 08.06.2020, 19:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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They were still trending upwards when they opened. I don't think that speaks well of either the lockdown or easing of the lockdown.
Not a case of turkeys voting for Christmas, more of the chief turkey demanding Christmas.

Also of completely ignoring the White House guidelines for opening
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Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period

AND

Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
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  #10224  
Old 08.06.2020, 20:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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...and to reinforce that, it was announced yesterday that since the lifting of the lockdown measures the R0 rate in Switzerland is back above 1.0. Despite distancing still being required. Fortunately the infection levels are still low so this is not a significant issue. Yet.
With 0.87 for confirmed cases R0 is currently back below 1, according to the model by ETHZ's Stadler. However with 0.64-1.14 the confidence range is uncomfortably wide.
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Lifting lockdown is not a simple thing to implement, for example, look at Arizona daily confirmed new cases (5-day moving average) from the John Hopkins University report. Arizona stopped lockdown on May 15, of course, the governor is GOP so is immune to the virus!!
Please use a log y-scale next time, if available. It's much easier to see if the trend is accelerating or slowing down.
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  #10225  
Old 08.06.2020, 20:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Lockdowns not needed?

Well:

The full report can be found in Nature:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
The result will very much depend on the base. Defining base as "pre-Covid normal", or alternatively as "all that what was done under Covid before the lockdown", will lead to very different effectiveness.
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  #10226  
Old 08.06.2020, 22:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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I told you, I’ve looked and can’t find any convincing scientific proof that the lockdown has made any difference to the rate of infection. That’s why I’ve asked you to point me to where you’ve seen it.
Good news, I found the proof you were looking for.
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  #10227  
Old 08.06.2020, 22:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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Good news, I found the proof you were looking for.
Nature writes about estimates and policies. For example, South Korea didn't even have a lockdown.
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  #10228  
Old 08.06.2020, 23:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Nature writes about estimates and policies. For example, South Korea didn't even have a lockdown.
South Korea implemented a full lockdown (Restaurants, Bars, Museums, parks, and art galleries) in Seoul on May 28, Seoul has half of the population. Earlier they locked down all military bases.
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  #10229  
Old 08.06.2020, 23:39
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Re: Coronavirus

And so my question is, in Zurich 4+ weeks after "reopening" so to speak, why no spike in new infections here? There have been plenty of those disregarding social distancing and many not wearing masks, but the level of new infections - minimal at best.

https://www.corona-data.ch

Can anyone postulate why the numbers have not spiked in Zurich?
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  #10230  
Old 09.06.2020, 00:25
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Re: Coronavirus

Imperial College London warn we might still be a the beginning of the pandemic.

Imperial College London estimate that more than 3 million lives have been saved from the Coronavirus
in Europe thanks to the lockdown but it also warns we might still only be at the beginning of the pandemic.

BBC News - Coronavirus lockdown across Europe saved millions of lives
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  #10231  
Old 09.06.2020, 02:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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And so my question is, in Zurich 4+ weeks after "reopening" so to speak, why no spike in new infections here? There have been plenty of those disregarding social distancing and many not wearing masks, but the level of new infections - minimal at best.

https://www.corona-data.ch

Can anyone postulate why the numbers have not spiked in Zurich?
Perhaps because enough of the people are behaving sensibly enough, enough of the time.

Last edited by doropfiz; 09.06.2020 at 03:08.
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  #10232  
Old 09.06.2020, 02:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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And so my question is, in Zurich 4+ weeks after "reopening" so to speak, why no spike in new infections here? There have been plenty of those disregarding social distancing and many not wearing masks, but the level of new infections - minimal at best.

https://www.corona-data.ch

Can anyone postulate why the numbers have not spiked in Zurich?
Maybe lockdowns have no significant effect on infection rates.
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  #10233  
Old 09.06.2020, 08:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Imperial College London warn we might still be a the beginning of the pandemic.

Imperial College London estimate that more than 3 million lives have been saved from the Coronavirus
in Europe thanks to the lockdown but it also warns we might still only be at the beginning of the pandemic.

BBC News - Coronavirus lockdown across Europe saved millions of lives
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Nature writes about estimates and policies. For example, South Korea didn't even have a lockdown.
I've looked through both these studies and they don't prove anything conclusively and there are many errors. A few of the more obvious ones:

The paper in Nature doesn't make any comparisons between countries that implemented lockdown and countries that didn't. There is also no correlation between lockdown and reduction in infection rate so they use the all encompassing "other social distance".

The Imperial College study says that Sweden's lockdown reduced deaths by 90%, as any reader here knows, Sweden didn't even have a lockdown! Many assumptions also made over the rate of infection, the fatality rate etc. Basically the same bumpf that was used in the flawed statistical models used by Professor Neil Ferguson.

Finally, if lockdown was so successful in reducing the rate of infection, as Phil_MCR pointed out, why haven't we seen a second wave? Parts of Europe have been open for 4 weeks now!
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  #10234  
Old 09.06.2020, 08:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've looked through both these studies and they don't prove anything conclusively and there are many errors. A few of the more obvious ones:

The paper in Nature doesn't make any comparisons between countries that implemented lockdown and countries that didn't. There is also no correlation between lockdown and reduction in infection rate so they use the all encompassing "other social distance".

The Imperial College study says that Sweden's lockdown reduced deaths by 90%, as any reader here knows, Sweden didn't even have a lockdown! Many assumptions also made over the rate of infection, the fatality rate etc. Basically the same bumpf that was used in the flawed statistical models used by Professor Neil Ferguson.

Finally, if lockdown was so successful in reducing the rate of infection, as Phil_MCR pointed out, why haven't we seen a second wave? Parts of Europe have been open for 4 weeks now!

Imperial College London


Ohhhhh! Sounds threatening
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  #10235  
Old 09.06.2020, 09:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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And so my question is, in Zurich 4+ weeks after "reopening" so to speak, why no spike in new infections here? There have been plenty of those disregarding social distancing and many not wearing masks, but the level of new infections - minimal at best.

https://www.corona-data.ch

Can anyone postulate why the numbers have not spiked in Zurich?
Possibilities: general population health, for the most part compliant behavior, lockdowns of no significance and the declines were coincidental, or the risk for anyone getting this (let alone dying from) while out in the wild were always extremely slim, the real risk factors are things like crowding or similar etc.pp. From the beginning there was no logical reason why Switzerland, bordering on two fairly heavily affected areas with thousands of people crossing in and out of those areas on a daily basis, neither had a significant or somehow hugely worrying spike nor any strains on the healthcare system. There are clearly other factors why some areas had it worse than others, whatever those may be.
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  #10236  
Old 09.06.2020, 09:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Imperial College London


Ohhhhh! Sounds threatening
True in which case surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?
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  #10237  
Old 09.06.2020, 11:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've looked through both these studies and they don't prove anything conclusively and there are many errors. A few of the more obvious ones:

The paper in Nature doesn't make any comparisons between countries that implemented lockdown and countries that didn't. There is also no correlation between lockdown and reduction in infection rate so they use the all encompassing "other social distance".

The Imperial College study says that Sweden's lockdown reduced deaths by 90%, as any reader here knows, Sweden didn't even have a lockdown! Many assumptions also made over the rate of infection, the fatality rate etc. Basically the same bumpf that was used in the flawed statistical models used by Professor Neil Ferguson.

Finally, if lockdown was so successful in reducing the rate of infection, as Phil_MCR pointed out, why haven't we seen a second wave? Parts of Europe have been open for 4 weeks now!
Suffice to say I have every faith in Boris.

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  #10238  
Old 09.06.2020, 11:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Suffice to say I have every faith in Boris.

Attachment 139591
If London goes on lock down and public transport is discontinued - how does the British government inform their flock?
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  #10239  
Old 09.06.2020, 11:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Finally, if lockdown was so successful in reducing the rate of infection, as Phil_MCR pointed out, why haven't we seen a second wave? Parts of Europe have been open for 4 weeks now!

What parts of Europe?? Most of the Western European countries are only now slowly opening up, apart of course from the UK that finally is closing the borders.
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  #10240  
Old 09.06.2020, 12:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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What parts of Europe?? Most of the Western European countries are only now slowly opening up, apart of course from the UK that finally is closing the borders.
Uk is not closing borders, just requiring self isolation. There is zero problem getting a flight in or out of the UK
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